A brief statement by Energy Minister Sonya Savage yesterday says Alberta’s United Conservative Party Government intends to use a legacy provision of the now-kaput North American Free Trade Agreement to recover the government’s “investment” in the cancelled Keystone XL Pipeline project.
The minister’s statement – heavy with nearly incomprehensible business-bureaucratic jargon despite its economical use of only 170 words of text – is technically accurate, but misleading.
“The Government of Alberta – through the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission – has taken formal steps to initiate a legacy North American Free Trade Agreement claim under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement over the cancellation of the presidential permit for the Keystone XL pipeline border crossing,” the statement begins.
“After examining all available options, we have determined a legacy claim is the best avenue to recover the government’s investment in the Keystone XL project,” it continues.
This is probably true, although that doesn’t mean it offers a very good chance of recovering the $1.3-billion bet – not an investment – that the Kenney Government gave away in 2020 to TC Energy, the Calgary-based pipeline company previously known as TransCanada Pipelines.
The gift was made in the expectation that Republican Donald Trump would be re-elected as president of the United States in November 2020 and that he would allow the controversial project to be completed.
Instead, as everyone over the age of four now understands, Joseph Biden, a Democrat who had promised to cancel the project, was elected. Literally his first act as president was to pull the plug on KXL. This is pretty hard to portray as a betrayal by a democratically elected politician, although to give Alberta Premier Jason Kenney his due, he tried.
Moreover, the chance of the Alberta NAFTA action succeeding is quite small.
There is every possibility that the Alberta claim will lose, Kyla Tienhaara, the Canada Research Chair in Economy and Environment at Queen’s University, wrote in December last year – “leaving Alberta’s taxpayers worse off considering the high cost of (investor-state dispute settlement) proceedings.”
So why bother? Clearly it’s because the Kenney Government looks exceedingly foolish for its bad bet, which immediately cost Alberta taxpayers $1.3 billion and may still leave them on the hook for up to another $6 billion in loan guarantees for TC Energy.
But while the claim is unlikely to succeed, it will not be resolved before the next Alberta general election, giving Mr. Kenney and the UCP time to leave the impression the government is aggressively pursuing the lost dough and intends to recover it.
In reality, of course, they will be throwing good money after bad in an effort to fool Alberta voters.
Dr. Tienhaara’s December 2021 commentary – published soon after TC Energy launched its own legacy NAFTA ISDS claim, which she assessed as having a much better chance of success – is very accessible to lay readers. I will just summarize a few of her key points here.
There were many obstacles to the Keystone XL project, even if Mr. Trump had been elected, the outcome Mr. Kenney gambled our money on. Permits were outstanding. Challengers were in the U.S. courts. “The very fact that KXL needed a substantial injection of public funds to proceed indicates that it was viewed by the private sector as an extremely risky investment.”
Alberta hoped to piggyback on TC Energy’s more promising case, but the benefactor of the UCP’s largesse wanted nothing to do with that plan, presumably because the province’s case could only weaken the company’s.
Alberta could only use the NAFTA provision, which under the terms of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement expires next year, because the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission is a Crown-owned corporation.
“Presumably there is no provision in the “exit agreement” between Crown corporation APMC and TC Energy that would have Alberta recouping its investment if TC Energy wins its NAFTA case,” Dr. Tienhaara wrote. “If there was, there would be no need for a separate arbitration.” (Emphasis added.)
This point does nothing to increase confidence in the business or legal acumen of the UCP government.
Much of the rest of Dr. Tienhaara’s short essay, published by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, deals with the environmental problems created and made worse by the ISDS process, which was eliminated for Canada in negotiations with the Trump Administration for the CUSMA in the summer of 2020.
Nevertheless, it is important to remember, similar provisions that allow corporations to sue for fancifully calculated future losses resulting from the imposition of environmental laws and regulations remain in many trade agreements to which Canada is a party, and continue to be sought by Canada in negotiations with other countries.
Ms. Savage’s statement continued with a paragraph of folderol about Alberta’s responsible and reliable energy sector and its importance to the North American economy.
“Alberta’s government will continue to fiercely advocate for our energy sector and the workers whose livelihoods depend on it,” she then concluded.
Meanwhile, while Ms. Savage was spending her time on this political Hail Mary pass, she was doing very little in her temporary additional role as justice minister to open the border crossing as Coutts, which is illegally blockaded by a far-right “Freedom Convoy” that is trying to topple Canada’s democratically elected federal government.
