Surely nobody expected Finance Minister Nate Horner to stand up in the Alberta Legislature yesterday and table an NDP budget. But that’s pretty much what he did.
In the leadup to the 2026 Budget Speech, Mr. Horner made lots of noises about hard choices, tough times, and how Albertans don’t back down from challenges.
“In times like this, you tighten your belt,” said a grim-faced Mr. Horner, wearing a sombre dove-grey cowboy hat, in a two-and-a-half minute pre-budget video warning us we were going to have to get on that mean-tempered bronc and hold on for dear life! Budget Day was coming!
Come the Budget Speech yesterday, though, other than leading with that whopping $9.4-billion deficit, Mr. Horner had basically no bad news at all.
I mean that literally, as far as the speech went. Mr. Horner opened with a bleak promise of what was to come: “Let’s cut to the chase … if this budget is passed, Alberta will face a deficit of $9.4 billion this fiscal year,” he said grimly. “That’s the reality in front of us.”
“Albertans deserve to hear that first. Not last. Not softened or buried under technical language. Budget 2026 carries a substantial deficit … one that is significantly higher than projected last year. With this shift, it’s clear, this year will require tough choices. Some of them won’t be popular. But all of them will be necessary to face the challenges ahead.”
Then we waited … and waited. There never was any really bad news in the Budget Speech itself.
That’s not to say everyone will be delighted by everything in the budget. There will be plenty to complain about, including that huge property tax increase on homeowners who will blame municipalities, just as there are bound to be major disagreements about how the money is allocated.
Still, as Mr. Horner said, Alberta may be running a “considerable” deficit, “but we’re not making massive program cuts. And we’re not raising personal income taxes. …. We are choosing to protect Alberta’s long-term financial strength so the next generation will have more options to deal with their tough choices.”
There are no plans to return to balanced budgets any time soon, he conceded. No can do. Look for four consecutive deficit budgets. And this budget will break the province’s purely performative budget laws, he admitted. But you’ve got to keep the lights on and plan for population growth, right?
The “historic” increases in health care and education budgets telegraphed by Premier Danielle Smith this week are all in there – even if the government intends to spend some of that money on the wrong things, like privatized surgeries. “In Budget 2026, total health care investment is $34.4 billion,” Mr. Horner boasted. “Budget 2026 commits a record $10.8 billion in 2026-27 in education.” Why, they’re even investing in public service salaries! “Competitive wages aren’t just about labour relations. They are about service delivery!”
The budget commits $28.3 billion to capital investment, Mr. Horner said. After all, “oil prices are weak.” Projected provincial debt is $109 billion by next year and nearly $140 billion by 2029. The UCP even slipped in a sales tax – 6 per cent on car rentals, starting in January 2027. Thin edge of the wedge, anyone? Mr. Horner did say on Wednesday that five-per-cent sales tax would bring in about $6-billion, but he added that he’s not going to call for a referendum on a sales tax … “right now.”
So, who says this doesn’t sound like an NDP budget? I mean, other than the sales tax stuff, which the NDP never dared to contemplate.
Joe Ceci, the first and last NDP finance minister of Alberta, would have felt right at home giving a speech like this. Indeed, he did, on April 14, 2016.
Mr. Ceci’s budget that year had a $10.4-billion deficit, and focused on stimulating the economy in response to sinking oil prices with lots of capital projects. Predictions were that debt would reach $58 billion within three years.
Conservatives went nuts. “Irresponsible and misguided,” screeched a well-known Postmedia columnist. “These giant meteors of over-spending are hurtling towards taxpayers,” Lorne Gunter hyperventilated in the Edmonton Sun. Holy Cow! Giant meteors!
“Today, the NDP failed on all fronts,” moaned then Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean. “Over the long term that means less money for hospitals, less money for schools, for teachers and nurses, for those front-line services that Albertans hold dear.”
“The fact is, the debt will at some point get beyond the fiscal capacity of the government,” warned Ric McIver, then the leader of the Progressive Conservatives in the Legislature, un-factually as it turned out. Debt was “the monster in the room,” he said. “I think that is a disaster waiting to happen.”
