In a refreshing sign of intelligent life on the Great Plains of Alberta, voters in the Lethbridge-West by-election sent New Democrat Rob Miyashiro to the provincial Legislature in Edmonton yesterday.
Judging from the unofficial numbers on the Elections Alberta website, the vote appeared to be a squeaker until about 11 p.m. when results of the first of two advance polls rolled in, swamping the hopes of United Conservative Party candidate John Middleton-Hope, who up until then had appeared to be within 200 votes of Mr. Miyashiro.
With all advance poll results having reported by about a quarter after 11, the final unofficial tally was 7,239 votes for Mr. Miyashiro to 6,089 for Mr. Middleton-Hope, a difference of 1,150 in the NDP candidate’s favour. Official results will be posted by Elections Alberta on Saturday.
So, obviously, the Opposition NDP did a far better job of organizing its supporters to get their votes in early than did the governing UCP.
The UCP’s effort to schedule the by-election a few days before Christmas, presumably on the theory many NDP-inclined students at the University of Lethbridge in the riding would be out of town with their families, also didn’t work.
And if the UCP thought running a former Lethbridge police chief would do the trick for them, that flopped too. Mr. Middleton-Hope is a current member of the Lethbridge City Council. Mr. Miyashiro is a former city councillor.
Mount Royal University political science professor Keith Brownsey said last night the by-election results “are a very good indication of NDP strength.”
“The NDP focused on economic issues,” Dr. Brownsey told AlbertaPolitics.ca. “There was also, anecdotally, a lot of concern over pensions” – that is, Premier Danielle Smith’s plan to replace the Canada Pension Plan with an Alberta pension.
Mr. Miyashiro replaces former NDP cabinet minister Shannon Phillips, who resigned her seat on June 10 after representing the Lethbridge-West voters since the 2015 general election. In her decision to leave politics, she cited the refusal of the Alberta Serious Incident Response Team to charge Lethbridge police officers who spied on her and circulated profane and insulting memes about her.
“I can take being criticized on a political level,” she said at the time of her resignation. “What I can’t take is what happened from the LPS, given that it is so far outside the acceptable norms of the rule of law and the institutions of liberal democracy, for which they have never been held accountable and have never shown a whiff of responsibility.”
Naturally, the by-election was described repeatedly in media as a crucial first test of NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi, the former three-term Calgary mayor who was overwhelmingly chosen by party members in June to replace former premier Rachel Notley.
While Mr. Nenshi has been criticized for his low-key approach to the party’s province-wide voter engagement strategy up to now, last night’s results would suggest that it isn’t doing any harm and may be working.
The 13,561 ballots cast amounted to about 37 per cent of the riding’s approximately 37,000 eligible voters.
While the turnout in the riding was over 60 per cent in the last two general elections, this is a significant turnout for a by-election, Dr. Brownsey observed. “Some by-elections, as we have seen recently, are a good indication of how voters are feeling.”
Mr. Miyashiro won a clear majority, 53.38 per cent of the vote, in the only NDP riding south of Calgary. That matched Ms. Phillips’ 53.92-per-cent showing in the 2023 general election.
Of the votes cast, only 233 were for the Alberta Party’s Layton Veverka, the only other candidate to contest the by-election. So the Alberta Party, it is fair to say, continues having difficulty getting on the political radar in this province.
While a byelection today certainly does not predict an election in a few years, we can now breath a sigh of relief. The unexpected and concerning low key approach by Nenshi did not appear to be doing harm here. And both the turn out and margin of victory are solid for a byelection and in this riding.
Of course the NDP may have been more motivated to win and governments often don’t do well in byelections. It wasn’t a UCP stronghold before, so Smith will probably just do her best to dismiss or more likely just ignore the results, despite all her efforts to pick a date to her advantage. One wonders what the results would have been if that date was chosen more fairly.
The UCP tends to flood the zone in Alberta politics with their constant government communications, mostly paid for of course by us. Smith’s has a regular ability to say and do things, sometimes outrageous, that attract a lot of attention and seem to appeal to and motivate her base. But as Nenshi probably well knows from his time in municipal politics, over exposure and being too polarizing are not always good things.
The UCP also does its best to silence dissent and try give the impression that most Albertans are ok with what they are doing. However, tonight where it counts, those who turned out to vote in Lethbridge certainly gave a different message.
Even though voter turnout in this particular by-election was very low, voters still sent the UCP a strong message that they aren’t in support of the UCP’s very pricey blunders, which cost millions and billions of dollars, the increased costs of utilities and insurance, poverty rates climbing, improperly maintained public healthcare, and public education, and a bunch of other problems the UCP have caused. Danielle Smith was trying to be cunning and set up this by-election, believing people would be distracted from the Christmas holidays. It backfired on her. Voter turnout in Alberta has been historically lower than elsewhere in Canada, and people need to be more engaged. Hopefully, the UCP are going to be finished off in 2027.
Turnout wasn’t actually that bad in the context of byelections in this country. The recent federal byelection in Cloverdale-Langley City, which resulted in a Conservative super-majority, only saw a 16.3% turnout.
