The “independent advisory panel” named yesterday by Alberta’s United Conservative Party Government to look into the “potential economic impacts of secession” illustrates an observation the day before by a prominent Canadian political commentator that too many self-identified federalists are likely to defend Canada on separatist terms.
Writing in The Globe and Mail, columnist Andrew Coyne complained that while there is no shortage of volunteers for the role of Captain Canada, including Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, “the version of federalism they are selling is inimical to the interests of Canada, not to mention unrecognizable to anyone with any knowledge of either Canada or federalism.”
After an examination of misinformation about the Canadian and U.S. constitutions spread by the likes of Premier Smith that should be familiar to readers of this blog, Mr. Coyne concluded the objective of these federalists of convenience “seems less to save Canada from the separatists than to remake Canada on lines they prefer.” The referendum they’re supposedly countering, he added, “is merely an advantageous pretext.”
Less than 24 hours later, the Alberta Government announced in a news release that “the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy has been selected to conduct an independent analysis of the potential economic impacts of secession so that Albertans can make an informed decision.”
“Albertans deserve clear and credible information on the potential impacts of separation,” newly appointed Finance Minister Jason Nixon added piously in a canned talking point. Those impacts, according to the news release, include both costs and savings.
Well, Mr. Nixon’s official comment is probably true enough on its face, but how the hell Albertans are supposed to get that from this particular panel is not so clear. Indeed, it’s hard to believe that the School of Public Policy, for all its obvious flaws, actually selected this panel, since every member is a favourite ideological fellow traveller of the UCP.
Leastways, if this panel was not handpicked by the premier and her staff, they have nothing to complain about with the selection process.
Jack Mintz, chosen to chair of the panel, has been the UCP’s favourite economist since the days the party was led by Jason Kenney. The CBC described him accurately yesterday as “a go-to expert for Alberta conservative governments.” He is a former chair of the School of Public Policy. He is also a charming man, but as the Parkland Institute put it shortly before an NDP government was elected in 2015, Dr. Mintz “is hardly a non-partisan, neutral observer of Alberta’s politics. Rather, in addition to being an advisor to the Alberta PC government, Mintz has a self-interest to advocate for the interests of the oil industry, most notably Imperial Oil, a corporation which Mintz serves as a member of its board of directors.” In 2018, during the NDP government, he infamously wrote in the Financial Post an op-ed headlined “Alberta has better reasons to Albexit than Britain did for Brexit.” Therein, he argued, “Whatever negatives Alberta would face are easily swamped by the positives that would come with separation.”
The other panel members named yesterday are:
Ted Morton, the California-born, Wyoming raised Montana resident who was once Alberta’s finance minister and a Conservative leadership candidate who described himself as “every liberal’s nightmare — a right-winger with a PhD.” While Dr. Morton got a relatively meaningless start in politics in 1998 running as the Reform Party’s “Senator-in-Waiting” candidate in the Klein Government’s fatuous Senate nominee election, his most famous bad idea was the notorious quasi-separatist Firewall Letter, which he signed in 2001 along with a young Stephen Harper and four lesser stars in the right-wing firmament. He has been described in this space as the worst premier Alberta never had. He too has long been associated with the School of Public Policy.
Adam Legge, president of the Business Council of Alberta. Mr. Legge was a member of the Smith Government’s so-called Alberta Next Panel, set up to get Albertans enthused about handing over their retirement savings to the UCP, Making Alberta an Energy Superpower Again and replacing the RCMP with the Party’s own organs of state security. In other words, to soften up the electorate for Firewall-manifesto-style sovereignty association.
Alex Pourbaix, board chair of oilsands giant Cenovus Energy Inc., who, obviously, isn’t going to suggest anything that will particularly upset the oil industry, which as far as separation at least goes is unlikely to be a bad thing.
Janice MacKinnon, the former Saskatchewan NDP finance minister notorious in that province for closing 52 rural hospitals in the late 1990s and best known in Alberta for her role as chair of premier Kenney’s “Blue Ribbon Panel” that called for a full-blown austerity program that would have cut more than $600 million a year from the province’s operating budget, privatized health-care services, ended limits on tuition fees, and declared war with the province’s public sector unions. This plan for destruction was upended by the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic a year later. She is a teacher at the University of Saskatchewan and presumably a resident of that province.
