OTTAWA – It’s a funny old world and it looks as if Donald Trump just saved supply management.
If there’s a single thing hated with abiding passion by Canadian market fundamentalists –admirers of the U.S. president almost to a man and woman, at least until the moment he started threatening Canada with massive tariffs for no good reason – it’s supply management, the system under which Canadian farmers produce eggs, poultry, and dairy products.
Supply management is, as the National Farmers Union puts it, “a unique Canadian institution.” Leastways, it’s been around since the 1960s, which is ancient history to plenty of economists and almost all journalists, so long enough to declare anything an institution.
That much, the few Canadians who are actually more than vaguely aware of how the system works can probably agree on.
But when the NFU goes on to say that supply management “provides stability in five perishable food sectors by controlling the amount produced, preventing shortages, and keeping underpriced imports from being dumped into our market,” the often-bitter disagreement begins. (The five sectors, just to be clear, are dairy, broiler chickens, laying hens, turkeys and hatching eggs. Which boil down to the three general categories noted above.)
“As a result, Canada does not experience wide fluctuations in supply and prices and our system does not require massive government subsidies that are used by other countries to support farmers’ incomes in these sectors,” says the NFU. Which is true.
But there’s no shortage of right-wing economists that any journalist can find in less than five minutes who will attack the system for acting like a cartel, getting in the way of competition, and keeping prices for poultry, milk and cheese high, particularly in comparison to the United States. This is basically true too.
Every few years there’s a concerted attack on supply management. When it happens, you can count on some farmers in Alberta with ties to the Conservative party to get particularly exercised about the fact that a lot of dairy farmers in Quebec do very well from the system and that the supply managed sector as a whole has effectively lobbied for the preservation of it ever since it was set up.
You can also count on it that farmers in Quebec will say it’s simply not negotiable, never will be, and if Canada tries to negotiate it away, that would be the end of the country. Note that federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre opposed supply management as recently as 2021, before discovering that the Conservatives couldn’t win Quebec unless they accepted the policy. Or appeared to, at least.
Now, I’m not here to relitigate that fight for one side or the other, only to say that post-pandemic inflation in food costs softened up the ground for another attack on supply management and it has seemed to me since the days I made a living covering agriculture that given the prevalence of market-fundamentalist economics in Canadian politics and the unrelenting trade pressure from the United States that sooner or later the supply management system was doomed.
This, I reckoned, was even likely when the policies of the anti-vaxxer-in-chief in Washington resulted in a massive egg shortage and soaring egg costs south of the former longest undefended border in the world. Meanwhile, prices here in the Great White North have demonstrated the as-advertised stability of a supply-managed market.
But yesterday, Mr. Trump really went and did it, imposing 25-per-cent tariffs on Everything Canadian – except cheap Canadian oil, which got off for the moment with a 10-per-cent tariff. His thought – insofar as Mr. Trump can be said to think deep thoughts – seems to be to force Canada into an unhappy union with the Benighted States.
Mr. Trump’s justification for his tariffs changes almost by the day, but one of his most consistent arguments – shared with other, more conventional, U.S. trade negotiators in recent years – has been American unhappiness with the trade implications of supply management.
But as Globe and Mail columnist Andrew Coyne wrote yesterday, expressing a point of view that is now held by most Canadians outside a few Trumpist true believers like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and some members of her United MAGA Party, “the point is not to force us to the negotiating table. The point is to break us.”
Canada has been forced to respond and respond it has.
One result is that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with only four days left in office, has never looked better – at least not since about 2015.
Another will be economic carnage on both sides of the border.
Another is near consensus in Canada that we will not only preserve our independence, we will never fully trust the United States again.
It is hard to believe that in such circumstances the survival of supply management – at least for another generation, and maybe quite a bit longer than that – will be seen as anything but essential to national security.
After all, whatever else we’re going to have to put up with in the months and years ahead, we’re not going to have to worry about where our milk and cheese, our eggs and chicken, come from.
It’ll be produced right here in Canada, for Canadians, not subject to any Trump tariffs.
That’s suddenly an unassailable argument for supply management!
Canada does not have independence which it could preserve. The economy is anchored by the housing scam. In 2020 real estate accounted for 13% of GDP, by far the largest sector. Construction, finance, forestry etc. are all tied in to the real estate economy. Mining and oil and gas extraction is 8% of the economy. US institutions own huge positions in the Canadian finance sector, and in oil and gas. 50% of Canada’s agricultural production is exported, with 60% of that going to the US. The US is the most rapacious and violent empire in history, and the Canadian military apparatus is inextricably linked to it. The top Canadian generals attend the US Army War College. The Canadian economy is dependent upon US capital and Canadian capital is dependent upon the US economy, with $500 billion, give or take, going each direction, and that dynamic is not about to end any time soon.
