There are those who say we should be bracing ourselves for the return of President Steve.
Say it ain’t so!
We can expect know soon if Stephen Harper is going to re-emerge to make a re-run to re-lead the Conservative Party of Canada in the wake of the reversal delivered by poor Andy Scheer, whose leadership was done like dinner the instant the microwave dinged and Justin Trudeau managed to squeak back into the PMO with an underheated minority government.
That was last Oct. 21, in case you’d forgotten already.
At any rate, all the candidates to lead the party of Preston Manning, Stockwell Day and Mr. Harper are supposed to be present and accounted for next month, prepared to part with their prohibitively large “qualification fee,” and it sure doesn’t sound as if it’s going to be a very big crowd now that most of the obvious candidates have quietly slipped out the fire exits.
Well, maybe instead of Mr. Harper, who is said to actually be enjoying retirement, it’ll be Christy Clark, who had a reasonably electorally successful run as premier of British Columbia from 2011 to 2017, who will step off the plane from a sojourn in India and announce she’s going to save the CPC from the prospect of another generation of failure.
Or maybe Jason Kenney really will hand the keys to the premier’s Tory Blue Dodge Ram to some other Alberta Jason so he can step up and save Canada’s Conservatives from 40 more years in the wilderness, which is what seems likely to happen if Elmer MacKay’s kid manages to grab the brass ring as is apparently the most likely outcome.
Leastways, Peter MacKay isn’t the candidate I’d be worrying about the most if I were Gerald Butts or another of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal political strategists. Mr. Kenney probably is.
The younger Mr. MacKay late of Central Nova — the last leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, which folded its tent with his intended or unintended assistance at the end of 2003 — is probably not the dumbest politician in Canadian history. But that doesn’t necessarily make him smart enough to beat Mr. Trudeau, and I’m not saying that’s a particularly high a bar to get over, either.
On the other hand, Mr. MacKay did once beat Jim Prentice in an election race, and no one else ever managed to do that … except Rachel Notley, of course.
Anyway, it sure seems as if the most obviously electable candidates have already exited — Jean Charest, Rona Ambrose, and even Skippy Poilievre. Either that or they haven’t put in an appearance at all. Caroline Mulroney? Hello? Are you there?
What’s more, it looks as if they all know something we don’t — like the old CPC Hive Mind has come up with the One Candidate to Rule Them All, as right-wing parties everywhere tend more and more to do these days, and everyone else is expected to sit down and shaddup or risk being dive-bombed by the Helicopter Candidate’s quietly financed Kamikaze Candidate. (Enough naval aviation metaphors already! — Ed.)
Well, at least Erin O’Toole (Erin O’Who?) is apparently in, yesterday’s rumour he was out having proved to be, well, a rumour.
Good Lord, the press has been reduced to speculating about the likes of Michael Chong, the last Good Tory, or Michelle Rempel, the Queen of Twitter Blockers, stepping up for the job! Richard Decarie? Marilyn Gladu? Rick Peterson? Aron Seal? Bobby Singh? Derek Sloan? Vincent Guzzo? Rudy Husny? Who are these people? Has anyone except their mothers ever heard of them?
Even the party’s most connected media observers seem to be getting mixed signals.
Don Braid, the 2,000-year-old mouse of Canadian journalism, went so far as to endorse two possibilities in his Postmedia column last week, an editorial decision worthy of the New York Times, only not quite as funny because the stakes are so low.
Mr. Braid’s first choice was Mr. Harper. And if Mr. Harper decides not to come out of retirement and save the world, his second first choice was Ms. Clark.
Sounds like a man waiting for the phone to ring if you ask me. And if Mr. Braid’s phone isn’t ringing, you have to wonder if there’s anyone left at the other end of the line to spin the dial, although it may not have occurred to many reporters of his generation that phones don’t really have lines, let alone dials, any more.
Some exceptions may apply, of course. But don’t look at me. I’m no Conservative insider, and the only members of that party who talk to me are old Tories who know even less than the media does.
NOTE: This post has been updated to reflect the change in Mr. O’Toole’s status and a certain temporal confusion by the author, who decided late last night that most of February had already passed. It happens.
OK this is coming from way out from left field but here goes.
