OK, people, with a provincial election expected next year, we are entering the season of polls and rumours of polls, and the results are so far, shall we say, murky.
At least three pollsters have been in the field in Alberta in the past few weeks.
Angus Reid Institute was busy polling from March 11 to 17 with an online sample of 434 adults resident in Alberta. ARI doesn’t appear to have measured voter intention in this poll, or if they did, judging from their online report, they didn’t tell us about it. Weird.
They did measure leader popularity, and according to ARI, NDP Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi with 33-per-cent support seriously lags Premier Danielle Smith with 46 per cent. “Both, notably, are viewed negatively by a majority,” the ARI analysis of its results said – 53 per cent disapproval for Mr. Nenshi and 52 per cent for Ms. Smith.
At the same time, ARI said, “more Albertans believe the province is overall on the wrong track (52 per cent) than the right one (38 per cent).” Ms. Smith’s United Conservative Party owns that, presumably, although they can always try to blame Justin Trudeau, and probably will.
Pollara Strategic Insights used an online sample of 3,200 adult Albertans “recruited from a mix of the Leger and Dynata online research panels.” It was in the field from March 16 to 25, overlapping ARI’s survey by a couple of days.
Decided voter intention in this poll put the UCP at 49 per cent and the Alberta NDP at 42 per cent, with 9 per cent claiming they’d vote for someone else. But Pollara’s regional breakdown was significant: In Edmonton, it said, the NDP polled at 53 per cent, compared to 38 per cent for the UCP. In Calgary the NDP also led, although more narrowly, 48 per cent to 42 per cent. UCP support was in the lead everywhere else, 55 per cent to 33 per cent in the rest of the province.
Pollara tried to measure public sentiment about political figures, resulting in a confusing chart that suggests a lot more Albertans can’t stand Ms. Smith than can’t stand Mr. Nenshi, It’s on page 6 of the firm’s summary, so you can look for yourselves and see if you can figure it out.
Pollara also focused on sentiment in favour of Alberta separatism in its summary, saying, “27 per cent of decided voters in Alberta would vote to separate, a record-high over the five years Pollara has been tracking this.” This figure is very hard to believe, but its not inconsistent with earlier polls. It speaks, it is said here, to the power of misinformation and disinformation.
“While provincial NDP and federal Liberal/NDP voters are overwhelmingly against separatism (96%+ would vote to remain), provincial UCP and federal Conservatives voters are split,” Pollara added in its key findings.
Léger asked its online panel of 1,003 Albertans questions from April 3 to 6 – that is, over the Easter holiday weekend – which is, in your blogger’s opinion for what it’s worth, also weird. Its results were similar to ARI’s, but it did estimate voter intentions. To wit, that support for the UCP among decided voters was at 53 per cent, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP.
As for the two parties’ leaders, Léger said, its results showed Premier Smith ahead with support of 46 per cent compared to 35 per cent for Mr. Nenshi, with Mr. Nenshi moreover on a downward path and Ms. Smith trending upward from previous surveys.
“The public mood remains uneasy,” said Léger’s analysis of its results. Fifty-six per cent of respondents told the pollster they thought the province is on “the wrong track.”Only 37 per cent it was moving in “the right direction.”
Two other polls are widely rumoured to have been carried out in the same period, both said by people who have seen them to have a regional breakdown similar to the March 16-25 Pollara sample. However, they are done for private clients and are not accessible to we of the hoi polloi.
So what does this all mean? Well, not much at this point, I’d suggest, but maybe a couple of things.
If Albertans don’t like what the UCP is doing but still favour Ms. Smith over Mr. Nenshi by a significant margin, the obvious conclusion is that the biggest problem faced by the NDP right now is its leader.
Will that stir up a rebellion in the NDP ranks? Well, anything could happen if sitting MLAs start to worry about their job security, but it seems likely that the NDP is stuck with Mr. Nenshi through the next election.
Moreover, Pollara’s results don’t exactly indicate that Ms. Smith, her ability to gaslight her way out of any corner notwithstanding, is a coruscating advantage for her party either.
