I’d like to say the rats are leaving the sinking ship, but I don’t think Travis Toews or Sonya Savage are rats, and I’m not certain the United Conservative Party is sinking.
With that caveat, it is a fact that Finance Minister Toews and Environment Minister Savage will not be seeking re-election as members of the version of the UCP led by Premier Danielle Smith.
Say what you will of the policies they advanced, both were capable cabinet ministers and members of what we might call the rapidly diminishing sane wing of the UCP. It is entirely understandable that neither of them would want to risk the damage to their reputations that would have been done by being part of a Smith Government with an electoral mandate.
Mr. Toews, MLA for Grande Prairie-Wapiti and finance minister in both Jason Kenney’s and Ms. Smith’s governments, ran for the leadership of the party against Ms. Smith and was narrowly defeated on the sixth ballot. Ms. Smith had 53.8 per cent of the final vote; Mr. Toews had 46.2 per cent.
An accountant and a rancher, the first-term MLA was a powerful and influential minister under Mr. Kenney, much less so under Ms. Smith.
It’s said here that as a genuinely austerity minded Conservative, there is no way he could have been very happy with Ms. Smith’s high-spending approach to contesting the expected 20-23 election. It must have nearly killed him to publicly tout his Feb. 28 budget.
In a letter he posted on social media this morning, Mr. Toews said that after “deliberate and prayerful consideration, I have decided not to seek re-election.”
Ms. Savage, a lawyer and energy industry lobbyist before running for the first time in the 2019 provincial election, was well-known and respected in the Alberta oilpatch when she was given the energy portfolio by Mr. Kenney. As energy minister she opposed the end of the polluter-pay principle advocated by lobbyist Danielle Smith and later by Premier Danielle Smith.
In Ms. Smith’s first cabinet Ms. Savage was demoted to environment minister. She also faced a strong challenge in her Calgary-North West riding from the NDP’s Michael Lisboa-Smith.
Her decision was reported early this afternoon by Radio Canada’s Jean–Emmanuel Fortier on social media.
Responding to Mr. Toews’s announcement, Opposition Finance Critic and former NDP environment minister Shannon Philips, wished him well in a tweet. “I do not admire his record … but he conducts himself with decency and is mostly grounded in reality, unlike the new crop of Smith candidates.”
However, the Lethdridge-West NDP MLA criticized Mr. Toews’s record in a tweet thread for, among other things, being “one of the largest drivers of costs on Albertans.”
“He cost Albertans over $600 million in higher income taxes, he gave Alberta the highest auto insurance rates in Canada, he grabbed control of teachers’ pensions, without consultation, provoking an unnecessary conflict with educators, and during the pandemic, he appeared to be the only person in Alberta who figured a pay cut for nurses and other health professionals was ‘reasonable,’” she said. (I have edited her statements, made in a series of tweets, to summarize them in a single quote.)
As for Ms. Savage, well, she will have to live with ignominy of being the minister in charge of Mr. Kenney’s notorious “War Room,” officially and misleadingly known as the Canadian Energy Centre.
Still. Both were among the more capable and sensible UCP ministers. As such, they will probably be missed, and not just by the UCP.
It remains to be seen which other members of Ms. Smith’s cabinet and caucus, if any, conclude that discretion is the better part of valour.
Naturally, possibly as a result of Mr.Toews’s timing, there have also been rumours today that Ms. Smith may call an early election before the scheduled May 29 date while she still enjoys some lingering political benefit for not being Jason Kenney.
You can add to Savage’s woes, presiding over Jason Kenney’s failed attempt to restart coal mining on the Eastern Slopes. When Teck Resources says “Meh” and only Australian penny stock companies are interested, it’s a bad sign. When almost everyone vehemently disagrees with the idea, it’s much, much worse.
Whether Toews and Savage will be missed depends on who replaces them. If the Take Back Alberta Party manages to get replacements nominated, it’ll be interesting to see if they have any qualifications beyond a pulse. But Toews and Savage will only be “missed” if their replacements manage to win their ridings.