Exhibit A: the “Interim President of Venezuela”, Juan Guaidó, is visiting Canada today on a formal state visit to meet Justin Trudeau where will discuss the “importance of democracy and the need to respect the Venezuelan Constitution.”
Exhibit B: the Tories desperately need bodies to run in their leadership race to if only to build tension and drive up ratings.
Is anybody thinking what I’m thinking Dept: why not have this Guaido character run in the Tory leadership race since the slow-motion coup being pushed by the USA seem to have run aground and he’s out doing anything else. A win-win in anybody’s books.
That is funny, his Spanish is good but do they teach French at the school of the Americas or whatever it is called now? Perhaps Branson could have a benefit concert to come up with the money for the entry fee. Wonder how Freeland would take it? Better yet they could have the leadership race and after someone else wins we could all just recognize him as the leader, he could swear himself in and everything.
At this time who really wants to lead the CPC?
Shut out of GTA and Quebec, as well as being justly derided as the party of Calgary, the national consensus is that the party is a rural rump that intends to remake the Canada of the 1950s.
Peter MacKay steps up because he is pro-choice, has already denounced Scheer’s positions on social issues, like LGBT rights, and his stunning wife was born in Iran. That package alone makes socons from Okotoks to Yorkton lose their marbles and demand there own country. (Where the men are men and the women are glad for it.) Is this a move to drag the Neanderthals into the current year? Maybe.
But the silence from Harper, Manning, and others leaves one to wonder is there something else afoot? Maybe their position is to let the Red Tories have the party and watch them fail, spectacularly. Once another election is lost, the Red Tories will be ousted and the True Blue can take over once and for all.
This the gamble that Harper would like. After all he didn’t mind being shut out of Atlantic Canada. Weren’t they the part of Canada that didn’t matter? And Quebec…into all the luxurious culture and the good life on Alberta’s dime. Leave them out as well.
Soon it will be GTA…Toronto is the ‘city of woke’. Who needs them? B.C. Lower Mainland…Asians don’t get the Tories, so who care about them?
The only part that matters is Western Canada, where pick up trucks rule, all the wealth you will ever need is in the earth, and God is in every Christian town and household.
Rural rump? Definitely.
Tune In Next Time for Another Thrilling Episode of… Tories!! Eat!! Their!! Young!!!
I really wish that Stockwell Day would return, because I miss the Flintstones jokes and the Sea-Doo.
However, that catchy logo is sure to do it for PM, the wanna-be PM: three Ms. I wonder what it would look like if Jason Kenney foisted that logo and stamped his brand on it: a real eye-catcher, for sure.
Methinks that the Dippers would be breathing some sighs of relief at a MacKay coronation. What they’d fear most would be a fire-breathing fundie, chomping at the bit to put uppity wimmin and gay folk in their places. Then we’d go through another strategic voting cycle, and our nation’s drama teacher would get his majority back.
Instead, we’d have the public faced with a tired Trudeau repeating his lines well after their expiry date vs. a fairly harmless dweeb with one of the thinnest resumes on the Hill. Under the circumstances, Singh would look pretty good as he stated, with heartfelt conviction, whatever it was that he heard from the last person that he talked to.
Stephen Harper and Preston Manning are worried that their religious right group may loose if someone like Peter MacKay wins the conservative leadership. Anyway the way the conservative party are handling their politics, Justin Trudeau will easily win the next or several elections as Prime Minister.
Isn’t the deadline 27 February?
Indeed it is, typoman, but your imperfect and editor-free blogger has been operating on the presumption all through January that it’s February already. So the leap seemed natural. Well, I’m almost as old as Don Braid, so this kind of stuff happens. I spotted it this morning when making the same mistake at work in a completely unrelated matter. The horror! Fortunately, a little editing brought things into temporal alignment and all’s well with the world, no harm, no foul. But thanks for pointing it out just the same. It would have been horrible if I hadn’t noticed till tomorrow, or yesterday, or March, or whenever. Think of it this way, unlike the mainstream media, we actually report on things here at AlbertaPolitics.ca before they’ve happened! Plus, I’m not always hounding you to pay for a subscription. This is infinitely better than getting the facts wrong after they’ve actually happened. DJC
Unlike some others, Mr. Harper was smart enough to know to quit after losing an election. He has a 3-2 record against the Liberals, so can claim some success. I don’t think he’d want to jeopardize that record by coming back to try again. I also don’t think Mr. Harper really enjoyed politics that much. He seldom seemed that happy as PM.
