Thanks to her sneaky separatist manoeuvring, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith seems to have wedged herself between the proverbial rock and metaphorical hard place.
If she doesn’t do what the Alberta separatists in her United Conservative Party demand and call a referendum using the wording on their Citizen Initiative petition – “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?” – they may very well depose her in an internal party coup.
If she does that, though, she will run up against the courts – which have ruled that question to be unconstitutional and quashed approval of the petition because First Nations were not consulted. She may also soon face an energized pro-Canadian electorate that is finally starting to pay enough attention to send her packing if it gets the chance.
If she tries to find a “compromise” between those irreconcilable positions, one side, the other, or both could turn on her.
Nevertheless, it looks as if starting today Premier Smith will try to wiggle out of the trap she has built and wedged herself into by pretending to be a loyal Canadian while doing everything she can to facilitate the schemes of the separatist crowd.
The Legislature’s Select Special Citizen Initiative Proposal Review Committee has asked Thomas Lukaszuk, proponent of the Forever Canadian petition campaign, to come to its meeting this afternoon at 3 o’clock.
“It is possible the Committee will consider a motion during the May 20th meeting to invite you to present to the Committee,” said Chair Brandon Lunty, the UCP MLA for Leduc-Beaumont, in a letter to Mr. Lukaszuk, a former Progressive Conservative deputy premier of Alberta.
The letter continues: “In the event that the Committee chooses, during the meeting, to invite you to present, I would ask that, should you be available to attend, you please be prepared to make a presentation on the citizen initiative proposal of up to five minutes, after which committee members will have the opportunity to ask questions regarding the proposal and your presentation.”
Needless to say, this is both gormless and rude. Mr. Lukaszuk obviously picked up on the letter’s tone when he posted it to social media yesterday, commenting, “Looks like the UCP led committee dealing with the #ForeverCanadian petition has found whole FIVE MINUTES to discuss the future of Alberta and Canada.”
Nevertheless, he will be there. He told me last night: “I think Canada is worth five minutes. I will definitely go and make sure that this is the longest five minutes that those UCP MLAs have ever experienced!”
The obvious conclusion from this is that Mr. Lunty’s boss and her advisors have already decided to put separation on the ballot in October, and they’ll make it official this week, but they’d like to find a way to blame Mr. Lukaszuk for what is bound to be an unpopular decision.
Up to now, the committee has been slow-walking the Forever Canadian petition – which was intended to require the members of Legislative Assembly to vote yes or no on the question, “Do you agree that Alberta should remain within Canada?” – observed Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt said on social media last night.
“It does not matter what @LukaszukAB or Forever Canada may have wanted,” Dr. Bratt said, responding to a post that suggested the UCP was trying to make Mr. Lukaszuk the scapegoat for the referendum they desperately want. “It is the determination of the MLA Committee that matters. And I am almost 100% that they will recommend a referendum and along party lines.”
Whether the UCP has decided to use Mr. Lukaszuk’s wording for their separatist referendum, as some have speculated, remains to be seen. But if they do, Mr. Lukaszuk observed, the premier will have to be the proponent, because he won’t.
And if they use his question, he added, “that will cause them more problems than they can imagine.”
“My question was designed to be asked in a legislature and to block their question,” he said. “My question does not meet the Clarity Act requirements and it cannot possibly start a constitutional process for separation.”
Which leaves us where, exactly?
In the short term, if the UCP tries to use the Forever Canadian question, the hard-core separatists in the party bureaucracy will be furious – at the premier. If the government tries to move ahead with the Stay Free Alberta question, the vote will quickly bump up against the courts. What’s more, we can expect a large cohort of Alberta voters who have not really been paying attention up to now to be infuriated by this UCP threat against their country and the rights it guarantees them.
Still, one way or another, Ms. Smith might succeed in wiggling off the hook. History shows you can never count her out.
Years ago, one of Ms. Smith’s smartest and closest political allies, who must remain nameless to protect the periodically helpful, told me that the former Wildrose Party leader often operated her mouth without engaging her brain.
But whenever this got her in trouble, as it frequently did, she reckoned she could always talk her way out of the hot water she’d gotten herself into. “And she usually could,” they ruefully remembered.
Five minutes for Thomas Lukaszuk to present his case for the Forever Canada petition. You now have more evidence that the UCP and Danielle Smith are dictators. Danielle Smith can’t talk herself out the messes she has made. It’s only after the fact that she tries to retract. When she was employed as a public school trustee, she was known as Trash Can Dani, because of her toxic relationship with her colleagues. She’d did in the trash cans and bins to find things her colleagues said against her. 14 years ago, Danielle Smith didn’t get her Wildrose candidates under control, and that was a factor for a big Wildrose defeat to the Alberta PCs. Eleven years ago, voters punted Danielle Smith in her riding, during a provincial election, also due in part to her actions, and what she said. AM talk radio is usually Conservative bent, and a radio station had to sack Danielle Smith because of the inexcusable things she said, when she was employed by them as a talk show host. The reason why Danielle Smith has cut the Legislature sessions in Alberta to almost non existent is because she would be seen lying. It will be interesting to see how these separatists land on their butts, and take Danielle Smith down with them. It’s unlikely that she will remain as premier.
