Now that Premier Danielle Smith’s favourite foreign autocrat appears to be on the brink of transforming himself from a successful “peace candidate” into a war president, it would behoove folks here in Wild Rose Country to remember why American-imposed regime change in Venezuela is bad news for Alberta.
Anyone who has paid even casual attention to the political career of U.S. President Donald J. Trump is unlikely to be surprised by his sudden transformation. With his threats ignored by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his begging disregarded by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, and with his popularity plunging at home, of course Mr. Trump was going to turn to beating the crap out of a small Latin American country. This is not exactly without precedent in U.S. presidential history.
But who knows? If the Venezuelans put up a fight, it might even give Mr. Trump the excuse he needs to cancel the U.S. mid-term elections next year and make Americans feel great about not getting to see the Epstein client list!
But never mind that. What we really need to talk about right now is why this matters to Alberta.
Almost seven years ago, I warned in this space that if the wag-the-dog scheme Mr. Trump was promoting in Venezuela were to come to fruition, cheered on by then foreign affairs minister Chrystia Freeland and the rest of the Trudeau Government, the potential for the Alberta oilpatch would be dire.
The problem then appeared to be that the Americans’ favoured replacement for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the Obama lookalike Juan Guaido, had promised to end the Maduro Government’s policy of requiring the national oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, to hold a controlling stake in any joint venture with a foreign corporation.
“That would open the door to heavy U.S. corporate involvement in the vast Venezuelan oil reserves, said to be the largest in the world, and which include oilsands similar in size to Alberta’s,” I wrote. That, in turn, would end the U.S. blockade of Venezuelan oil, an ongoing part of Washington’s bipartisan campaign to topple the Maduro Government.
This was potentially a big problem for Alberta because Venezuela is conveniently located just across the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico from the U.S. refineries along the Gulf Coast of Texas, where a lot of Alberta’s low-quality bitumen ends up nowadays. The cancelled Keystone XL Pipeline project was intended to make it easier to ship even more Alberta bitumen to Texas.
In other words, regime change in Venezuela would likely result in the U.S. market, with limited capacity for refining heavy oil, being flooded with cheaper heavy oil from the Orinoco Belt.
After that, it would just be a matter of supply and demand. A big increase in supply, conveniently located for inexpensive ocean transfer, would depress the price fetched by low-quality oilsands bitumen from Alberta, which already has a relatively high breakeven cost.
“Given the size of Venezuela’s reserves, the low prices could last for a very long time – possibly until the planet’s transition from a fossil fuel economy is complete,” I wrote back then. “U.S.-owned fossil fuel companies that have resisted building refining capacity in Alberta because they don’t want to compete with underused capacity at their Gulf Coast operations will have no problem replacing their Canadian supplies with cheaper Venezuelan crude. They have no loyalty to any jurisdiction, or to any notion of ‘ethical oil,’ only to the best price and the best return on investment.”
So that was the potential situation in February 2019. What’s changed since then?
Not much. Mr. Maduro is still president of Venezuela, although he’s promised to make it easier for the U.S. to have a bigger stake in his country’s oil industry. Mr. Trump is president of the United States again and he doesn’t care about Mr. Maduro’s concession. He wants a fight to prove he’s still the boss of something. It looks very much as if he will launch attacks on Venezuela within days, if not hours.
Meanwhile, Alberta oilsands bitumen is still expensive to process and ship. U.S. heavy oil refinery capacity is still limited.
As a result, one oil market analyst wrote Friday, “These developments cast a long shadow over Canadian pipeline projects. The timing of any regime change in Venezuela could materially affect the viability of new Canadian oil infrastructure investments. Industry insiders are watching closely, mindful of the fragile balance between supply and demand.”
As an aside, I am always astounded at how difficult it is for Alberta oil industry enthusiasts to understand the iron law of supply and demand, a relatively simple concept as economic fundamentals go.
“Timing is everything,” explained reporter Al Salazar. “By the time a new pipeline comes online, will Venezuelan production have already increased? That’s a real risk for those investing billions to unlock more Canadian barrels. This uncertainty adds another layer of complexity to an already contentious debate over Canadian pipeline expansion.”
