Pierre Poilievre is arguably the worst federal Canadian Conservative leader since … well, only since Andrew Scheer, actually.
Still, he’s a political leader who blew a 27-point lead in public opinion polls to lose the 2025 federal elections to the Liberals, who’d been on the ropes for months.
The same night, he lost his own seat in Ontario’s Carleton riding and had to bump, as they say in a union contract, an MP with less seniority in an Alberta riding so safe it’s been electing Conservatives since actual dinosaurs wandered through its valleys. Well, almost, anyway.
He’s a lifetime professional politician and an Ottawa insider who’s basically done nothing else, and accomplished very little while doing it, throughout his adult life. He’s never held what most of us would consider a real job. If he hadn’t by happenstance been born in Calgary, he’d be the perfect example of the much talked about but seldom seen “Laurentian elite.”
He’s a profoundly negative politician, nowadays seemingly deep into the MAGA cult, or at least willing to play at it to keep his Trumpified base in Alberta and Saskatchewan sweet.
By any sensible measure, then, facing a post-election leadership review by Conservative Party of Canada delegates in convention in Calgary tomorrow, Mr. Poilievre would be looking for a new political job, and possibly a new career, by next week.
Instead, in all probability he will be endorsed for another term as leader of the Opposition party, and allowed to take another stab at becoming prime minister of Canada.
All the evidence suggests that, whatever his acknowledged talents as an energetic campaigner, Mr. Poilievre lacks what it takes to change his approach to deal with the exigencies of a changed political and economic landscape. In other words: same stuff, different era.
Will Mr. Poilievre match Stephen Harper’s 85-per-cent leadership vote after his loss in the 2004 election?
What do you want to bet he exceeds it?
The situations are not without similarities, one supposes. The Liberals lost their majority in 2004, at any rate, setting the stage for Mr. Harper’s minority victory in 2006. But Mr. Harper was a politician on the way up. Conservatives presumably can make themselves believe Mr. Poilievre, who is no Stephen Harper, can pull off the same trick.
But the Liberal leader of the time, Paul Martin, was not an inspiring leader on the rise. And Prime Minister Mark Carney, despite the screams of protest this will arouse among some Prairie Conservatives, does look to a heck of lot of Canadians like just the man for the current crisis.
What’s more, the perpetually angry Mr. Poilievre is no incrementalist like Mr. Harper. He simultaneously frightens and annoys large numbers of Canadians, even quite a few out here on the Prairies.
Like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Mr. Poilievre has a large Alberta caucus full of separatist loons. Since he aspires to lead Canada, presumably he’s not an Alberta separatist or 51st-state annexationist himself, as Ms. Smith is widely suspected of being. But like Ms. Smith, he’s going to have to tippy-toe around the separatist sympathizers in his own caucus, lest they go all Make Alberta Great Again on him.
For this reason, Calgary is probably the worst place for the Conservatives to hold their convention this year. And count on it, a lot of Canadians who are not delegates to the Calgary Conservative clambake will be watching what happens there very carefully.
There’s great danger a MAGA eruption will soon happen on the Prairies anyway. With a Calgary Herald political columnist busy pumping the tires of the Alberta separatist crowd, even Damien Kurek is on the record defending voters in his riding who want to break up our country or sell it out to the unravelling republic to the south.
“It is easier to demonize or slime them than it is to have a rational debate,” Mr. Kurek whinged to columnist Rick Bell.
Well, needs must. Mr. Kurek will probably run again in the rural riding east of Calgary if Mr. Poilievre scuttles back to the familiar embrace of the foothills of les Laurentides. But it wouldn’t be a complete shock, by the sound of The Dinger’s report, if the next Conservative MP for Battle River-Crowfoot had a foot in the door of the separatist caucus himself.
None of this, it is said here, is going to help Mr. Poilievre and his Conservatives the next time he has to face the capable Mr. Carney in an election. Mind you, that may be a while if the prime minister can persuade a couple more Conservative MPs to make the short journey across the floor of the House of Commons.
Short because Mr. Carney is really more of a progressive conservative himself than the kind of Liberal we’ve grown used to. Also short because, well, it’s actually not very far, although it might be momentarily unpleasant for an MP who can’t keep Mr. Sheer from stomping into their office.
We should never rule Mr. Poilievre out completely, of course. He is a formidable campaigner. There is a significant appetite in some parts of Canada for the MAGA meadow muffins he regularly peddles. And circumstances can change. Things may not seem too dire to take a chance on rolling the dice if, say, the current American president suddenly leaves the scene for any reason.
Still, choosing Mr. Poilievre to lead the federal Opposition party at this fraught moment in Canadian history sure seems like a political suicide pact for Conservatives.
Well, good luck to ’em!
Can we start calling PP, Harper, Manning, and Smith members of the “Foothills Freemarket Fascists”?
Or how about…
“Cretaceous Kakistocrats”?
Too intellectual?
The Triple F. I like it.
I’m very glad Pierre Poilievre never got to become our Prime Minister. What a relief!
