Tomorrow is by-election day in Calgary-Shaw. Voters in that riding in the city’s far south will have an opportunity not just to spank the United Conservative Party of Premier Danielle Smith for its devotion to private health care, open-pit coal mining, AI data centres and questionable ethics, but to send a message to Donald Trump in Washington and his MAGAfied Alberta separatist allies about their efforts to break up Canada.
Calgary-Shaw voters can do that by electing the Kyle Campbell, the candidate for the Opposition NDP, the only party in the contest with both an unambiguously pro-Canadian platform and a chance of winning.
Cabinet ministers from the governing United Conservative Party, which is nowadays dominated by Alberta separatists, have been flooding into the riding to ensure that doesn’t happen. And UCP candidate Mike Derry, despite being neither the party’s preferred choice nor a moderate conservative with broad appeal to voters, is favored to win just the same.
After all, since its creation in the 1986 boundary redistribution, Calgary-Shaw has only once failed to elect a Conservative. That was in 2015, the year of the Orange Wave that saw an NDP majority government under Rachel Notley elected. Former Calgary-Shaw MLA and UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, whose resignation took effect on May 15, won with commanding leads in the general elections of 2019 and 2023.
Nevertheless, Mr. Derry’s candidacy comes with baggage – in particular, long association with a number of notorious far-right figures who once dwelt on the fringes of Alberta politics but under the UCP have been creeping toward the centre. His LinkedIn résumé indicates he is a “talent management systems and process consultant” and an immigration adviser.
Mr. Campbell is an employee benefits manager with a Calgary-based financial services company. He lives in the riding. Moreover, the NDP posted big gains in the riding in the 2023 election, although not enough to overcome Ms. Schulz. Still, either party’s candidate could win tomorrow.
One would think Premier Smith’s paradoxical devotion to ensuring a chaotic and divisive separation referendum takes place on Oct. 19 while claiming to hope Alberta remains in Canada would be a potent issue in the minds of Calgary-Shaw voters. Provincial polls, nevertheless, suggest the UCP maintains its lead.
But if you expect Ms. Smith to campaign openly for a united Canada now or in the lead-up to the referendum, as NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi is able to do, she is “too trapped by the separatists in her UCP and her caucus,” as Postmedia political columnist Don Braid explained the premier’s dilemma in a column on Friday. This assumes, of course, that Ms. Smith is not in fact a covert supporter of separation.
“The most federalists can expect is Smith’s personal promise to vote against leaving Canada,” Mr. Braid wrote. “But cheerleading? Real passion for Canada? Bows to the greatness of this incredible country? Full-throated praise for Ottawa’s many policy reversals in Alberta’s favour? Unlikely. The premier is stuck in her web of ambiguity.”
This prompted a nearly hysterical response by Premier Smith’s chief of staff, a frequent visitor to the social media hellsite previously known as Twitter. “Absolute garbage column,” Rob Anderson snarled.
“The problem with lefties like Nenshi, Braid and (Forever Canadian campaign leader and former Conservative deputy premier Thomas) Lukaszuk is they talk a big game about national unity, but they do the square root of jack squat to help acknowledge and address the grievances underlying the problems that have alienated so many Albertans,” Mr. Anderson barked. “And then they vilify the one who is. Predictable, Hypocritical and Pathetic …”
Since Mr. Anderson is one of the authors of the separatist “Free Alberta Strategy,” which Ms. Smith seems to have been following closely throughout her tenure as premier, one can safely assume the he understands Mr. Braid pretty well nailed the inherent contradiction in Premier Smith’s position.
Neither Mr. Braid nor Mr. Lukaszuk can be described as Lefties, by the way. Mr. Nenshi only qualifies ex officio, one might say, now that the Alberta NDP has become in effect a progressive conservative party. Mr. Nenshi is also a former mayor of Calgary, which from the UCP perspective is apparently an automatic indicator of wokeness, as the city’s current conservative mayor has discovered.
Whether or not it turns out to be a referendum on the referendum, it is inevitable that this by-election will be seen as a test for both Ms. Smith and Mr. Nenshi, lending it a zero-sum quality with a clear winner and loser that is bound to have future repercussions for the two leaders.