Well, that was then and this is now. In defence of New Democrats of recent history, their budget included a considerable deficit (as Mr. Horner would have it) during a bust, not a boom. “Alberta has the highest oil production in history with record high royalties,” said Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi yesterday. “But the UCP has done something no Alberta government has. They’ve wasted a boom during the boom!”
That’s fair, as is the NDP’s complaint that the UCP isn’t getting its money’s worth for the vast sums it’s spending.
Postmedia will take it easier on the government now that the government’s run by the United Conservative Party, not supposedly high-risk social democrats led by Rachel Notley.
Yesterday, columnist Rick Bell fretted about sales taxes, but concluded Premier Smith would never do that. His colleague Don Braid called the budget bleak. Mr. Gunter, loyally, said, “if I’m going to have to live with a free-spending government, I’ll take the UCP over the NDP any day.” But nobody over at Postmedia is talking about monsters or interstellar collisions.
“Here in Alberta,” Mr. Horner said in his speech, “we don’t just hope for another boom.” Nope, we pray for ’em!
Ah, this government in Alberta, or any of them over the past 50 plus years. They all have had a revenue and taxation problem. Not one of them has wished to level with the voter, and say all of us cannot continue to live the life of Riley on a never ending credit spree. The NDP who rescued Saskatchewan from bankruptcy post WW2 ought to have been able to suggest appropriate royalties,and an introduction of an HST, at least. Oh well. When the market for oil shrinks further post 2030, then maybe Albertans will stop living in lala land. And some politicians will pick up this prickly nettle. Nobody at the moment seems to have a jot of a plan other than to wave the magic wand of separation. That is fool’s gold, for certain.
Grim. While I expected the budget would be disappointing, if I had to now pick one word to best describe it, I would say it was grim.
The $9.4 billion deficit will now be splashed across the all headlines for quite a while and become the focus for political discussion, particularly amongst fiscal conservatives who were already leery about Smith’s financial competence. As Nenshi said, never has a government spent so much for so little. Of course all those health care reorganizations are not cheap, nor apparently are all those private facility contracts, not to mention the wasted, expired pain medication. This all adds up and it sure doesn’t go to patient care, which perhaps partly explains our low per capita spending compared to many other provinces.
It is true the NDP had big deficits too, however those were in times where oil production and prices were lower. Although, the UCP is using oil prices around $5/barrel lower than now for its budget projections plus a $2 billion contingency reserve, so it is possible this deficit could end up lower. However, I’m not sure many people will be dancing in the streets if the deficit only turns out to be $7 billion or so.
Unfortunately, there can be a high price for having a not so competent government, this budget reminds Albertans of that.
These are excellent examples of how these Postmedia columnists spew utter rubbish, and lie about the NDP. Equally appalling is many of the comments.
Licia Corbella: Rachel Notley can’t run on her record as premier because it’s a disaster | Edmonton Journal https://share.google/YAdfR68EwNmtd1wRn
GUNTER: School program backlash shows Smith’s critics can’t be satisfied | Edmonton Sun https://share.google/qm7F4Vqs4LqmBYp1p
Bell: Danielle Smith and UCP mock NDP Nenshi, the so-called rock star | Calgary Herald https://share.google/9v6kBZYplheJJkkdI
My old man worked for the Albertan, back in the day and when they got bought by Sun Media he quit. he called the Sun a gossip rag. The infiltration into Alberta and Canada by Post Media and the opinions, that they pass off as news is Bullshit. And these columnists, are no better than Jerry Springer, or Geraldo Rivera.
That Gunter quote is gold. Never has a lack of self awareness been so obvious to so many.
I’m not sure what the mayor of Calgary said in a post on one of his social media accounts. It must have been something because it was deemed too sensitive and removed within 10 minutes by the moderators. Maybe it said something about the $300 provincial property tax increase on Calgarians being nothing but an equalization program within Alberta, of the ilk the UCP complains about federally every day. Maybe it accused the UCP of operating a Ponzi scheme wherein the con takes cash from one set of rubes (Calgarians) to pay the unpaid property taxes owed by oil companies to the rubes in rural municipalities. Everybody’s too stupid to see it or something? We can only imagine because whatever it said was stomped out like Smokey the Bear putting out a fire.
