If a country had to pick a moment to strike back with targeted countervailing tariffs at the Trump Administration’s habitual bad-faith trade bargaining, surely it would be difficult to imagine a better moment than the day after Labour Day 2026.
As is now well understood by almost everybody on both sides of the world’s longest undefended border, tariffs are going to hit us all regardless of whether we live in the United States or Canada.
But unlike the president of the United States, Canada’s head of government isn’t facing a crucial mid-term election only two months later. That’s long enough for Canadian counter-tariffs that really bite to noticed south of the Medicine Line, but gives the American administration a couple of weeks to think about the implications of that.
One would think it would be a powerful incentive for Donald Trump to TACO and send his negotiators back to the table without the last-minute attack on Canadian sovereignty that killed the deal Friday night.
A little earlier and the likely American counter-counter response might have hurt too much. A little later and it might have been too late for American voters to notice before the mid-terms. To paraphrase Dr. Johnson, it remains to be seen if this is enough to concentrate Mr. Trump’s mind, what’s left of it, wonderfully.
This probably explains why Canadian provincial and federal leaders of all political stripes immediately closed ranks behind Prime Minister Mark Carney, the leader who had the awful responsibility of deciding whether or not to pull the plug on “negotiations” with a government that was neither capable of making an agreement nor sticking to it.
Why, even federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre appears to be on side, vowing in a social media statement Saturday that “Conservatives will always put our country first.” He added, “Conservatives support action to protect Canadians and our industries targeted by these unfair U.S. tariffs.”
There was only one exception. It was Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, of course.
Ms. Smith piously insisted tariffs are always a terrible thing and Canada should immediately roll over and let the United States have its way with us.
On her Saturday morning bi-monthly radio program, Alberta’s United Conservative Party premier reluctantly agreed that Mr. Carney was right to withdraw from bargaining.
But she indicated she wanted no part of taking effective countermeasures – especially if Canada’s richest province has to do its part and feel some of the pain along with everyone else.
“I know, emotionally, it feels good to retaliate, I get that, but let’s remember what happens when we retaliate,” she complained to a softball question pitched by the radio program’s tame host.
A statement on social media late Friday evening came closer to what she likely really thinks: “Alberta will continue to advocate for a strong tariff free relationship between Canada and the U.S.,” she said. “I will be urging the federal government to restart negotiations as soon as possible.”
So while Ontario’s Conservative Premier, Doug Ford, said “Ontario is ready to do its part,” his Alberta Conservative counterpart tacitly indicated, forget about it.
Rob Anderson, Ms. Smith’s chief of staff and some would say the province’s de facto premier, tweeted similar sentiments just after midnight Saturday morning. “Don’t give in to knee-jerk actions that feel good in the moment but only hurt ourselves,” he whinged. “We need to be smarter not more tough guy-er.”
Mr. Anderson, of course, is one of the authors of the Free Alberta Strategy that is driving Ms. Smith’s separation referendum in October, and I’m sure he worries that an excess of Canadian patriotism in response to Mr. Trump’s trade depredations may set back the Alberta separation/U.S. assimilation project which has been successfully flying largely under the public radar.
Interestingly, back on Aug. 15, a week before the negotiations between Canada and the U.S. fell apart, a story in The Globe and Mail included an interesting hint about how the Trump Administration views the Smith Government’s pressure on Ottawa to permit pipelines to be built of every point of the compass.
“The U.S. is demanding a right of first refusal on Canadian critical minerals; that Canada complete its purchase of U.S. F-35 fighter jets; that Ottawa buy U.S. tech such as radar planes as part of joining Mr. Trump’s planned Golden Dome missile defence system; and that Washington receive some guarantee on future supplies of oil and gas,” the story said, citing both Canadian and U.S. sources.
This suggests, one would think, that the Trump government – which clearly would like to end all Canadian trade with China, and possibly Europe as well – would not look with favour on a Canadian pipeline to B.C.’s North Coast to ship Alberta heavy crude to Asia (read China).