As for the regional breakdown in Pollara’s results, that suggests the temptation will be very strong for the UCP to use its majority in the Legislature to impose a Texas-style gerrymander on Alberta and cheat its way to a semi-permanent majority worthy of the soon-to-depart Hungarian premier, Viktor-Orbán.
I am inclined to think, by the way, that ARI’s analysis wandered into the weeds when it tried to suggest the choice of Avi Lewis, an actual committed social democrat, as leader of the federal NDP “will be a challenge” for Mr. Nenshi.
That could be, but it’s an opinion, not analysis, since Mr. Lewis’s leadership victory was announced on March 29, well after ARI was in the field. Moreover, Pollara’s analysis suggests that, UCP screeching notwithstanding, very few Albertans have much of an impression of what Mr. Lewis stands for.
It’s likely Mr. Nenshi’s image problem has more to do with his unwillingness to advocate clear policy changes than any policy ideas Mr. Lewis might come up with.
Indeed, if any of Mr. Lewis’s supposedly radical policy suggestions gain traction Zoran Mamdani style, it’s as likely to motivate Alberta voters who can’t tell the difference between the federal and provincial NDP as it is to discourage them.
It’s said here it doesn’t really help for the NDP to be afraid to advocate potentially popular policies that contrast with the UCP’s economic mismanagement for fear that someone, somewhere might criticize them. The UCP is going to attack the NDP as crazy radicals no matter what they do.
Nevertheless, cautiously refusing to offer positive policy choices that the UCP base might hate appears to be Mr. Nenshi’s inclination anyway. In truth, though, this was deeply ingrained in the Alberta NDP long before the former Calgary mayor came along offering to do what Rachel Notley couldn’t and bring Calgary into the Orange camp.
The fact is, the Alberta NDP never recovered from the Notley government’s Bill 6 fiasco in 2015 and 2016, a self-inflicted wound that haunts it still.
These polls are meaningless, in the bigger picture. The problem with the Alberta NDP isn’t Naheed Nenshi. It’s a lying media who endorses the UCP and Danielle Smith at every chance, while demonizing him and the NDP. The only reasons why Rachel Notley and the Alberta NDP faced defeat in the previous provincial election in Alberta, three years ago, was because we had columnists in the media lying about Rachel Notley and the NDP, and the media never scrutinized the UCP and Danielle Smith for their major missteps. No matter who the NDP in Alberta would have chosen for their leader, the media would have ignored them, and told more lies about them, while continuing to glorify the UCP and Danielle Smith. For the riding of Edmonton Strathcona, Danielle Smith would have held off the by-election until the last possible juncture allowed, regardless of who the NDP in Alberta picked for their leader. That’s because she doesn’t want scruitny from opposition. It’s also why Danielle Smith cut off the Alberta Legislature sessions, so they hardly ever happen. Well if Naheed Nenshi would have done this, or if he would have done that, it would be different. If the Alberta NDP would have picked another leader, things would have been different. They wouldn’t be different, and that’s because of a compliant media that supports the UCP and Danielle Smith, while she continues to lie, and the UCP continues to do epic missteps.
Copy editors checking facts? That’s thing of the past at Postmedia, apparently, as election column illustrates – Alberta Politics https://share.google/pwOJATrifmltfq7RN
Rachel Notley can’t run on her record as premier because it’s a disaster | National Post https://share.google/z3Zgw4LiDBp91xB6u
Bell: Smith soars, Nenshi sinks, Alberta lefties scratch their heads | Calgary Herald https://share.google/gNpG8A0yObfanZ5pY
It is very rare to see the media criticize the UCP and Danielle Smith. Most of what is said or written is absolute trash. There may be light at the end of the tunnel, because Danielle Smith and her UCP gang of misfits can only play games for so long. Their corruption can’t continue indefinitely. Corrupt Care has more issues with it.