What we do know is that Calgary is heading into four more weeks of water restrictions which is putting residents in a right mood. Republican prayer breakfasts in the foreign land that wants to end us and cavorting with the Carotene King in his Palm Beach palace come at a price. But what is the price and where is the budget line for helping UCP-voting big cities replace their crack(ed) pipes? Censured/censored.
Lorne “the guntster” never disappoints. Can these cons get any more hypocritical?
CX: I’m pretty sure we haven’t even scratched the surface! DJC
To be hypocritical one must have principles.
PRINCIPLES? ALBERTA? UCP?
HEE HAW.
It’s not an NDP budget because it doesn’t address the basic underlying, flawed, premise. That privatization costs more within a decade of its expansion and that’s exactly where Alberta’s UCP is heading only not only are they picking the pockets of the electorate with privatization, they’re doing it by raising taxes on the middle/lower classes and increasing the deficit whose interest, those same people will pay.
They need to stop praying for booms and expand their industries and tax the rich. But nope, that never occurs to them, clearly.
B: This assumes that the NDP does not offer just another brand of neoliberalism – Neoliberalism Lite, as I have put it in this space on occasion, or neoliberalism with a human face, with apologies to the late Alexander Dubček. As another commentator put it this morning, the whole point of the two-party charade is to give voters the ability to throw the bums out without any change whatsoever to the rotten system. DJC
DJC, if you hadn’t noticed, I’m not on the NDP’s side either. For exactly the reasons you just outlined.
Before Jack Layton they were actually Democratic Socialists. Remember Ed Broadbent? Now THAT was my guy. Then Jack gave them a whiff of power and they’ve been stoned on the idea ever since instead of true to their roots.
At this point, they’re a useless embarrassment all the way ’round. Provincial and feds.
Who you calling a girl? You calling me a girl?
Even the Fraser Institute called them out on their corporate welfare setup lol. Almost choked out that deadly phrase ‘increase taxes’- couldn’t quite bring themselves to do it.
So while Albertans continue to be treated like morons and are fed lie that times are always tough Alaskans and Norwegians continue to enjoy what their oil wealth brings them, that’s how stupid we are.
They show no concern for the billions of dollars they are adding to our children and grandchildren’s financial future while they help the rich become a lot richer.
Alan K. Spiller: Exactly.
Perhaps the most telling statement of all is the one attributed to Mr. Nenshi, “Alberta has the highest oil production in history with record high royalties”. When referencing the tax and royalty revenues of resources in Alberta, one also needs to factor in natural gas, but it is abundantly clear that relying on oil & gas taxes and royalties to fund provincial expenditures is insufficient. The implication is clear for those who want to see it. To fund the services expected and demanded in a modern economy, with an aging population, additional revenue sources are required.
Despite what ‘Saint’ Reagan and others of the right wing ilk have been promising since the 80’s, lowering tax rates on profitable businesses and high earning individuals, ‘trickle down economics’ shall we say……. does not work, and only leads to increasing income inequality and hoarding of money by the rich. With the paradigm creeping ever rightward, even the NDP is hesitant to broach the uncomfortable topic of increased taxation. While I am not really in favour of a Sales/Consumption tax as it is especially punitive for low income earners, additional revenues are required. So either endless deficits are the norm, or society actually has grown up discussions on taxation, maybe even put it to a referendum!
The other option is to pursue the Logan’s Run model (we could venture off on a segue referencing Farrah Fawcett’s early screen role, but we strive to keep it professional here at AB Politics), but as I (as is DJC and most of the blog readers) am over 30, I would prefer the threshold to achieving utopia being higher than that…….
The comparative Gunter quotes tell us all we need to know about conservative voters in Alberta. Essentially: ‘My mind is made up; don’t confuse me with the facts. If my mind is confused by facts, I will ignore the facts.’
