“And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.” So says the Gospel of Matthew.
I speak metaphorically, of course, of the final days of the United Conservative Party.
Alas, despite what we’re hearing – mostly rumours at this point – the end is not yet.
Indeed, there are powerful arguments for the disunited United Conservatives to stick together no matter how unhappy it makes them in the hope they can make it together through one more election.
Premier Danielle Smith – as incompetent and unpopular as she is turning out, once again, to be – only got the job last October, and the next Alberta general election is scheduled to be held at the end of May.
By that schedule it’s far too late, as the venerable Western political metaphor advises, to switch horses in mid-stream. Indeed, it was probably too late last fall when the UCP foolishly decided to switch out Jason Kenney for Ms. Smith.
It may even be too late if the UCP moves to put off the May 29 election, which would require a change in Alberta legislation but would be unlikely to face a constitutional hurdle.
Still, there’s a whiff of smoke in the air, as if a cow has kicked over a lantern in a stable somewhere, and flames are just starting to spread.
On Saturday, the Breakdown, an Alberta political podcast, tweeted: “Heard from multiple reliable sources today that the UCP caucus is a hairs breadth away from boiling over and prospective leaders to replace Smith are actively being discussed.”
The Breakdown’s thread continued: “Apparently caucus is split along rather predictable lines, and there are increasing concerns within the larger faction that Smith is more focused on the ‘Danielle Smith Show’ than she is actual governance or winning the next election.
“This all comes at a time where the same groups that elevated Smith are becoming more frustrated with her constant equivocation on her promises to them,” the folks at the Breakdown said. “One source told us today that there is a very real possibility of a new leader before the next election.”
On Sunday, former Progressive Conservative deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk tweeted an intriguing fragment of a message from, he said, a member of Premier Smith’s cabinet.
“It would be easy to leave,” the purported minister lamented, with a certain lack of clarity. “To stay. Not so easy when I see something that has been said that is unacceptable from my new leader. Honestly. Is she going to lead this party in the next election? I don’t know. Do you? Won’t be me but who? A good opposition is as important as a good government.”
Mr. Lukaszuk commented that Ms. Smith “indeed has problems when her cabinet ministers exchange among themselves messages like this one.”
Most of us would want to respond to the mystery minister: So, resign already? Make a scene!
Still, if this really was said by a member of Ms. Smith’s cabinet, it’s hard to disagree that it suggests the premier’s problems are growing.
Yesterday, Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt was speculating that the extremist Take Back Alberta group that targeted Jason Kenney and championed Ms. Smith in last year’s leadership review vote and the leadership election that followed it, is now moving to push out Jason Nixon, one of Mr. Kenney’s most influential lieutenants.
“Jason Nixon has lost control of his riding association.” Dr. Bratt tweeted. “Take Back Alberta is taking credit. Will they try, with support of new UCP Board (now 1/2 rep from TBA), and re-open UCP nomination in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre?”
Alert readers will recall that at this time last year, farmer Tim Hoven’s campaign to challenge Jason Nixon for the UCP nomination in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre got off to a strong start – before the he was controversially disqualified for being “associated with extreme or hateful views,” in the words of then-Premier Kenney.
Cancel culture, yelled his supporters. Now it does rather look as if Conservative cancel culture is coming Mr. Nixon’s way.
In her Substack commentary yesterday, University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young also suggests “there are signs of trouble behind the scenes,” noting another social media report that Premier Smith has agreed to let the UCP Caucus vet choices for her planned COVID panel.
Surely this is another sign of disunity in the ranks – although the social media source Dr. Young cited doesn’t make it clear whether this oversight was demanded by what she called the party’s moderates or its anti-vaccine loonies.
“Smith finds herself in the lonely position Jason Kenney occupied not so long ago,” Dr. Young wrote. “The Calgary/establishment wing of the party wants more consistency and good governance. The convoy/Take Back Alberta wing of the party wants to re-litigate COVID.”
So, Apocalypse Now? Or apocalypse later? I can’t answer that question. Yet.