On the other hand, Ms. Clark from BC might be more tempted and in some ways, she sort of checks a lot of the boxes the Conservatives have been trying to check – western (from BC, so sort of), woman and sort of moderate (at least for a Conservative). She also might be one of the few that could bring the Conservatives, kicking and screaming no doubt, into the 21st Century on the climate change issue. However, it is for that reason and I suspect that the Conservatives know they can’t control her as well as some other candidates, that they would probably hesitate to choose her. Of course some Conservatives may remember they did not have a good track record with women leaders from BC, but perhaps that was another party and another time.
I really think their first choice, as Premier Kenney said, was Rona Ambrose but that she really wasn’t that interested in disrupting her cozy personal life and nice position in the private sector. I suspect Mr. MacKay could be the second choice candidate that most of the powers in the party will unite behind, unless Kenney jumps in. Mr. Kenney is shrewd and a relentless campaigner. While he doesn’t have the photogenic children and spouse that Mr. MacKay does, that can be an advantage as he can devote more of his attention and energy to politics. Mr. MacKay seems a bit nice and not as clever a politician as Kenney, so Kenney could probably do more damage to the Liberals in a campaign and otherwise. However, I have a feeling the rest of the country would have reservations about another social conservative from the west who seems so cozy with the energy industry. I think it would be quite a challenge for Kenney to overcome that, but he seems to be a politician that also likes challenges.
I think if Mr. Harper has stage managed anything, it is for Mr. MacKay to win. MacKay gives the impression of being a bit more moderate, but is not really as he comfortable served in Mr. Harper’s government for a long time and seems to have a very solid relationship with his former boss. As an easterner, MacKay might have a bit of trouble keeping the more right wing western Conservatives in line, but Mr. Harper would probably help him with that if needed.
Priceless! This is gut-busting stuff! Lol!
I rather look at the whole thing as symptomatic of a party in its throes, recognized by two-thirds-and-growing of Canadian voters as backward-looking (a not-so-unusual conservative trait) and increasingly extremist (in an increasingly desperate attempt to replace departing moderates with far-right bigots). If the party can’t or won’t return to real conservative ideology, it will continue to decline toward the political fringe, and the re-establishment of a real conservative party is all it would take to seal its fate.
Can the CPC be saved? And, if so, who can do it as leader?
Again, as the Western Reform-rooted pseudoCon party of Stephen Harper, I don’t think it can be saved—at least the odds are low and shrinking, all the more, I should think, if Harper were to return and remind everyone except the most drop-dead-dyed-in-the-bush fanatics that Canadians have really missed the Progressive Conservative Party, the one Preston Manning and Lucien Bouchard tore apart and reduced to two seats (after it had won the two largest parliamentary majorities, back-to-back), the party of the moderate Tory right, the rump of which Harper devoured whole while turning sharply to the market fundamentalism of globalizing neoliberalism—“conservative” in name and ornament only.
That goes for any of the HarperCons whose speculated returns from political retirement has turned out to be nothing more than wishful praying on the listing CPC hulk—not only because of the Harper-era reminders each one might have been, but also because: who wants to lead a party that’s become even worse since Harper resigned his seminal leadership? If the pusillanimous Pierre Poilievre is taking a pass, you know the CPC’s reputation of increasing extremism has become too entrenched, has become an issue with voters that even he won’t take on.
Canadians miss progressive conservatism, even to the point of giving the pseudo-eponymous HarperCons a try, reluctantly and without much love while waiting a decade for the natural-alternative Liberals to stop punching themselves out of the running. Since the PCs were treacherously absorbed into the Reform-a-CRAP-Alliance to form the CPC, and its new leader fought his first contest against the crumbling Liberal party, four of the last six governments have been minorities, Harper’s only, begrudged majority given its reality-check by the third-place rookie whose own majority—the other one—seems now only a bookend to continuing partisan anomalies and booby-prizes. It’s been seventeen years. Voters obviously yearn to return to normalcy and, if that’s even possible in this fast-changing, precarious environment, a revived progressive party of the right would probably be well received.
