It was clear the instant results from the first million votes counted in Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s divisive separation referendum flooded in minutes after 11 o’clock last night that the separatist campaign to leave Canada was going down to a definitive defeat.
The vote split as counting continued just after midnight: 76.6 per cent of about 1.3 million votes to remain; 23.4 per cent to hold a binding separation referendum.
How definitive the final result is may not be obvious for a few hours, and there will be no official result until Oct. 29, but it’s safe to say Albertans have not come remotely close to endorsing the idea of holding a binding referendum on the province leaving Canada, and the sentiment to remain Canadian was particularly powerful in the province’s two largest cites.
The biggest loser? Danielle Smith, probably.
Her erstwhile separatist allies are furious at her for what they view with some justice as a profound betrayal. Alberta’s federalist majority is outraged at the impact of the divisive and harmful referendum and its noxious nine additional questions, all of which her government drafted.
Her referendum strategy for increasing Alberta sovereignty appears to be in tatters.
Voting and government-mandated hand counting, overseen by the undermanned and under-funded Elections Alberta agency, was a gong show afflicted by late openings, ballot shortages, and lineups in some locations that kept polling places open long after their scheduled closing hour. The resulting delay in releasing the preliminary results will harm the credibility of the vote, but given the percentages, not enough to change anything.
The biggest winner? Likely New Democratic Party Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi.
Despite his low-energy leadership of the party he inherited from former NDP premier Rachel Notley in June 2024, Mr. Nenshi could well surf into power in the wake of widespread disgust with high-risk referendum strategy implemented by Ms. Smith and her separatist-dominated United Conservative Party at a time when Canada is under economic and ideological attack by the Trump Administration in the United States.
Recent polls suggest the NDP was creeping into the lead before the referendum. The latest one indicates it may have arrived.
As for the UCP itself, the U may stand for United, but it is a Disunited Conservative Party as of right now.
Ms. Smith may try to heal the wounds she has inflicted on her own party, but it’s difficult to imagine how the UCP – always a Frankenparty that stitched together separatists, federalists, social conservatives, market fundamentalists and traditional economic pragmatists, and lately a considerable number of MAGA nuts – can hold together for long. As the Good Book says, a House Divided against itself cannot stand.
Even before the vote yesterday, it was clear many secessionist leaders were openly calling on social media for a separatist takeover of the UCP and removal of Ms. Smith as leader, just as they dumped Jason Kenney before her. But if they succeed, who will replace her? The UCP leadership talent pool is shallow.
Nor, according to the first results last night, were the nine referendum questions at the heart of Ms. Smith’s sovereignty-association strategy faring particularly well. Her five questions designed to promote a narrative scapegoating immigrants for Alberta’s problems, were leading, but in most cases not by much.
Three of the four constitutional questions designed to keep the UCP’s fight with Ottawa at a boil, a strategy that worked so well during a Trudeau Government, appeared to be going down to defeat, although it is too soon to declare that a fait accompli. Only the plea to abolish the unelected Senate – a constitutional non-starter – was leading by a hair.
If a significant number of the nine questions Ms. Smith’s government spent $4 million of our own money to promote indeed falter, the premier’s immediate resignation would not be an unreasonable response. Given Ms. Smith’s personality, that seems unlikely, though.
But with the UCP’s annual general meeting set to open on Nov. 27, the party has less than six weeks to pick a lane!
If the party cracks open then, the nine noxious questions won’t matter regardless what their final votes are. If anyone’s got an old Wildrose Party sign in their garage, someone will probably be happy to come and pick it up.
As for the separatists, they will declare a moral victory and remind everyone that they collected something like a quarter of a vote – albeit for a question on which they campaigned to have us merely “send a message to Ottawa.” They will vow this fight isn’t over till its over.
And maybe it isn’t. But their leaders – including the self-appointed U.S.-assimilation negotiating team that talked to someone in Washington – will have to either take over the UCP or form a new political party. Either way, they’ll have to run for office, won’t they? How do you think that’ll work out?
Given what we know right now, it sure looks as if Danielle Smith’s dream Alberta can become Canada’s sovereign friend with benefits is dying. That’s not a pity.
It is somewhat comforting that question 10 landed strongly in favour of having Albeta remain at part of Canada.
It is also somewhat alarming that the other nine questions were not defeated. Non-Albertans (whomever they might end up being identified as being) should be worried.