Is there anything like an alternative economic voice on this panel? Not a chance. Not even U of C economist Trevor Tombe, whose service on the Alberta Next Panel may have been too nuanced for Ms. Smith’s taste. About the only missing face from the Usual Suspects that one might have expected to find on a panel like this is Preston Manning’s.
The government, by the way, told the CBC this exercise will cost about $1.5 million – a bargain, one supposes, if it comes in that low.
Will the panel give a meaningful report on the true costs of Alberta separation? Maybe. That probably depends on which way the political winds are blowing for Ms. Smith when the panel issues its report.
Given Ms. Smith’s performance on separation so far, though, we can be confident that no matter how bad the panel’s findings are there will be no forceful denunciation of secession or secessionism.
To return to Mr. Coyne’s observations, it’s more likely a committee like this will “accept all of the premises of secessionism, minus the conclusion to which they inexorably lead.”
NOTE: This column has been updated to include reference to Dr. Mintz’s notorious “Albexit” story in the Financial Post. DJC
As someone who- I forget who – accurately wrote a while ago, Smith is not a separatist, she is something worse.
This? David Harrigan: “Danielle Smith isn’t a separatist. She is, has always been, a destroyer. She was on the Calgary school board. Destroyed it. She had talk radio program. Destroyed it. Leader of Wildrose Party. Destroyed it. Premier of Alberta – she will destroy it. It is what she does, what she is.”
Charlotte Holmes: Danielle The Destroyer. Has a nice ring to it.
Well, at this point Ted Morton must make the case why he’s the greatest talent in his own mind, while Mintz mostly works as a slightly less successful version of Jordan Peterson. Great bunch you got there.
They must sell the secessionist cause as not only completely painless, but everyone gets a $1,000 a day for life.
Now would be a good time for Carney to declare not only federal ownership of all their assets in Canada, but even go so far as to seize those assets if the time should come. Ideally, I think Ottawa should blow up all the federally owned airports, shutter the Coutts border crossing with armed security consultants with shoot-to-kill orders for anyone from Alberta who tries to operate the border.
Massive civil dislocations such as secession require brutal and savage responses, and this must include the immediate arrest of Seppies in Alberta and their removal to black sites for disposal. That means social-media influencers suddenly dropping out of sight — permanently.
If there’s one thing the break-up of Yugoslavia taught us is that everything is on the table and all must be paid for in full. It’s called war, Alberta.
Mintz is a reliable parrot for the alt-right kackistocrats.
A little over the top, Just Me, but you did remind me of something I realized a few days ago. An Edmonton councillor, Aaron Paquatte I believe, pushed City Council to look for ways to shelter Edmonton from all this separation nonsense. From that the idea of Edmonton separating from Alberta was mentioned.
Edmonton separation is a non-starter, in my mind, just because it would leave us an island. That said, Banff and Jasper could very easily separate and join BC, with the current national park boundaries becoming the new boundary for the Alberta Republic.
Edmonton and Northern Alberta boast two sizeable military installations, while Southern Alberta as the benefit of a large NATO training centre at Wainwright and another installation in Calgary. These federal assets represent a considerable presence that can be built on. For one thing, seizing and detaining Seppies will not be a problem. Once local police have been informed by the RCMP and national security authorities to not interfere with their detainment, they will stay away, unless individual officers wish to also be detained and removed to a black site. The black sites can be located anywhere and will be used for the disposal of problem Seppies. Extending the resources of these installations further, they can serve by applying considerable force against Seppie interests and their agents. Personally, I want to see a body count; bloodlessness gets us no where and accomplishes nothing.
Mr. falls asleep in zoom meetings got all the way up on his hind legs to say that ?!
Pure genius from one of Edmontons most performative public servants.
I think the first step would be for Parliament to repeal the 1905 Alberta Act. Make this region part of the Northwest Territories again.
MANTA! What colour should the hat be? DJC
There appears to be this weird theory going around that declares that the Alberta Act sets aside all Treaties. Of course, it doesn’t because Alberta was also created by consent of the Crown. The notion that Alberta was asked to join Confederation, therefore somehow has a special place, is a first-rate lie.