Jerry: I agree. As noted, the Smith Government timed the by-election awkwardly in hopes many NDP supporters would be out of town – as I have no doubt many were. I do expect this to lead to future UCP efforts to restrict advance polls. DJC
The NDP chose a strong candidate in Rob Miyashiro, who is well-respected and popular in Lethbridge. They also ran a solid campaign, motivating voters to turn up at the advance polls.
Shannon Phillips was a hard-working MLA, present in her constituency and also well-respected by her constituents.
Lethbridge police should never forget the message that voters sent to them in last night’s by-election, too. Stop clubbing people in Star Wars costumes. Stop running back and forth over deer. For Pete’s sake, the deer in Lethbridge are known for politely looking left and right while using crosswalks; drivers stop accordingly. And the kicker: stop violating civil rights, specifically those of female cabinet ministers with whom you disagree. ASIRT may have a TIA policy, but the people have long memories. Those kinds of things stick and are hard to erase.
It may be time for the Alberta NDP to adapt the phrase coined by James Carville and change it to, “The CPP Pension, Stupid”. Meanwhile, Danielle Smith is pleading with Doug Ford to stop standing up for Canadians and capitulate with her to Trump’s bullying tactics. Smith wants Ford to join her and prostrate himself before Donald Trump.
I saw Doug Ford on the American stations. Given that isn’t his usual beat, he did o.k. and represented Canada much better than Smith would. Did wonder how Smith was taking Ford’s prime time exposure, given she most likely would have considered that all hers.
Its nice to know, while the Federal Liberals are getting their house in order the country can reply on Ford to some extent. Smith may find Ford will have something to say when and if she tries for half the CPP funds. That ought to be very entertaining.
With all due respect, your opening paragraph is just the fodder the UCP can use in any rural riding. I can see the quote: “NDP shill calls all hard working Albertans as lacking intelligence. Vote UCP for some respect.” Just saying.
Lefty, I am not a spokesperson for the NDP or even a member, as far as I know. Bloggers gotta blog! DJC
After looking at the Election Alberta results, it appears that in Lethbridge-West voter preference for Mr. Miyashiro, while not overwhelming, is spread throughout the riding. Of the 57 polling stations, Mr. Miyashiro won 31, Mr. Middleton-Hope won 23, and 3 were a tie.
Interestingly, more people voted at the advance poll than at the regular polling stations. Election results, however, seem to match the overall results: In the advance polls the NDP candidate won 54% of the vote to the UCP candidate’s 44%. Total results gave the NDP 53% to the UCP 45%. If you subtract the advance poll votes from the eventual totals, the NDP would have still won the election, 3624 to 3139.
https://results.elections.ab.ca/8488
@djc
Exactly who at ASIRT is taking these decisions to not press charges? Ms. Phillips case is not the only recent case. I do not remember all of the details of the others, but I recall the refusal reasons seeming dodgy.
Also, is it ASIRT and/or the Crown Prosecution Service?
Gerald: It was ASIRT in this case. The next fallback for police immunity to the rule of law is the CPS. They often seem to be unwilling to lay charges even when ASIRT thinks they are appropriate. Interestingly, while they will allow people to beat and seriously injure suspects who presented no danger, they won’t let them confiscate racy photos from cellular phones. Tells you a lot about Alberta, I think. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/red-deer-rcmp-officer-faces-charges-over-transfer-of-intimate-images-on-detained-person-s-phone-1.7411617 DJC
Nothing to see here.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/rcmp-officers-cleared-by-asirt-in-arrest-of-prominent-alberta-first-nations-chief-1.7415237
Voila!
I am disappointed in Lethbridge, but not entirely surprised. I like Rob, however, a vote for Rob is a vote for Nenshi. Remember that every vote for Nenshi is a vote for DEI ideology. It is also a vote for Islamic ideology. It is a vote for a “king that did what was right in his own eyes.” – This never worked out well for Israel or Judea and I believe that he is not the ideal leader for Alberta or Canadians anywhere.
Such vile nonsense. Nevertheless, here at AlbertaPolitics.ca, we are committed to wide-open discussion and free expression, so I’ll publish it. But you’re sailing close to the line, Prefontaine, so be careful or you comment will be spiked. DJC
What is evident in Lethbridge, and all of Canada where vile nonsense is at the core, America dumbing down and hegemony. Anyone doubt that Po Po Poliviere will be PM? Smith crawled into her office on her pork belly by way Brooks no less.
Disappointed hey ? That’s too bad. My guess is you should get used to that feeling. You’ve been taken in by a small group of grievance based hucksters that are alienating you from your community at large and probably most of the folks you know. You like feeling included in this group because it satisfies your ego and confirms your biases, I’m sure there’s a lot of dopamine involved in the “digging” into this nonsense, be it on Facebook or telegram or rumble or wherever you find it.