As to the remnants of Kenney’s vanity project: are there any recognizably adult members of the UCP still in the cabinet?
I have read somwhere that Smith intends to appoint candidates in those two ridings. Contested nominations would be messy for the UCP, and that whole Democracy thing is so darned inconvenient for the party. I expect those appointed candidates will be TBA-approved well in advance.
Daniel: This appears to be correct, and it is why most political parties allow for this appointment method in their constitutions. It also allows the leader to parachute in high-profile candidates into a riding the party might not be sure of winning, a category into which Calgary-Noirth West might fall. What happens there will tell us a lot about the direction the UCP is heading. DJC
Are they leaving because of Smith or are they trying to avoid lawsuits they may end up being involved in? After bashing Smith the way they did, then kissing up to her when she won certainly pissed off a lot of Albertans likely many in their own ridings and likely they know the writings on the wall, like David suggests.
Alan K. Spiller: Good points. You know as well as I do how these pseudo conservatives and Reformers are. Preston Manning is someone who helped create the UCP. Now he gets to watch it unravel. Seeing Danielle Smith’s social events, and there are plenty of seniors in attendance. So easy to fool. We never saw this level of stupidity under Peter Lougheed.
Snag a gold plated pension then abandon the people of Alberta to a bunch of loons. Well played, well played.
JS: Alberta MLAs don’t have any pension, gold plated or otherwise. They do get a payout as any employee would. MLAs should have a pension, in my opinion, but Ralph Klein got rid of it years ago when he knuckled under to Jason Kenney, then the leader of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. DJC
My sweetie couldn’t believe Alberta MLAs don’t get a pension, but if Toews or Savage had to run for a second term (they are both first-time MLAs), this time under Danielle Smith, in order to serve for the minimum six years to be eligible (like in some other jurisdictions), it’d probably be the hardest two years in their political careers (although the last half a year can’t have been any picnic).
Scotty: “In the months before he called an election, Klein worked to put as much distance between himself and the old leader as possible. He reduced the number of cabinet ministers from 26 to 17, cut more than 2,500 of the province’s 32,000 civil service jobs and ended pensions for MLAs elected since 1989.” — Ralph Klein’s remarkable political life, CBC News · Posted: Mar 29, 2013 2:00 PM MDT | Last Updated: March 29, 2013 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ralph-klein-s-remarkable-political-life-1.1330371
Also:
https://www.assembly.ab.ca/members/related-resources/mla-remuneration/2019-2020-mla-remuneration
Unfortunately the same thing happened here. As part of Mike Harris’ “Common Sense Revolution” Ontario MPPs’ pensions were eliminated. They were almost revived in 2019 when leaders of the NDP and Conservatives agreed to reinstate the concept for members sitting in the legislature at the time. Unfortunately Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne deep sixed the plan because her party would take the heaviest political hit. Did it matter? Doug Ford’s Conservatives reduced Wynne’s caucus to a handful of seats and easily won reelection in 2022. To think his government would revive the idea is to dream the impossible. Nevertheless, talk of “gold plated” pensions for provincial members seems to persist.
I agree with you that MLAs should have a pension. Those that enter politics in good faith, as a form of public service, must put whatever career they have on hold (obviously this doesn’t apply to professional politicians such as Jason Kenney) and should not suffer financially for that. However, having a pension means that an MLA does not have to take measures, while they hold their seat, to ensure some financial security for their post-Legislature life. Given the historically cosy relationship between the O&G industry and conservative politicians here in Alberta, the measures to be taken are pretty obvious. Those non-executive board seats are a pretty sweet deal.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the hidden logic behind Kenney’s advocacy of this idea, and Klein’s adoption of it. Well, maybe that’s attributing too much subtlety to Klein. Somebody behind him, then.
Travis is a loss.
Good to see Savage go. Sooner the better for her.