Coyne’s label of federalists of convenience is a good description of the approach of the current UCP leadership. Whether that label also applies to the members of this advisory panel is a good question worth further consideration. They certainly are very in line with the UCP ideologically, so I suspect they will deliver something its leadership will be quite comfortable with.
The only one who seems to be missing from this greatest hits revival act of conservative sort of academics is Manning, who I feel certainly sounds like a federalist of convenience these days as well. Perhaps he has decided he needs to pace himself these days or they wanted someone who more than just often try sound like an academic.
So I share the concern that this panel will not push back too much against the false narratives and misleading victimhood pedalled by the separatists to the disgruntled and the gullible.
In other words a select group of academic fifth columnists are supposed to pretend that they are unbiased in their observations and conclusions when past disclosures have already confirmed both their intent and their desire publicly on numerous occasions.
For example, here are some things that should sound very familiar to both the Albertans and Canadians that have been paying attention:
1. “In 2021 Jack Mintz, Ted Morton and Tom Flanagan, conservative academics from the University of Calgary, are urging Albertans to choose a future that looks like an angry past. . . . Which brings us to the contents of Moment of Truth, a book trying to make the case that because the West produces oil wealth, it deserves a bigger voice in Ottawa. And if it doesn’t get that bigger voice, then it ought to threaten separation. Or it needs to actually separate. Or join the US. Or something.
“In 1980 many Albertans blamed the NEP and Pierre Trudeau for the emerging recession. Forty years later, Moment of Truth argues westerners need to blame the federal government, Pierre Trudeau’s son, Laurentian elites, Indigenous groups opposed to pipelines, Quebeckers opposed to pipelines, environmentalists opposed to pipelines, anyone opposed to pipelines, for the current recession.”
https://albertaviews.ca/moment-truth/
“None of us favour separation as a first option,” the book’s editors write. “But we also see it as a viable last resort if all else fails. It may be that in order to stay in Canada, Alberta must be able and willing to leave it.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/road-ahead-alberta-alienation-moment-of-truth-book-mintz-morton-flanagan-1.5753655
2. “For Ted the emerging politician, however, failure and resentment were rocket fuel for a political career that fed on grievance and resentment.
Sixteen years ago, in March 2008, this magazine published a revealing portrait. Asked about the apparent contradictions in the Morton facade, Tom Flanagan helpfully suggested that his friend was playing a character in the “dramatic production… that we call politics.””
It is the sound and fury of high level public manipulation, management, and narrative control (defining the boundaries of what is publicly acceptable or reasonable thought); where, all of the players are closely related to one another, share the same values, and desire the same outcomes.
So, another $1.5 million spent on Danielle Smith pandering to her base. How much more of this nonsense are severely normal Albertans willing to put up with?
I’m sorry but these people agitating for separatists are not only traitors, they’re numbskulls.
They can claim they want to be a sovereign state. That will last a minute and a half and whether by official naming or not, the US Empire will eat them as the appetizer right before they eyeball the rest of Canada as the main meal. BC will be the vegetables and the rest of Canada as the main course…right before they chow down on Quebec and the east coast as a flaming dessert. That is, if they don’t just jam the entire meal down their throats within minutes of swallowing the appetizer.
If they think they’re going to sit there all happy and smug in their sovereignty with an army the size of a volleyball team as Uncle Sam’s army merrily wanders back and forth over the border to buy pot–they’re deluded. Within a month the American Empire will declare they’re a “security risk” because the arctic is a “security risk” then they’ll just march over the border and head north in pursuit of free ice cubes for the bourbon we’re not buying, anymore. All the while shipping back the stolen oil to fund their war machine.
Someone tell me *why*, in all these supposedly “Canadian” or “Albertan” movements, so many of the founders are Americans.
This is simple. Follow the money. Start charging the people and organizations that are stacking up American cash to promote separatism with sedition, undermining, whatever is on the books. Make the trials, public. Any American corporations/people/organizations caught supporting it get sanctioned and arrested at the border.
This will have little effect on Quebec because they’re just doing their Quebec thing. We kicked out the respected war hero General De Gaulle for encouraging separatism but we won’t kick out that useless, arrogant, greedy git, Hoekstra?