How would Ms. Smith feel about that? Probably not as bad as you might imagine, dear readers, since her devotion to Mr. Trump and his MAGA ideology is well known, her separation machinations appear to be motivated as much by a wish for U.S. assimilation as actual independence, and her abiding hatred of the things like public health care that make Canada a better country to live in than the United States.
It’s interesting to note that in light of Mr. Poilievre’s complaint in early August that Mr. Carney was giving away too much to the Americans, U.S. Vice-President JD Vance has made it obvious the Trump Administration would prefer Ontario Conservative MP Jamil Jivani as leader of Canada’s federal Opposition party.
Mr. Vance and his college pal Mr. Jivani, it must be noted, seem like a real pair of weirdos, probably not fully trusted by either of their bosses.
Be that as it may, calling “this guy Pierre Poilievre, who is the leader of the Conservatives in Canada” a “non-entity” at a, Aug. 9 fund-raiser in Southampton, New York, Mr. Vance lauded Mr. Jivani, “this, like, random MP who has a good relationship with us” for his behind-the-scenes advocacy. It’s pretty obvious where Mr. Vance got his impression of Mr. Poilievre.
Despite the Canadian Press reporter who received a recording of the event stating that Mr. Vance meant Mr. Jivani’s advocacy for Canada, this is not actually clear from the context provided in the story.
Mr. Poilievre’s response to his MP’s apparent effort to undermine his leadership was lame, telling CP he’s asked all his MPs with contacts in the U.S. to “fight for tariff-free trade.” He’ll have to do better than that with undeclared rivals if he wants to keep his job.
Danielle Smith would love to do whatever Donald Trump wants. She doesn’t care about Canada. Furthermore, Danielle Smith is good at flapping her gums. What did her meeting in Florida with Donald Trump accomplish?Nothing. Kevin O’Leary was there, and Danielle Smith was likely trying to get an AI data centre for Alberta.
She went in as O’Leary’s baggage, umm make that guest. Came out with a photo op that announced to the world her fealty to maga.
The risk for Trump is his trade war with Canada, which seemed to be close to cooling down but is now heating up again, starts to be seen by his country like his ill advised Middle East conflict. Unnecessary, unending and harmful for their own interests. They seem to have figured out tarrifs are a actually a tax on them and their leader in his second term is an unrestrained bull in a china shop causing damage.
In Canada a familiar pattern is happening with most Premiers and leaders backing the PM, with Smith’s support being the most tepid and the Federal opposition leader’s being the least relevant. Vance’s comments again are not very helpful for the CPC or its leader.
However the CPC leader at least seems to trying to appear to be loyal to Canada. If this conflict continues, it will be interesting if due to her ambivalence, the impression of Smith as a traitor takes more hold.
In spite of what she says, it is very clear to any Albertans that cut through the BS what Smith really has in mind, and it certainly is not what is good for Albertans, just what might be good for her. It is a real embarrassment to see her off in the far forty and nowhere in line with the other Premiers.
Smith is playing a dangerous game with the rest of the country. Speaking from Ontario, one of the hardest hit provinces by the tariffs, it’s being noticed that Alberta (and Saskatchewan) are not willing to make sacrifices for the country. You can hear it in (fairly low key) complaints from Doug Ford. If things get really bad and central Canada suffers for a prolonged period of time while Alberta prospers, I fear that the imagined hostility that many Albertans perceive emanating from upper and lower Canada will become actual hostility.
At least Alberta separatists and conservatives will have something real to complain about.
Trust Smith to be the only Premier to support the Trump administration. She most likely has MAGA embordered on her knickers. She is so hell-bent on breaking Canada up, it’s really quite frightening, but I do think that her base is starting to realize she losing public support and they’ll start discussing her demise. I also think, that even the staunchest UPC supporter, supports what Carney has done and is questioning Smiths position. It’ll be very interesting to see the outcome of the Calgary by-election.
Marlaina has shown us repeatedly that she could not care less about Canada. She is a treasonous snake who only cares about herself. Why do Albertans put up with it?
