We’re all going to learn some interesting stuff, beyond the usual government-versus-opposition popularity contest that has typified Alberta politics for the past decade, from the Sept. 14 by-election in Calgary-Shaw called yesterday to replace former United Conservative Party leadership candidate and cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz.
Will the fact that the UCP standard bearer in the contest is a denizen of the governing party’s farthest-right fringe who knocked off a more traditional Conservative with experience on Calgary City Council in June’s constituency association’s candidate election have any impact on the party’s chances in the historically Conservative-leaning riding?
Mike Derry’s campaign was run by Craig Chandler, who in the past has expressed support for Alberta separatism and was once declared by Danielle Smith herself to be too extreme for the Wildrose Party she then led. One would think might be a problem, even in Calgary-Shaw.
Will the fact the NDP came right out and called Mr. Derry an extremist and possibly a separatist work for the Opposition party’s candidate, Kyle Campbell? If so, maybe we will see the NDP take a harder and more focused line in the lead-up to the general election.
As political commentator Dave Cournoyer observed on his Daveberta Substack, NDP support in the riding jumped significantly in 2023 after Ms. Schulz’s more comfortable victory in the 2019 general election. So maybe the NDP has momentum, or maybe the momentum it had has dissipated.
The run by Mr. Campbell, a former president of the residents’ association for the Somerset neighbourhood inside the riding, will be the first electoral test in Calgary for the NDP since Naheed Nenshi became leader. A win would put some wind back in the former Calgary mayor’s sails.
Will former UCP cabinet minister Peter Guthrie’s “Progressive Tory Party” have the electoral juice to break Alberta’s de facto two-party system as some polling once suggested it could and, if so, will it be done at the expense of Premier Smith’s UCP or Opposition Leader Nenshi’s NDP?
Will Kyle Joseph, candidate for the weirdly named PTP, manage to emerge as more than an ephemeral blip on the political radar, and if he does will it be because of or in spite of Mr. Guthrie’s alliance with the perpetually star-crossed Alberta Party? Mr. Guthrie could have rolled the dice and run himself. Perhaps wisely, he chose not to.
And, when the dust settles, will the Alberta Liberal Party, represented by Leader John Roggeveen, manage to survive another election cycle? The Alberta Liberals have been perched on the brink of extinction since at least 2011. You’d think that one of these days they’d just give up. But hope, they say, springs eternal.
As for the question of whether the United Conservative Party is now for all intents and purposes a separatist party – as its behaviour if not Premier Smith’s rhetoric suggests – it’s significant than none of the numerous fringe separatist parties in Alberta have put forward a candidate yet. Readers can decide for themselves whether than means anything. Candidates have until 2 p.m. on Aug. 27 to join the fun.
One thing the by-election campaign or its outcome is unlikely to help explain is the impact of the UCP’s separation referendum and intentionally confusing nine immigration and “constitutional” referenda on the UCP’s chances whenever the next general election is called. That’s why, presumably, the vote has been scheduled before the Oct. 19 referendum date.
As for Ms. Schulz, who announced last New Year’s Eve she was planning to quit as environment minister and formally left politics for a corporate job on May 15, there can be no question she would have made a better premier than Ms. Smith had she won the 2022 UCP leadership race.
Having campaigned as a kinder, gentler sort of Conservative leader, promising to deliver “compassion and common sense in addition to conservative values,” it was sad to see her playing Mini-Me Premier Smith’s MAGA-adjacent posturing when surely, as an intelligent person, she knew better.
It’ll be interesting, to hear all the different platforms and their visions of Alberta’s future…., well except for the UPC’s. I’m pretty sure they’ll be spewing, their same old BS rhetoric, only more amplified and ignorant with Derry. I think everyone, including me will be watching with bated breath and I’m sure we’ll be in for some surprises. Fingers crossed, that the UPC loses a seat.
Rebecca Schulz has been very clear-eyed about sticking to the owners of this province and the one next door.
To be clear, that’s not you nor me nor Mark Dorin or any other rural landowners.