I’ll say! Pipelines nowadays are the kind of enterprise that put the mega in megaproject. Just look at the cost of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, which the Trudeau Government kindly built and gifted to Alberta and for which it was never thanked, which the last time I looked was said to be something in excess of $34 billion!
Ask yourself, how long would any new pipeline have to turn a profit to justify a return on such a massive investment?
With cheap Venezuelan heavy oil flooding the Gulf Coast refineries, China electrifying as fast as it can and helping the Third World do the same, and Mr. Trump leaning toward ending sanctions on Russia and allowing more cheap oil to pour from there into Asia, you don’t have to be a professional energy analyst to see why no private company is likely to invest in another pipeline from Alberta. The only way another pipeline from Alberta is ever going to be built is if it’s paid for by Alberta taxpayers, or Canadian taxpayers if Ms. Smith’s sly separatist threats gain any traction in Ottawa.
Our tarsands oil is not just expensive to ship, it’s expensive to extract and process. Thanks to geography, Venezuela’s is cheaper. Saudia Arabia’s still-abundant supply of sweet crude is probably the cheapest of all, ethical or not.
So Saudi Arabia will probably pump the last barrel used on earth before the oil market goes the way of the market for beaver pelts from Rupert’s Land. Higher cost producers will be priced out of the market one at a time as demand for oil declines.
Major North American oil companies have understood for a long time that, one way or another, the Venezuelan oil market was going to come back on stream. They almost certainly also understand that as a producer of relatively expensive oil, Alberta will be one of the first to be priced out of the market.
They don’t care, although they’ll be happy to take all the tax breaks Ms. Smith’s government throws at them in the meantime. Why do you think they keep shutting down their offices and laying off staff in Calgary?
Likewise, Mr. Trump doesn’t care. He says Canada doesn’t have anything he needs – and that includes Alberta oil. Sure, he’ll pose for a selfie with Ms. Smith, but I doubt he’d return a phone call from her. Chances are, replacing Alberta heavy oil with Venezuelan heavy oil is now part of his administration’s plan.
Albertans who want our oil industry to endure, let alone prosper, should pray that Mr. Trump doesn’t manage to change the government in Caracas. Otherwise, we’ll soon be left with plenty of oily sand that nobody wants. We still haven’t run out of beavers whose pelts no one wants any more either.
It is hard to say how successful Trump will be in his antagonism against Venezuela, which so far seems to have been mainly involved blowing up small non military vessels in the Caribbean.
Trump likely realizes a bigger foreign conflict could be a good distraction against his growing domestic problems. However his MAGA base still remains very wary and unenthusiastic about another unnecessary foreign war. Despite its problems Venezuela is not a tiny country like Grenada that can be easily and quickly overrun. Trump has also recently upset several nearby South American countries whose help he would need. Maybe he can count on the Argentine navy, but they are farther away and they didn’t do so well in their last war.
Even if Trump does manage to create and win a more direct conflict with Venezuela, it could take years or even decades to rebuild its oil industry. After all, it took years after the “mission was accomplished” in Iraq for the country to stabilize and start to rebuild its energy industry. Trump is nearly 80, so time is not on his side for such long term projects.
While Trump does want cheap oil for domestic reasons, he is more likely to have success by continuing to pressure the gulf states to just pump more. Ironically this is not good news for the US oil industry which generally supported Trump as well as Smith and her MAGA enthusiastic UCP. However trying to be friendly to Trump often does not turn out well when his interests are in conflict.
Regardless, Smith will likely continue to sing her need another pipeline blues. Whether Alberta remains in Canada or not, it still remains landlocked. I doubt there will be another new pipeline to the Pacific due to opposition in BC.
All of the above makes perfect sense. As oil and gas are not renewable, for a long time I have had thoughts of what would it look like when the use of oil stopped, certainly a real disaster for Alberta who relies heavily on oil and gas revenue to get somewhere close to a balanced budget, but also endures wild swings in the price and revenue from that. The lure of big oil money has politicians heads in the clouds and anticipate this will last forever. Well wake up Dingy, it’s not going to last forever and the constant push for more pipelines is a lost cause in my view. The question in all of this becomes, with all the climate change going on, how many more towns and cities are these guys willing to burn down? How much more land needs to be scorched before someone wakes up?