Uh the UCP was unable to account for 4 billion in covid spending on his watch. BILLION.
Troubling for an accountant, even more troubling folks seem to
Think he was a capable and honest cabinet minister. These people carried out a raid on our government and they knew what they were doing and other folks may forget about it but this bird will not be doing that.
So, when Danielle Smith proposed R-Star during her days as a O & G lobbyist, those who likely told her to go and pound sand are getting their just deserts. It appears that, one by one, those who laughed at Smith in her pre-premier period are being ousted as fast as Take Back Alberta can plug their nominations with someone slavishly loyal to Smith, Oh, and FreeDUMB, too.
The current count of departing UCP MLAs is around 15, which to me seems a bit high for a first term government. Perhaps Smith is wondering if it was something she said or something she did, but probably not. I suspect she is more focused on other things now.
However, it is not just the numbers, but who are leaving and who are staying. The departures seem to be from the more sane wing of the UCP. I am really not surprised Toews is leaving. At current oil prices, which are lower than the those used for his budget projections, Alberta is running a deficit estimated to be around $3 billion. Now there is still a lot of time left in the year for oil prices to recover, but I doubt Toews wants to risk being known as the Finance Minister who balanced the budget and then went into a deficit again. I also doubt he is that comfortable with a number of Smith’s kookier ideas, which it is uncertain whether she has abandoned or not.
Savage’s departure has to even hurt more, happening later on the same day and not as expected as Toews. So it is a bit of a blow for the UCP. It also does not help she was in a close, competitive riding and was a high profile, fairly well regarded Calgary MLA.
I feel we are close to an election, so probably most of those inclined not to run again have already decided or announced this, but it is possible there will still be a few more. If so, it is likely they will also be from the more sane wing of the UCP, which may now be transforming itself not back into the old Wildrose Party, but into something more like the Wildrose Independence Party.
Toews had a lot of support amongst UCP voters during the leadership campaign. How many of those will be willing to vote for DS now he has in essence registered a non-confidence vote for the Smith-it’s?
Is there any lingering benefit? At any rate, Savage and Toews have now passed judgement on the newer version of the UCP. No benefits to be found it seems. This new version is even more putrid than version 1, so it seems time to head for the exit. Is the party over? I am not sure, is it the Undead Corpse Party as yet? Weekend at Danni’s or something else. Look out for others abandoning the party soon, and the ghost of Harry Strom. This will tell the tale.
So the word of the day is a continuance of
“the Ides of March “, ie : Loyal
So is Dani thinking et tu ?
or is she already plotting with the TBA for new candidates ?
And then there’s PP ,from his majesties ” loyal ” opposition, I would love to be a fly on the wall to see what Stephen &Preston made of that especially after Biden called out the Cons for not standing up for gender equality, ouch.!!! Balli is going to really ramp up the bots to try and keep up….I smell a Parisian Xmas…
This is gd clever writing! ==> ‘As energy minister she opposed the end of the polluter-pay principle advocated by lobbyist Danielle Smith and later by Premier Danielle Smith.’
Alberta’s United Conservative Party was born divided—not unlike the Conservative Party of Canada, the creation of which also involved treachery federal ProgCons resented as their veteran party, like its Alberta namesake, was swallowed whole, kicking and screaming. And in both cases it became plain that erstwhile ProgCons moved their votes elsewhere, as they plainly must have done in Alberta in 2019 when the incumbent NDP government lost the election but kept several times the number of seats it traditionally held before its upset victory four years earlier, making it a substantial Loyal Opposition to the upstart UCP. Both new parties kept the ‘conservative’ name but abandoned traditional Tory principles, yet only the Albertan one doubled the irony by actually calling itself “United.”
Of course the difference is the time it took before the inconsolable became unconcealable—a dozen years for the CPC and only when its Dr Stephen Frankenstein freed his monster after its nine-year government lost the 2015 federal election, but less than half a term for the UCP when its Dr Jason Frankenstein was instead attacked by his own creation. But when things fall apart, they really fall apart, and in Alberta where there’s an election —the UCP’s first incumbency test—in just 65 days from today, things seem to be really, really falling apart.