Despite a timid statement on the Coutts blockade yesterday, at last report the Royal Canadian Mounted Police had still not made any moves to enforce the law.
The cost of that blockade, estimated at $44 million a day, has already soared to well over half a billion dollars, close to half of Alberta’s initial and probably unrecoverable loss on the UCP’s gift to TC Energy.
Workers whose livelihoods depend on goods passing through the border at Coutts are apparently not as much of a concern to Ms. Savage and her colleagues in the UCP.
One person has been charged under the Critical Infrastructure Defence Act for inciting violence at Coutts: Artur Pawlowski.
That’s it for now.
I note the story says Preacher Paw drove off in his BMW. Never hurts to let Jesus collect your money for you. In the mean time a person from Ohio called in a bomb threat to the wrong Ottawa. Too dumb to even do a proper search for the right town:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/10/man-calls-in-bomb-threat-wrong-ottawa-police-ohio
Kind of like the people the UCP have in their caucus who seem to have forgotten which country they are sworn to serve, and the clown show they are putting on over their bad bet on KXL.
But more seriously, here is a CBC investigation into high level involvement by former RCMP and military in organizing the insurrection in Ottawa:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/convoy-protesters-police-tactical-knowledge-1.6345854
This is starting to look like people legitimately anxious about the energy transition and declining oil patch jobs being manipulated by more sinister forces from within and without.
I wonder if the few thoughtful UCP MLAs are starting to realize the social forces of unreasoning reaction they have created may turn on them as well?
No such an animal as a ” thoughtful UCP MLA”, let alone a few of them. Nor do any of them have any notable ability to reason anything.
Let’s get real here, Kang. These people are imbeciles.
Ranger: I had assumed that there must be one or two reasonable UCP MLAs. But, as my old logic prof used to remind us: “assumptions make asses of us all.” So, after looking at the list and checking it twice, I have to say you are right.
Well, perhaps an Alberta busines or a business from across the border should sue the UCP government for failing to enforce its own critical infrastructure laws. Surely there must be significant losses to private businesses from the ongoing blockade. As a bonus, it would give Ms Savage something to do, rather than just keep the seat warm, as Kenney hopes his carefully picked, presumably sympathetic judge will somehow pave the way for Madu’s return.
The Alberta government lawsuit of course is just more money wasted, but hey it’s not Kenney’s personal funds, so what does he care. It allows him two valuable political messages. First that he is still fighting and second to hold out the faint hope the money he lost on the pipeline gamble is still somehow recoverable.
Of course it is unlikely Kenney will get as sympathetic a judge on this pipeline lawsuit issue as the one he picked for Madu. However, part of Kenney’s political operating style is about pushing inconvenient political problems as far forward as possible. Unfortunately for him, there are limits to this. Eventually there will be a reckoning for all his bad decisions.
Two words can characterize much of Bumbles’ grand political tactics and strategy: wishful thinking. Here are some examples.
When it was clear the Biden was likely going to win the election, when he promised to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline and when democrats have been saying for years that they will not invest in any new oil infrastructure, Bumbles gambles 1.4 billion dollars on a pipeline that any fool would have been able to see was likely to be canceled, wasting our tax dollars. Wishful thinking.
When it was clear to just about everyone, except the knuckle draggers that comprise the rural rump of the UCP caucus, that it was too early and to risky to relax Covid restrictions and that doing so was likely to cause a surge of infections and hospitalizations, Bumbles opens the province for the “best summer ever”. Wishful thinking.
When he thought no one would notice under the assumption that nothing bad could happen during the best summer ever, he went on vacation without telling anyone or leaving anyone in charge during the best summer ever to who knows where (Thailand, Europe to try to join Opus Dei, Mom’s place, bird watching in the Arctic, an African Safari, trekking in Nepal). Wishful thinking.
He thought no one would notice his underhanded tricks to remove Brian Jean from contention to lead the UCP during the leadership race. Wishful thinking.
The list goes on and could start to resemble an epic catalog. It should be obvious to most people that he has no clear plan except some vague dream to remake Alberta some funhouse mirror image of a conservative Republican state. He is probably the most incompetent and destructive premier we have ever had in our history.
