When the dust settles on U.S. President Donald Trump’s effort to take over Venezuela and its massive heavy oil reserves, the outcome is unlikely to be good for Alberta. This is true in both the short and longer terms.
Indeed, if things go well for the United Conservative Party’s favourite national government – that is, the anti-constitutional one on the banks of the Potomac – the result could well quickly turn out here in Wild Rose Country to be double-plus ungood!
In the meantime, while the Trump Administration, U.S. news media, Canadian politicians of all stripes, and scores of idiots on social media are all declaring MISSION ACCOMPLISHED in Venezuela, whether Mr. Trump’s special military operation has accomplished much remains far from clear.
As is well understood, Mr. Trump impulsively rushes into major projects without doing the necessary work to ensure they succeed. So while the U.S. military certainly has the capacity to overwhelm Venezuela’s armed forces, the jury remains out on whether the imperial takeover of Venezuela’s massive oil reserves that the president declared from his private club in Florida is going as smoothly as everyone seemed to think it was yesterday.
In other words, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro may have gone quietly with his Delta Force kidnappers, but that doesn’t mean his government will surrender as easily, or that other Venezuelans will knuckle under even if their government does. Students of geopolitics with long memories will recall President Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, distributed assault rifles, submachine-guns and grenades the colectivos in the barrios of Venezuela’s cities.
But beyond vague statements about more attacks and boots on the ground, Mr. Trump and his enablers seem to have paid very little attention to who will run Venezuela or its giant Orinoco tarpatch, and who will pay for this imperial resource grab.
There’s no evidence he even talked to the Houston oil executives he hopes to draft to get the oil flowing to its self-declared new owners north of the Gulf of Mexico. The investment could be risky in more ways than one. There may be less investment enthusiasm than Mr. Trump anticipates.
So this could all go swimmingly for the president, or it could turn out like the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, which as we all now understand didn’t work out very well at all considering that U.S. taxpayers spent something in the order of $3 trillion on the project and reaped only disorder in the Middle East and in the homeless encampments of their own cities.
We all laughed when Saddam Hussein, he of the still-undiscovered weapons of mass destruction, promised the Mother of All Battles if Iraq was invaded. The judgment of history, though, seems to be that in the event the remnants of his Republican Guard delivered just that. Even Alberta’s iconic balladeer Corb Lund has a song about it!
Readers will also recall that just like President Trump’s Venezuela attack, president George W. Bush’s Iraq invasion was supposed to pay for itself. “Under every plausible scenario, the negative effect will be quite small relative to the economic benefits,” said the White House economic advisor of Mr. Bush’s Iraq plan. “It’s going to make a lot of money,” promised Mr. Trump of his Venezuela SMO.
Alas, just as then-secretary of state Colin Powell’s famous 2002 Pottery Barn Rule turned out to apply to Iraq, it will likely apply in Venezuela as well. Remember, for invaders, the first day of an invasion is always the best one. Things generally go downhill after that.
Notwithstanding this, Canadian politicians enthusiastically cheered President Maduro being carted off to New York for an imperial show trial. Surely one of the stranger things said by a Canadian politician about Mr. Trump’s undeclared war on Venezuela was our prime minister’s remark, summarized by a Globe and Mail headline writer as “Carney hails ouster of Maduro in Venezuela but calls for respect for international law.”
Alas, you can have one or the other, but you can’t have both, because international law is an actual thing. Better for this kind of argument, methinks, to stick to the “rules based international order,” which apparently means Washington makes up the rules and the rest of us take the orders.
Well, one eternal truth about Canada is that even when the prime minister says something dumb, the Opposition leader can be depended upon to say something dumber. So when Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre weighed in – on social media, naturally – he soon fell to screeching, “Down with socialism. Long live freedom.”
Actually, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith showed more sense than either of them and, at least when this was written, had said nothing at all.
Perhaps she understands that, as I first pointed out here seven years ago, regime change in Venezuela isn’t likely to work out very well for Alberta.