The province has been leading the nation in political drama since Progressive Conservative premier Allison Redford resigned under a cloud of scandal in the Spring of 2014 —not so dramatic in political context, perhaps, nor quite so surprising as her unexpected 2012 election defeat of the Wildrose party leader of the opposition Danielle Smith who has since melodramatized Alberta politics by repeatedly turning up like the proverbial bad penny. Smith’s waylaying of the deeply troubled and divided UCP last summer to become non-elected premier by proffering policies so controversial —even unconstitutional—that the few remaining sutures holding the party together are straining to the breaking point, can only be topped by the province’s most critical election in half a century. It promises to give Albertans and their fellow Canadians every penny-worth of dramatic climax, and perhaps even some change to spare.
Observers have speculated on how and when this dramatic tension will be resolved: resignations for some UCP MLAs, as we’ve seen, and announcements by others that they won’t be running in the fast approaching May 29th election, the latter having to be done before the writ is dropped in, one would expect, about a month from now. But the dropping out of such high-profile cabinet ministers, though not the first, can only increase the tension within the UCP caucus and party and cast further doubt that the relatively moderate faction, now two more MLAs lighter, will be able to temper Smith’s extremism. Finance minster Toews says he did some praying while deciding whether to seek incumbency or not, probably sensitive to the fact that his departure lessens the UCP’s odds of winning and maybe costing some of his colleagues their jobs. It’s conspicuous—and probably significant—that former energy minister Sonya Savage’s same decision was announced on the same day. These are indictments of Smith’s leadership, and they might presage more which, at this critical juncture, even a little bit more of a trickle will seem like a torrent of consequence. And of course there are only so many days left for the party to nominate replacements who, reasonably inferred, will be of the Take-Back-Alberta faction. What’s truly remarkable is that the dropouts are first-time MLAs: how much more damning can it get? Dare I even ask?
There was speculation that Smith might repeal the fixed-term statute so’s to extend the current one until, presumably, polls look more favourable. I figured it’d have to be done by the time the writ would have been dropped ( which allows for a month of campaigning), and that if she did opt to extend past the four-year mark, it’d probably shake more MLAs out of the running. Now there’s speculation that she might call an early election to—uh—what?— cut more dropouts off at the pass? And I figure if there’s anybody dumb enough to try that, it’d hafta be ‘you-know-who.’
Hang onto your hats, my Alberta friends! This movie ain’t over yet and, considering Danielle Smith has already been instrumental in destroying two parties of the right, there’s no reason to presume she won’t go for the trifecta. Y’all gonna get your money’s worth, one way or t’other : one long-circulated, pocket-worn, very green penny’s worth.
Anything more would be an embarrassment of riches.
1. Conrad Black, Stephen Harper, Preston Manning, Jason Kenny, Danielle Smith, all together with who else attended the conference…..I spy with my little eye, something that is ________
(national observer- paywall for me)..
2. Two articles in the Tyee from yesterday, connected by the AER
re:taiilponds leak* @Kearl Lake and earthquakes @Reno, AB
* Sonya Savage wouldn’t respond for comment to the Tyee, and I’m curious if the situation with the fracking “possibly ” causing the quakes would come under her responsibility ? And if the head of the AER wasn’t keeping her informed because of her nixing the Rstar ?
Politics in Canada has developed into a complicated mass of spider webs ,or the feeling of being in a giant corn maze.
From the CBC story about these 2 announcements:
(Danielle) “Smith issued statements Friday saying she will work with the party and local constituency associations to hand-pick candidates for both ridings, as the election looms 10 weeks away.”