Bell: Smith loses, Nenshi becomes premier in poll showcased by MP | Calgary Herald https://share.google/zyhzAr1ilTQ9khh8l
Braid: Need a quick blood test? The UCP has a user-pay clinic for you | Calgary Herald https://share.google/6Mibalj0a9QlzANzx
I find polling fascinating, perhaps because it is both an art and a science. Not so sure about the wisdom of calling during the Easter holiday, but maybe some people do pick up because they think their kids are calling about what time dinner is.
While they haven’t yet stated calling him yesterday’s man, Nenshi is definitely currently suffering from the disadvantages of being a lower profile opposition leader against a Premier who regularly does and says unpredictable things to keep attention focused on her and to keep others off balance. Sometimes elections can be great levellers for this sort of thing, sometimes not.
Although Smith is not so well liked either and perhaps even worse for her, many people don’t really think she is doing a great job right now. Usually this does not get better the longer a leader or party is in power and instead gets worse, like air gradually going out of a balloon. So this presents the UCP with a real dilemma, Smith is not a clear asset for them now, but also not so much of a liability that they can justify getting rid of her.
If the NDP are struggling in the polls it isn’t because they aren’t socialist enough. Alberta is the the OG bastion of conservatism in Canada. I travel in well-heeled circles where the UCP are generally detested and despite that, not one person I know of is pining for a more socialist government or more socialist policy proposals from the opposition. What people want is good government, a strong economy, good jobs, a competently managed healthcare system, low taxes, and a balanced budget. Any opposition party’s challenge will be to convince Albertans that they can offer those things better than the incumbent UCP who have the “devil you know” advantage over Nenshi and the NDP.
Socialist? With this NDP you will get pretend social democrat, known as Neo-Liberal pink. Nenshi cannot even deal with Avi Lewis never mind socialism?
@Counterpoint
The problem with the people you’re speaking to is that they don’t understand a simple fundamental flaw in their own thinking.
You can’t have *more* social services and *less* taxes. That’s an oxymoron in a capitalist system. Nobody can offer them that and not be lying.
And if you want a socialist/communist system the USA will punish you for not supporting *their* capitalists. That, a country can prepare for but it’s not avoidable until the US Empire falls.
Oh I agree with you. By the way I was not being sarcastic at all. I truly believe in what I said about the NDP here in Alberta and elsewhere in Canada is not much different. In fact I lived in Europe for a few years and Social Democracy is a joke there as well. They were easily sucked into the Neo-Liberal mindset and I guess it being inevitable became reality.
As far as lying, that is today the normal for any political party regardless of what colour. We allowed that normalization and to me that is the greatest cause of Democratic failure in the West. We now think that we can get away with anything just to have power. Just look at the ecstasy in the Liberal Party for having usurped a majority. Really? So Democracy only works with majorities? Well we have a lot to learn about true Democracy.
As far as the US punishing, well sometimes if a nation wants to be proud and move in its own path, you have to sacrifice and work hard for it. You have to admit that is not our case. We have been 0n the American bandwagon since the end of the second world war and we did not develop our own industries and our own research and to top it all out, we let go of the little we had to poorer countries to be able to get stuff cheap. The result of that easy peasy attitude is now obvious and we are now selling ourselves to China which will be very willing to get their hands fully in our lives and our resources. Carney says no we are not, but I have heard that for the last 50 years.
@Carlos
I agree with your assessment. The gutting of the NDP was not a win for Canada. It never is.
As to “not developing” there are two factors involved here. Mulroney sold us out to “free trade” which was great for American Oligarchs, far less great for us. The second is the spinelessness of all Canadian politicians that sold our defence south of the border. We can’t have missiles because the Yanks said so. (We might point them to Washington and given the administration there right now, I expect Minnesota would be cheering if we did) We can’t build fighter jets or buy cheaper, more serviceable Grippens because the Yankee Military Industrial Complex have our military in their back pocket. We’re selling our resources for half their value because it’s easier and cheaper to drive south than ship east or west. Particularly now that the American Empire has locked up all the oil.
Part of this is the ease of geography. While Europe complains when their nations do deals with Russia. The fact is, like us trading with the USA, it’s logistically simpler and cheaper to sell to your next door neighbour. It does, however, tend to make the government lazy.