And yes @Just Me, I agree that there should be federal ownership of all resource extraction where some of the profit is saved in a sovereign wealth fund that can keep this country growing and strong for centuries to come by investing in infrastructure, small/medium Canadian owned manufacturing and value-added businesses and funding social services.
Hello DJC and fellow commenters,
The recommendations of this panel are almost a foregone conclusion. Maybe, the chairman of Cenovus Energy will recommend a united Canada without Alberta becoming “sovereign”. The sovereign part may not b beneficial to business. Presumably, he would recommend an independent or sovereign Alberta only if he is confident that such an entity would protect oil and gas corporate profits.
Why would there be a foreign resident on a panel about Alberta? Aren’t Jack Mintz and Janice MacKinnon a little shopworn to be doing this kind of thing, again? Or, maybe like Preston Manning, they are continuously being reincarnated? Money from the public pure is always welcome, I suppose. No, I’m never cynical in case anyone is wondering.
On the contrary sovereignty within Canada is the whole point. It means, as one of the nine referendum questions put it, working with other provinces (hello Scott Moe and Doug Ford) to amend the Constitution to allow a province to opt out of federal programs they don’t like, like the Canada Health Act. And yes, protect oil companies from climate regulations. Smith’s idea of sovereignty within Canada is very good for business.
At first when I saw this UCP panel appointed to assess the costs of Alberta separating from Canada I thought I was reading from the satire publication, The Beaverton. As you say, these folks are synonymous with Alberta’s right wing economic ideology, and perfectly harmonious with Smith’s UCP- but talk about echoes from the past! When I realized it was a for-real story and recognized some of the names: Jack Mintz, Ted Morton, and Janice MacKinnon, I thought, how old are these people now? Aren’t they and their economic and political philosophies from another era? Then I “did my own research”, and yes, they are 76, 77, and 79 years old, and obviously still influential back through the UCP-Wildrose-Reform Party evolution. Maybe that’s why so much of the UCP ideology is still stuck somewhere in Alberta’s past while the world has moved on. I checked out the other two fellows and the one who is CEO of Cenovus is not surprising at all, given Danielle Smith being a lobbyist for O&G and all; and then the other fellow’s bio, the youngest one, he seems up-and-coming and ambitious, head of Alberta’s Business Council. Interesting seeing the association founded with names I recognized as among the wealthiest in Alberta. He’s got an MBA and led business groups and so on, but doesn’t look like he’s ever run a business himself. Some of his quotes reported in the “Business in Calgary” magazine, are words that have come out of Danielle Smith’s mouth, so apparently pretty much in synch. He talks about exploiting our resources and building data centres, getting rid of emission caps, and de-regulation for industry, further lowering of corporate taxes, and blames federal immigration policy for our problems with housing, education, and so on, and that Alberta needs to manage its own immigration. Is there an echo in the room? In summary, I have no doubt this panel will be another digression, a waste of time, and their conclusions can already be predicted. What else is new?
Andrew Coyne is one of an increasingly endangered species: an articulate, rational, reasonable conservative. While I often disagree with him, I rarely want to throw tomatoes at my TV when I see him on the telly.
I only wish I could read his column … but it’s behind the G&M’s paywall, and I refuse to contribute to the G&M’s bottom line by subscribing, just so I can read their columnists. Oh, well … *sigh*
Jerry: For the reasons you cite, I don’t like to provide links to Globe stories. However, it is sometimes necessary when writing a blog like this, especially since the Globe is the only commercial news source consistently providing news coverage of the Smith Government’s many scandals. DJC
Along with AlbertaPolitics, a non-commercial news source.
You already contribute to the Globe and Mail if you pay municipal and/or provincial taxes. The print version can be accessed through your public library online from home or on paper in the library if you possess a (free) library card. Or you may request temporary access in any library in the province if travelling outside your municipality.
Please do not inform your UCP MLA of this service! Begging of you, pretty please.
Download pressreader and get the Globe through your library
“Alex Pourbaix, board chair of oilsands giant Cenovus Energy Inc., who, obviously, isn’t going to suggest anything that will particularly upset the oil industry, which as far as separation at least goes is unlikely to be a bad thing.”
Question: What is the O&G industry’s involvement in Alberta’s separatist movement?