As I wrote in February 2019, Venezuela is conveniently located just across the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico from the U.S. refineries of the Gulf Coast of Texas, where much of Alberta’s low-quality bitumen nowadays ends up. “In the simplest terms, one likely effect of this unfolding scenario would be to flood those American refineries with cheap, heavy oil from Venezuela,” I concluded. “After that, it’s just a matter of supply and demand. A big increase in supply, conveniently located for inexpensive ocean transfer, will depress the price fetched by Alberta oil, especially low-quality oilsands bitumen. Given the size of Venezuela’s reserves, the low prices could last for a very long time – possibly until the planet’s transition from a fossil fuel economy is complete.”
That opinion was ignored, then considered eccentric, but in the past few hours seems to have entered the mainstream.
“At least in the short term, the principal impact is likely to be downward pressure on the price Canada heavy crude can command in the U.S. market,” The Globe and Mail intoned Saturday. “Canadian producers with narrow margins would be most exposed. The highest risk would be that U.S. Gulf Coast refineries begin to shift to cheaper Venezuelan crude.”
The Globe added the caveat that “U.S. midwestern refineries are more integrated with Canadian pipeline supplies and have less flexible sourcing making the penetration of Venezuelan crude at scale unlikely.” That is true, for the moment.
“Venezuelan oil could put Canada out of business,” a National Post headline screeched yesterday over a plea for more bitumen pipelines to the West Coast. “Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and its oil – from the Orinoco Belt — is extra heavy crude, similar to that found in Alberta’s oilsands,” the rather calmer author of the op-ed explained.
“U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are calibrated and built to process and crack heavy crudes like those from Venezuela and Canada,” wrote University of British Columbia business lecturer Adam Pankratz. “This is why, during the current trade spat with the U.S., the one product which has always avoided tariffs — despite Trump’s threats — was Alberta oil, for the simple reason that the Gulf refineries couldn’t just switch to lighter, sweeter crudes, like U.S. shale, overnight. However, if there were another reliable source of heavy crude for U.S. refineries, then Canadian crude would not be nearly as valuable …”
And now, it would appear, there soon will be – notwithstanding the current dilapidated state of the Venezuelan oilpatch.
Well, it’s called the iron law of supply and demand for a reason. Short term or long term, the combination of more supply and less significant increases in demand isn’t going to cause the price fetched by Alberta bitumen to rise.
Add to that the facts the number of North American refineries that can process Alberta and Venezuelan heavy crude is limited, with more unlikely to come on stream soon, and that China is moving as fast as it can toward complete electrification, and that in effect puts a cap on demand.
None of this is good news for a province with a one-note economy and a government focused on ideological projects and propping up the fossil fuel industry.
Probably the best hope for Alberta is for Mr. Trump’s gunboat diplomacy to go badly.
As the saying goes, just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should. So while the US military does have an impressive capacity to take out troublesome foreigners, this doesn’t mean it will end well. This is like a baseball game where a team hits a home run with someone on second base at the bottom of the first inning, there is still a long way to go before this will be judged a success or not.
So far, despite capturing their leader, the Chavistas are in power now and still defiant in Venezuela. If the US manages to get rid of them, or get them to be less defiant, it is possible they can move to the next phase of their plan. However, getting their now decrepit oil industry up to speed will then also involve getting US oil companies to invest many billions over 5 to 10 years. For them, this will require a favourable and stable political situation as well, not just tenuous general military control.
There are a lot of ifs and buts here before oil starts flowing again from Venezuela in any significant way. So this may be something for Smith’s successor to worry more about than her. However, I’m not sure even with all these conditions met US oil companies will be keen to make such big investments now the world is going electric and renewable energy is growing and becoming cheaper and easier to produce.
Why is Donald Trump really involved with Venezuela? The reasons kept on shifting, within the last while. Ditto for Nigeria. It isn’t about any “bad guys”, or about removing a dictator from power. That is doubtful. What it’s about is easily supplied oil. If it was about dealing with dictators, why isn’t Donald Trump concerned about North Korea, or China? Danielle Smith and Pierre Poilievre have made big fools of themselves by giving praise to Donald Trump. Like she is known to do, Danielle Smith will have a childish hissy fit, and blame Mark Carney for the problems with the oil industry in Alberta. She did that with Justin Trudeau and Rachel Notley too. Yet, we had these pseudo Conservatives and Reformers in Alberta rob is out of the oil wealth Peter Lougheed intended us to have, by losing us a whopping $575 billion from horrendous oil royalty rates, and burdening is with a massive orphan well mess of around $300 billion.