Totally agreed, but I would add that although wildfires have caused significant loss of property values in Canada, they have mercifully not killed many citizens (perished wildlife excepted). Other signs and symptoms of human-caused climate change, however, such as flood-producing “atmospheric rivers” (or, variously, “monsoons” or “pineapple expresses” as we used to say on the Wet Coast) and “heat domes” (or “heatwaves”) have indeed killed many citizens.
The question could easily be put: how many more humans need to die before someone wakes up?
Don’t forget the ‘drill, baby, drill[ing]’ that Trump is doing in Alaska. That said, I don’t ever expect cheap oil prices in my lifetime…investors and oil traders always find a way to keep the price up. En passant, I wonder if things might get so bad for oil producers Alberta and Saskatchewan that Premiers Smith and Moe will propose a version of the hated National Energy Program, where Canadians are forced to buy oil from the western provinces.
Moe and Smith will do anything to look good. So I would say YES they would want to force Canadians to buy our oil. Is that not freedom?
The U.S. Gulf Coast (USGA) has the highest concentration of heavy oil refineries in the world.
However, the bulk of AB oilsands exports flow to the U.S. Midwest, not the USGA.
The destinations for crude oil exports to the U.S. are grouped into 5 regions known as PADDs.
In 2023, 62% of Canadian crude oil exports to the U.S. were directed to PADD 2 (U.S. Midwest).
PADD 3 (U.S. Gulf Coast) 19%.
CER: “Market Snapshot: Almost all Canadian crude oil exports went to the United States in 2023” (2024-08-21)
https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2024/market-snapshot-almost-all-canadian-crude-oil-exports-went-to-the-united-states-in-2023.html
While Alberta producers face a loss of exports to the USGA, contracts with refineries in the U.S. Midwest are likely more secure.
The relationship between Alberta’s oilsands and U.S. Midwest refineries is forged by a network of pipelines — unlikely to change for decades.
Pipelines between the U.S. Midwest and the USGA currently transport domestic light tight oil (LTO) and Canadian crude south. It would be possible to reverse this flow, transporting imports of Venezuelan crude north to U.S. Midwest refineries, but whether this arrangement would prove more profitable is doubtful.
“Consequently, Midwest refineries lack access to the necessary infrastructure to secure alternative supplies to domestic shale and Canadian imports. US midstream infrastructure has been wholly reconfigured such that USGC refineries received 480,000 b/d of Canadian crude via the Midwest in 2024, the largest source of foreign crude, and ahead of the combined deliveries of OPEC, or Mexico to the region.”
“IEA: US Midwest refineries continue to benefit from Canadian crude”
Oil & Gas Journal, Feb. 14, 2025
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/55268163/iea-us-midwest-refineries-continue-to-benefit-from-canadian-crude
Asian nations like China, South Korea, and India also have heavy oil refineries and are building more. China is now the top destination for tanker exports of oilsands crude via TMX.
Canadian producers could divert some of their lost USGA volumes to the U.S. West Coast via TMX.
Potential loss of USGA volumes threatens the viability of a Keystone XL revival, but increases the urgency for another export pipeline to Asia.
Which some in Canada might well favour anyway to reduce our dependence on a volatile U.S. customer.
The oilsands industry is capital intensive with high upfront costs. But once those costs are paid off, oilsands mines can operate relatively cheaply for decades. Which gives the oilsands an advantage over U.S. shale oil, whose costs are rising.
While U.S. shale oil costs go up, oilsands costs are going down.
Cheaper, more profitable oilsands operations in Canada are likely to outlast U.S. shale oil.
“Oil prices are down. It means something different in Canada vs. the U.S.” (CBC, May 09, 2025)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oil-down-canada-us-1.7530208
To add to my point above:
In 2023, 62% of Canadian crude oil exports to the U.S. were directed to PADD 2 (U.S. Midwest). Another 7% flowed to PADD 4 (U.S. Rocky Mountain). Nearly 70% of our U.S. exports are likely safe from Venezuelan competition.