During her Wild Rose leadership stupidity one of her candidates told me that she fully supported Smith’s plan to privatize healthcare and education when she was elected premier.
She said she had her son in a private school and it was only costing her $1,000. per month and it was wonderful. I asked her if she had 6 children would she feel the same way. She said no one should be allowed to have more than two children.
In the election she got 198 votes and the conservative who beat her got more than 25,000, that’s what people thought of her stupidity.
Lol……. More of us want to go than you think. Dictators? You have no idea what that means if you use it here like this. Pathetic.
No one is stopping you from leaving. In fact this province would be a nicer place filled with patriotic Canadians rather than your treacherous ilk.
Please!! it’s
” Forever -Canadian”
( as in: I want to stay forever Canadian, not forever Canada)
It’s like the American headlines that say “the Canada Prime Minister ” . Twitch!
Thanks, Randi-lee. It’s been fixed. Glad I held off on posting the harder-to-fix Substack version. DJC
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. This is not the time for Danielle’s dangerous stunts.
One of Smith’s, at times overly clever, communications strategies is to ignore or dismiss things she does not like and so far she has done that with the Forever Canada petition. She has generally acted as if it did not exist and has focused political discussion on the other petition she does want to talk about.
So you can imagine how desperate she must be right now to have to bring it up. Of course the intention of this petition, which was first and the one which got the most signatures, was not to force a referendum but to ask our MLAs to affirm their support for Canada. This is a big problem for Smith, whose caucus seems to be riddled with separatists and who seems less than enthusiastic about Canada also. Lucaszuk will likely remind the UCP of this intention given the opportunity to speak.
So the challenge for Smith and crew, will be now to try characterize the Forever Canada petition as something else. How? Did I mention she is good at ignoring or dismissing things she does not like?
I’m not sure this will work for Smith, but she is desperate and there is a crack here to try get through between a rock and a hard place, so I suppose she will try it. However, the bigger problem for Smith now is not her so far stymied referendum plans, but her own ambiguous position on what is a yes/no question along with her tacit support and encouragement of the separatists initiatives. At this point, the separatists, who seem to own and control her party, do not trust her anymore than the Forever Canadians, who seem to represent the majority of Albertans.
So I feel it will be very hard for Smith to now try and weasel out of this messy situation she created in large part due to her own bad judgement and not thinking enough before speaking. However, she is going to try get herself out of this mess and yes she is a very slippery one.
I am positive that Mr. Lunty would not survive a political career anywhere else within the Commonwealth, above all in Australia or Great Britain. The low hanging rhyming fruit of his name would be too much to bear for likeminded critics. He needs to shave his neck more often too.
How did he suddenly get pushed to the forefront of the UCP corruption (gerrymandering and separatism) machine?
Bitterböse: In answer to your question first, probably because the smarter operatives in the UCP caucus and cabinet are wary of entanglements that could later result in the complete destruction of their reputations and their political careers, or even criminal charges. As for your first point, I agree, and had the same thought last night when, typing about Mr. Lunty in a hurry on my smartphone, I accidentally discovered that the L and K keys on a QWERTY keyboard are adjacent to one another. DJC
At this point, Queen Danielle and her gang of idiots must be bending and twisting themselves into impossible knots of this situation. Okay. Maybe it was Smith’s nonsense that got Carney’s attention, but that’s not what the rank & file of the UCP wants. They want the country of their culture war dreams. While this fever dream of FreeDUMB has its appeal to the crazies, there’s the giant elephant in the room that’s known as Mango Mussolini. Trump has taken his grift and insanity to the wildest levels. The criminality and stupidity of the Trump White House is breathtaking. Apparently, that ballroom is now some kind of church as mandated by God? If anyone was playing attention to the thinly attended megachurch rally (for Jesus and Trump) on the National Mall last Sunday, one would get the feeling that America 250 is turning into some kind of weird hybrid version of The Hunger Games meets The Handmaid’s Tale. You get your pick: Gilead or Panem? I suppose the AB Seppies are getting all orgasmic over that prospect.