How is this vitriol in any way related to the subject at hand?
good response. my thought was, “so what is your point”. Obviously Murphy is upset about something, but I’m not sure beyond our military being quite integrated. It worked until Trump came along. Relax, take a breath, Trump is 78 yrs old. He isn’t going to be here for that long. Canada just will simply go on being Canada until he drops dead. By that time, the Americans will be more than happy to forget about all Trumps lies, bullying, etc.
Vitriol eaf? So you’re ok with Canada being tightly controlled by the US? The US which has shown us that they are our real enemy? The US which is trying to destroy our economy which they so much control so they can take our country. If you like it vote for the Conservatives, because Mr. Poilivere and the Cons want more of it. If you think this vulnerable position we’re in ends with Donald Trump you haven’t been paying attention…
We can only hope that the cheeseburgers do him in, sooner than later.
The same market fundamentalist arguments were used to kill the Canadian Wheat Board and turn everything over to the large private conglomerates. Yes, these kind of “protectionist” measures are necessary for national sovereignty.
I feel like we are beginning to see evidence that Donny, as full of bravado as he may be, when confronted by a strong and unyielding adversary, he will fold.
(The exception might be that televised Oval Office meeting- but maybe that was him being provoked by Vance?)
Every time Trudeau, or Merkle, or Freeland, &c. speak (or hand-shake) like an “alpha” he acts weaker.
Sounds like a better world-wide approach than waiting for him to be a rational actor.
What say others?
The Tangerine-dandered-tantrum was definitely provoked by the chain reaction sparked by Brian Glenn, reporter for the right-wing Real American Voice network when he rudely asked Ukraine President Zelensky, “Why don’t you wear a suit? Do you have a suit?…” Vice presidunce JD Vance decided to shoehorn himself into the exchange, upping Glenn’s accusation that Zelensky’s military garb was disrespectful of the Office of the presiduncy by accusing the President of partisan campaigning for Biden when he stopped at a Pennsylvania munitions factory to thank them and all Americans for their support of Ukraine (his lame rejoinder to VZ’s reminder that he and all Ukrainians who elected him have indeed thanked the US profusely many times for helping Ukraine militarily was that he hadn’t heard VZ thank America (again) during this particular, bizarre meeting). This insubordination tRump could not allow so his puerile shouting had to be especially more-insulting to Zelensky.
It was certainly impressive and ostensibly courageous of tRump, but in the context of the exchange it didn’t look all that self-confident that he was in total control of the conversation —which he tried to amend by one-upping Vance in volume (and I wouldn’t be surprised if Vance was upbraided by tRump in private afterwards). Perhaps braggadocio is a better term: arrogant and boastful bombast.
Nice photo of PeePee, looks like he just smoked a gagger with his boys in Diagolon again.
Speaking of which, I love how last night Global News profiled all the major players in the tariff war story and for some reason spotlighted His Majesty’s Disloyal Opposition Leader, as if he’s somehow involved and/or matters. If I was a betting man I’d say it was just another free opportunity, courtesy of our right wing media, to show the country PeePee’s new Captain Canada persona and attempt to distance himself from the MAGA movement before a potential election. Suffice to say, the blowhard isn’t fooling anyone as he showed his true colours long ago.
Mr. Peepers’ just smoked a gagger stare makes me think he was a contestant on Ol’ Orangehead’s “The Apprentice” only to be told by the trump himself, “you’re fired” but he thinks he’s coming back next week.
Well, I think he’s fooling a lot of people because five days ago (approximately) the Liberals were breaking through and today, they are back to being in 2nd place and not a close 2nd at that. Unless the polls lately were only done in Quebec, since when did Canadians all of a sudden get so interested in how fluidly and fast, any politician could share his thoughts in French? Or maybe it was the accusations that Carney wasn’t coming clean on his finances even though he isn’t required to until he’s actually elected. You can count on Canadians it seems to demand the unrequired from Liberal politicians while they give useless, ne’er-do-anythings like Mr. PP a complete and total pass on his entire political career.
i personally know two dairy farmers in the edmonton region. their quota is a license to print money and a gold plated asset to borrow against.
on the basis of their quotas, cdn milk producers got $470 million cash payments guaranteed in 2022-23; my acquaintances were among the recipients. they also own a few apartment bldgs. in edmonton, other farm land they rent to producers, and had the good fortune to purchase houses for their children.
the supply management system has been very good to them.