Thus, it remains that the CPC itself be reformed—drastically—or replaced. Plainly even may former HarperCons—the stars— the have condemned the first option, so maybe the second? From within, maybe? Starting a new party from scratch would likely need a few elections before having a shot at government, not very attractive to the American-style ‘get-it-done-yesterday’ Westerners who, although most culpable for the CPC’s current decrepitude, are still vitally necessary to win national government. Perhaps there isn’t enough of the long-view that used to typify Toryism left anywhere in the country anymore but, if there is, it’s in the East, the last refuge of the PCs under Charest and the re-capped Joe Clark—and of course, Peter MacKay, the very last PC leader who, after promising his party members he’d never join with the Western Reformers in order to secure the leadership, betrayed them just four-and-a-half months later. But at least he was a real, dyed-in-the-wool, Tory, son of Mulroney cabinet minister Elmer, and from the East Coast, the final resting place of the once great PC party.
Despite the somewhat ghoulish aspect of the sexton undoing his work, the inconcealable brand of HarperCondom, his display of self-entitlement by way of a series of cabinet posts, acquired by his treacherous betrayal of his own party, in which he consistently shone like dry scat, his humorous, amorous hubris that catapulted his star-powered lover into the enemy’s caucus, and his obvious “dumber” to JT’s “dumb,” MacKay has a few things to recommend him: he was, as mentioned, a PC and a real son of a PC; he would represent the Eastern half of the caucus which is now almost perfectly bisected from the West, a prospective passing of reins held since the CPC conception by Westerners; and he was smart enough, at least, to avoid the electoral thrashing the HarperCons took in 2015 (although this might also be seen as doubling down on a tendency to bail on his party(s)). Canadians’ yearning for a viable, moderate alternative to the Liberals, however, might be an overriding factor that recommends him most. The only other real Tory speculated had never been a HarperCon (he became Liberal leader and Premier of Quebec instead): it was always unlikely Charest would want to lead the party that destroyed his own, old Alma Mater. (And taking the long-view to start a new Tory party is a bit past him now, at his age. But his intelligence is obviously still in tact.)
Still, the question remains as to whether MacKay’s thrall he so brazenly showed to Harper is still in effect. After all, he has of his own account a record of backroom dirty dealing, and treachery only magnified by the same scruples inflicted on Canada by the government and cabinet he was party to. One should wonder, then, if he’s really content to perform the useful idiot role once again in return for some ostentatious public office, a stalking horse, as ‘t were, for another candidate—although “kamikaze” connotes something a little more courageous than a guy who said dogs are more loyal than (his former) girlfriends.
But for whom? Harper, IMHO, would instantly kill the party’s prospects if he was returned as leader. Could it be for Jason KeKangaroo Kenney’s much speculated jump to Ottawa from Alberta premiership? I too believe he’s the more dangerous prospect because, in comparison to MacKay, he’s the better candidate—at least for the Western half of the caucus. Which, as mentioned, is an issue in national context, history and current dichotomy and all. But I’m sure JKKK would reward MacKay if he were to do a repeat by garnering a commanding lead or close second in the contest, only to present it to another. One doesn’t need to be that smart to do something like that, nor to reward it, nor to see it for what it is.
Michael Chong—or even Lisa Raitt? Again, it might take them longer to reform the Reformers than to take the Tory long-view and start another Tory party. They are, however, both young enough and, so unlike CPC ethos, intelligent enough to take either on, although I suspect both are as disturbed by the increasing extremism the party is displaying and would display unabashedly if either had the K-Boy to run against.
Finally: Christy Clark? Oh, gawd! The musical-chairs game of names notwithstanding, the former leader of the far-right BC Liberals (the prefix to distinguish it from real Liberals), was a complete dud as BC Premier, didn’t have a seat for a large chunk of her caretaker premiership (after her predecessor was driven from office in disgrace), lost her by-election seat in the following general election which her party won anyway, not because of her but, rather, because the Opposition NDP ran a most foolish “positive politics” campaign against a talk-radio host who revels in gleeful vitriol but had absolutely no policy chops whatsoever, allowed corruption to flourish, and resigned not only her leadership, but her seat, too, when her party came up a seat short in the last provincial election and immediately lost a confidence vote, effectively armouring the Green-Dipper alliance which will likely achieve a full four-year term. The BC Liberal party she left in the bight of disgrace and revealed perfidy. Why her name keeps being put forward is yet another indicator of how desperate the CPC’s situation is.