Much like their MAGA cousins to the south the CPC has now become a leadership cult. In some ways on paper a slick experienced career politician like Poilievre is better placed to succesfully lead a political party to success than a mercurial old shuckster.
However, as good as he has become at political messaging, I get the feeling despite all his experience he really hasn’t wanted to learn or change much since he when was the whiney, often irritating Skippy. Sometimes you just can’t ever take the frat boy out of the man.
The problem with political cults is that they tend to energize the true believers while they alienate others, including those who quietly leave. So no doubt the Calgary gathering will be quite the Kool Aid fest for PP and he will get a good percentage of those there to support him.
It probably would have been better if the CPC went with a person who had solid business credentials and who did not come across as a slick and annoying career politician. However, somehow another party got this person first instead, so now the CPC is stuck with who they have. Perhaps he will pull off a great comeback after a good try last time, but somehow I doubt it.
However, that doesn’t matter in cult, you have to stick with your leader and continue to believe regardless.
One CBC panellist thought that PP would win…
…promptly followed next parliamentary session by some floor-crossers.
One can hope.
That is my belief too. In Calgary, PP can’t lose. But after it’s over some of those who were on the fence will be thinking enough is enough, and walk across the floor. If they can’t find any change in what Reform wants, they will think it might be better to be a real conservative in another party that seems to be open to supporting Canada.
@Paul
Considering Carney is a Red Tory (not my cuppa tea but here we are with a rogue Empire on our border threatening us), one can hope they see daylight.
I have other concerns because I think we’re being astro-turfed to avoid critiquing Carney while simultaneously fomenting separatist discord but I’ll wait to see if he actually coughs up some serious housing.
This is another excellent column, David, thank you for writing it.
With regards to Mr. Poilievre’s leadership review, another factor that must be considered has to be the mindset of the people left in CPC who will be passing judgement on their hapless leader. Presumably it will be the same people who chose Pierre Poilievre in the last leadership contest, in which they chose someone with their own Covid denying attitudes over someone who would appeal to moderate Conservatives like Jean Charest. As you alluded to in your column, Mark Carney does appear to be a bit of a red Tory, so if anything there are probably even fewer moderate conservatives remaining in the CPC.
I don’t agree that Pierre Poilievre is the worst leader since Andrew Scheer; I think he is worse than Mr. Scheer. While I would never consider voting for either fellow, I would much prefer a Prime Minister Andrew Scheer over PM PP.
Every time I see Poilievre, I see a yappy little dog, sitting by Harpers side. If he became PM, I believe we would be the 51st state, because he’s not strong enough to stand-up against Trump, or the Alberta separatists. If the PC’s were smart, they would turf him and bring in a strong Canadian leader who will stand up for Canada and Canadians.
Problem is, there is no PC party, just Reformers using the name ‘Conservative’ to hide behind. And Reform/Social Credit never stood up for Canada or Canadians.
The vote is rigged. The fix is in. The federal Conservative convention is being held in Calgary the same weekend as the provincial Conservative convention in Ontario. Coincidence. Nope. Who was most likely to vote against PP in a leadership review? Doug Ford’s Conservatives. They’ve been removed from the mix – leaving mainly Conservatives from western provinces to attend the Calgary get together. I mean – January in Calgary?? Only a party member from Flin Flon would get excited about that opportunity.
Why is it always those most against big government who are most determined to get a paycheque (and benefits) from said government for as long as possible? See PP, Scheer, Smith, Manning (the younger)……
Was out on a snipe hunt the other day and I swear I could hear a few ‘Laurentian elites’ rustling in the bushes. Never actually saw them, although they did make nice pencil crayons (folks of a certain age will get this).
If, hypothetically, things do not go well this weekend for PP, is Mr. Kenney desperate enough to get back on the public teat that he puts his name forth as the latest saviour for the CPC (with Mr. Kenney’s religious leanings, ‘saviour’ is used purposely)?
As I occasionally peruse the headlines of some Postmedia publications (to read the full articles tests my patience and gag reflex), with his advanced age, is the Dinger that desperate for a paycheque or supposed relevance that he needs to produce such piffle? While he has always been paid for his appeal to a certain demographic, his current output is nothing but slavish praise and sycophancy for the right.
‘MAGA meadow muffins’, that one’s a keeper.
The question would be “Is the CPC desperate enough to consider Jason Kenney as a leader”?
Jason Kenney as a candidate for the federal Conservative leader would be pure catnip for political satirists and cartoonists from coast to coast. Particularly if he ran on his record as Alberta Premier.
