Alberta NDP candidate Kyle Campbell won the Calgary-Shaw by-election last night, beating the United Conservative Party’s Mike Derry in a contest that looked too close for comfort most of the evening as vote numbers trickled onto Elections Alberta’s website.
But the final unofficial result – 7,461 votes for Mr. Campbell to 6,879 for Mr. Derry – is safe enough for the Opposition party led by former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi to feel entitled crow about a victory in what has historically been a reliably Conservative suburban electoral district. There will be no need for a recount of Mr. Campbell’s 47-per-cent victory.
Former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz, whose resignation took effect on May 15, won by big margins in the last two general elections. In the years since the riding was created in 1986, Calgary-Shaw has only once before elected a non-Conservative, in 2015, the year of the Orange Wave led by Rachel Notley.
Not to rain on the NDP’s well-deserved parade, but Mr. Derry was a remarkably bad candidate. He was not the choice of the UCP’s leadership and was associated with some of the most extreme elements of the governing party’s base. It’s safe to assume that quiet dissatisfaction with Premier Smith’s divisive separation referendum and such unpopular UCP policies as its support for AI data centres and health care privatization also contributed to last night’s outcome.
Nevertheless, the usual by-election caveats apply: turnout was low, and so are the stakes relatively speaking. That is why by-elections are always an opportunity for Opposition parties to get out a protest vote, as UCP leaders are sure to remind us today.
So no one in the NDP should imagine this is an opportunity to rest on their laurels and assume the UCP won’t run a better campaign with a better candidate during a general election. Indeed, some New Democrats disillusioned with Mr. Nenshi’s low-energy, at times seemingly disengaged style of campaigning will view this as a lost opportunity to get a more energetic, more focused leader. Say, Deputy Leader Rakhi Pancholi.
Well, we can assume Mr. Nenshi will be going forward as the leader in the next general election. “We lost in this riding in 2019 by 40 points, this was considered one of the safest, if not the safest, conservative seats in Calgary,” he told supporters last night after the results were known. “You all have proved something. There are no safe conservative seats in Calgary.”
Last night’s results also showed the potential for minor-party candidates to act as spoilers in a close election, although who took which votes from whom is not necessarily obvious. Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph posted 978 votes and Alberta Liberal Leader John Roggeveen 602. Together not quite triple the difference between the two leading candidates.
It seems likely the UCP strategic brain trust will assume Mr. Joseph’s tally robbed them of victory. One imagines Progressive Tory Leader and former UCP cabinet minister Peter Guthrie will reach a similar conclusion.
Elections Alberta has not yet posted its estimate of the number of eligible voters in the riding at the time of the by-election, but there were just under 40,000 in the 2023 general election. Official results will be published on Sept. 24.
CORRECTION: Ms. Schulz’s resignation took effect on May 15. An incorrect date appeared in an earlier version of this story.
Good! I recall a song from the 1970s, called I Believe In Miracles. Yes I do believe in miracles. This is very telling for the UCP and Danielle Smith. It shows that voters are legitimately angry at the UCP and Danielle Smith, for numerous reasons. They don’t like anyone on AISH being forced to live far below the poverty line, and being forced to be employed when they have health conditions, or other obstacles that prevent them from being employed. Water being poisoned with selenium from coal mines on the Eastern Slopes, while the mountains are being defaced into an ugly looking state. A very costly referendum on separation, which has numerous red flags, because of what it contains. Our elderly have to pay for costs that they never had to pay for before. Public education and public healthcare are being compromised, while private education is getting the lion’s share of the funding, and public healthcare is being replaced with private for profit healthcare. The priciest boondoogles, that even squander billions of dollars happens. Disregarding the will of the majority, while having minority special interest groups hey their way, such as for private education financial support. Treating democracy as if it’s a joke. So many issues. Danielle Smith will not have many Legislature sessions, so that’s an issue. For those that stayed home, and didn’t bother to vote in this by-election, that’s a shame. To those who voted and showed the UCP and Danielle Smith a message, good for you!
Right on!
Around 6,879 Maga world destroyers are alive and well in Calgary-Shaw. Their candidate in the form of Derry is upheld by a group of seditious terrorists who blindly follow their insane leader Danielle Smith who follows her insane mentor in the form of Trump. We are truly doomed. While Kyle Campbell won the by-election he must work for all of his constituents even if they hate him, as the Mega group surely spew their contemptuous hatred toward all those who do not subscribe to White Christian Nationalism. Hypocrites define the UCP. Nenshi had better not get comfortable because he is politicizing in a dystopian world that is outright dangerous. As vile as Nenshi’s opposition are, they are also organized zealots. These fascists are downright petulant, violent, stupid, myopic idiots who are too stupid to realize that they are doing Putin and Trump’s bidding. Soulless things like Smith have gleefully sold out to the despots of the world. The arena is splattered in the blood of innocents whose names will never be spoken, but who die nonetheless. It is beyond disgusting that 6,879 dupes have voted for a thing that would gladly do its utmost to bring about the rapture. News flash. There will never be a rapture because the whole sky daddy idiocy is just that, madness.