Modern Canadian conservatives are clearly a lost cause. This is a movement of adult-children who think they are owed their old white boy priviledge. The parties are co-opted by alt-right grifters who only care about money.
You think that PPC moron really thinks he’ll get power? It is so obvious Max is only about the Bordens (well, maybe adulation he gets from the young ladies too).
The UCP is merely a collection of Kenney’s owner’s special interest gorups. They laugh at the rural rubes who support them.
All this is done in the open for all to see. Conservative supporters accept this and allow themselves to be led by the nose by charlatans and criminals.
Cool: I certainly agree with your views on the disingenuous nature of the cons/UCP, but I place at least some of the blame for their rise on a feckless and unreliable NDP. Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the British Labour Party explains his rationale for no vaccine passports or compulsory vaccinations in this short talk:
https://www.doubledown.news/watch/2022/january/18/why-i-oppose-vaccine-mandates-covid-passports-big-pharma-jeremy-corbyn
Did you say, “probably”? Can you name anyone who ever served as Premier who was more incompetent, and corrupt?
I bet you can’t
From my perspective, Cons are ruining the country with abusive policies and words designed only to appeal to illiterate dimwits, bigots running the blockade “show”, and the moneyed elite. The latter are now perhaps getting just a wee bit worried that record profits may be derailed by the continued blockages of our borders, and the lackadaisical response of our so-called “police” forces to the blockade. New Zealand got after the anti-vaxx squwkers and protesters on their Parliament grounds with police response that was not over strict, but firm. 120 screeching hairy armpit-scratchers arrested, and the rest sent home. Why in hell can we not do the same here, like yesterday?
Our Chief Medical Officer in NS yesterday laid out our plan for easing restrictions that is over two months long. Our hospital admissions/ICU cases are gradually declining as is the case count. Unlike AB or SK. The press, of course, asked him and the premier if that new plan was caving to the antisocial antivaxx crowd. He said no. Reminded me when some dope of an Emerge doctor criticized him a year ago on some Covid point, in a haw haw snooty way. To paraphrase his response, it was to the effect that he wasn’t an Emerge doc and couldn’t comment on that aspect of the profession, but neither did he assume the Emerge doctor knew the first thing about epidemiology judging by the uninformed comments. You do your job and I’ll do mine, was his response. I don’t suppose our CMO Dr Strang knows how to drive a big rig, but it’s beyond laughable to suggest unvaxxed truck drivers know the first thing about epidemiology or public health. In that matter, they’re complete dolts. In Alberta and SK, they are joined by loutish premiers similarly without any qualifications who overrule expert epidemiologicalcal advice, and merely pander to the unwashed holding the country to ransom. I consider these premiers traitors to the country and to the people they represent but do not serve or lead.
Using an old provision from old NAFTA to try to recover $1.3 billion of kenney’s casino bettin’ money given to a Canadian pipeline company from Americans is derisory. Like every other damn fool thing the man says, which is calculated to only butter his own bread, and no one else’s. As usual, great post DJC.
If you can’t beat them join them. What if every cause to support those truly in need in Canada were to get together and block highways and/or major economic corridors right now? Think everyone who lives in their vehicle driving said vehicle into a major intersection and camping there until they receive housing. Would the opposite response to what we’re getting now be undeniable and leave a bad taste in one’s mouth? Would savage and the ucpea start foaming at the mouth as they lose their minds and ditto for the federal liberals and conservatives? Oh well, let’s sue the americans for voting, that should keep the genius public occupied.
These Alberta reformers must have been the only ones dumb enough to believe the lie that DonTrump would get re- elected. My American republican supporters weren’t that stupid they called Trump the worse liar they had ever seen, and had no intention of supporting him again.
Joe Biden couldn’t have made his intentions any clearer, apparently Kenney wasn’t listening. I wonder what this waste of taxpayers money is going to cost us apparently $1.3 billion wasn’t enough.
ALAN K. SPILLER: My dad, a longtime retired senior, and farmer, had a saying. Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched. The UCP did that. Don’t forget about the $6 billion in loan guarantees. We have no account of that money either on this very costly shenanigan, by the UCP. The UCP is good at wasting money on very costly shenanigans, like their hero, a Liberal turned Reformer, Ralph Klein did. Why did the UCP assume Donald Trump would be America’s president, once again. My elderly father also used to have a saying. Do you know what no means? The UCP didn’t listen when Joe Biden said no to this pipeline.