JM: I have a theory about the Ballroom, which I am publishing here for the first time. The intention is that when President Trump croaks – which may be quite soon given the apparent state of his health, the details of which he is likely aware – it will be used as a state mausoleum like those built for Lenin (more lately re-tenanted or something) and Mao. That way the legitimacy of the Great Leap Backward to American Greatness will be eternally embedded in the Imperial regime regardless of the charismatic failings of any of Mr. Trump’s MAGA successors. (C’mon down, JD!) DJC
Burying Trump beneath his ballroom’s floor is an excellent idea. Future generations will no doubt greatly appreciate the opportunity to dance on his grave.
My theory about the ballroom is that he will retreat to the underground safety facilities where he has sent all controls of major controls, and ensconce himself there if (when) he loses the elections, and maintain control while his paid minions fight for control above ground.
Suckers believe whatever Smith says.
David, do you happen to know, if there will be advance polling, for the October referendumb?
Jones: Offhand, no idea. I will try to check. Somehow I doubt it, the UCP being steeped in MAGA nonsense. DJC
What was the point of gathering signatures if Marlaina was just going do whatever the hell she wants anyway? She could not care less about legalities and has already said she will use the notwithstanding clause to push for separatism.
The point was to get to where we are now, where even the UCP cannot ignore nearly half a million signatures. Think about where we would be now if the Forever Canadian initiative did not exist. And by the way, do not think we will stay quiet if it does come to a referendum campaign. Come and join the fun!
Mr. Lukaszuk needs to consult a lawyer before he agrees or refuses. If the lawyer clears his attendance he’d better take a coterie of bodyguards, videographers, a secreted listening device and a lawyer.
For some reason, possibly some legal loophole, that committee needs him to officially show up, or not, to prove something.
There’s a trap set here, I’m just not sure what kind.
B– Mr Lukaszuk is a lawyer, and has had enough working experience with Marlaina, that I’m quite certain he’s not going to get caught flat footed…he is well aware of how she operates.
Randi-lee: Mr. Lukaszuk is not a lawyer. He has been a school teacher and business person. DJC
All said and done, referendum or none, the UCP is an amalgam of people I have no respect for and even less time -not even 5 minutes! The Sylvestre crew of separatists are snakes. Strong words, I know, but those people are deluded, destructive, and dumb. My time is better spent pulling dandelions. “Vive le Canada!”
There are some other possibilities for Premier Smith’s State of the Alberta Nation talk on Thursday night. She could opt to put BOTH questions on the ballot – Forever Canada and Stay Free Alberta. This would take the steam out of the separatists drive to ‘Kenney’ her, at least in the short term. The Stay Free Alberta question would be struck down by the courts, but that could be several months from now. Too late for a summer Special General Meeting and leadership vote. Or Smith could put an alternate question on the ballot – Do you support a Sovereign Alberta within a United Canada? It’s meaningless, but this whole referendum issue is meaningless. This question would present a problem for those of us who want Alberta to stay in Canada. Vote for it and we’re backing Smith’s stupid catchphrase that stands for nothing. Vote against and it looks like we’re voting for separation. I suspect most people would decide to stay home on October 19. Including the separatists. They’ll be busy getting organized for either an SGM or the November UCP AGM with the aim of sending Smith to Panama. Permanently. I hear there are some good karaoke bars down there.
Your alternate question is in fact what her nine questions amount to. And it’s not meaningless. It means can Alberta be part of Canada and ignore federal legislation. This goes back to the firewall letter and the Free Alberta Strategy (which I recommend to everyone that they should read). If you read the latter, you will find it’s explicitly about how to avoid a referendum, except only as an absolute last resort if everything else fails. So with her nine questions this is what Smith is trying to do. But the theory behind sovereignty within Canada never took into account the possibility of an actual separatist movement, and certainly not an effort on the part of the United States to annex Alberta. And here we are.
Opening her mouth before engaging her brain is the mark of an annoying fish that keeps getting hooked even after repeated catches-and-releases.
Danielle Smith should be very wary of a party meet where the smell of barbecue and fish-batter, and the sound of a chunk of Louis Jordan vinyl on the turntable pervades the venue.
The Ancient Chinese sage Loa Tzu equated governing with the cooking of a small fish which must be handled very carefully because, in a typically Taoist allusion, such a small fish easily rots from the head (Tao Te Ching, Chapter 60, which concludes: “Let the kingdom [therefore] be governed according to the Tao…”)
Albertans have had more than their fill of fueling the cars and heating the homes Ontario and Quebec They should just turn off the wells. Saskatchewan should sell their wheat and fertilizer to the US or Europe. When Ontario gets cold and hungry maybe they will recognize their insular ignorance and recognize the value of all the Provinces
Naw, they’ll just electrify, ya fackin’ dope.