I wish Mr. Campbell luck. He will need it.
Harsh, but accurate.
That was quite the screed on last night’s election and going forward. I agree with it 100%. And add that Nenshi can’t take a day off in the next month. Rubber hits the road time.
Well said!! Your vehemence captures what I feel about Smith, Kenney, Harper, the UCP, and all its supporters!
In order to succeed in the upcoming provincial election, the NDP needs to do well in ridings like Calgary Shaw. So this result provided an encouraging answer for that.
Of course a lot will happen over the next few months and by election results do not always predict the future. Although one of Smith’s strengths is to generally project unflappable confidence and this is also the type of riding the UCP needs to win. Her aura of invincibility, which she has maintained so far despite all her various problems, has taken a hit now.
I feel things could get even more difficult for Smith as she tries to continue to juggle appeasing her separatist supporters, while also trying to claim she supports remaining in Canada in the upcoming referendum, which most Albertans do not even seem to want now. Add to this her tepid support for Canada in the ongoing trade war, which is also out of step with how most Albertans feel.
While these may not have been the main issues in this local by election, they are already looming and will become even bigger in the near future.
It will also be interesting to see how Smith and the UCP reacts to the message voters have just given them. She is good at platitudes and getting out of tricky situations in the past, but she also doesn’t seem to be one for turning or changing course much. So this could be the beginning of a bumper ride for her and the UCP.
Congratulations to Kyle Campbell and the NDP. Thank you to the people of Calgary Shaw for bringing hope to these dark days in Alberta.
I respectfully disagree that the stakes were low, but that is for another day.
On this same morning, we have a vivid reminder of what statesmanship is all about. Prime Minister Carney has shown us on a world stage that we are worthy of his calibre. Some Premiers should never have risen beyond being raucous school board recalcitrants. No more room for mediocrity and mayhem a new world beckons!
A special note of thanks to the people of Calgary Shaw for giving Alberta some oxygen. All of Canada knows we needed it.
And a closing note to the NDP soldiers who carried the weight and responsibility of this election on their shoulders. A lot can be said about the final result, but it was built on their tireless work in the trenches from the starting gun to the sigh of relief. If I could, I would thank them all personally.
Alberta remains part of our Federation; the separatist scourge has been at least temporarily put in its place with their sidekick Smith.
May Alberta rise like a Phoenix, for better days, better ways, and a brighter future.
Danielle Smith’s days as premier are numbered. In stead of nipping the bud of crises, she spawned one crisis after another and shows a reckless leadership, creating incredible uncertainty for the future of Albertans. It’s time for her to go.
I’m shocked that so many people voted for UCP when average Albertans will be bankrupted by private health care.
Healthcare is a luxury item, like a Lexus. One has only to look at the army of homeless junkies in downtown Calgary to see that human beings can endure significant physical degradation, and still walk in a semi-upright bipedal fashion. What more could one need? Only some people become bankrupted by private healthcare. Mostly lay-abouts and socialists. Grifter-yokels are superstitious and lack empathy, so it won’t be them because they’re special and other people, by definition, are not.
Hello DJC and fellow commenters,
I am concerned that this election result will spur Danielle Smith and the UCP to intensify the propaganda that they already put out. They will, undoubtedly, re-evaluate how to step up the intensity to sway the vote in their favour. They will view this as a warning that they need to refine the rhetoric against Ottawa and against the provincial opposition in order to stay in power.
Smith has prepared for this eventuality with her gerrymandering UCP-dominated committee.
Spring election! The UCP brain trust will be looking at the numbers and deciding to go earlier than October 2027 to try to counter the impact of the Tory Party on close ridings throughout the province. Not just Calgary. Now how will those UCP MLA’s in those tight ridings feel about this? Hmmmm. Maybe they should look west at BC, jump overboard now and either join the Tories or form a new party. Otherwise, their ship is going down. No more big pay cheques. Back to the grader on Monday morning!
Although Schulz said she would be resigning in January, it only took effect in May when she actually pulled the plug.