But I’d highly recommend her as CPC leader. That’s anther indicator of what I think of the CPC party. It’s in serious trouble and it don’t bother me one bit.
Christy clark as leader of anything, yikes. Now going back to her reign in B.C. We became the no. 1 leader of deaths by fent. in the country. she did nothing to stop it and wouldn’t even ban pill presses, which at least Alberta did. The continued use of casinos to launder money reached new heights as did money laundering via real estate. It became known as the Vancouver model. Sure elect Christy Clark to leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, then the whole country can become one huge mess with fent. deaths from sea to sea along with casinos laundering not just billions of dollars but hundreds of billions of dollars.
Harper? In the last election he won, he managed to fill Quebec with NDP seats and raise Layton to sainthood. Which wasn’t the plan.
Kenney is resentful that both the Quebec premier and the leader of the Bloc Quebecois have been derisive and dismissive of Alberta’s whining about equalization and claims that the province underpins the entire nation’s economy with their dilbit being sold for a low US$35 a barrel and pitifully small royalties. He also choked back tears of rage when criticized over environmental concerns by those darn Quebeckers who claimed to be on a higher intellectual plane of consciousness than he. Which is true but due more to good luck and hydro than good management. To Jason, his provincial government employees and Quebec are the same thing – the enemy, along with those dastardly foreign-funded environmentalists. The man’s mindset exists in an alternate reality not dissimilar to the US’s fear the world is out to get them when with 800 overseas military bases, the exact opposite is true. But a little paranoia keeps you sharp, it is said.
So for the CPC led by either of those two old-timey ideologues, you can cross off any Tory MPs from Quebec. That’s a big electoral hole to climb out of on the day. It isn’t going to happen because harper and kenney think too much of themselves to be ridiculed. We will thus be left to the tender mercies of the Liberals, hardly an avant garde group of thinkers themselves, and tied to business just as much as the Tories, but with a better line of make-believe patter.
Safari-Albertan harper used not to care, because the rest of the country voted him in to be a repressive and ethically-warped, Supreme Court-challenging right wing dogmatic pedagogue who managed to rack up some big capital spending deficits despite cancelling weekly pocket money allowances for the legions of we Canadian drones. Just to keep us lean and mean in a competitive world. “Don’t do as I do, do what I say, I’m number one cheese in this here country and a nucular expert to boot, and I’ve scoped out all the available safety closets in Centre Block if a pitchfork rebellion comes my way. Nigel works for me as does Ray, so watch your step!”. Game, set and match then, Stevie, especially with that Alexander snitch line and Kellie Leitch going cyborg for the 2015 election. The kook and weirdo show was on full bozo parade at the end of that campaign, wasn’t it? Desperate demagogues who could see the brass ring slipping away from their grasp. Still, for light relief harper did present Canada with the best human imitator of an Attack Beaver, one John Baird, who stayed until one fine day, he found he couldn’t stand himself in the role either, and resigned.
These days, look at the Darth Vader Dope tearing Ontario apart to avenge old personal slights and criticism of his goofball schemes for TTC transit and green zones, making unqualified cronies heads of commissions, while keeping teachers on the boil to strike beyond the current rotations. He wants to teach students by app in bigger classes, or at home, and to sell said apps to a grateful world beyond Ontario’s “open for business” borders. The man is a complete disaster. It wouldn’t be hard to tar the CPC with Ford’s sins in an election – even the pink baby-soft hands of the personally fiscally aware closet Yankee Desk Clerk Expert Scheer kept Doug locked up in a shed for the duration of the last federal election campaign. A train wreck is a train wreck – even the CPC could see that.
Kenney’s already king o’ the Prairies, exulting and fulfilling his fantasies putting the boots to provincial government workers, those overpaid public service parasites who inexplicably voted NDP. Perhaps his giant ego thinks he could take Canada back to the days when a man was a man and everyone knew their place – but he’s so open to ridicule for the War Room and stoking wexit among the woolly-brained, he hasn’t got a chance nationally. Glib blarney only goes do far. Doug has queered the pitch for these old Con jokers in urban Ontario.