NOTE TO READERS: The AlbertaPolitics.ca server has been acting up again. We are working on a permanent fix, but it’s possible we’re not out of the woods just yet. If it disappears again, please be patient, and expect the blog to return soon. If you spot a typo, please tell me – but with the understanding I may not be able to fix it immediately. DJC
There is no doubt that the marriage between more mainstream Conservatives in the UCP and Smith is a strained and unhappy one. Like any unhappy marriage, you see the looks, the lack of enthusiasm and some odd remarks. You wonder how long it will last and wait for things to explode.
However, that does not always happen quickly or at all. There is a discipline of power as Jeffrey Simpson once called it. Unhappy ministers do not necessarily want to give up their well paid positions and perks, besides there is often a price to be paid for open disloyalty in a party. After all his work to get rid of Kenney, what did Brian Jean get? Well, sure not the party leadership.
I recall the past rumblings of unhappiness with Kenney in the UCP caucus. Despite all that supposed unhappiness, few came out against him openly. So, we may continue to hear muffled shouting behind closed doors, but I expect the Danielle Smith show will continue, probably until the voters decide to cancel it or not. In my opinion she was better on radio than on TV.
It’s more than apparent now that the wheels are about to come off the Bewb-Lady’s bus again. Go back some years and revisit the day Danielle Smith stabbed her own party in the back and walked over the PCs and, what she believed, would be an easy advancement in her political career. Not so fast. The whole thing came crashing down and Smith was left outside and looking in.
Fast forward to Smith’s leadership campaign of the weird, promising to use her enormous powers to protect and avenge the most persecuted group of all time — Antivaxxers and FreeDUMB Convoy crazies — and take PMJT down in a single blow. Well, it seems she doesn’t have great powers after all, and instead of joining Smith’s Resistance, the other provinces are convinced that working with Ottawa is better than fighting it. Even Scott Moe is unhappy Trudeau doesn’t call him as much as Doug Ford, leaving him with a broken heart.
FreeDUMB fighter Smith is fast running out of options, but she does have two courses of action: put the next provincial election on ice for another year and let the UCP MLAs bank as much as they can; or call an action now and force the whole bunch into line. The former would be embarrassing, but the latter would be a crazed game of Russian roulette that no one in their right mind would play.
With Take Back Alberta moving quickly to take over contested nomination battles in various ridings, it looks like someone is trying to buy Smith more wiggle room to avoid a fateful and disastrous election.
There is not doubt in my mind that Smith intends to not have an election and govern without any kind of mandate. It’s not like she hasn’t stabbed anyone in the back before. She did it once and she will do it again.
“I may nit be able to fix it immediately”
I may not be able to fix it immediately
Green: You may nit believe it, but that was an honest typo. DJC
Nit a problem. 😉
PJP: Thank you. It’s been faxed. DJC
Personally, I think it’s like a little kid who is told not to play with a baseball inside of the house. His parents warn him sternly, that he might break something. He is disobedient, and does it. The fine china inherited from Grandma gets hit with the baseball, and it breaks into many pieces. Nothing will ever bring it back to the way it was. It’s damaged forever, and cannot be repaired. The UCP are definitely broken, and it will be impossible to put the party back together. Danielle Smith is doing way too many slip ups to keep the UCP intact. She has a way of making political parties disappear, and go the way of the dodo bird. If the UCP has a hard time retaining their leader, that alone shows there is problems in that party. Because Danielle Smith can be rightfully considered a liability, and isn’t helping the UCP gain support, and traction, when the UCP loses the next provincial election in Alberta, the UCP party will turn on her. The UCP will have to rebrand themselves, with another party name, and find another leader. It will be too late.
You have to admit that there is a certain amount of entertainment value with Danielle Smith as Leader. That is, once you get over the embarrassment as an Albertan. It seems that every week brings a new script with sub plots throughout the following week.
Apart from her comedy show there is also the entertainment value of watching the UCP fracture once again and disappear up their various orifices.