With respect, I don’t draw the same comparison to the Shrub’s ill-fated Iraq war. This bears much closer resemblance to Bush Senior’s invasion of Panama in 1989, in which the US “captured” — or, more accurately, abducted — another Latin American dictator, one Manuel Noriega, over a similar pretext, alleged state-sponsored drug trafficking. It’s also not that dissimilar to the Reagan Administration’s 1983 invasion of Grenada.
The biggest differences between those earlier actions in the 1980s and this one, are (1) the size of the country invaded, and (2) Trump’s assertions about the aftermath, in which he claims that “the world’s biggest oil companies” will take over the victim nation’s oil industry for the benefit of the US. The naked self-interest of this US military action has never before been stated so starkly, at least in our lifetimes.
Jerry: There are lots of antecedents in U.S. history and especially in the pattern of behaviour in the Caribbean and Latin America. Even the takeover of Hawaii can be cited as an example. Whether or not the Iraq war is the relevant one depends on what happens next, and what after that. It is the most dire warning, though, regardless. Panama is what Mr. Trump is hoping for. DJC
It’s naked imperialism and these “business” fairy tales are just infantile. The US empire of post WW2 has been dependent upon CIA coups, US air power and corruption in the target states. US companies have done very well in the states that they have destroyed in the post-Cheney Double-Secret Energy Assessment era. They make bank in Iraq, and Libya. They are de-energizing Europe to prevent its integration with Russia outside the auspices of U.S. corporate control. China is not going to be operating its economy without hydrocarbons in any foreseeable future. They were buying 80% of Venezuelan sludge, which only accounted for 4% of their imports. What the Carny said about Venezuela was not stupid, it was vile.
There’s a bigger plan afoot, here.
While Denmark is in Trump’s plans–they’re easy to grab (unless China or Russian submarines blow them outta the water/air), the bigger picture is attacking Iran. At that point, the straits of Hormuz will be shut down and no Arab oil will be flowing to support the USA Imperialist War Machine. The petrodollar will sink like a rock.
The last time Israel/USA attacked this, within 12 days Israel was begging the USA to help them out of the war they started. This time, I suspect the USA military forces will be neck-deep in angry Bolivista revolutionaries. I also expect from reading Iranian news–they’re well past the point of believing anything the Americans or Israelis say to them and their attempt at a colour revolution isn’t going all that well as they’re still more than a little miffed at being attacked recently.
China has warned them. Russia has warned them. Iran and Saudi Arabia have warned them. Unlike Europe or Canada, these are serious people with serious weaponry.
The level of American hubris is staggering.
We’ll see, B. There’s a lot of warfog right now. Sounds to me like the Venezuelan armed forces turned off their serviceable air defence system to accommodate the American raiders. That means a deal was cut, probably to give up Mr. Maduro, and probably by people in his own party. That may be why Mr. Trump is unenthusiastic about Maria Corina Machado, or it may be because he thinks she robbed him of his Nobel Peace Prize. Whatever. Right now I’m focused on what Mr. Rubio’s new title will be. Reichsprotektor of Venezuela? Of Latin America? DJC
@DJC
I’m not even betting that Trump *has* a strategic plan at this point–other than a big Shock N Awe Reality TV Show. He certainly hasn’t outlined anything other than “hurrr durrr we takes da oil”–with no viable means to do so without massive boots on the ground, billions of dollars in investment and a horde of engineers that will take a decade to get it off the ground.
Shock and awe and destruction of the country may well be his only concrete objective aka Libya before the carpetbaggers move in and steal as much as they can before insurrectionists make it too hot for them to remain.
The armed forces didn’t need to shut off anything as the USA have the backdoor ability, as do Israel to install spyware infections of all data streams to and from any electronics that aren’t hardwired and constantly checked for infestation. So I am not quick to condemn them until I see some actual proof. The Mossad and CIA do bribe insiders for sure–but why even bother when you can track everything Maduro was doing by remotely turning on his cell phone webcam. Likely a combination.