If the NDP’s Mr. Campbell wins, the widespread perception of Mr. Nenshi as passive, disengaged and nowhere-to-be-seen will likely change. If the NDP candidate loses, restive party members are sure to ask unhappily how any leader could do badly against a government widely seen as corrupt, incompetent, beholden to a lunatic MAGA fringe, and tied to policies unpopular with significant parts of its own base.
As political commentator Dave Cournoyer summarized the NDP leader’s situation yesterday, “Nenshi’s ability to increase the NDP’s support in Calgary, even in likely UCP-voting ridings like Calgary-Shaw, will determine whether the opposition party could have path to victory in the next election. It will also be an indicator of whether the broad voter coalition built by former leader Rachel Notley in the 2023 election has sustained itself since the former leader stepped down two years ago.”
If Mr. Derry loses, Premier Smith’s success holding together a voting coalition of traditional conservatives and MAGA-influenced separatists will be in doubt. A loss could very well could open the door to palace-coup attempts and new vote-splitting right-wing parties, an Alberta tradition that for the past few years the UCP has been able to keep in check.
Remember too that the tradition of skidding leaders who threaten the party’s domination of Alberta politics remains embedded in the UCP’s political DNA. If for any reason Ms. Smith starts to look like a loser, ever a potential one, her days will be numbered.
We await tomorrow’s results with … interest.
NOTE: To the other candidates in the riding – Independent Rolly Ashdown, Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph and Liberal John Roggeveen – my apologies for paying so little attention to your campaigns. You are all, I am sure, in it for honourable reasons. Alas, aside from a small potential for vote-splitting, this time it’s hard to see how any of you can be significant players. DJC
CORRECTION: Ms. Schulz’s resignation took effect on May 15. An incorrect date appeared in an earlier version of this story.
I’m sure the loyal citizens of south MAGAland will make their UCP masters proud, again.
It’s obvious that this is a left wing NDP publication supported by the Unions. These are the Takers in the Alberta society, TAX & SPEND is there MOTTO & the Unions love it because they get a Bigger share of Taxpayer Dollars. Alberta Has the Lowest Taxes, NO PST, Highest Average Incomes, Highest Educated Population, the Youngest Population of all Provinces along with the only growing Population in Canada and the Best Economy and the Largest Job Creator in Canada, BUT THESE LEFTEST WANT ALBERTA TO BE LIKE ALL THE FAILED PROVINCES, OMG. NDP had 4 Years, Historic Devicits and DEBT, took a $20 Billion Alberta Debt and gave Albertans a $80 Billion Debt in 4 Years, amazing how that is ignored, but NDP say OIL Pricing, well 2019 & 2020 were the 2 Worst Years for OIL this century!
You seem like a badly-programmed bot or a badly-programmed MAGAt. My guess is the latter, due to the CAPs and speling. Either way, you need a data update.
Brad Den: This is a blog, and unions, nor the NDP fund it. These phony Conservatives and Reformers destroyed the great things that Peter Lougheed intended for us to have. Cheated us out of Peter Lougheed’s oil and tax rates, losing a combined $725 billion, left us with a $320 billion orphan well mess, did other very pricey boondoogles, costing billions of dollars, left public education, public healthcare, social services, and infrastructure in a sorrid state, and caused us to have the highest utility costs in Canada. Our infrastructure repair bill from these phony Conservatives and Reformers is at least $40 billion. You are way off.
“..they do the square root of jack squat..” Do they stay awake at night conjuring up such eloquence?
Tom: Some of them, I strongly suspect, only come out at night. DJC
Sooner or later, I suspect Mr. Nenshi will be defenestrated through the Overton Window he so clearly worships.
Rob Anderson uses the word leftie like his hero, Donald J Trump uses the word communist. By that he means everyone to the left of Hitler. How that includes the former deputy Premier of the Alberta PCs you would have to ask him. Surely he remembers, and thus, it is yet another example of him being an unscrupulous liar, ineffective debater, failed parliamentarian, and a poor loser who cannot even take the slightest bit of criticism of their shallow, ideologically rigid ideas. A smarter person would realize that the deranged occupant of the gilded White House is going to die, and soon. When that happens the tattered coalition of grifters incels and losers he’s emboldened WILL be cast to the wind. There will be a virtual bloodbath of trump aligned politicians the world over. People will be lining up to claim they never knew trump, they never supported him, they think he’s a madman. People are already doing it. Alberta maga is just too low information and too bigoted to notice.