MacKay, despite being a genial stumblebum with little innate sense of right and wrong and a very, very limited ability to speak French, probably has a better chance of keeping the CPC as a viable entity than do the full bore tut-tutters and barking dogs of the right. Plus, he’s malleable and open to backroom advice. Could be a useful stooge.
We’ll see what happens today on the nomination front. So far at 5 pm Atlantic time, there hasn’t been a peep from anyone beyond MacKay. Could it be true that the CPC has shot its bolt, and that the difficulty of finding anyone of real stature with the ability to be bilingual in a bilingual country has stretched the resources of the CPC beyond its overfull coffers of attack dog money? Seems that way. Dave Broadfoot would have had a field day with this. Sergeant Renfrew once chased a suspect on the autoroute to the town of Prochaine Sortie, and my favourite line of his was “You tell a Canadian he’s apathetic and he’ll answer, ‘Who cares?” Or she, for that matter – the “protestors” for the Meng Wanzhou extradition hearing were hired actors – one of the dumbos told CBC she’d never heard of Huawei or Meng so didn’t spot the con and needed the $150. Multiply that by millions of the underinformed and there you have the quandary the CPC (or any party) faces, even without having a viable Quebec base. And with all the CPC party factions each hyped up on their niche complaints barring MacKay, how do you come up with a national strategy anyway? The CPC is but a quack quack show of the collected societally disaffected and is falling apart in my estimation.
“Who are these people? Has anyone except their mothers ever heard of them?” Since each is presumably the off spring of solid family values Conservative stock, there’s a better than even chance their fathers have heard of them too.
I should be a dyed in the wool Conservative. My socioeconomic status, my demographic, and Province of residences all point to this.
I am a fiscal conservative but I am not a social conservative. This puts me at odds with the Party. I won’t consider supporting them until the disproportionate influence of socons within the Party is dealt with. Sorry Peter. If you are trying to be all things to all members it won’t work for me.
I believe that there are far more important issues to be dealt with other than the usual abortion, gay marriage, and LGBQ that these folks like to focus on. These issues have been resolved. Time to move forward. If not I fear that the PM’s chair may be beyond reach.
It was very revealing watching Kenney’s Holocaust Memorial message.
While he took the time to denounce anti-Semitism, he also took a good deal of time telling everyone how welcoming Alberta is, how tolerant it is of all peoples, and how the province cherishes its tradition of peace and harmony for all.
Oh, and I (Heart) Alberta Oil.
No he didn’t go that far, but you could see he was holding back.
As for Alberta being a welcoming and tolerant place, I suppose if one were to ignore the long history of organized intolerance in Alberta, such a person would be immediately considered deaf, dumb, blind, and stupid.
Consider for a moment the dark underbelly of racism and anti-Semitism in Alberta, which includes the Social Credit’s frequent declarations of the existence of the international Jewish conspiracy, the well-documented political influence of the KKK in Edmonton, and rural Alberta being a warm place for the likes of Jim Keegstra et al, and one learns that there is fertile ground in Alberta for all kinds of hateful entities. Entities that the UCP was only too willing to coddle for the sake of their votes in the last election.
As someone who votes conservative my first concern is that neither Peter MacKay or Erin O’Toole are fluent in French, unfortunately a prerequisite to electoral success in Quebec. This requirement eliminates of 82% of people living in Canada including myself from successfully running for Prime Minister. Rick Peterson happens to be fluent in French but nobody knows who he is so his chance at success is somewhat limited. I think Both Peter and Erin are an improvement over Andrew Scheer but are they the answer, only time will tell.
In answer to your question. Absolutely not. MacKay just doesn’t have what it takes. Baird won’t get elected to the leadership if he does run. Any one who might do a good job of being the conservative leader isn’t interested in running.
I’m not a Conservative or a P.C., but the party does represent the views of many in Canada and voters need a party to put their X next to. Its part of the democracy thing. Having a number of viable parties running in elections is healthy for democracy. Every party in office needs to be help accountable and that is where the other parties come in. If the governing party starts to “f.u.” then another party needs to be there to be elected. It keeps every one at least trying to do a decent job. Lets hope the Conservative or P.C.s get their act together