Nobody has a grander vision. They’re stuck in this capitalist hellhole and their warmongering is killing the planet.
Like you, I’m not thrilled about majority governments. The only reason I can countenance this one is that it will show some stability to the rest of the world while we’re dealing with the meth lab in our basement and give the federal NDP some time to rebuild and shine…if…and it’s a big if…they avoid the twin traps of depending on the legacy media and take the party back to its socialist roots; social housing, healthcare, proper wages, job protections etc.
Also, work to get rid of omnibus bills. Today. If there’s too much to do then stop having months of holidays and work overtime like everyone else in the country and debate or agree on every line item. Canada ain’t THAT big.
B we have a very similar political vision of what is going on and Yes we have been sucked into the American power structure big time. The problem is that we are now part of the failing part of it. Whether or not we will survive this Trump catastrophe is unknown because if the US does not stop Trump I think the world is in big trouble.
Anyway I could talk forever but thank you for the discussion, I appreciate it very much.
We live in a plutocracy and the power of the plutocrats has only grown in the fifty-plus years since Notley the Elder described the Alberta Energy Company thusly: “”the most gigantic sellout in the history of Canada””. What policy is Nenshi going to propose in this system that is not “crazy radical”?
@Murphy, Absolutely. And the citizens have all drunk the kool-aid of anything they don’t agree with, or might actually benefit the working class is “radical” because they have been consistently lied to and can’t open a dictionary.
Typo in the last sentence of the post (self-inflicted would – should be wound)
I like Nenshi, I though he was a decent mayor and he always seemed to work hard for Calgarians. The way he handled the flood in Calgary was impressive. The way he organized his people and set priorities, he was a true leader. But after the fact, it seemed to go to his head and he lost his focus and determination. As the leader of the NDP, I think he’s a little weak. He’s got good ideas, he’s a good strategist and he’s a good speaker, but lacks passion. I feel the NDP would have been better served, with Pancholi as the leader and Nenshi as the deputy leader. But regardless, the UCP needs to be given the boot, so Alberta can do a re-set. Maybe little Dani will click her heels and be sent to…….?
Jones: Naheed Nenshi isn’t weak. The media won’t acknowledge him and the NDP, and still continues to glorify the UCP and Danielle Smith. Danielle Smith also held off the by-election for Edmonton Strathcona until very last juncture, which didn’t help. Also, Danielle Smith made it so that the Alberta Legislature hardly even has sessions. Regardless of who the NDP would have picked for a leader, this would have been the same results.
I agree with you, regarding the media not giving him the coverage and pushing the right wing view points and agendas. Todays news, for the most part, is far from balanced. It’s become opinion, instead of Who, What Why, When, Where and How. However, I said that as a leader, Nenshi is a little weak, not weak, just a little. I do receive his press conferences and the videos from the NDP websites. I think he was late out of the gate when it came to some of the past issues and that he’s too soft on the Alberta separatists. I feel that sometimes he needs to let himself go, express the frustration and anger that he feels, when the Smith government is attacking Albertans basic rights. That’s where I feel he’s a bit weak. Other than that, I like him, I think he’s fair and open minded and he’ll be a decent Premier.
Jones: The Alberta NDP could have gotten any leader of their choice. It still wouldn’t matter. The media would still lie about them, while glorifying the UCP and Danielle Smith. Also, Danielle Smith still would have held off the by-election for Edmonton Strathcona until the very last moment, just the same. She also would have reduced the Alberta Legislature sessions so they hardly occur.