Not exactly the happy gang. Not exactly the gang that could not shoot straight. More like the gang on the deck of the Titanic wondering which way to jump.
And the angst of potentially seeing ‘Power’ slip away from their hands, Knowing that it was self inflicted….and inevitable.
My question is simple. How can members of the Executive who possess any shred of a public conscience or character remain in that Cabinet? The fact that not one has resigned speaks volumes to me.
As I wrote before, governments often fall by their own hand. This is what is likely happening. Alas for this hapless lot of United Crazies, I don’t see any way to end their decline- the internal contradictions are too much. And also add to that Smith’s own shiny shallow leadership, the likely path to destruction for the UCP seems clear.
“Nit” (last line of bolder segment) – accident or deliberate?
Joe: Accident, actually. But it does prove readers are paying attention. I wrote it in a hurry, fearing the site might lock up. In fact, it’s still holding, as you can see from this response. DJC
Received a survey yesterday which probably was commissioned by the UCP. Besides spelling Ms. Notley as “Rachelle”, the questions were so ridiculously biased towards the UCP. EG: Will a NDP victory lead to the end of times, the rending of graves and a pox upon the land? Will a UCP victory lead to the flow of oil across the barren plains, chickens in every pot and an adjusted royalty rate of 0%? Seeing a ruse, I smartly chose “Other”. Then there was a knock at my door and…..
There’s a typo in your sentence about typos (nit rather than not)
Anon: Well, that sorta stands to reason, doesn’t it. Thanks. It’s been fixed. DJC
DJC, paying attention or nit picking…
faxed not worthy ?? chuckle!!
Since it provided some chuckles, I’d rather it occurred than did nit.
I did nit find fault. I can nit take offense.
David, today’s column brought joy to my heart!
With regards to Dr. Young’s comment, “Smith finds herself in the lonely position Jason Kenney occupied not so long ago,”, this is a point that was not made enough while Jason Kenney was premier. Mr. Kenney did NOT WANT to impose the restrictions he did; they went entirely against his ideology. Unfortunately for him, however, the pandemic situation required him to act against his natural instinct.
Ms. Smith, on the other hand, has no interest in alienating her base with something trivial like good governance, her problem is the things that sound so good on a radio show are simply not permitted within the limits of a premiership. She can’t pass a law allowing Alberta to ignore federal law, she has no authority to issue presidential pardons to Covid law breakers, she can’t direct prosecutors about what cases to drop, and it turns out adding vaccination status to Alberta’s Bill of Rights is more complicated than when you are a radio host.
The problem with our political system is that we elect a party not a leader. Leaders change but the elected party stays in power. The Take Back Alberta folks have shown us that an organized few can take over a divided party and put a leader of their choice into power. The other MLAs will fall in line as loyalty to the party is more important than their obligation to the people that elected them. Electing a divided UCP is a dangerous choice for Albertans. Who will be Premier a year from now? What will be the agenda? In a time when the world is transitioning towards greener energy, this much uncertainty is very risky.
Like all good parties, nit was over before I got here. No nitpicking for me, eh?
My vote is apocalypse now
So we can get on with the 3rd return of Cherokee Dani and the continuing adventures of the Franken Party.
To the tune of “Danny Boy:”
Oh Dani Smith, the air waves have been calling
Asking for you to return without delay
For though your grasp of facts is quite appalling
To white racists, you’re a mainstay
And though you have kicked up an awful racket
As you run around barking at the moon
Back home is where you have left your straight-jacket
Oh Dani Smith, oh Dani Smith, mad as a loon.
The correct response to all this? “More popcorn!” Hahaha!
Does an empty vessel become a poisoned chalice when the chosen take communion? Oh Dani! Don’t be the George Santos of Alberta politics! erm..
Ok then. https://youtu.be/RdR6MN2jKYs
Goop….” Drinking from the poisoned well- by Tourniquet–
lyrics apply to Dani and Perre.
And as far as Georgie Porgy ,pudding and pie ….if he was Pinnochio, he’d be setting up his own lumber yard by now .