In fairness, Mr. Poilievre’s campaign was torpedoed by Donald Trump’s blathering about the 51st state. Up until that point he was a shoo-in because the Conservatives’ campaign to make young Trudeau look like Eddie Krueger had been successful. They weren’t prepared for Trump, and they weren’t prepared for self-defined wartime leader Carney and Elbows Up. The Liberals stirred up the dormant patriotism in Canadians and left Poilievre looking like the petulant little brat he is. Now Poilievre will probably stay on as leader because the reality is that they don’t have anybody else. But leaving aside the partisan circus, there’s an important lesson for all of us here. The Liberals tapped into a popular sentiment that was already there. They didn’t lead, they followed. Canadians’ reaction to the American threat was swift and effective. We boycotted American products and stopped going to the States. The governor of California pleaded with us to return. We put up Canadian flags in the grocery stores and little ones by Canadian products to help buyers identify them. So the lesson here is change happens when we wake up and mobilize. The American threat is ongoing, and it’s beginning to take a clearer shape. The separatists in Alberta that have infiltrated and taken over the prov8ncial government have the explicit support of the Trump administration who have made it clear that they want Alberta to become the 51st state. We are to be the American beach head. We can stop the Americans and outnumber the separatists, as the enormously successful Forever Canadian campaign has already shown. But we have to stay mobilized. The Forever Canadian campaign continues, and is about to begin a second stage. It’s all hands on deck.
@Alfredo
Excellent summary of events.
We’re being Iran-ed by the US Empire. First the CUSMA economic siege, then fomenting discontent then breakage through all means fair and foul.
This isn’t gonna end with Trump, just so y’all know. He’s just the naked face of it.
If we don’t fall to the economic threats, they’ll go full potato regardless of who sits in the white house.
Our job, should we accept this mission, is to keep carrying the Canadian torch however we can, for however long it takes the American Empire to fail entirely. We can’t beat them but we can out-wait them, push where we can and make it painful and difficult until the end comes, as it does for all Empires.
We are “The Meeting Place” in Indigenous myth where all nations can come together in peace.
It’s a dream worth pursuing.
I would call Prime Minister Carney a “blue liberal”, akin to Joe Clark being a “red tory”.
As for Skippy … what I actually call him isn’t repeatable in this forum. Will he keep his job? I suspect yes, but at 85% approval? Not sure. Lost an election, floor crossers, negative popularity vs Carney, etc.
My daughter served him coffee during his parachute landing in Wainwright. His go-fers paid. She was not impressed with his “little people don’t matter” vibe. She still voted conservative though – independent conservative that is.
The Conservative Party is one or two leadership campaigns away from electing a poo flinging chimpanzee as it’s leader.
“MAGA Meadow muffins” made me snort coffee out my nose. Well done, sir!
We live in Alberta. My spouse is a CPC supporter.
She recently read David Coletto’s column in the Toronto Star on line edition regarding the Abacus poll about CPC support in Canada.
The poll results listed three reasons why undecided and uncommitted voters will not support the CPC. This group in integral to the CPC ever achieving even a minority result in an election.
After reading the article her first comment to me was..’these are exactly the reasons why I did not vote and will never vote CPC as long as Poilievre in Leader.
If there was a different president in the United States PP *may* have slightly more then a snowballs chance in hell to save his career. The longer the Donnie sideshow goes on the more of that sand slips through his proverbial hourglass. Normal every day folks are pretty well horrified that ICE is summarily executing American citizens in the streets, and only an idiot would want that to come here, or perhaps a bigot, that wants the state to summarily execute their neighbours for not hating gay people and immigrants.
The issue with Poilievre is (to steal one from Alexander Keith’s) those who like him like him a lot. Perhaps if his leadership convention was held immediately after his embarrassing election loss there might have been more of a chance the party would have tossed him quicker than a bag of flaming dog shit. Alas time has healed some wounds and he remains very popular with a rabid base and (apparently) the party faithful so there’s very little doubt he will pass with flying colours. At this point I believe the CPC’s sole strategy is to wait it out while the public finally becomes disgruntled with a tired Liberal government and they will just be voted in by default out of sheer desire for change. Not a great strategy to those of us who don’t live in the CPC bubble but a strategy nonetheless. Unfortunately this means one day we may still end up with Prime Minister Poilievre….ugh, I think I puked in my mouth just typing that!
Gag me with a spoon, Firth! DJC
Pollievre is such a loser.
How can we call this guy a leader?
This is a guy that supported the convoy knowing very well what was behind it.
He supported Maga openly until he realized Canadians were starting to understand what really it is all about.
He went for coffee with white nationalists walked with them side by side and he is a leader?
This guy is an opportunist of the last degree and dangerous to Canada just like Danielle Smith. So why are we being ‘nice’ to them. Do we not have any sense of reality anymore?
Not a surprise when PP lost his old riding and had to come to Alberta.
Hopefully he will loose the contest at the party convention, although Id agree with D.C. regarding the outcome.
P.P. comes across as a nasty piece of business. Can’t see anything pleasant about him. P.P. does not have the skill set to deal with current state of affairs in the world today. He would be out of his league.
As a life time leftie, at this point in time I’m fine with Carney as P.M. We have a warmongering nasty piece of business to t he south of us. His position and threats to Iran are not what clear minded people say. His abuse of his country’s Constitution is disgusting and his detention of children and adult in horrible conditions ought to get him a nice trial if not within his own country at the Court of the Hague.
It strikes me PP would like to grow up and be just like his dear leader to the south of us.