With the Alberta NDP, and Naheed Nenshi, they could announce they discovered a cure for a debilitating disease, and the media would still vilify them, while continuing to endorse the UCP and Danielle Smith. In the last provincial election in Alberta, three years ago, the reasons why the NDP and Rachel Notley were defeated was because the media lied about them (which I’ve shown here), and they didn’t take the UCP and Danielle Smith to task for their epic boondoogles and horrendous governing. When people have to resort to blogs like this, to get the factual information, that the conventional media does not, and will not bother to cover, there is a very large problem. Licia Corbella somehow came out of retirement to write lies about the NDP and Rachel Notley, just in time for the provincial election in Alberta, three years ago. She also didn’t disclose that she was a card carrying member of the UCP, and she got into trouble for that. Rick Bell , Lorne Gunter, David Staples, and others still continue to publish lies about the NDP and Naheed Nenshi. Had the conventional media done their job of taking the UCP and Danielle Smith to task for their major missteps, Rachel Notley would be our premier, once again. The media needs to be seriously reformed in Canada.
Nenshi is weak! What is his media profile on Eastern Slopes mining and Government sell out? Where is his pounding on a pulpit and talk about the evolving scandal related to AHS? Tylenol, private suites, private medicine, private lab testing, spending $100M to save $60 million on lab services, wait times in ER and surgery, the Mentzelopolis firing scandal? The roll back of environmental protection, urban tax hikes and on it goes; and all I hear is crickets. The media pays attention to Ms. Smith and her cronies, because they throw outrageous and scandalous stuff daily that the media scoops up like a dog to a bone and yet the NDP leader is too deferential to the UCP. There should be a loud and continuous vociferous reaction to any policy announcement. At least from my perspective that is the way it appears. And I like Nenshi and thought his wit and erudite thinking would be a great foil to Ms. Smith.
@Jones, that makes him a perfect advisor/policy wonk/second-in-command…it doesn’t make him an effective leader of a political party.
In other words, he’s RFK not JFK. (anybody who gets that reference, a laura secord easter egg to you!)
“the obvious conclusion is that the biggest problem faced by the NDP right now is its leader.”
TENET: That’s incorrect. A media who lies about the Alberta NDP, while continuing to glorify the UCP and Danielle Smith, are the problem. The NDP and Naheed Nenshi would announce solid policy ideas, and the media would instantly vilify them.
One thing I have noted, and this applies to both the ndp and ucp, is that they have not been “crowing” about poll numbers. This tells me things are close & and in flux. It also brings to mind Mark Twain’s (paraphrased) take on statistics – “there’s lies, damn lies, and then there’s statistics “
DJC, while you provide a detailed and concise explanation of polls and their results, my concern rests with the use of polls to drive opinion, not measure it. Based on your reader comments, I assume most are literate enough to understand poll methodologies, my concern rests with how both polls and their results are presented to the general population. For example, nothing is more frustrating than during a federal election, seeing the Bloc Quebecois support expressed on a National level (what is the value in that, knowing they only run candidates in one province?).
Starting with who is polled (landlines, cell phones, texts, websites), response rates, question framing, margin of error, right down to the interpretation of data, they are no longer an accurate assessment of the environment, but rather a means to demonstrate support for whatever the pollster was paid to query. However most media (excluding highbrow blogs like AB Politics) never properly explain the polling criteria used, nor the pollster’s intent or who hired them. Polling has become one more tool for those in power to manage the message.
After reading this comment, do you:
1) Strongly Agree
2) Slightly Agree
3) Neither Agree nor Disagree
4) Slightly Disagree
5) Strongly Disagree
I think the most worrisome conclusion is that politics in Alberta suck. It has sucked for many years and it is getting worse.
Secondly we are governed by redneck rural Alberta and that sucks even more.
Third, I am not surprised Nenshi is below Smith in popularity. He certainly is not my choice as a leader.
Fourth and the highest suck, how can people witness what is going on in this province and still approve this UCP incompetence at 46%? How is this possible? Well it is possible in Alberta where people are good at beer and vacation but bloody well nothing else. If nothing changes until next year, we are stuck with the UCP for another 4 years and by the end of that period I doubt we have a province we can be proud of. I also doubt I will be here to witness that Cirque du Soleil.
We, of course, will be dealing with the separation bonus.
@Carlos
I think you’re missing an important part of the problem, here.
In the past decades the American Oiligarchs have been eating your democracy. Everyone likes to blame the farmers and the rural voters but I suspect that they’re just more susceptible to obvious propaganda.