DJC…Thank You So Much!!! for the spelling error, you did nit realize how many smiles it would create…even after you faxed it.
Nice elixir for the day that was. Ta!!
If thems what brought Danielle “Sadie Hawkins” Smith to the dance start picking fights with thems whom she dragged to it, I’m guessing (underline ”guessing”) that she’ll resort to instinct and cross the caucus-room floor for protection. And with the ghost of the late ProgCon premier Prentice hovering over their heads like the Sword of FreeDamnOakleys, the now-UCPeer(—now you don’t) premier will demon-strafe, incredibly once again, that she is absolutely, completely, and totally politically gormless.
As mentioned, as the blood-sweat-and-tear-knotted Gordian sheets wear relentlessly towards May 29 and, anon, whatever Q through yonder election-winda breaks, a small rip in the mainsail risks a tattering hail of grommet-vomit upon the poop.
And every mind will be focused wonderfully—all except one.
If it’s true her office contacted Crown prosecutors about the Coutts four who allegedly plotted to kill police, she must resign now.
The convoy idiots have convinced themselves that those four are political prisoners who were framed by police, and Danielle Smith is probably stupid enough to believe that.
They will now claim that CBC is lying, no doubt.
The UCP’s problem is that it was never truly united. Just like their federal Conservative Party of Canada compatriots before them, they were a shotgun wedding between the former Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta, the party of Lougheed, Getty, Klein, Stelmach & Redford, and the breakaway knuckledraggers of the Wildrose Party. It’s sole mission was to defeat the NDP, and the policy gulf between traditional PCs & Wildrosers was real and wide and could not be brushed aside.
Let’s remember, folks, that prior to the early 2000s, there was only one conservative party in the legislature (OK, well, in fact, that isn’t entirely true: the Decore-era Liberals were as conservative as they come). The Alberta Alliance (as it was then called) was, until 2005, just another right-wing fringe party without a snowball’s chance in Hell of electing any MLAs. Then in 2005 they got their party leader, Paul Hinman, elected in Cardston-Taber-Warner (quel surprise). In January 2008, the Alberta Alliance Party merged with the as-yet-unregistered Wildrose Party to become the Wildrose Alliance. Hinman lost his seat in the March 2008 provincial election, and the newly renamed party failed to win any other seats. Hinman then stepped down as party leader in April 2009, and the winner of the resulting leadership race was … you guessed it … Danielle Smith. Hinman was re-elected to the legislative in a September 2009 byelection in Calgary-Glenmore.
The Wildrose Alliance Party got two more MLAs in January 2010 after a pair of PC MLAs crossed the floor. Then in June 2020, independent & former PC MLA Guy Boutilier also joined the Wildrose Alliance caucus. They renamed themselves just the Wildrose Party in … was it 2011?
By the time the April 2012 election rolled around, the polls & the pundits were predicting a Wildrose victory over Allison Redford’s PCs. However, the wheels fell off their campaign partway through, and they came out of that election as Official Opposition with 17 seats, against the Tories’ 61. The Liberals under Raj Sherman — remember him? — won 5, & the NDP under Brian Mason won 4. The Alberta Party, the led by Glenn Taylor, former Mayor of Hinton, lost their one & only seat, which was Taylor’s.
Wildrose was a doctrinaire, ideological, hard-right-wing political party, quite different from the big-tent brokerage party that was the Progressive Conservatives. Jason Kenney decided the “right” needed to be united, just as it had been at the federal level not that long ago, so he browbeat and cajoled and persuaded enough PCs & ‘Rosers to hold their noses and for for the merger, in order to defeat Rachel Notley’s ‘socialist hordes’ [;-)], but there was, and still is, little that truly united the urbanized moderate conservatives in Calgary & Edmonton and the rural and “rurban” Wildrosers from what Prof. Jared Wesley has called “Otherland”. I fully expect them to fall apart if the NDP beats them in May, and perhaps even if they don’t.