Machado doesn’t have more than 2% or so support in Venezuela. That’s the same Juan Guido delusion the west was perpetrating. If Trump was really serious he’d install the politician who actually lost next to Maduro or run new elections and see if his puppet, wins.
This is about installing democracy as much as my air conditioner is about eating cheetos.
B: Venezuela had Russian-made BUK anti-aircraft systems. DJC
@DJC
I’m aware. However, how did the person/people who shut them off get out of the country alive because whenever they’re discovered their lives will be shorter than a roach being chased with a Raid can?
I’ve never denied the CIA pays honking bribes for infiltration. One of the reasons they need all that drug money from their trafficking operations. But you can’t spend that money if you’re dead in a purge.
There’s so much smoke and mirrors in the mainstream media who are CIA shills and corporate stooges for the most part that I’ll wait until the best of the intrepid top-tier investigative journos to do some digging and come out reports.
Also, for anybody who’s unaware, there were drones shot down last night in Caracas so this ain’t over, yet.
Two European nations (both in NATO) have nuclear weapons. Canada might not have techs, but we have serious uranium.
Carney’s remark makes no sense. Kidnapping a head of state while calling for respect for international law. As for Mr. Peepers, “Down with socialism. Long live freedom.” Are these two playing with a full bag of marbles?
@Tom,
I’m asking myself the same thing. Trump just decapitated a country’s political infrastructure.
One is saying, “YeeHAW look at dat purdy light show” while the other is saying, “I don’t like that guy but it’s against the international laws we wrote that none of have shown the slightest inclination to uphold since we wrote them.”
Clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right.
According to the newly created ‘Donroe’ Doctrine, the United States will go into any country with an internal conflict and resolve the situation in the best interests of the United States. The Alberta separatists are creating a situation where the Trump government will be able to use this doctrine to ‘run’ Alberta. We should expect a lot of lies from the separatists, but we should understand that what they are doing is creating opportunities for the current United States government to directly intervene in our internal politics.
We’ll know we’re in trouble when Trump appoints a Special Envoy to Alberta.
The bulk of Alberta bitumen exports flow to the U.S. Midwest, not the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGA).
The destinations for crude oil exports to the U.S. are grouped into 5 regions known as PADDs.
In 2023, 62% of Canadian crude oil exports to the U.S. were directed to PADD 2 (U.S. Midwest). Another 7% flowed to PADD 4 (U.S. Rocky Mountain).
PADD 3 (U.S. Gulf Coast) 19%.
Nearly 70% of our U.S. exports are likely safe from Venezuelan competition.
Even more when you consider that TMX is well-positioned to supply U.S. West Coast refineries in Washington State and California.
CER: “Market Snapshot: Almost all Canadian crude oil exports went to the United States in 2023” (2024-08-21)
https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2024/market-snapshot-almost-all-canadian-crude-oil-exports-went-to-the-united-states-in-2023.html
While Alberta producers face a loss of exports to the USGA, contracts with refineries in the U.S. Midwest are likely more secure.
The relationship between Alberta’s oilsands and U.S. Midwest refineries is forged by a network of pipelines — unlikely to change for decades.
Pipelines between the U.S. Midwest and the USGA currently transport domestic light tight oil (LTO) and Canadian crude south. While it would be possible to reverse this flow, transporting imports of Venezuelan crude north to U.S. Midwest refineries, it is doubtful whether such an arrangement would be more profitable.
“Canadian crude has become a vital feedstock for US refiners, especially as pipeline infrastructure facilitates cost-effective delivery. Significant refinery investments in processing heavy Canadian crude have further cemented this dependence, particularly in the US Midwest, where refineries are optimized for handling heavier grades.
“… Consequently, Midwest refineries lack access to the necessary infrastructure to secure alternative supplies to domestic shale and Canadian imports. US midstream infrastructure has been wholly reconfigured such that USGC refineries received 480,000 b/d of Canadian crude via the Midwest in 2024, the largest source of foreign crude, and ahead of the combined deliveries of OPEC, or Mexico to the region.
“… in the Midwest (PADD 2 and PADD 4), where Canadian crude made up 100% of the 3.2 million b/d of imports in 2024, accounting for 72% of the region’s 4.5 million b/d of refinery crude runs.
