Surely nobody expected Finance Minister Nate Horner to stand up in the Alberta Legislature yesterday and table an NDP budget. But that’s pretty much what he did.
In the leadup to the 2026 Budget Speech, Mr. Horner made lots of noises about hard choices, tough times, and how Albertans don’t back down from challenges.
“In times like this, you tighten your belt,” said a grim-faced Mr. Horner, wearing a sombre dove-grey cowboy hat, in a two-and-a-half minute pre-budget video warning us we were going to have to get on that mean-tempered bronc and hold on for dear life! Budget Day was coming!
Come the Budget Speech yesterday, though, other than leading with that whopping $9.4-billion deficit, Mr. Horner had basically no bad news at all.
I mean that literally, as far as the speech went. Mr. Horner opened with a bleak promise of what was to come: “Let’s cut to the chase … if this budget is passed, Alberta will face a deficit of $9.4 billion this fiscal year,” he said grimly. “That’s the reality in front of us.”
“Albertans deserve to hear that first. Not last. Not softened or buried under technical language. Budget 2026 carries a substantial deficit … one that is significantly higher than projected last year. With this shift, it’s clear, this year will require tough choices. Some of them won’t be popular. But all of them will be necessary to face the challenges ahead.”
Then we waited … and waited. There never was any really bad news in the Budget Speech itself.
That’s not to say everyone will be delighted by everything in the budget. There will be plenty to complain about, including that huge property tax increase on homeowners who will blame municipalities, just as there are bound to be major disagreements about how the money is allocated.
Still, as Mr. Horner said, Alberta may be running a “considerable” deficit, “but we’re not making massive program cuts. And we’re not raising personal income taxes. …. We are choosing to protect Alberta’s long-term financial strength so the next generation will have more options to deal with their tough choices.”
There are no plans to return to balanced budgets any time soon, he conceded. No can do. Look for four consecutive deficit budgets. And this budget will break the province’s purely performative budget laws, he admitted. But you’ve got to keep the lights on and plan for population growth, right?
The “historic” increases in health care and education budgets telegraphed by Premier Danielle Smith this week are all in there – even if the government intends to spend some of that money on the wrong things, like privatized surgeries. “In Budget 2026, total health care investment is $34.4 billion,” Mr. Horner boasted. “Budget 2026 commits a record $10.8 billion in 2026-27 in education.” Why, they’re even investing in public service salaries! “Competitive wages aren’t just about labour relations. They are about service delivery!”
The budget commits $28.3 billion to capital investment, Mr. Horner said. After all, “oil prices are weak.” Projected provincial debt is $109 billion by next year and nearly $140 billion by 2029. The UCP even slipped in a sales tax – 6 per cent on car rentals, starting in January 2027. Thin edge of the wedge, anyone? Mr. Horner did say on Wednesday that five-per-cent sales tax would bring in about $6-billion, but he added that he’s not going to call for a referendum on a sales tax … “right now.”
So, who says this doesn’t sound like an NDP budget? I mean, other than the sales tax stuff, which the NDP never dared to contemplate.
Joe Ceci, the first and last NDP finance minister of Alberta, would have felt right at home giving a speech like this. Indeed, he did, on April 14, 2016.
Mr. Ceci’s budget that year had a $10.4-billion deficit, and focused on stimulating the economy in response to sinking oil prices with lots of capital projects. Predictions were that debt would reach $58 billion within three years.
Conservatives went nuts. “Irresponsible and misguided,” screeched a well-known Postmedia columnist. “These giant meteors of over-spending are hurtling towards taxpayers,” Lorne Gunter hyperventilated in the Edmonton Sun. Holy Cow! Giant meteors!
“Today, the NDP failed on all fronts,” moaned then Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean. “Over the long term that means less money for hospitals, less money for schools, for teachers and nurses, for those front-line services that Albertans hold dear.”
“The fact is, the debt will at some point get beyond the fiscal capacity of the government,” warned Ric McIver, then the leader of the Progressive Conservatives in the Legislature, un-factually as it turned out. Debt was “the monster in the room,” he said. “I think that is a disaster waiting to happen.”
Well, that was then and this is now. In defence of New Democrats of recent history, their budget included a considerable deficit (as Mr. Horner would have it) during a bust, not a boom. “Alberta has the highest oil production in history with record high royalties,” said Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi yesterday. “But the UCP has done something no Alberta government has. They’ve wasted a boom during the boom!”
That’s fair, as is the NDP’s complaint that the UCP isn’t getting its money’s worth for the vast sums it’s spending.
Postmedia will take it easier on the government now that the government’s run by the United Conservative Party, not supposedly high-risk social democrats led by Rachel Notley.
Yesterday, columnist Rick Bell fretted about sales taxes, but concluded Premier Smith would never do that. His colleague Don Braid called the budget bleak. Mr. Gunter, loyally, said, “if I’m going to have to live with a free-spending government, I’ll take the UCP over the NDP any day.” But nobody over at Postmedia is talking about monsters or interstellar collisions.
“Here in Alberta,” Mr. Horner said in his speech, “we don’t just hope for another boom.” Nope, we pray for ’em!