Anyway have fun playing on Twitter Rob, if you can’t pull this “sEpArAtIoN” scheme off it will be the end of your career at best, who knows could be the end of your freedom too, traitor.
The Grifter-Yokels are fascists. There is no one to their right. The demise of the Orange Grifter is not going to precipitate any such obliteration of the proliferation of right-wing demagogues. Something worse is coming.
David I have the highest regard for you and your tireless work, I respect Mr.Lukaszuk, I have known and admired Don Braid for more than half a century. Rob Anderson is what he is.
I am prepared to roll the dice and see what happens in Calgary. If the UCP win, the future of Alberta will be bleak for the remainder of my lifetime. The results of the referendum will not make any difference, but knowing where Calgarians stand will make a huge difference because I have so many friends and relatives there; it will affect me deeply and personally. I will not, however, concede a UCP defeat as a Nenshi victory. At least I will close the last chapter in peace with a glimmer of hope.
I think I have said it all. “Les jeux sont faits.”
Don Braid has always been terrible. It’s just that the Grifter-Yokels are a new level of distilled superstition, greed and corruption.
I have difficulty deciphering your drivel, so I will ignore it. I know Don Braid, always able to decipher whether we agree or not, and he is a luminary for “journalism” to which he has dedicated a lifetime. Reflect on your own lifetime contribution.
Bleak, HUH!! you want Bleak look at every other Province in Canada and are Federal Government, the Indebted Liberals. Bleak is the Lowesy Debt in Canada, Bleak is the Lowest Taxes, Bleak is NO PST, Bleak is Calgary & Edmonton are the Least expensive major cities in Canada, Bleak is being the Largest Job Creator in Canada and the only growing Population. The Hate for Alberta and ignoring the success of this Province is so Unrationable, I guess it just gffoes to show the Education system in Canada is Failing proding people with ZERO ECONOMIC Literacy!
Sorry, not worthy of a response, too bleak!
Yes, the education system in this country is clearly failing, particularly in the teaching of the English language, since many people are obviously unfamiliar with proper spelling and grammar. And don’t get me started on the Use of Random Capitalization as a lame attempt to make a Point. The resulting Drivel is almost Unreadable! Sadly, it seems that these poorly educated people, or graduates of the UCP curriculum as the case may be, are the ones who form their (or there, or they’re, it’s all so confusing, damn Trudeau and Notley) political opinions based on social media posts and emotion instead of critical thinking but yet somehow they’re allowed to vote. It’s Unfair! It’s Predictable, Hypocritical and Pathetic! It’s also Bleak.
I don’t have any idea of what this by election outcome will be and normally I would agree it something like it could set the tone for the run up to the next provincial election.
However, of course we are not in normal times and there are two other big shoes to drop soon. One is the outcome of the ongoing trade conflict with the US, in which Smith is already somewhat offside with the rest of Canada. This next shoe could fall later in September, but given the unpredictable US leader it could also happen sooner or later.
The other perhaps even bigger and more predictable shoe is the the upcoming referendum. If the polls are right and do not change much, the separatists who Smith has made pains to try keep their support, are going to lose. If that happens, they are not going to be happy and will be looking for someone to blame. I feel that could be the point where they really turn on Smith.
Regardless of the outcome, this by election may turn out to be the least of Smith’s problems, which is probably a big reason why she didn’t delay longer in calling it.
Rob Anderson is an overpaid, propaganda mouthpiece of Danielle Smith. Nothing more. He has no credibility. What he is bragging about for UCP accomplishments are exaggerations and lies. If there is voter apathy in this by-election, that isn’t a good thing. There is enough anger towards the UCP, and Danielle Smith, because of all their missteps, so if people get engaged in the riding of Calgary Shaw, it will show the UCP and Danielle Smith a message. It can’t continue with the UCP.