By early next week, things should be in a right old mess here in Alberta. More and more organizations are speaking out against Kenney’s handling of the Best Valentine’s Day Ever™. Students in Edmonton schools are holding a school strike at the Alberta Legislature late Monday afternoon. Faculty at the University of Lethbridge will be on strike as of 11 a.m. today. The holy war at the Coutts saloon continues.
More border blockades are breaking out across the country, while IDU Harper’s kid and public servant/elite American university student Ben dog-whistles to the plaid shirts that he is one of them by posting a plate of chicken wings on Twitter. That pub grub is the fuel that keeps the Coutts crowd going.
The chaos sown to make the sky fall in Alberta, and Canada along with it, comes from right here in the Sky Palace, with an assist from the seed of the IDU chief, Stephen Harpo. Never think that the sympathy convoys in other parts of the world are a coincidence. They are a coordinated effort from the original puppetmaster™, Harpo himself.
This begs the question, if the sky is falling, will the Sky Palace fall, taking Chicken Wing Little ™ with it?
Let’s see sit back and watch how the French gendarmes roll out the red carpet for the convoyeurs this weekend.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8608963/paris-freedom-convoy-ottawa-trucker-protests/
https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/10/paris-police-ban-canada-style-freedom-convoy-protest-against-french-covid-restrictions
It’s hardly going to be “vive les ailes de poule”. More like pouring “lait de poule” all over it.
“the Royal Canadian Mounted Police had still not made any moves to enforce the law”
I’m off to blockade the doughnut shop.
Question:
That byelection in Ft. Mac is coming up next month…has Kenney signed Brian Jean’s nomination papers?
That story got quiet real fast. Kenney hopes that blockade at Coutts lasts a long, long time.
“There is every possibility that the Alberta claim will lose, Kyla Tienhaara, the Canada Research Chair in Economy and Environment at Queen’s University, wrote in December last year – “leaving Alberta’s taxpayers worse off considering the high cost of (investor-state dispute settlement) proceedings.”
1. Idiot(s), Jason Kenney) and Company (Kenney & Company, LLP), gambled and lost. ‘Bigly’.
2. As accomplished BS artists, Jason Kenney & Company are“committed to being responsible stewards of taxpayers’ hard-earned money”, so it is said.
https://www.facebook.com/kenneyjasont/videos/jason-kenney-no-corporate-welfare/10155736474327641/
https://calgarysun.com/opinion/columnists/guest-opinion-ucp-flip-flops-on-corporate-welfare
3. Apparently a lack of basic schooling and/or alcohol induced cognitive impairment allows a “leader” to be unaware of what a ‘sunk cost fallacy’ is, so doubling down is always the preferred way forward for all those individuals that can never be held accountable for their decisions.
4. Promised recall legislation? Crickets! Why?
Because , it is simply more UCP grifter style BS, or horseshit, or deception, or duplicity, ect., ect. designed to fool the perennial suckers and true believers that love being fleeced, over and over again.
“Here’s why Alberta’s recall legislation is as mythical as Bigfoot”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/here-s-why-alberta-s-recall-legislation-is-as-mythical-as-bigfoot-1.5955877
Apparently, both the public and the UCP love it that way, in the same manner of Donald Trump: “I love the poorly educated.”
Like you suggest, this is just another way to convince Albertans that still believe in this charade that they are very concerned about recovering what they cannot. Just another political drama to add to the full disaster this has been for 2 years now.
I have no doubts that these people in power in Alberta are more interested in joining the US than they are of protecting Alberta as a Canadian province. Trump I am sure is behind these truckers protest as well as the Republican Party who never gave up getting their dirty hands all over the world including Canada as part of belief in their Manifest Destiny that says the following:
‘Manifest Destiny, a phrase coined in 1845, is the idea that the United States is destined—by God, its advocates believed—to expand its dominion and spread democracy and capitalism across the entire North American continent.’
In 1845 they still believed in Democracy. Now they believe in usurping whatever territory and to spread tyranny. Not much different than Putin after all.
This is the reason behind all of this garbage going on in Canada. We should look up to New Zealand that in the very first day of the same protest got 50 people arrested because they are breaking the law (surprise the law still matters). It seems that in our country our politicians are behaving more like the Republican party and ignoring their responsibilities.