“It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”, is an apt summation.
Or it is simply,
ludicrous
adjective
lu·di·crous ˈlü-də-krəs
: amusing or laughable through obvious absurdity, incongruity, exaggeration, or eccentricity
: meriting derisive laughter or scorn as absurdly inept, false, or foolish
So for example,
“Nixon says the NDP has a poor track record on financial management, given that the provincial debt is projected to hit $95 billion by 2023. “It is clear that the NDP are not serious about balancing the budget. This will have real consequences for Albertans. Higher debt and more interest (payments) simply means less for public services.””
https://globalnews.ca/news/5112571/alberta-election-ndp-spending-promises/
And then what do we have in 2026,
“Once passed, the fiscal shortfall will break the government’s own fiscal framework, which mandates against three consecutive deficits. Thursday’s deficit also exceeds the framework’s allowable size of deficit by more than $4 billion.”
Where the joke’s punchline is the following,
“The province’s total debt for 2026-27, including taxpayer and self-supported debt, is forecast to grow by $17.9 billion beyond prior estimates, up to $128.7 billion, marking a 16 per cent increase.”
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-budget-2026-deficit-ucp-spending
And as also noted by Mr. Climenhaga:
“Projected provincial debt is $109 billion by next year and nearly $140 billion by 2029.”
The old chestnut regarding the role of the 2 party system in the ongoing political cups and balls style charade always springs to mind,
“The argument that the two parties should represent opposed ideals and policies, one, perhaps, of the Right and the other of the Left, is a foolish idea acceptable only to the doctrinaire and academic thinkers. Instead, the two parties should be almost identical, so that the . . . people can “throw the rascals out” at any election without leading to any profound or extreme shifts in policy.”
The public, so easily manipulated and deceived, would have it no other way having been thoroughly indoctrinated in the doctrine of “there is no other way”. Where, “The idiom “pull the wool over someone’s eyes” means to deceive someone in order to prevent them from discovering the truth. It implies tricking or misleading someone into believing something that is not true.”
More questions than answers about the UCP’s rationale for decreasing the eligibility limit for the Seniors Benefit. Last time I bought groceries, the prices were higher not lower. So they want more seniors relying on the food bank? And what about dental benefits which are tied to the Seniors Benefit? Do they expect seniors to switch over to the Federal Dental Plan? You know, the one Smith said Alberta would withdraw from in 2026. This year! And aren’t seniors part of the UCP voting block? Like WTF are they thinking?
Modern conservative politicians only think about themselves and their political owners. For some reason, they think people don’t notice this fact.
Okay. So it’s not a spending problem anymore. If anything it’s a spend-spend-spend until it feels good. Right now the UCP must be beside themselves because they not only moved the Overton Window, they broke every window in it. Of course, the ABNDP can attack the UCP on their spending priorities, pushing more public funding into private interests. But isn’t that … SOCIALISM?!?! This is socialism for people who confuse it with communism, but also wouldn’t know communism if it bit them on the ass.
75% of the population of Alberta lives in cities, and the Yokel-grifters continue to trade on tripe like Horner’s Halloween costume. What can one make of a scenario in which a government like this emerged? The Orange Maggot seems very keen to provide an opportunity for the Chinese to test their radars and missiles in Persia this week, so perhaps the Strait of Hormuz will finally be blocked and an ensuing rise in the price of oil will save Alberta. Meanwhile, we live in a province that once had the elements of advanced economy but where Gasoline Alley was used as the economic development model for the last fifty years.
Of that 75% you mention, too many of them live in the smaller cities and tend to vote in lockstep with rural voters — except, perhaps, in Lethbridge and in the “doughnut” municipalities surrounding the two big cities. Look at Medicine Hat, or Red Deer, or Fort McMurray*, or Grande Prairie (where I live): you would be hard-pressed to find safer conservative seats in either the provincial or federal arena.