“…If tariffs were imposed on Canadian crude, Midwest refiners would struggle to adjust their supply due to infrastructure constraints, according to IEA. The transformation of US pipeline networks since the 2015 crude export authorization has significantly reduced the ability to import crude into PADD 2. “…US Midwest refineries would likely continue to maximize operations and Canadian imports, due to their infrastructure dependence and despite the incremental costs.”
“IEA: US Midwest refineries continue to benefit from Canadian crude” (Oil & Gas Journal, Feb. 14, 2025)
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/55268163/iea-us-midwest-refineries-continue-to-benefit-from-canadian-crude
Geoffrey: I am quite aware of your first point, but I am trying to write columns, not a PhD thesis. As for the rest, just because the U.S. Midwest refineries in PADD 2 continue to benefit from Canadian crude doesn’t mean the price of crude will continue to rise as Venezuelan crude comes on stream, if it comes on stream. A renewed flow of Venezuelan crude will exert downward pressure on prices, while the markets of the Far East continue to electrify. As I said in the piece, the situation for Alberta isn’t as dire as some are now saying, but it’s not going to get any better. Another matter I didn’t deal with, to keep from getting too complex is the stupid emotionalism of stock and commodity markets, now enhanced by AI and otjer robotic programs with human emotional stupidity built in. This will tend to create sudden price drops that will make planning and investment even harder. This all goes back to one key point: The conditions for private investors to build anohter pipeline to the West Coast, or any coast, will never exist. If the pipe is laid, and it probably will be, taxpayers will pay for it. This will be disguised, and the propaganda will say otherwise, by investors will never take the risk. DJC
Best, and shortest, thesis yet, and one most Albertans can decipher if they choose.
“The market is always right, even when it’s wrong.” — Somebody I used to know.
I may be mistaken but isn’t Venezuelan oil also sent to New Brunswick? So, why build a pipeline from Alberta?
YYC: According to the Wikipedia, the Irving refinery in St. John uses almost entirely Saudi crude. DJC
1) don’t presume Trump & cronies are competent to run another country; arguably they are failing with their own nation.
2) Venezuelan people being happy to see Maduro’s back does not guarantee they will not shoot American carpet baggers on sight.
3) Business men like stability so they can make money; no stability, no investment.
4) if Venezuelan crude starts going to US, less goes to China, which the Chinese will not tolerate, notwithstanding their electrification efforts.
Or the fact that Venezuela owes Billions in Loans from China that were being paid off, very slowly, by crude shipments to China.
Trump’s warhawks didn’t just move practically their entire navy just to snatch Maduro. That’s overkill, even for them.
That was just the TV spectacle aka Caesar’s triumph starring Vercingetorix warning the rest of South America and Mexico what’s coming for them. They’ll go for Cuba, maybe Chile and/or Argentina or Columbia and if they’re complete morons–Brazil–for daring to talk to BRICS. The USA thinks it will be a cakewalk but then–that’s the same underestimation they’ve always made about their opponents. That big guns ensure you a win against a hostile population. Didn’t work anywhere else but they’re so deluded they still keep trying the same tactics. Then again, it’s not about winning–it’s about selling war machines, even ones that are overpriced and useless against full-on insurgencies, for profit.
The American Empire is warning off China, although their Oiligarchs aren’t going to spend trillions of dollars getting Venezuela’s oil patches back up and running. That’s pure delusion unless they rob American taxpayers…again.
They’ll probably make a deal with China to put them on the firing line for access to oil, to build the rigs. Let’s see what they do in April.
Whatever way this plays out, they don’t care about Alberta’s oil. They care about Canadian water for their AI centres–thus Smith’s attempts to privatise it under her power. When the myriad bubbles of crypto, AI and tech collapse, so will the American Empire and they’re simply buying time before that inevitable collapse which may come as soon as 2027 and almost assuredly by 2030. The USA is broke and up to its eyeballs in debt it can never repay that the rest of the world could call in tomorrow if they want to risk global economic collapse. It’s just a matter of which major economic player gets angry enough, first.
Alberta will be tossed aside by Trump as their use as a fifth column becomes outdated. Smith will be written up in history as the Mata Hari she is and Canada will be left to deal with the fallout of her complicit greed and idiocy.