This is very sad and Justin Trudeau is paralyzed with fear of a possible confrontation with what we know for a fact has nothing to do with vaccines and a lot to do with insurrection.
Distractions. What shall we call them? https://youtu.be/7mV0Kv5SAwI?t=2
Just trying to save their ass and waste more of taxpayers money. You can bet they will fail when Joe Biden couldn’t have made his intentions any clearer. School children are saying they feel safer wearing a mask in school , but this fool Jason Kenney doesn’t give a damn about what they think he wants to cave in to the truckers, and the ignorant Albertans still dumb enough to support him.
While O’Toole the fool tries to blame Trudeau for the high cost of living, due to COVID who are the political idiots supporting the truckers? Reformers trying to pretend they are conservatives and making an ass of themselves. Too dumb to realize what this is doing to our high cost of living. Proving how much they care about the well-being of the people.
You didn’t see Notley bragging about supporting them. She is a lot smarter than that, and you can bet Lougheed would have been also.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
― Napoleon Bonaparte
“In politics, stupidity is not a handicap.”
― Napoleon Bonaparte
“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”
― George Carlin
Cheers 🙂
It’s interesting to note that the FreeDUMB Convoy appears to be getting on the bad side of the CONs. Once the CONs favorite cause celebre, they are now asking that the Convoy end their blockades and go home. Why? Candice Bergen was all screaming they were patriots and all were worthy of receiving the V.C. What happened?
It seems that the blockade on the Ambassador Bridge has got the attention of US Homeland Security. The bridge is a major economic (and national defense) access point and many actors, from the State Department to the DOD are watching things unfold and they don’t like it. Worse, it appears that the NSA is also watching this event and coming to some conclusions about the point of the blockade. Blockade an economic access point and, inadvertently, caused unemployment in Michigan and Ohio. Well, maybe not inadvertently. Given the hyper-awareness of any and all Russian efforts to mess with the US, using Canada as a means to hack the US poli with Canada-inspired truck rallies has brought Convoy organizers attention they don’t want. That and considering the states of Michigan, Milwaukee, and Ohio tend to be hotbeds of anti-government militia activity, there will be strong interest from the Biden Administration to keep things open and moving.
So now that the FreeDUMB Convoy has made itself a concern for the DHS, I suspect that this has become a lot of nonsense for the CPC and they’re running from their really bad idea now.
Interesting that you should mention this, Just Me. I’ve been thinking about this too. Consider the timing. In February 2014, during the Winter Olympics in Sochi, the government of Ukraine was toppled by rioters who the Russians believed were backed by the CIA and other NATO intelligence services. In December, Russian President Putin threatened “military-technical measures” against NATO if they didn’t back off the Russian borderlands. They didn’t. So, in February 2022, during the Winter Olympics in Beijing, the most belligerent NATO member on Ukraine and the U.S.’s next-door neighbour experiences something like the Maidan protests in Kiev eight years ago. Coincidence? Maybe. Maybe not.
The UCP actually squandered $7.5 billion on KXL. We still have no account of the $6 billion in loan guarantees. Also, the UCP are good at wasting money on the most priciest shenanigans, which end up costing Albertans billions of dollars. The UCP isn’t going to be heavy handed with the Coutts border blockade by these truckers. It’s their base, so they are being easy on them.
KXL was risky because of the politics of getting any infrastructure built. That said the US has built alot of infrastructure so there is precedent which gives a fair chance of winning.
So suggesting companies wont do it because its risky is just a mirror to the 3rd world policies the regressive governments have made the standard in Canada. If you dont have the government bought off you dont make it over the hurdles. Not a good thing for the prosperity of future Canadians.
Bret: KXL was stopped in the US, not Canada. The Trumpians are busy stopping funding for all sorts of infrastructure in the US and they built nothing when TRump was in power.
Is that so?
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/america-has-built-the-equivalent-of-10-keystone-pipelines-since-2010-and-no-one-said-anything
Bottom line…..Jason Kenney bought a pig in a poke.
He wasted $ 1.3 Billion of taxpayers money for a 60 second ‘feel good’ sound bite to increase his popularity.
Alas….it has not appeared to work. Oh well, it is only public money.
BRETT: It was actually $7.5 billion, and likely even more. We still don’t know what happened to the $6 billion in loan guarantees.
Well, we know for sure that TC Energy isn’t going to thank us Albertans for our support and cut us some slack. DJC