*Yeah, yeah, I know, Fort McMurray isn’t really a city, it’s the “Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo”. Not even zoologically accurate, since the “buffalo” are really bison.
Maybe it is time for a 5% sales tax in Alberta. UCP supporters will have forgotten about it by the next election
Good column, but one big oversight IMO. The decrease in the cut off incomes for seniors benefits are going to really hurt some very vulnerable people. I expect a year from now we’ll hear the Premier or her Minister talk about how they “lifted” x thousand seniors out of reliance on benefits.
Oh if only there were honest discussions reaching all Albertans. The provincial governments (Conservatives for decades – with a short NDP blip) have squandered Alberta’s finances thinking that oil would ALWAYS save them, while blaming the federal government for all ills. Nothing could be more obvious but somehow they are going to blame Ottawa and continue the rape of the public for the private.
Typo alert: This photo caption.
“NDP finance minister Joe Ceci meets the media on Budget Day, April 14, 2026 (Photo: David J. Climenhaga).”
Thanks, Jerry, it’s been corrected. DJC
It seems unlikely that the UCP has much foresight, but possibly they hoped a war in Iran would make oil prices rise for a while at least.
Val: See tonight’s post. Just published. DJC
Good post. Apparently tanker insurance rates went up the past three or four weeks in anticipation, so maybe the UCP was aware of the possibility of a war and able to plan for it in releasing their budget.
See at about 4:12 here:
Budget, budget
Budget break and muffle.
Once upon a time it was said that Rachel Notley’s NDP passed Progressive Conservative budgets. Some budgets later it is said Danielle Smith has produced a New Democrat budget. It’s just confusing enough to have a budget referendum.
But could it ever satisfy the federal Clarity Act? Poor, neglected thing, the Act has yet to be exercised since it was passed in 2000. Rather it was a single shot in response to the 1995 Quebec Referendum which the separatists very nearly won–a single shot the feds hope(d) would cross the bow of any future bid to secede. I don’t know if intergovernmental affairs minister Stéphane Dion had Alberta separatists in mind when the Chrétien Liberal majority passed his bill fully a quarter century ago, but I bet he never thought the Clarity Act could apply to budgets.
A budget referendum could let a government off the hook by allowing popular disapproval from outside the parliament, allowing it to dodge a vote of non-confidence from parliamentary colleagues within.
Does it ever happen that a budget topples a government? Yes, for example in 2017 when the newly-elected BC Liberal minority tabled a mini-budget with the Throne Speech, therefore a confidence vote which it lost when three Green MLAs cast with the NDP Opposition. It wasn’t a referendum-like popular vote by the electorate at large but it did count as one of those rare occasions when a governor refuses a first minister’s request to dissolve parliament and call a general election–which in this case would have sent voters back to the ballot booth in June or July after the previous visit in May. The BC Liberals were only one seat short of a majority, a close run thing; could premier Christy Clark have done better by proffering a referendum on her budgetary projection (which, btw, was conspicuously like–or maybe even lifted directly from–the NDP’s recent campaign platform)?
At centre of any government is its plan to raise and spend public money. The English Bill of Rights of 1689 established that such financing be approved by the popularly-elected Parliament, a general election often being called a ‘referendum’ on a governing party’s performance in this respect–that is, unofficially. Budgets are tabled annually, but it sometimes occurs that their adoptions should be referred to the people each year of the four-year statutory term limit (constitutionally, five years).
Certainly this is what deputy leader of the NDP Opposition Rakhi Pancholi has in mind with the UCP’s latest budget. Short of a non-confidence vote in the Assembly which would force a general election, she dares Danielle Smith to ask the governor to dissolve parliament and refer the matter to the electorate. Given a well-deserved ‘can’t-run-candy-store’ rejoinder to the UCP’s atypically generous expenditure on schools and doctors –conspicuously about equal to the projected deficit which might have been avoided had those services been properly funded and spread over the seven-year UCP regime hitherto–it’s almost a certainty that Pancholi’s “Cut the bullshit and call an election” response will remain as viable a campaign slogan as it definitely would be for a speculative budget referendum.