In fact, I think it’s more likely this is representing a demographic shift, glacial in its speed, that is now starting to impact alberta. Time was the UCP shenanigans in Lethbridge would have worked. Their candidate of choice was extremely reasonable, (did I read former police ?) current councillor, obviously with a lot of support in the community. They even ran games with the demographics of students (though if you think students blindly vote NDP, boy are you off the mark), and that area of the province is NOTORIOUSLY conservative. The problem is the UCP has decided to paint themselves with the crazy brush, and now it’s getting all over everyone. Does anyone who reads this blog think they have another THREE years before the wheels fall off and they collapse in a maze of blame games and infighting ?
Normal people don’t want to make hating trans kids their entire brand, normal people want a stable pension administered by the federal government, normal people do not want to kidnap drug users and hide them from society, they don’t want to hoard guns, mine the eastern slopes or shoot endangered animals. They want healthcare, see recent events in the United States for an example of how folks feel about that one.
Normal albertans can see what this gang of incompetent, hopelessly corrupt FOOLS is up to, and they don’t like it. Get used to your disappointment, frankly, it’s nothing next to our anger.
Very good points here, Bird. A couple of comments: I think you’re right about a demographic shift, although such things are like Ernest Hemingway’s comment about bankruptcy: They happen gradually, then suddenly. You’re right that Southern Alberta is notoriously conservative (both Big C and small) but not necessarily Lethbridge itself. There has traditionally been a significant Liberal vote there that now seems to have transferred itself to the NDP. But I doubt this victory will change the voting behaviour of people in the surrounding rural areas – even those who don’t want mining in the Eastern Slopes. What impact the pension issue will have is, again in my opinion, a significant wild care that may have the potential to change behaviour. DJC
Peter Lougheed’s PCs once attempted to disenfranchise university students during an election, claiming they would have to vote in person where their parents lived, even though they were 18 and older. Students don’t all vote one way, but that attempt at disenfranchisement guaranteed my presence at the polls where I lived. Maybe some students had issues with the gaming of the date of this by-election and drove the message home.
I was one of those students Lougheed affected. The move cost him the riding the U of A resides in. It was a very big deal on campus. That election marked my first provincial non-conservative vote.
The day that Smith decides on taking over the CPP will be the end of an era for her. She can bandage over the incompetence by parachuting in Harper but she can not BS a senior. IMO and it was mentioned in your article ( “There was also, anecdotally, a lot of concern over pensions”) the day she jumps the shark, it is over for the UCP. As we all know there is a reason they will not release the Alberta citizen opinion data on the the CPP.
And now they won’t release the chief federal actuary’s report regarding the CPP.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/cpp-actuary-report-doesnt-estimate-alberta-share-1.7415402
You are still grudging in your acknowledgement that NDP Leader Nenshi may know what he’s doing.
David, just quit your had-wringing and realize we’re in a long-distance race to the 2027 election. Lethbridge West had an excellent candidate, but Nenshi can take some credit for the win.
As commentators have said, it’s the bread and butter issues that propel a political party to victory, not hair-on-fire screaming.
As an aside, I wish some of the commentators to your blog would cool down their rhetoric about how dumb rural Albertans and old people are. That does not help one iota in the current political discourse.
And, as a second aside, the bizarre and nasty comments above should not be given space in your forum. This is not a case of free expression.
Andy: I have one regular commenter who insults rural folk and seniors regularly. However, on the other hand, he (I assume he’s a he, not that that matters) never uses profanity, always comments on the subject I was writing about, and expresses sincerely held opinions. So I’m not about to banish him for being repetitive. As for my concerns about Mr. Nenshi’s strategy, they persist and I wouldn’t be an honest commentator if I didn’t express them from time to time, especially when I feel the evidence tends to support them. I’m not an NDP spokesperson. Let’s wait for a couple of good-quality polls to be made available to the public and see what kind of story they tell. DJC
Reading other publications (ie MSM) or other blogs, the writing has a remarkable similarity to DC’s.
Yeah, strange how a guy who spent years, (decades?) writing for a newspaper writes in a style reminiscent of a newspaper.
Back 40 odd years ago, the sarcastic comment of NDP organizers was by-elections, we are really good at those. It turns out now the party is even better – we win them. Turn out in by-elections is usually low. So count me in the delighted column. As to the Nenshi approach, as long as he is out in, Warburg, Wildwood, Vegreville, and Entwhistle Main Streeting and shaking hands with John and Edna Countrywide, then I reckon that is the right thing to do for all of 2025. Pick and target some rurban and northern rural ridings that look promising and work them for all they are worth. Press exposure is highly over rated.
I suspect that leading up to the next provincial election, the UCP will engage in considerable gerrymandering to wash-out the urban vote, and other weird shenanigans.
Voter IDs, anyone? And not driver’s licenses, because they can be faked.
Congratulations, Rob Miyashiro! Your representation will help the people of Lethbridge and the NDP the people of Alberta.
(I can almost guess which portfolio Mr Miyashiro will be assigned.)
Big mistake electing Miyashiro, mark my words!
HC: Do you have some basis for this claim, or are you just being objectionable? DJC