Thanks for this very good post, certainly one of the best these days, both on the geopolitical landscape and on oil matters.
Danielle Smith’s hero, Donald Trump, can be relied on to do one thing. Whatever he does, he’ll do it the same way—badly.
Sadly for Oilberduh, Smith herself seems to behave the same way as Trump. She’s never seen a bad idea she didn’t adopt as her very own. She uses her intelligence (contrary to common belief, Smith MUST be intelligent; she couldn’t do so much damage if she were truly stupid) to support her beliefs, never to question them. Smith’s idea of “long term planning” is more like wishful thinking.
That’s why I’m certain that Daneille and her gang will ignore the risk from Venezuelan oil. Competition doesn’t fit in their worldview. Venezuela currently exports 1 million barrels of oil per day, apparently to Asia. Trump can’t wave a magic wand (or an aircraft carrier) and divert all that oil immediately to Gulf Coast refineries. This will give time for Danielle & Co. to convince themselves it’ll never happen.
But—and it’s a neon-lighted, multi-storey BUT—bitumen CEOs will realize their party could end sooner than expected. If, repeat, underscore, IF, Trump can get some significant fraction of Venezuelan crude diverted to US refineries, it’ll galvanize the CEOs’ efforts to beat concessions out of Smith’s malgovernment. Royalty holidays, tax breaks; maybe even Smith’s dream pipeline (if Smith and Carney agree to pay for it!).
Expect the oilpatch CEOs to decide this is the time to get even richer—and to run off before the market for Alberta tar collapses.
Well, that didn’t take very long, after all. Danielle is demanding that her new partner in pipelines, Mr. Carney, expedite the expedited process of building her fantasy pipeline.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2026/01/05/news/albertas-danielle-smith-says-maduro-capture-outlines-urgency-west-coast-pipeline
This has all the marks of the panic reaction that saw bitumen companies’ stock prices sell off today. Disaster capitalism, UCP style.
Hmm. Too bad Danielle Smith and the UCP declared war on alternative energy development – and drove billions of dollars in investment out of the province. But ideology is far more important than common sense. Albertans can always eat coal.
BTW, notice how no one is talking about the Epstein files now. Trump regime – MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
Epstein files, and suddenly stories about the massive increase in private health insurance costs are ‘page 2’ news. The orange man gets a twofer from this, and is now threatening Greenland again.
To Carney, Trump has always been transparent, and he knew exactly what he was dealing with. To Smith, Harpo, Presto, and Jeffro he remains an idol. See you in court.
Guess whose Canadian oil company with HQ in Calgary is taking a hit on the TSE today. Looks like it’s starting to recover before closing. Buybacks to prop it up? IDK.
The late recovery in their stock may also be related to the rise in oil prices. In any event, it is still very early innings in a very long game and a lot of things have to go right for Trump and the US before oil can start flowing again from Venezuela in any meaningful quantities.
Never underestimate the Venezuelan grannies and grandpas with rifles. They don’t just have weapons, they’ve been trained to use them and await instructions. This citizen defence force isn’t limited to senior citizens, of course, but seniors have nothing to lose.
https://www.reuters.com/pictures/pictures-venezuelan-military-trains-civilians-amid-us-tensions-2025-09-22/76JNYJRDQ5LDTC4RSKTL6IHK3E/
@ABS Like every other idiotic US-backed coup, who winds up in power isn’t the problem. It’s *keeping* that power which means extensive purges, torture sites, mass graves, black bag kidnappings and country-wide insurrections of small dangerous groups since large peaceful groups can’t gain a foothold due to CIA infiltration of their leadership.
Sure, Trump will crow about the military spectacle but this is about his buddies who, if they haven’t bought up Venezuela’s national bank–will now. It’s about drowning the Venezuelans in unpayable loan debts and privatizing everything that’s not nailed down. The oil is long down the list of extractions the USA and the IMF will demand as the winning carpetbaggers.
Because you’re correct. There’s a crapton of little rebel groups that are just big enough to commit sabotage on oil rigs and keep any security forces pinned down. So it’s clear IMO, that’s not actually the end game.