The people of Calgary Shaw have an opportunity to send a message to the Trump elites in Danielle Smith’s caucus today. Let them know that you reject the premise of separation.
Meanwhile, Danielle Smith has taken this pivotal moment to fly off to Toronto for a couple of days. “Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego?” Probably looking for a gold cat. Surely someone in the crowd of rich corporate investors at the gathering she’s attending has one.
Election tracker says too close to call. https://albertaelections.com/riding/calgary-shaw
Roger: It all comes down to GOTV. DJC
DC: “If the NDP’s Mr. Campbell wins, the widespread perception of Mr. Nenshi as passive, disengaged and nowhere-to-be-seen will likely change. If the NDP candidate loses, restive party members are sure to ask unhappily how any leader could do badly against a government widely seen as corrupt, incompetent, beholden to a lunatic MAGA fringe, and tied to policies unpopular with significant parts of its own base.”
Under Nenshi, the NDP continues to lag badly. Vital signs weak and ebbing.
NDP supporters alarmed about their party’s prospects should hope that Campbell loses badly. Nenshi is certain to lead the NDP to defeat in the next election. Just over a year away.
If the NDP is to have a hope, Nenshi must swallow his ego, read the writing on the wall, and announce his speedy retirement.
The NDP needs a charismatic young leader full of fire, and that is not Nenshi.
For whatever reason, Nenshi has lost his mojo. If the NDP does not sacrifice Nenshi, they will lose the election. No matter what Smith does.
Nenshi can do the right thing now, or wait until after the election.
GP: At the risk of sounding a lot like you, there is a strong stream in the Old NDP (those who were New Democrats before it was fashionable) that prefers a “moral victory” to a political one. That is to say, they like to lose and be self-righteous about why. This is evident even in provinces where the NDP has proved it can win with the right leadership. Readers will recall that John Horgan was chosen almost as an afterthought because no one else from among the usual suspects was available. These New Democrats will be delighted to be led to defeat by Mr. Nenshi. As for the new members who flocked to the NDP during and after Rachel Notey’s leadership, many of them came because they saw the need for an alternative to the horrible policies of the UCP and the NDP offered the best opportunity to remedy the situation. They will leave as quickly as they came if the party reverts to form. DJC
I am all for principles. Whose principles is Nenshi upholding? He’s not even NDP. He’s a Liberal. I.e., no apparent principles or vision.
Why did Nenshi want to be leader of the NDP? Why is he even in politics? He demonstrates no resolve or purpose. He’s just in the way.
I do not advise the NDP to sell its soul for votes. What does that get us? PC-lite? A generic centrist party with no vision chasing the UCP to the right is hardly inspiring.
Alberta needs a strong, progressive voice. A sensible, pragmatic, values-based, science-based, principled opposition to the UCP’s insane policies.
A healthy democracy needs a diversity of views. Politicians who stand up for what they believe in. Progressive politicians who understand that their job is to go out there and actively sell progressive policy to Albertans. Not sit back passively and wait for Albertans to come to them.
That’s not what Nenshi’s version of the NDP is offering. (Nor the Notley edition, come to think of it.) The NDP’s shift to the right was a political blunder. Voters who base their vote on pipelines will just vote for the real pipeline party. The NDP alienated its progressive supporters (taking their votes for granted) without inspiring semi-mythical centrist Albertans to replace them.
That the NDP have done as well as they have in recent elections is largely due to Albertans’ reaction against the UCP. Not because the NDP are an inspiration — or have anything new to offer.
Whatever Nenshi’s vision may be, it fails to inspire even its author, much less voters. Never have I seen a party leader so listless and lethargic. I am willing to bet that half of Albertans could not name the leader of the Opposition.
Centrists in NDP clothing will not take the NDP to the promised land. Nenshi represents a detour.
Nenshi is a liability and he must go.