To what extent has the O&G industry wielded the threat of separatism, and encouraged Premier Smith to do likewise, to extract concessions from Ottawa? In particular, to force the federal government to dismantle its climate policy framework and repeal environmental laws and protections?
Having now achieved much of what it wanted, is the O&G industry now dialling back its support for separatism, afraid that it will destabilize the economy?
Does the largely foreign owned O&G industry really care whether or not it destabilizes Alberta’s economy? Is the O&G industry not perfectly happy to destabilize Canada and threaten a national unity crisis to achieve its aims?
Politically, Alberta’s O&G industry is not a monolith. Are small O&G producers and junior companies more favorably disposed towards separatism than the oilsands giants?
We know that the O&G lobby supported the “Freedom Convoy”, and its forceful assault on law and order in Ottawa and across Canada. The same Convoy types were key players in prior energy protests and campaigns, and now play key roles in Alberta’s separatist movement.
And yet we read, in the pages of The Tyee, that “Smith has also been under ‘tremendous pressure’ from business groups, including the powerful Calgary Chamber of Commerce, which represents major oil and gas corporations.
“In a recent news release, the chamber said Calgary’s business community had consistently raised concerns about the referendum ‘because of the profound economic uncertainty and damage it will inflict on the province.'”
Charles Rusnell: “Why Hasn’t Alberta Been Calculating the Cost of Separation?” (The Tyee, 5 Jun 2026)
https://thetyee.ca/News/2026/06/05/Alberta-Cost-Separation/
Where does the O&G really stand?
One thing’s for sure. The O&G mafia is not a force for good in Alberta’s democracy, Canadian unity, and certainly not the environment.
If the O&G lobby is our friend, we don’t need enemies.
*Essential reading:
1) “The oil industry’s Frankenstein” (2022)
“Amid the cacophony of conspiracies, claims, and controversies emanating from Canada’s Freedom Convoy in February, one issue was decidedly muted: energy. While energy issues had been the driving force behind previous right-wing protests in Canada, it was barely visible during the weeks-long occupation of the nation’s capital. Indeed, if it wasn’t for the infamous court artist rendering of Convoy organizer Tamara Lich in her Canada Action-branded ‘I love O&G’ sweater, the vast majority of Canadians would be unaware of the extensive links between the Freedom Convoy and what has been described as ‘petro-populism.’
“If on the surface the links between energy and the anti-lockdown politics of the Freedom Convoy seemed scant, below the surface they were extensive. The organization, tactics, networks, and funding for the Convoy didn’t spring from nowhere. In fact, they were nurtured and cultivated through past protests and campaigns centred on energy issues. In the wake of the Convoy and the attention on its organizers, we have learned that many of these organizers became radicalized and honed their strategies and tactics via the contentious energy politics and protests in western Canada. Indeed, Freedom Convoy organizers and advocates like Tamara Lich, Pat King, James Bauder, Glen Carritt, and Mark Friesen all cut their teeth in the anti-carbon tax and anti-immigration activism of the Yellow Vests movement that grew in 2018 and the closely aligned United We Roll convoy that would lead a pro-oil truck cavalcade to Ottawa in February of 2019.
“… when one investigates the origins of these earlier manifestations of right-wing protest, one discovers that they have a very curious midwife: the Canadian oil industry.”
https://briarpatchmagazine.com/articles/view/the-oil-industrys-frankenstein
2) “The Carbon Convoy: The Climate Emergency Fueling the Far Right’s Big Rigs” (2022)
https://www.energyhumanities.ca/news/the-carbon-convoy-the-climate-emergency-fueling-the-far-rights-big-rigs
3) Linda McQuaig: “Big Oil nurtured ‘petro-populists;’ now they’re driving separatist cause” (May 28, 2026)
https://rabble.ca/columnists/appeasing-alberta-wont-work/
Something worse. Since we are trying to speak truth out loud… Look up your own definitions , but in looking up Traitor, Betrayer came up as similar… There is even a feminine form of traitor: Traitress Danny does have a bit of a ring to it, albeit dark
Danielle Smith is not the Rene Levesque of Alberta, she’s the Robert Bourassa – the “anti-separatist” who uses the political leverage created by the separatist movement to try to extract otherwise indefensible concessions from the federal government.