But it’s affecting everyone. Even when you see through it, sometimes, it can start to get through. It ratchets up anxiety and causes reactionism.
Absolutely my friend. I did not mention that because we were not at that point of the discussion yet. Inequality has destroyed our middle class and oligarchy is very much stablished in the US and soon here, just a question of time. I am sure Canadian Oligarchs will not mind a bit.
For the last 40 years, and every single year, reports come out talking about how inequality is damaging our middle class and everything else by osmosis. NOTHING has been done. Why? Well because our politicians could not careless and probably believe they are oligarchs in waiting. Nothing has been done regardless of which party.
By the way I am not blaming the farmers. I am blaming the rural mentality. Rural Alberta is truly behind this conspiracy crap and voting the UCP in. Of course not all of them, but we know where the UCP representatives are elected. It is not that difficult to figure that out. There is a reason why Danielle Smith and her mafia are constantly penalizing Edmonton and lately even Calgary. Their vindictive governing style is quite obvious as far as I am concerned.
Well, what the polls say to me is that whatever Mr. Nenshi is doing isn’t working and doing more of the same won’t work either. After the scandals and screw ups by the UCP and a majority saying they’re not doing a satisfactory job then to have the opposition support eroding to below what they got in the last election is beyond troubling. More so when Smith is trending up and Nenshi down. What the ABNDP do about that is a question for sure.
Avi Lewis calls himself an eco-socialist whatever that is but he’s just a Social Democrat like the rest of his family and virtually all the Dippers so his policy suggestions will not “gain traction Zoran Mamdani style.” Zohan Mamdani had success with progressive policies but he has credentials as a committed Democratic Socialist. To Social Democrats the word Socialism is just a label, they don’t want make real changes in the Capitalist system but to only ride on that “progressive” or “left” aura to make them look like they’ll make real changes. Having said all that Alberta isn’t New York. I’m not sure about Nenshi but he just wants to get elected and he won’t even say the name of the party he leads. WTH? Consolidating the urban vote is important but the long-term objective should be to get some balance from the rural vote and Nenshi was never the guy for that.
Mickey Rat: The problem isn’t the NDP and Naheed Nenshi. When there is a media that is so beholden to the UCP and Danielle Smith, while disregarding their major failure of a provincial government, the end result is that they will lie about the Alberta NDP and Naheed Nenshi. Something needs to be done to reform the media in Canada.
Counterpoint: “What people want is good government, a strong economy, good jobs, a competently managed healthcare system, low taxes, and a balanced budget.” sounds like an effective socialist type of government to me.
It should be easy to crush the UCP, because everyone pretty much understands that they are lying grifters. But the ABNDP are befuddled by what to do next. Of course Nenshi — oh, I don’t know — LEAD!!! Rachel Notley did well in her first bid to become premier; her reelection bid against Jason Kenney fell apart; but her final bid against Queen Danielle, one which should have been a raging bashfest, fell flat and went nowhere. When brings me to Nenshi, who seems to be tired and seemingly toothless and clawless. Someone needs to remind Nenshi that it’s okay to be angry at the UCP, because they’ve relentlessly and unashamedly ruined everything, before ruining it again.
Just Me: Rachel Notley and Naheed Nenshi aren’t the problem. A media who lies about them, while covering up the major missteps of the UCP is.
They were and are the problem if they do nothing about the lies the media says about them. They have to be more aggressive, more destructive, and more forceful in every effort. In the last election, Notley was Milquetoast in her assault on Smith, and I truly believe this fried her chances of a win. It seemed as though campaigning was too hard, and forcing more effectively messaging too much work for the overpaid consultants they hired. Nenshi is going to make the same mistake and he must address his failures head on.
Just Me: What are the Alberta NDP supposed to do when the media lies about them, and if they don’t acknowledge them the rest of the time? The media is very beholden to the UCP. Try writing a letter to the Calgary Sun and the Edmonton Sun newspapers, and criticize the UCP. You can’t do it. A frequent commenter to this blog has even said that. Any attempts he has done to write letters to those newspapers has failed. With other Postmedia owned newspapers, the letters are still heavily screened and edited. In regards to other newspapers, who aren’t under Postmedia’s domain, such as The Globe And Mail, they have columnists who criticize the UCP and Danielle Smith, and are now facing repercussions from the UCP for doing so.