Nor the big city or county councillors and mayors. Doesn’t belong to the people who grumble for and against bike lanes and infill, water management and data centres.
And not to Danielle Smith or Mitch Sylvestre by the way.
No, we don’t own it. Just paying the boss’s mortgage. How about those orphan wells?
https://www.wcap.ca/application/files/5017/8299/3808/2026_07_02_-_Whitecap_Announces_Executive_Appointment_July_Dividend_and_Second_Quarter_2026_Results_Conference_Call.pdf
https://static.aer.ca/prd/documents/decisions/2022/2022ABAER002.pdf
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2026/08/10/news/alberta-oil-and-gas-abandoned-wells-cleanup
https://thenarwhal.ca/alberta-central-landowners-fracking-water/
Yes, Schulz knew better which is likely one reason she left and we are having this by-election. Although so far the steady departure of more traditional conservatives doesn’t seem to have hurt the UCP that much. I recall some of them telling concerned voters in the last election not to worry because they would get rid of Smith quickly. Well like a stubborn stain on her party it seems it is hard to get rid of her now.
I don’t know if this sudden by-election is a sign of confidence by Smith or she has concluded it would juat be better to get this over sooner regardless of the outcome. In theory a lot of political attention should shift soon to the referendum campaigns once people are back from their summer breaks. She may have also decided making it so soon after that may catch the opposition by surprise and also limit the time for them to get voters attention.
It is quite interesting there are no separatist candidates other than from the UCP. The Tories and the Liberals could also draw some voters away from the UCP, particularly as their candidate does not seem that moderate. So the NDP could be well advised to put as much effort into this as they can, despite this generally being a traditional UCP riding in the past
Rebecca Schulz’s time as Children’s Services Minister had some very disastrous results. Hundreds of children got quite sick from E-Coli they got at Calgary daycares. It’s the UCP’s red tape reduction. For 8 months, or so, tailings ponds were leaking near the border of the Northwest Territory. Nothing was done about this, as the UCP sat idle. She, like other UCP MLAs who are resigning, and are not running again probably know the UCP’s goose is cooked, because the of Corrupt Care scandal, which is $614, or even possibly more, still has traction. They don’t want to be linked to it, even though they could be.
The next provincial general election is a little over a year away. Depending on those election results, is it getting closer to a point in time where we put that classic album by The Clash on the old Victrola, “Should I Stay or Should I Go”?
Plenty of backroom dealings and infighting within the UCP. Using the provisions in Bill 14, Danielle Smith could have disqualified Mike Derry as a party candidate in Calgary-Shaw. But she didn’t. Why? It’s a byelection. No guarantee Derry will be the UCP candidate in that riding in the provincial election next year. Hold your fire and keep your powder dry. What’s interesting is what happened recently in Grande Prairie-Wapiti. A separatist candidate was disqualified from running for the nomination clearing the way for the incumbent MLA to run without any challengers. Smith and her minions decided in this case to step in. Reminder – under Bill 14 the person with the final say on who runs for the UCP is the premier/party leader. Not the Constituency Association or party officials. Another battle fought over control of the party between Smith et al and the separatists. Not that Ron Wiebe is much of a prize but he can be controlled. It’s amusing that the separatists were so enthralled by certain sections of Bill 14 that made a referendum easier, they completely missed the implications of that little detail regarding who confirms party candidates. Poor attention to detail.
Calgary is to my mind unpredictable in terms of voting as of late. There is still that oil/American- mid west/ corporate/ Neo con religious influence going through people’s voting values. I am sure people often don’t vote with their interests.
Calgary is a city very much conflicted that way. As Marx rightfully observed, farmers (and ranchers perhaps) can act either with labour, or capital interests as they have roles in both camps. Calgary was both the birthplace of the CCF and Canadian Social Credit.
On that, we can all ponder the winds of fate. Also bear in mind byelections rarely upend a government. So voters often see it as a “penalty shot.” May you all enjoy a beverage of your choosing, and some careful consideration.