We must admit that Carney’s negotiation strategy was excellent: negotiate to the last minute, maintaining the suspense, and then pull out intirely.
This is the political equivalent of what Iran did in West Asia and it is a complete victory: no fights among provinces on this or that concession, a united front (minus Alberta) against the bullies Vance and Trump, a big stature boost to Canada (and to Carney himself).
Now let’s face the music!
Perhaps the RCMP’s review of possible treasonous activity by Smith is not so far fetched after all. However, the real target of an investigation should be Rath & Slyvestre.
I think all three should be up on charges.
Has Premier Smith been promised a plum position as unelected prime minister in the post-separation-Alberta-referendum-on-a-referendum-apocalypse-US-territory-of-Canada, with absolutely zero foreign interference which she has already acknowledged? Maybe a hefty salary to go along with it and a palace fit for the Princess of Petroleum? (Not a cottage, people, are you joking?) Let it be adorned with 24 karats of cats!
Who better to crush us under the heel of her rhinestone cowboy boot than the woman in the 10-gallon wool felt hat who is so unemotional that she is entirely incapable of crying an actual tear, although God knows she tried to squeeze one out once. (How do you normal people with human feelings do it? It’s painful, so impossibly painful.)
Finally, she is getting closer to world dominance, or at least dominance over a dominion and a title worthy of her high intellect and charm. Don’t forget the charm. Bend the knee or Mommy Dearest will order spankings for all of you whiny, emotional Alberto-soon-to-be-ex-Canadians and all the rest of you about-to-be-ex-Canadians who haven’t realized it yet and don’t get to vote. Watch out if she gives Bruce McAllister that throat slashing signal. Cut the mic, you’re all going down! Proceed directly to Bruce for your punishment, or if he’s busy Rob Anderson, or perhaps tough guy Jamil Jivani but definitely not Pierre Poilievre, the “non-entity”. If you’re very obedient, get in the other line for your fascist pancakes. Don’t know what those are? They’re usually served cold and half-raw in the middle, proving that people will line up for anything, no matter how bad it is and how bad it is for them. Like now. Buckle up, cowpokes. This ride is going to be a “100”.
Maitres chez nous.
Thank you for another excellent column, David. I realize what I like about your work is how you make connections between issues that I never thought about. Today’s column contains two such connections: how a patriotic reaction to the trade talks failure could impact our referendum results, and how JD Vance’s comments about Jamil Javani could affect Pierre Poilievre’s leadership.
On the topic of the former, it is really easy to see how a Trump administration endorsement of Mr. Javani could sway the extreme element of the CPC, which really is most of what is left of the party, to choose Jamil Javani as their next leader. This is, after all, the same group that chose Pierre Poilievre as their leader after he pandered to the anti-vax convoy in Ottawa.
It isn’t hard to imagine history continuing to repeat itself after the selection of Mr. Javani as leader of the CPC. Residents of Ottawa-Carlton made their feelings about Pierre Poilievre known in the 2025 election, and it is easy to imagine the residents of Jamil Javani’s riding doing the same thing.
Jamil Javani represents the riding of Bowmanville-North Oshawa. In the 2025 election Mr. Javani won the seat with 49.8% of the vote, and the Liberal candidate won 45.5%, so he hardly won by a landslide. Throw in the effect of a Trump/Vance endorsement, and it feels like we should be referring to Javani as the future Member from Battle River – Crowfoot.
Jurassic Jamil Jivani? Catchy.
Danielle Smith: Canada’s Natalie Harp
Purr fect. Pussitively the best analog. One of many Trump pets.
Marlaina as a Trump Penthouse Pet. Now I am really having issues keeping my stomach contents down!
Soul sisters?
So it would seem much as they’ve done everywhere from Russia to Gaza to Iran literally anywhere the Americans claim they are negotiating they are actually demanding capitulation. Carney was very right to scuttle talks. There’s no point in negotiating with someone who writes their agreements “in pencil” as Carney succinctly put it yesterday. It’s something the Russians have known for decades now, and something the Iranians learned very quickly. These talks themselves were a replacement for CUSMA which was Trump’s own trade deal that he now claims is unfair because he wants (?) god knows.