John: You’re right. My apologies. A correction has been published on the two stories on which this incorrect information appeared. It is interesting to note that Google’s “Artificial Intelligence” function continues to post Jan. 2 as the date of her resignation, whence came the information when I forgot the date and checked. DJC
This is ENTIRELY the fault of Danielle Smith, a leader so corrupt, so incompetent, so dishonest, so disdainful of her constituents that she drove one of the most conservative ridings in the province into the arms of a pretty weak opposition. In fact it mirrors the success the Democratic Party has been having, the Democrats suck and pretty much everyone knows that. The problem is the deranged occupant of the gilded White House, who will be remembered as the most reviled president in the history of that country. Trump has made the entire republican brand toxic. In much the same fashion Danielle’s legacy is catching up with her faster than a golden panther.
The UCP are not fiscally responsible nor socially progressive. Numerous financial disasters stain their reign.
The collapse of solar / wind projects (nearly none now when when it was flourishing before) due to their governance changes
Unnecessary Keystone XL pipeline guarantees (1.5 Billion lost),
Nearly the highest electricity rates in Canada (regulatory mismanagement)
Coal company legal settlements (hundreds of millions),
Duplication of police services (Sheriffs), and many easily found examples.
Governance is similarly bad.
Forcing legally striking workers back to work through not with standing clause and brutal penalties.
Pushing minorities back into the closet through “parental” rights nonsense – violating children’s charter rights to be free from discrimination
Allowing separatists to have a referendum when they can’t even elect an MLA,
Claiming the 400K petition signatures to stay in canada signatures were demanding a referendum when those people were signing to NOT have a referendum.
The current regime is neither progressive nor fiscally conservative – they govern from a lens of cronyism, incompetence, and religious fundamentalism. Please conservatives, realize these people do not represent you, vote another way.
The fact that the ANDP won at all, in a riding where Rebecca Schultz won handily last time, is amazing. And the fact that the Tories, which broke away from the UCP because of the health care corruption scandal, got nearly 1000 votes which otherwise would have allowed the UCP to win again, is also very significant.
Well this was an interesting ride. I believe first off the NDP identified their vote and got it to the polls. The UCP had a crap ground game, I believe. By contrast they relied on magic advertising incantations that failed on E day.
Did the vote split matter. Hard to say. My question is this: would the progressive Tory types have voted for the UCP if their progressive Tory party had no candidate, or would they have stayed home?
Finally, by-elections are rarely predictions of anything, unless there is a chain of successful by-election results, but even that is no guarantee.
Anyways, hearty congratulations to all the hard workers and party volunteers who made this victory possible. As an old party organizer I know the hard work and dedication it takes to create the effective E day voter dragnet.
Where is Evan Li? I’ve read that he’s attending UBC. I’d really like to see him run in the next general election in Alberta. He’s articulate, intelligent, passionate about justice, humane — everything that we need and all of which is sorely lacking in the UCP government. Maybe they got too many spankings when they were children.
Seriously, Evan, please consider it. We need you. We need a young person to represent Alberta’s future. It’s not looking good right now. I’d vote for you and volunteer to help out.
This was a great unexpected result, however, I fear now more than ever that the UCP will try some serious gerrymandering in November. Watch Edmonton and Calgary suddenly become much more rural and be forced to wear cowboy boots.
I really thought the UCP supporters would come through for them. I was wrong. Maybe the UCP’s problems are bigger than they think.
The result in Calgary Shaw does further demonstrate that anything a certain Craig Chandler touches turns to merde. Based on previous iterations (school board trustee, floor crossing MLA), so does Ms. Smith. Perhaps the two can join forces for the upcoming election.
A quick gander at the social media of Grifter-yokels involved in this defeat indicates that the protest vote against Marlainia was a result of her failure to sufficiently advocate for secession. Many, many years ago my father told me that the Reform party could never form a government in Canada. He is not a dummy, but he suffers from having spent his adult years living in the post-war grudging accommmodation made by capital in the face of actual socialism. Folks with this particular affliction did not perceive the frog-boiling that began in 1972, until it was too late. Even a full-blown grifter like Mulroney at least had to conform to public standards of civility in order to hold office. The likes of Rob Anders and Logan Day were MAGA before Drumpftards were MAGA. The derp is real, and there is a lot of it in this Province. It would be nice to see Nenshi defeat the Grifter-yokels, but even if this happens, there is no agency for social democrats to implement any form of economic democracy, and his legacy will be as wretched as Rachel Notley’s. Kons undertook socioeconomic revolutions in the seventies and eighties. By their very nature they unrelentingly seek power both for themselves and their owners. Progs are entirely incapable of anything remotely disruptive to the economic status quo.
Unless you’re going through the social media of Calgary Shaw constituents one by one I would be putting exactly zero faith in what the grifter yokels are saying about a protest vote. Sure they are, and the coyote is certain the grapes he can’t reach are sour. Those people will say anything, and most of it is lies, many of them aren’t real people at all.