Doesn’t matter who sold out Maduro in the end because whatever side anyone is on–those purges will come anyway to keep whoever is the puppet ruler with the backing of the CIA and IMF, in power. The results will be the same as they always, are.
The VP Delcy’s father was tortured and killed at a CIA black site so I don’t know where she’s going to land in this.
Thing about outrage these days is that if you don’t like the kind committed by the Orangerageous US presidunce , just wait 24 hours (not often less, but almost always not much more than 24 hours) before the next one.
tRump’s American national security rationales for violating the sovereignty of foreign nations (or allowing such violations to occur in, for example, Ukraine, when he could stop it “in one day” if he wanted to) are patently disingenuous distractions from the Epstein golem that got him by the toe, slurped to his potbelly, so far, and won’t let go.
I’m not even gonna touch the ‘two-front-war’ (Venezuela/Greenland) issue. There’s already too many such comparisons that make the architect of the Shoa look better, and that’s just gotta be unhelpful.
None of tRump’s feints help the USA’s perennial domestic problems which the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing —and even tRump’s Jan6 insurrection (for which he earned his 2nd impeachment)—amply show that “the enemy from within” is all-American terrorism continually perpetrated, now, by his own radical, MAGA far-right. Extremists are only recruited by fools like tRump, Poilievre, Smith, and Rustad who spend more futility herding red-meat to purpose than they do tempering their own, impulsive vitriol. Ironically the distractions distract this master distractor from evaluating the ramifications resulting from the only part he might control—if his compulsions could be tamed—: his own thoughtless pronouncements.
His almost off-hand threats against —for the moment, anyway—Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, all on the shores of his Gulf of America, are as predictably trite and thoughtless as ever. Never a strategist, and now neither advised by any in his cabinet of incompetents nor his Pentagon of malcontents, tRump is probably not apprised of the extent to which the rest of the world has been diligently bracing and preparing for his completely ham-handed feints toward Venezuela—“feints” because we may infer with sufficient confidence that Taco Tacoman probably won’t follow through with American boots on the ground of still-sovereign Venezuela. The braggart cannot possibly put the element of surprise into effect before he blows it.
The real surprise is that Maduro didn’t appreciate tRump’s threats or the Epstein apoplexy dominating his simplistically tactical mind, although the Venezuelan President (his replacement is officially acting on his behalf and otherwise demands his release and return) was probably correct in thinking that tRump would never invade—apparently not considering an illegal kidnapping.
Even Putin, whom tRump thought he’d neutralized by force of his claimed deal-making personality and their supposed “friendship” (which we suspect included putting NATO on the table during their secret meeting at the 2018 Helsinki summit, immediately followed by Putin backing insurgents in the Donbas, soon after by Russian troops amassing on the Ukraine border from which they invaded two years later)—yes, even Putin has joined the growing chorus of UN member states protesting tRump’s kidnapping of Maduro and his wife, and demanding an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. tRump should expect the unexpected—which of course he won’t. I mean, can’t…
I put almost zero stock in Danielle Smith’s political skills, much less her diplomacy. Thus, I wouldn’t be surprised if her uncharacteristic silence—so far’s I’m aware at this early hour—is at the direction of the PMO to keep her traitor-trap shut else its IOU for her MOU goes lol PDQ. If I’m right about her, there’ll probably be an early early-election in about—uh—28 days from now. You know, before the Texas swing segues to a more Latin beat.
Finally, is PP nervous about his pending leadership review? I’ll just let his “Down with socialism” paean answer that one (and, no, this wasn’t written by a Chey-LGBTQ-bot, either, Pierre. Viva La Revolucion!)
Remember Poilievre’s wife is from Venezuala, and her family is no supporter of Maduro or the Chavezists. Not that his whining support for agent orange wasn’t unexpected, but he has at least a reason beyond the usual sycophancy.
As for Smith’s silence, well, perhaps she has a hangover. It’s been a bad weekend for her.
I’m waiting for another dispatch from Jason Kenney down at the food court, where he mops up the tears of Venezuelans who fled socialism. Except he didn’t and they didn’t and why hasn’t he given us an update?
