Modest success of the Progressive Tory Party candidate in Calgary-Shaw may be bad omen for UCP

On the day of the Calgary-Shaw by-election, a photo began to appear on social media of United Conservative Party candidate Mike Derry’s campaign manager, Craig Chandler, planting signs begging Conservatives not to split their vote in the riding. 

“Don’t split the vote! Vote UCP!” urged the message, which showed up close to official signs encouraging voters to support Kyle Joseph of the Progressive Tory Party founded by Airdrie-Cochrane MLA and former UCP cabinet minister Peter Guthrie. 

“Here’s the UCP’s campaign manager for Calgary-Shaw putting up unofficial ‘Don’t split the vote’ signs right beside ours,” Mr. Guthrie complained in an election-day post accompanying one copy of the photo. “It’s cynical politics: asking people to vote out of fear rather than for something they believe in. Don’t reward this behaviour. Vote for integrity, accountability and responsible government. Vote Tory.”

Nearly 1,000 voters did. So, regardless of the placement of the signs, Mr. Chandler’s fears appear to have been justified as far as the UCP was concerned. At least, many of Mr. Joseph’s votes were certainly likely cast by electors who in more normal times would have instinctively voted for the UCP because it has the word “Conservative” in its name.

When Elections Alberta published the unofficial results of the by-election in the historically conservative-voting riding late Tuesday night, 582 votes separated Mr. Derry from the winner, the Alberta NDP’s Kyle Campbell, so a strong case can certainly be made that what Mr. Chandler feared is precisely what happened. 

Whether all 978 PTP voters would have cast a ballot for the UCP this year in the absence of Mr. Joseph and the PTP is another matter, given the governing party’s shenanigans, in particular Premier Danielle Smith’s key role as an enabler of the campaign to break up Canada, not to mention Mr. Derry’s obvious weaknesses as a candidate.

As political commentator Dave Cournoyer observed in his Substack on election night, “It is impossible not to interpret the Calgary-Shaw by-election results as a backlash by Calgary voters against Premier Danielle Smith’s Alberta separation referendum. … Smith’s enthusiastic tolerance of the separatists in her party has now become an electoral liability that should concern Calgary’s UCP MLAs about their own political futures.”

For that reason, the PTP’s modest but significant showing on Sept. 14 means it can go into the runup for the next provincial election with renewed credibility – some of which the UCP seemed to have squelched with its efforts to keep Mr. Guthrie from using the Progressive Conservative name he wanted for his new party and to woo Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair back to the UCP backbenches after a brief flirtation with the rebel conservative party. 

It must also be noted that a similar argument about Alberta Liberal Leader John Roggeveen’s 602 votes costing the NDP might have been made had Mr. Campbell not done so well. I’m not so sure of that, though. Historically in Western Canada, NDP voters have often found it easier to break toward Conservatives than toward Liberals. I’m more inclined to see Mr. Roggeveen’s minor success as a kind of Carney bounce, likely temporary.

For that reason, former Alberta NDP leader Brian Mason warned me yesterday, “it’s likely that the Tory vote takes away NDP support as much as, or more, than UCP votes.” 

Be that as it may, the PTP’s appearance as a blip on the radar now may mean more fund-raising potential to run campaigns in more ridings later, as well as a serious counter effort by the UCP to eliminate Mr. Guthrie’s threat in his own riding. 

Regardless of how that works out, Premier Smith has to know now that she will go into the next general election with a significant potential for a split conservative vote in some urban electoral districts, a distraction from focusing on attacking the NDP. The trouble is, as Mr. Mason suggests, the NDP may have the same problem.

Still, as Mr. Mason famously joked in 2011: “I like right-wing parties! In fact, I like right-wing parties so much I want there to be two of them! Or three!”