According to Dave Cournoyer’s excellent blog, the UCP has scheduled a nomination meeting for Grande Prairie Wapiti for April 3. If they hadn’t even scheduled the meeting for more than a week from now, it is pretty hard to claim exceptional circumstances that warrant deviating from the pre-set schedule. It does make you wonder what kind of candidate Danielle Smith is hoping to install – or avoid – in Grande Prairie Wapiti.
Sonya Savage is an interesting case as well, in that she had already won the UCP nomination in Calgary North West, and now she suddenly wants to spend more time with her family. Notably, Ms. Savage won her nomination last August, when it seemed reasonably likely Travis Toews (Savage was also part of Toews’ leadership team) would be the replacement for Jason Kenney. Because she had already accepted the nomination, it is probably more accurate to say Ms. Savage has withdrawn from the election, rather than chosen not to run again. Given the timing of her announcement, I suspect her running again was contingent on Travis Toews running.
Sonya Savage’s withdrawal has another consequence as well; by accepting the nomination, then backing out, she has made it easier for other MLAs to do the same, in the event they felt some kind of honour commitment to stay in the race. This must be especially tempting for some MLAs that accepted their nomination prior to Danielle Smith taking the party’s crown.
Finally, I would love to be a fly in Toews’ and Savage’s polling booth on election day, if they choose to show up.
It’s an interesting thought that they won’t take a chance on the UCP losing the election, whilst they are again elected. This would give Savage and Toews a chance to attempt rebuild the UCP without the bone headed elements. But maybe they see it to be better to let the bone head element burn themselves out either way, election win or not.
Correction: the UCP nomination on April 3rd is in Grande Prairie, the urban riding currently held by Tracy Allard, who is also not running again, although she stated it was due to her health, having recently disclosed she has Parkinson Disease.
Toews’ seat is Grande Prairie-Wapiti, a mixed urban-rural constituency which includes an eastern sliver of the City of Grande Prairie, but mostly consists of the County of Grande Prairie No. 1 and some of the small towns within its borders, such as Beaverlodge, Grovedale, Sexsmith and Wembley.
Thanks, Jerry. Easy come, easy go! That graph is gone again. I always say my readers are my editors. I seldom say, my editors sometimes disagree. When in doubt, as the Canadian Press used to say, take it out! DJC
Danielle Smith certainly has tried to distance herself from Jason Kenney, pretending that this is a new government, which it isn’t. I think of her as Jason Kenney 2.0, bad and badder. The election campaign: “If you thought things couldn’t get worse with Jason Kenney, I’m Danielle Smith. I’ll make your authoritarian nightmares come true. Elect me and I’ll seize your CPP, put your health up for auction and dumb down your children. Life as you know it will implode. Rogue “pastors” and badland believers are in charge now. Lock up your gays. Right is wrong. Might is right. Welcome to hell.”
It’s not as if she’d actually say this out loud, of course.
Let’s not forget Sonya Savage’s role in this.
https://thenarwhal.ca/alberta-tc-energy-kxl-delaware/
Incompetence, revisited! Set up a lobbying company, then discover you can’t lobby because you forgot to mail the cheque for business taxes. Classic Cons!
“Ooh, the wheel in the sky keeps on turnin’. Wheel in the sky keeps on turnin'”
Coincidentally, so does the revolving door. Where, “In politics, a revolving door is a situation in which personnel move between roles as legislators and regulators, on one hand, and members of the industries affected by the legislation and regulation, on the other, analogous to the movement of people in a physical revolving door. Political analysts claim that an unhealthy relationship can develop between the private sector and government, based on the granting of reciprocated privileges to the detriment of the nation, and can lead to regulatory capture.” That particular observation sounds somewhat familiar.
In any case, the circumstances are a constant reminder of another interesting statement that is seemingly apropos:
“I’ll be long gone before some smart person ever figures out what happened inside this Oval Office.” Or, in this particular case, the Legislative Assembly of Alberta.
One never knows whether to laugh or cry as the Universal Joke that is existence continues to both unfold and evolve into the further follies of “The Smartest Guys (Gals) in the Room: The Next Chapter(s)”.