Do you think $470 million is a lot for Canada’s annual dairy production? It’s about 10$/yr per Canadian. I might go through a litre of milk in two weeks, so I’m spending $100/yr on milk and more than that on butter. I imagine I am the low end of usage among us. So I ask again, are we supposed to be outraged by payments $470 million/yr to producers? That’s just their share of the sales price, and a very small share it is. If it allows the owners of dairy farms to accumulate investment capital, so much the better. Again, why is that a problem? The real problem is the precarity of other agricultural produces, like farmers and ranchers. A few extra pennies on the pound would fix that problem too.
Supply management, what a novel idea. No wonder the conservatives are against it. The party of dig it up, cut it down, pump it up, reap it all, and sell it now, sell it all.
The tiny economic droppings offered by ‘lil pp are chilling if you parse them. Harper was an economic moron , his conscription to manage AIM done by Dani Econo-blunderpants. Donny Drumpf is following in the steps of some very great men. Adolf, Mao, Pol Pot might be his bedtime reading (jk he doesn’t read … no time … gotta tweet).
Anyway just wanted to say I wish the conservatives would finish the job they started when they got honest and dropped progressive, and drop conservative because they never want to manage or conserve. Cons have one focus … own the libs. Make others suffer. Nothing else . Too bad it has so many buyers.
Maybe ‘lil pp could go with SBPP … the Suffer, Blame and Penalize Party. Too real?
Thank you, Canada! I appreciate steroid-free, antibiotic-free, growth hormone-free dairy, eggs and poultry. I always look for the blue cow logo on milk cartons. Steady supply at affordable prices is welcome. We seem to be managing H5N1 better so far, too. Let’s hope that continues.
Did I miss something in Danielle Smith’s less than extensive list of countermeasures to the Trump trade war? I thought I heard her say on the CBC that she was going to ask for Canadian labels in stores and she was going to stop the purchase of U.S. spirits as well as their rice water pretending to be beer. That ought to put the orange cheeto on his heels. Is she even going to ask her retailers to take the U.S. product off the shelves? Was there more to the list that I missed? If not, it seems her response is pretty thin gruel.
Thin indeed.
Thin gruel when defending Canada is to expected from a MAGA centric Perhaps fantasizing a future gig as Governor Gretzky’s assistant.
Plausible. She does like those Oilers games. Her Cabinet ministers and staff do, too. Perhaps I’ve said too much.
Yes, one of the unintended effects of Trump’s actions will be the dis-integration between our economies. Its hard to deal with a person who breaks agreements he negotiated and signed a few years ago. It is even harder to deal with someone whose motives are concealed by shifting pretext. No one really believes it is really about drugs crossing our border to the US, as the quantities are minuscule.
In addition to the confusion and anger the impulse is also for us to get as as far away from crazy as possible. So we will avoid dealing with the US as much as possible, not just out of spite, but also for our sanity and self preservation.
Interestingly, our Canadian supply management system now also seems more robust and stable than the US system where egg prices are sky high. So maybe here’s a good deal for their very transactional President, we’ll send you some eggs if you forget about all those tariffs.
The Marketing Boards work well for Canada. Our products are not contaminated with unnecessary chemicals. Some may complain Americans pay less for their diary and chicken. On the other hand Canadian farmers and consumers all manage to do just fine. Everyone knows what to expect in a volatile world. I’d like the Wheat Board back. It ought not have been eliminated. Not having our markets flooded with imported food, does really give us independence. I’ve always believed if countries can not produce the basics in country, they are more likely to become targets.
“[E]conomic carnage on both sides of the border”? Let’s not oversell this. Respected University of Calgary economist Dr Trevor Tombe is on record as saying that a widespread tariff and trade war with the Benighted States is likely to trigger a “moderate-sized” recession, not an economic catastrophe. If memory serves, his estimate of the drop in GDP was in the range of between two and three percent (2-3%).
Sure, there will be some job losses and some tough times, but nothing we haven’t gotten through before. It certainly won’t trigger anything along the lines of the Great Depression of the 1930s.
And who knows? It may trigger Canada’s lazy, risk-averse corporate sector to finally diversify their markets away from the circus to our south.
Supply management has another feature that has become evident with the bird flu outbreak – by allowing smaller farms to exist instead of forcing them to merge for survival, firebreaks are created against disease spread. The huge US farms being hit with bird flu are each singly responsible for a large market share, increasing the vulnerability of the system. Which I suppose means supply management is stabilizing the market, but this aspect was never emphasized.
Possibly, Canadian supply management has a bright future in many different sectors, apart form milk and eggs.
Who knows, reckless U. S. policies could be a blessing, not a curse.