So far all this has done is manage to tank the American economy, cost American taxpayers and companies literally hundreds of billions of dollars, completely isolated America and upended the most stable relationship and the worlds largest unguarded border for his own pathetic, narcissistic, and likely demented ego.
The only reason Trump is even doing this is to project some sense of power even though he is completely impotent and we aren’t going to cave for a second. Neither is Mexico, neither is Russia, neither is Cuba, and obviously neither is Iran and thus the demented occupant of the gilded White House has become ENRAGED.
Personally I couldn’t care less and neither should you. Will this have challenges ? Absolutely but we should have disentangled ourselves from Uncle Sam decades ago. Now Trump is trying to take with a pen what he knows he can’t with a gun and it’s incredibly pathetic.
What does america have that we even want ? Their weapons that don’t work? The F35 they don’t have radars for (and won’t be getting because of Chinese restrictions on rare earths ) electronics ? Please don’t make me laugh. Even the one “development” of the American economy AGI is in tatters, the bubble will pop any day now and Chinese tech has already destroyed Silicon Valley, all that’s left is the weeping. Their creative industries have been consolidated and hollowed out to the point is all you get is the same rehashed trash…. Should I continue !?
What do we have they need ? Oil. We are their number one imported. Potash, they really need that for fertilizer because both the ukraine war and Iranian war have decimated fertilizer production. Water. They’re literally running dry in California Colorado New Mexico and Arizona. They import a ton of Canadian diary, and obviously there’s all the agricultural exports and Lumber. Oh yeah also Uranium, Canada is one of the only places to get it and by far the most stable. Whether he knows it or not the Canadian and American auto industries are the same industry spread out on either side of the border, these tariffs are catastrophic for them.
The produce we can buy from California we can get from Mexico just as easily.
My very pedantic point is this : they still need all that stuff, they’re the ones paying the tariffs, not us. If you’re worried about the reciprocal ones making it more costly for you why are you still buying American !? Get the net ! ELBOWS UP!
(Also of course everyone knows Yankee Doodle Dani is a traitor who desperately wants what she can’t have, to be an American. Everyone with a pulse knows that.)
You forgot aluminum and electricity. That’s the night the lights went out in Chicago and New York. The USA has almost no supply of bauxite.
The Alberta double-dealer who also happens to be a devoted servant and lobbyist for everything oil and gas, an enabler of separatists/secessionists, an Ayn Rand enthusiast, and a dedicated adherent to flawed (both Steve Keen and Michael Hudson deconstruct and debunk neoclassical economic beliefs) textbook neoclassical economic thinking has many self serving reasons for avoiding the implementation of targeted countermeasures.
There are of course, effective methods that are available to respond to the “illegal, unjustified, and irrational” Trump tariffs.
For (one) example,
“Impose an export tax on energy products of at least 15 per cent. There is a good reason why Trump’s tariffs on the energy sector are only 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent rate facing the rest of the economy. Canadian oil and electricity exports play an irreplaceable role in U.S. energy markets. An export tax would force U.S. consumers and businesses to shoulder the full cost of Trump’s measures while generating Canadian public revenues for emergency social support. Even the threat of an export tax, which Canada has so far refused to entertain, would be a powerful warning shot.”
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/a-dozen-radical-responses-to-trumps-economic-warfare-that-go-beyond-canadian-counter-tariffs/
Unfortunately, that would require a form of real political integrity that is unavailable to obsequious schemers whose primary purpose is to shine other peoples shoes for a living. That is,
“The premier added that Alberta will not impose counter tariffs on its energy exports because it is such an essential product for Americans. Smith made headlines in January when she refused to sign a joint statement from all other premiers and the prime minister to use export taxes on Canadian energy as a leveraging tool against the tariff threat.”
The list of inedible food from the USA grows daily. They’ve let their water infrastructure and inspection process degrade to the point of killing people. They’re forced to import beef, likely the same beef from Argentina that was so rotten that China sent it back at the border.