So, expanding on the above comment means restating once again, that according to the current Premier, “Alberta is entrepreneurial in the truest sense, as described by Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter who coined the term creative destruction. We do not spend a lot of time thinking about how government should intervene to protect legacy industries.”
What Danielle Smith cleverly avoids stating is that in, “His most famous book, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (published in 1942), contained his pioneering description of creative destruction and prognosis that socialism would replace capitalism. [Because], These entrepreneurs who benefitted from the competitive marketplace of capitalism themselves would lobby for government to limit competition and regulate industrial structure. Crony capitalism ensues when politically connected large businesses prosper due to the favors politicians grant them in exchange for votes, campaign contributions and other forms of political support.” In the meantime, it appears that the corporate/state program of private profits and socialized losses is both de rigueur and the preferred capitalist equilibrium state.
And so, with that introduction,
“Another client was a Delaware-based firm named 2254746 Alberta Sub Ltd. Behind the company’s vague name is a familiar face: Alberta Energy Minister Sonya Savage. The minister, a former pipeline industry lobbyist, is responsible for the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, a provincial Crown corporation tasked with selling the province’s oil and gas to the world.”
“The commission owns 100 per cent of 2254746 Alberta Sub Ltd. It created the company on March 30, 2020, just one day before the commission entered into an investment deal with TC Energy Corp., the oil and gas giant behind the Keystone XL pipeline project, to commit up to $7.5 billion in public money to subsidize the multinational company.”
“Stephen Ellis, an energy and utilities strategist for Morningstar, a Chicago-based financial services firm that offers star ratings of businesses based on performance measures, said the “nominal amount” meant pennies. The government invested the money in the pipeline, and that investment turned out to be essentially worthless,” he said. Ellis said TC Energy made a “smart decision” to partner with Alberta to “share the risk among multiple parties,” which he considered a “good financial practice in terms of protecting their own shareholders.”
“Alberta is suing the U.S. over Keystone XL. The province just had to pay its American taxes first”
https://thenarwhal.ca/alberta-tc-energy-kxl-delaware/
I wonder what their respective riding associations look like at the moment. Are they taking their last chance to leave or do they know they are about to be pushed out by the TBA openly fascist wing of the party.
Sonya already had her nomination done and dusted. Danni would have to interfere big time. The polling must be bad.
One last thing, anybody noticed how usually in Canada, if a woman wins party leadership of an existing government, the government is usually defeated in the next election?
That’s usually because, by the time party insiders elect a female leader, it’s because the party’s in such horrible shape that none of the male candidates want to risk their reputations (or what’s left of them).
But it can backfire, too. Remember when the UCP asked Michelle Rempel Garner if she wanted to lead the New & Improved UCP? She said (Twitter version): “NO.”
I’m glad to say that Rachel Notley and the NDP are an exception.
How batcr@p crazy are the current crop of UCP candidates if even someone as extreme in his social conservatism is seen as the “sane” wing of the party? Before he ran for office for the first time in his life, in 2019, Toews — who, I am sad to say, is my MLA — served on the board of governors of the Peace River Bible Institute, a tiny theological college in Sexsmith, Alberta, a small town about 20 km north of Grande Prairie. PRBI had — in fact, still has (I checked) — a student code of conduct that would not have been out of place in the fictional theosophical country of Gilead, a code which banned a number of activities by members of its student body — including, notoriously, magic and witchcraft.
Had he, instead of Daniellezebub, won the UCP leadership, I’m not convinced we wouldn’t have seen an assault on 2SLGBTQ+ rights and women’s reproductive freedom that wouldn’t be out of place in the red states of the American Deep South. He may not be a conspiracy theorist and doctrinaire libertarian like Smith, but he is far from a moderate in his conservatism.
As for Savage, the irony of appointing her Minister of the Environment made my teeth hurt. It would have been like appointing Count Dracula CEO of Canadian Blood Services.