-“Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi is missing in action as Danielle Smith continues to dominate” (Globe and Mail, Dec 21, 2024)
-“Naheed Nenshi needs to get his elbows up” (CNO, March 21, 2025)
-“NDP still waiting for Nenshi wave: poll shows party farther behind UCP with new leader” (CBC, May 29, 2025)
-“NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi is seriously underperforming” (Alberta Politics, 31-May-25)
-“Lorne Gunter: Alberta NDP failing to capitalize on the UCP’s weaknesses” (EJ, Feb 06, 2026)
-Max Fawcett: “Naheed Nenshi needs to step up — or step down” (CNO, 23-Feb-2026)
I was in favor of Nenshi, but am sadly disappointed. My choice now is Rakhi Pancholi. She came second in the election.
Geoffrey Pounder: The Alberta NDP can get any leader they want to. It doesn’t matter, because the media will still continue to lie about them, when they do mention them, or they will ignore them the other times, while supporting the UCP and Danielle Smith. As I recall, you were reading and commenting on this blog for many years. Three years ago, prior to the provincial election in Alberta, a columnist for Postmedia was publishing lies about Rachel Notley and the NDP, which went into Postmedia newspapers. That was a factor in Rachel Notley and the NDP being defeated by the UCP and Danielle Smith. The problem isn’t Naheed Nenshi. It’s the media who lies about him, when they do acknowledge him and the NDP. Even if the Alberta NDP had a different leader, would it make a difference? The answer is no, because the media will continue to lie about them, ignore them at other times, and continue to let the UCP and Danielle Smith go unchecked for their epic boondoogles, and major missteps. If Naheed Nenshi found a cure for some debilitating disease, the media wouldn’t even care. Their motto would still be Naheed Nenshi and the Alberta PCs are bad, the UCP and Danielle Smith are good.
Anonymous: I don’t like editing your comments, as I have rather heavily in this case, and I fundamentally agree with the point you have made about a particular journalist and I believe it was a fair. However, I am already facing one frivolous lawsuit and I do feel these things should be contended with one at a time. Just because you have a good case doesn’t mean I can’t be sued for letting you make it, and it doesn’t mean it will either be cheap or quick to deal with the matter. I personally moderate all comments on this blog and I do catch and delete repeated references to certain people, and will continue to do so. DJC
David Climenhaga: I don’t want you to get sued. That isn’t my intention. I can still be generic, and state the obvious, without mentioning any names. The media still doesn’t give the proper acknowledgement to the NDP in Alberta. They don’t do it to other political parties, such as the Alberta Party. Just an observation.
With a little hope it would be good if those jackass oil loving MAGA Calgarians would wake up and sent the UCP a big message by electing anyone but UCP. Sadly there are too many U-ALLS living in Calgary that are US wanna a be types. They want to push US stuff here but are too chicken to go to south of the line to face the reality of MAGA Trump. It would be terrific to see them toss her as a result of Smith getting stuck between the competing factions and not being able to wiggle her way out.
Question: What if I refuse Alberta citizenship and choose to maintain my Canadian citizenship?
Roger: This is an excellent question that cannot be fully answered. Too many variables. First, Alberta could and probably would deport you. They might imprison or kill you. That would be foolish, of course, but who is to say separatists are not fools? We know what Canada’s response to such a thing was in the 19th Century. Whether or not that would give Alberta separatists pause is unknown. What Canada might do is harder to guess. Canada allows dual citizenship now, but it would have the legal option to no longer permit it and make dual citizens choose, or to specifically ban it in the case of Canadian citizens who choose to become Alberta citizens. (But, The Charter, some separatist is bound to say. Well, remember the Notwithstanding Clause, which you so love, I would respond.) Canada might also deem it beneficial to have a large number of loyal Canadians living in disloyal Alberta, for obvious reasons, so it’s hard to know what they would do. Whatever it is, it’s said here, it’s unlikely to be cheerful cooperation as suggested by Keith Wilson’s work of fiction. DJC
DJC. Thanks for the considered reply. As you say, it’s complicated.
I’ll choose option D, none of the above. Let’s see what a unique relationship with the EU could bring. If Canadian citizens could work and live in EU member countries and maybe the Schengen, count me in. It’s not my choice for those *delete* to mess up my life, but un Canadien errant, jamais 51. Time is running out.
Woo-hoo, Kyle Campbell won by 582 votes unofficially. Victory!