Perhaps this ‘assumption of economists’ will dive back into Alberta history and resurrect Bible Bill Aberhart’s hobby horse – Social Credit – as part of their report on financial aspects of separatism. Vote for secession and you’ll get a guaranteed $25 a month from the government to stimulate a free economy. Adjusted for inflation, of course. There are definite parallels between Aberhart’s time in office and the current UCP government. Wacky financial theories. Multiple lawsuits challenging legislation, which the government always lost. Even an attempt to recall Aberhart using his own recall legislation. His government retroactively repealed the law in order to protect his seat. Weekly radio programs starring the premier. Endless fights with Ottawa. As baseball great Yogi Berra put it – It’s like deja vu all over again!
Let’s remember that Ernest Manning was Aberhart’s acolyte. Is Preston trying yet again to live up to his dad’s expectations by re-enacting failed battles? Poor Preston. Such a disappointment. Never got elected premier. And now overlooked for another lucrative government appointment.
Hippie: Mr. Manning was once Alberta’s Dauphin. I believe he never got over the disappointment of learning Alberta had moved on and that he would never get to be Manning Jong Il to Manning Il Sung. Of all the “woke liberals” he hates, the one he hates the most must be Peter Lougheed. DJC
It is a testament to our Alberta political culture that arguments have been narrowed to economic costs and benefits. There are many other costs and benefits to being a part of this confederation. These are seldom raised and unlikely to be taken up in this costly exercise.
In my opinion, this panel of ‘experts’ has the same flavour as the “how much Ottawa owes Alberta in CPP funds”; all the while wasting taxpayers money.
I find it truly amazing that the seppies and the perpetually disgruntled can go on and on about the overreach of the ‘liberal elites’ stealing their tax dollars, but are quite content to let the UCP fleece them every year. For a group that raise their brand of beef and cowboy hats, they sure act like sheep being herded into the barn for shearing. So whom exactly are the “sheeple” ?
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I have a question that been kicking around in the old Commodore for awhile >>> W5 are the benefits of the O&G supporting the seppies?
Production has increased steadily over the last number of years, so the bottom line can’t be blamed, no matter what Pablum Pete says.
I feel that there is another story going on in the background on who is worried about losing what? Another day, another dilemma.
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Sidebar— re: data Centres
Watched a clip of ‘Melon’ saying he’s going to be building data centres in space, because they can be cooled there at no cost. If so, is the big push for building the massive centres in Alberta already redundant?
As for the CPP split “share”
There wouldn’t be one. At all. Not a penny.
At the point of separation, Alberta stops paying into it. Then, whoever was working anywhere in Canada *before* the separation, on their 65th birthday would start collecting their share. Period.
That’s how pensions work. Alberta’s gov’t wanting it in cash means they’re attempting to steal it. Otherwise, they’d want their citizens to obtain their fair share, no matter where they worked in Canada previous to retirement.
If I work in another country and pay into their pension, then when I retire they send my share. Same thing for people who work in Canada and retire as ex pats.
How is it that Albertans don’t know this?
Just like her pal Ralph Klein she has no idea on how to be a premier and creates these panels to try to show her. If she doesn’t like their findings she just ignores them. It was a previous MLA who told me that under Klein they were being paid $780. a day for every one of their gatherings and even though some never bothered to attend the gathering they were still paid, that’s how stupid this farce had become. Wasting taxpayers money is their mandate isn’t it?
Alan K. Spiller: That’s how it goes with Danielle Smith and the UCP.
Hoo boy I didn’t realize that Mintz was on the board of Imperial. Imperial is of course owned by ExxonMobil, on of the dozens of companies spun off from but still maintained by the standard oil trust (Rockefellers).
I’ll let you make the connection but having both that and the school of public policy on your resume is CERTAINLY some kind of yankee bingo.
STANDARD OIL was also represented by the famous Sullivan and Cromwell, a very famously spooked up law firm
That was instrumental in both protecting American investments in Nazi germany during the war, but establishing the CIA after it.
Just saying, if it was my country, I might be watching this panel with great interest, the administration south of the 49 being what it is…..
This panel does nothing to benefit Albertans. It’s another way for friends of the UCP to line their pockets.