@William
Except they aren’t. At least, not directly. Alberta sells to US refineries and they sell back to Ontario/Quebec. We don’t get relief from American overpricing either while Alberta sells their oil at a massive discount to the USA. (This has been my argument forever that we don’t need more pipelines, we need refineries and oil money going into a sovereign wealth fund along with percentages from all mining and other resource extraction which would cover government expenses and social services)
Clearly, you haven’t been paying attention because that potash for fertilizer IS going to the USA and elsewhere, as well as the wheat. Thus, the sticker price shock on produce that is going to hit the USA market like a tsunami this year. Oh and let’s not forget the mess with fertilizer components that’s currently going to engulf the entire world, including Canada and the USA because Mango Mussolini can’t seem to keep his stupid nose out of other people’s countries.
Sure. Turn off the pipelines and the sooner the entire country goes electric short of a minimum of oil needed for plastics or grease. Watch how fast the USA invades Alberta to steal it since they’re selling all of their own plus Alberta’s at a rapidly increasing global price to desperate countries due to the mess they’ve caused in the Gulf. Whatever money and jobs you think oil is bringing in will be gone. Americans will be working there. Americans corporations will be collecting every penny. They don’t need you. They don’t care about you. They don’t want you as citizens. They just want your oil.
And in case you haven’t been keeping up with the boycott news, presently most of our fresh produce is coming from Chile and Mexico. American produce doesn’t sell here even when it’s being massively discounted. BC isn’t whinging about selling theirs across country when it’s available so I’m not sure what point you think you’re making, here.
It won’t just be Ontario and Quebec who get the shaft if we don’t all stick together.
Alberta stands to lose as much or more. Alberta is nice and flat and easy to invade. Don’t think there isn’t a bunch of Imperialist war-mongers gaming out that scenario right now in a back room in Washington.
Dear Mr. Griffin: most homes in Ontario and Quebec are heated using electricity mostly generated from hydro dams and nuclear. Most of the hones in Manitoba and B.C. are also hydro electric. Given the cost of natural gas, even in Alberta using electrically driven heat pumps are at parity cost now.
About 70% of Prairie grown wheat and other grains have always been sold to Asia and Europe. Canadians eat about 20% and the Yanks take the remainder. Ontario grows huge amounts of corn and with Quebec, lots of vegetables. Insular ignorance is not limited to Ontario.
Mr. Griffin.
Where did the Canadian military and Red Cross health workers who came to the rescue of Alberta’s critically stressed and failing hospitals during the Covid pandemic come from?
Do you recall the Hay West aid package of 2002 when Ontario and Quebec farmers donated 30,000 tonnes of hay to save the lives of starving Alberta cattle during a severe drought?
With all the focus on the referendum, what gets overlooked is the fact that the recent Janet Brown poll showed that the cult-like rural and Calgary voters will return a UCP government. With Smith or Jeffrey Rath as Premier who knows? When you have swallowed the Kool-aid, who cares! The current referendum is a storm in a teacup compared to the future Albertans have in store.
LAS: If you have talked to what Ralph Klein used to call “severely normal Albertans,” as I assume we all have, you will be aware that a really startling number of our friends, neighbours and family members are almost completely unaware of this whole separatist thing and if they think about it at all, think it’s a joke. I am reasonably confident that this will change as citizens become aware of what the UCP is up to, as is inevitable. DJC
Some thoughts. First, although formally this is Mr. Lukaszuk’s initiative, I’m sure he will be the first to agree it does not belong to him. It belongs to the thousands of volunteers who canvassers for it and the hundreds of thousands of people who signed it. And speaking as one of those canvassers and signatories, I can assure you that I never expected a vote in the Legislature and I very much expected a referendum question. The question as it stands does not lead to action of any kind, either for or against separation. It simply gives the people an opportunity to express ourselves on this important issue, an opportunity that no other mechanism of our alleged democratic institutions will provide. I say bring it on. Give the people the opportunity to express what we want once and for all, and lay this matter to rest. And then maybe get on with the important problems we have to tackle as a society and stop wasting time on empty posturing.
Smith’s future:
1)The forever canadian question can’t be perverted into a pro-seperation question – that flouts the Clarity Act. Someone will ask Court of Kings Bench and successfully block it. Goto 3 or 4.
2) She tries to use referendum act directly to ask her own separation question. First Nations kick that to the curb with extreme prejudice. Goto 3 or 4.
3) She rolls the dice and calls an early election for September and loses badly
4) She tries to expel her separatists in UCP, fails, and gets punted, hard, at her AGM in November
More like between a Rath and a hard place.
(Sorry, couldn’t pass that up.)
DJC— Thank You very much!
Now if you’re looking for a word to describe politics in Alberta on Wed. May 20th, I came across this while researching another subject, but it really seemed apropos.
If I had to describe the UCP party in one word
>>> Feculent<<<
Hope you can get some sleep, trying to keep up with this gong show must be wearing.
Thanks for all your hard work.