How can the Alberta NDP and Naheed Nenshi be forceful, if Danielle Smith has held off the by-election for Edmonton Strathcona to the very last moment? What are the Alberta NDP and Naheed supposed to do when Danielle Smith has reduced the Alberta Legislature sessions so they hardly ever occur?
It’s like having your legs tied together, and you being told to try walking. Even though the next provincial election is a year and a half away, because Danielle Smith made a lame excuse to delay it, due to wildfires, she and the UCP are doing dirty tricks to keep their grasp on power in Alberta. What are the Alberta NDP and Naheed Nenshi supposed to do about that? One of the latest dirty antics by the UCP and Danielle Smith is gerrymandering ridings, and setting it up so it goes in their favour. Ridings that have a strong support for the Alberta NDP, are going to be taken over by UCP dominated ridings. The UCP and Danielle Smith disregarded the report that went against this, and are doing the exact opposite thing, which was shunned, because it’s undemocratic. How are the Alberta NDP and Naheed Nenshi supposed to stop this?
Danielle Smith jacked the city taxes for Calgarians and wants to insert herself in how our water is managed. Not only that, she has plans to punt the Drop-In Centre. I’m sure that would be a nice property and project for a friend.
Do we have a mayor and is it Danielle Smith?
What do we call politicians who use the office to enrich themselves and their friends?
Here’s my take…
Albertans, overall, have never been ‘trained’ to change their vote.
Other provinces vacillate between parties. We do not. It is very uncomfortable for many people in this province to even think about voting for a different party, let alone do it. Many people in AB do not differentiate between PC, Wildrose, or UCP – only that they are ‘the conservative party’ and that is the only side they will vote for. So, policy and governmental decisions do not matter. The electorate does not have to pay attention, because they know they are only voting conservative. Throw in social media disinformation and garbage podcasters, and policy matters even less.
I am born and raised in Alberta, and have lived here all my life. My riding is Wildrose territory and the epicentre of the separatist movement. I know how people here think. And they are not voting anything other than conservative. Shooting oneself in the foot doesn’t matter, nor do the facts. Especially if they come from the CBC.
[that was an attempt at some humour]
I don’t trust online panel polls, because they have an unavoidable selection bias. Only the most politically engaged people sign themselves up to participate in them, so they cannot truly reflect a random sample of the electorate.
Despite the well-documented challenges of doing live caller random phone polling in the age of cellphones and the near-universally demise of landlines, there is no substitute for that methodology.
Jerry: I believe one of the two unnamed polls was a true random-caller poll. DJC
Maybe some of the polls are scaring Smith. I keep seeing this annoying UCP ad which lies that Trudeau spent ten years trying to shut down the oil industry and that Danielle Smith saved it. It’s such BS, they are not even trying to be subtle.
They should be sued into the ditch over that or at least be reported to Elections Alberta for dishonest advertising.
A month or two ago apparently there was a different ad criticizing Nenshi.
Val: I believe there are four polls, maybe five, showing the NDP in the lead in Calgary. One, by Pollara, has been published and can be read by the public. Two are for private clients and have not been seen by the public but have been gossiped about, so we know they exist, and are said to say much the same thing as Pollara’s public poll. The fourth (and perhaps fifth) I surmise from the behaviour of both the NDP and the UCP. (I suspect they both have one and they say the same thing.) You can tell there’s a black hole in outer space by watching what the visible stars around it do as they get sucked into its gravitational field. My conclusion was reached by applying astronomy techniques to the study of Alberta politics. DJC
From your fingers typing to God’s eye. If they lose Calgary, maybe their gerrymandering will not suffice.
What did they expect, repeatedly interfering in Calgary’s business over the Green line and municipal elections, etc., and generally governing Alberta so badly?