Any way the situation is looked at, it is a rude joke with high level drug traffickers being pardoned and with a deluded [“I watched it, literally, like I was watching a television show. And if you would have seen the speed, the violence.”] and easily manipulated reality TV ‘star’ acting as the leader of the free world.
And once again the psychological projection is shameless: “The secretary [Marco Rubio] accused Cuba of being “run by incompetent, senile men, and in some cases not seen now, but incompetent nonetheless.” It is worth noting that competence in this case simply means the following:
https://www.cubamafia.com/history-of-mafia-in-cuba.html
In any case, there is obviously much to ‘celebrate’ as General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, et al. and the American supermen embodied in Delta Force once again make the US sphere of influence safe for American consumer culture, oligarchic capitalism, and imperial power strong man gangsterism. All that is explained in simple language in the US National Security Strategy — November 2025. A long history of violence [ “We will coup whoever we want! Deal with it.” — Elon Musk] suggests that it is simply back to the future, because past behavior predicts future behavior . . .
https://jacobin.com/2025/04/central-america-us-imperialism-revolution
“The U.S. has aligned itself with some truly brutal regimes in order to promote and protect its own interests. For thousands around the world, that alliance has proven fatal.”
https://allthatsinteresting.com/us-dictator-alliances
Or, “To put it in a terminology that hearkens back to the more brutal age of ancient empires, the three grand imperatives of imperial geo-strategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming together.”
Just wondering, should the empire to the south of us cast its glance in our direction for either water or O&G reasons, with the 51st staters here in Alberta, as Quisling is somewhat out of fashion (those under 50 can look up Vidkun Quisling), what is the proper term to use for the future apparatchiki? Smithling, Rathling? Parkerling?
With Trump at the helm , by the time I type my comments they will be immaterial.
Trump has sent off a sequence of events that leaves the world brain dead and unable to function let alone react to his daily whims.
The negative side of capitalism is been rapidly exposed .
The world knows that Trump is wrong but is too afraid of confrontation.
Trumps rationale for his abduction of Maduro is flawed on many levels .
The truth of truths is that this is Trumps wag the dog moment , a moment to deflect from his Epstein problems and , why not, profit from it!
Trump alerted the big oil companies to his intentions but not Congress!
Canada and particularly Alberta is now in a quandary.
There is a possibility that the USA will have less demand for Alberta Tarsands oil.
Alberta , regardless off the situation , will be in a bind as its markets will be impacted by geo politics and reduced demand as renewable energy makes explosive expansion particularly in China ; a nation embracing the future as Canada doubles down as drawers of water and hewers of trees!!!
Back to the future Eh ?
TB
The reaction of three Canadian politicians tells exactly the real story of our current political environment. It is laughable but not funny.
Our prime minister, like you explained, does not know whether he believes in international law or his so called freedom, because what he really believes is get your tail in between your legs and stay with the boss down south.
The Opposition leader, is concerned about his wife’s place of birth and proclaims down socialism and long live freedom. He has never seen socialism, other than in his washed half brain and he does not know that freedom has nothing to do with socialism or capitalism.
Danielle Smith of course only dreams of pipelines and responds with an idiotic – SEE, this is why we need more pipelines. My goodness, the freedom fighter needs urgent psychiatric pipeline trauma treatment.
Amazing really. No wonder we are going to crap faster than the speed of light.
Like everything else that comes with Trump’s Big Brain Ideas, it’s not only half-baked, but also stoned, hammered, meat headed, and likely laced with the drug du jour. Trump is ingesting more Adderall and Aspirin than any person would be allowed, so there’s no question that his self-medicating ways will get the better of him, and his mortal coil. As for Canada, Queen Danielle appears to be drifting into panic, as events prove she’s another of Donnie’s tossed away exes. And for Skippy Pollivere, he’s becoming self-parody as he prays for a US invasion to save him from political oblivion. Isn’t Canada important enough to bomb, too?
At this point, Trump’s grand designs have hit a snag: he’s seized a whole country, but no one among his senior staff wants to get involved a become its Proconsul. Trump’s trying to build an empire to rival that nasty German one, but no one wants to help. Cuba, Greenland, and Iran are next. Maybe Brazil, but definitely Canada, are all lined up for the plucking. Doesn’t anyone want to be an emperor anymore?