They’re running out of water.
They’re running out of oil. The oil execs think it’s too expensive to expand in Venezuela and they’re running their reserves out trying to keep the entire planet from shutting down from lack of energy due to the mass idiocy of starting a war with Iran.
They’re running out of ordinance.
Why on earth would *anybody* want to join that he11hole? Dixie Dani is out of her mind. Albertans can’t possibly be that deluded.
Dani better keep one thing in mind. Trump threatened our *sovereignty*. That makes him a security threat. That security threat means that yes, the feds *can* if this trade war goes on, put export taxes on her precious oil supply for the purposes of national security. Squawk all she wants, nobody will be listening.
So instead of shillyshallying and yapping about Carney’s refusal to let us be robbed of our ability to trade with whomever we please–she’d best sashay her cowboy-hatted head post-haste down to MaraLardo and start begging her Lord and Master to back the fook off before we’ve all had enough of her shenanigans and demand she pay her fair share or pack up with the rest of her seppie wombats so we can toss them, physically, over the border to live their MAGA dream of endless Tuesday tacos complete with a side order of diarrhoea.
We’ve got enough to deal with without having to worry about her fifth column.
“I’m sure [Rob Anderson] worries that an excess of Canadian patriotism in response to Mr. Trump’s trade depredations may set back the Alberta separation/U.S. assimilation project which has been successfully flying largely under the public radar.”
On this point, here’s an entertaining tidbit. There’s a report this past week that Parti Québecois leader, and putative future Premier of Québec if the next election breaks his way, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has pledged that if the PQ forms government after October, there will be no “sovereignty” referendum until after Trump leaves office.
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/no-referendum-on-quebec-separation-until-donald-trump-is-out-of-power-pq-leader-says/article_f8c1a952-5d2b-4c68-bce1-6d81ded6f9a2.html
This just goes to show how empty the notion of Québec “sovereignty” truly is, if they don’t want to rock the Canadian constitutional boat while facing the threat of the Mango Mussolini.
If the inventors of provincial separatism in Canada can’t stand behind their invention in a national crisis, what does that say about the nutters behind Alberta separatism?
Smith and the UCP are a Fifth Column if ever there was one and Smith’s devotion to Trump makes Natalie Harp appear indifferent. Unbelievably, Smith and the UCP are still leading in the polls! Will someone please tell the rest of Canada what is going on here.
Good response this morning by American Paul Krugman, The Moose That Roared
Why Trump will lose his war with Canada – https://substack.com/inbox/post/212474680?utm_source=email&redirect=app-store-no-desktop&inbox=true&utm_campaign=email-read-in-app&triedRedirect=true
Krugman Klowning as always. There’s a quote in there from someone saying that the Drumpf wants to turn Canada into the “Belarus” of the US. Canada would have to go some distance to achieve the level of autonomy that Belarus enjoys vis-a-vis the wicked Russians. The Canadian economy is completely enmeshed in that of the hegemon, with integrated banking, which itself is completely cross-owned. The military of Canada and the intelligence agencies and law enforcement and academia are all completely enmeshed. For all intents and purposes the US owns the Canadian oil industry. This is all theatre. The underlying programs transcend the various placeholders in the legislatures. The Carny Banker and the Liberals support US imperialism to the hilt where it matters: fighting China, Russia and Iran; Venezuela when it was required. This is to maintain the economic power is the 0.001 percent. The Carny Banker loves him some Elbows Up Larry Fink. What could be more Canadian than Blackrock?
I keep hearing this over and over but that doesn’t make it correct:
“couldn’t care less” is a double negative. What people intend to say is “could care less”.
As in” Danielle Smith could care less about Canadian sovereignty.”
This seems so irrelevant I wonder if it’s some kind of spam. That said, if I could care less, I would care more. “I couldn’t care less” is grammatically, logically and idiomatically correct. It is not a double negative and it is not a sloppy Americanism, as is I could care less. All that said, I couldn’t care less if you disagree with me. DJC