Even more when you consider that TMX is well-positioned to supply U.S. West Coast refineries in Washington State and California.
PADD 3 (U.S. Gulf Coast) 19%.
The real problem is that Daniellezebub has decided pipelines are her hill to die on. She is using separatist blackmail — “we’ll just have to see if Canada works” — to get more built regardless of market forces — which she and her minions argue are actually distorted anyway, in their view by federal laws to protect the environment and ensure Indigenous consent.
They claim, without evidence, that if the BC coastal tanker ban were lifted, and federal emissions regulations were abolished, and Indigenous peoples were bought off or otherwise cajoled to go along with this scheme, those market forces would magically transform this project into economic viability.
And, her separatist blackmail may actually get her what she wants, whether it be via the Carney Liberals knuckling under to it, or via Pierre Poilièvre replacing Mr Carney in the PMO after the next election.
So, expect TMX not to be the only pipeline to go on the tab of the Canadian taxpayer.
Jerry: We’re sure to hear someone say there hasn’t been a major tanker spill on the West Coast since the Exxon Valdez, so I’ll just concede the point. One will happen sooner or later if we eliminate the tanker ban while continuing on the deregulation path supported by Ms. Smith and, it would seem, Mr. Carney. Then you will see a real separatist movement with legs in Western Canada – Canada to the west of Alberta. The resulting country might look like Chile, and it might be called Ecotopia, but would probably find a way to be as well armed. On the positive side, Mr. Poilievre will likely never be prime minister and if by some fluke he is, he will spend his entire time in power desperately trying to keep Quebec in Confederation. Just blue-skying here. DJC
BC is so cosmopolitan, including Canadians from everywhere in the 2nd-largest country in the world, that “Ecotopia”—what we Left Coasters call “Cascadia”—is an interesting but very remote possibility. The substantial majority of Canadians , including the majority of Albertans—and even of Quebecois—, do not want to secede from the federation—unless, naturally, Cascadia included the entire West Coast from Alaska to Alta California, the most aspirational and remote possibility of all \;~)
Not all of BC fits this description. The northeast, the Peace River region that includes such communities as Dawson Creek, Fort Saint John, Chetwynd, and Tumbler Ridge, is as heavily invested in oil and gas — especially gas — as is the northwest Alberta region centred around Grande Prairie (where I live and work). A lot of the trucks sporting those “fornicate with Trudeau” flags and bumper stickers and window decals have BC plates.
So any putative BC separatist movement would probably face another internal one, trying to separate the province’s Peace River region from the rest of BC and join neighbouring Oilbertastan.
They’re already separated by time zones: this region of BC is in the Mountain Time Zone, and does not observe Daylight Saving Time. So in summertime they’re aligned with the rest of BC, while in wintertime they’re aligned with Alberta. And they consistently vote conservative, both provincially and federally, just as their Albertan neighbours.
Check out the price of oil: https://youtu.be/SzvSNVijzpg?si=ApdtpdObVWvKgzG4
Having lived and worked in Northern B.C. for many years I can attest to the veracity, now living in N.E. Alta., the same scenes are prevalent, and the locals live in fear.
And I’m sure I heard Trump sputtering on about entering Nigeria with guns ablazing.
YYC: Thinking strategically, that would be a bigger mistake than invading a Latin American country. As discussed in trade terms in the story, the military supply lines from the United States to Venezuela are also short and run through safe and friendly waters – indeed, the Gulf of America, ha-ha! West Africa? Not so much. Mr. Trump’s Venezuelan regime change plan will end up being a big mistake for the United States. But it’s also possible he’ll drop a couple of bombs and bug off. But remember, this is an Administration that thinks invading Mexico would be a good idea. I’m sure lots of geopolitical experts can think of a million reasons why I’m wrong, but I’ve always suspected that after a long fight that would end up with the Ejército Mexicano invading and occupying the Spanish-speaking parts of California and Texas, America’s Donbass, while the United States descends into a chaotic civil war. But I digress. Invading Nigeria could easily turn into Vietnam on steroids. DJC
Who knows what that loony old fool is thinking at any time? But yeah, maybe it’s Nigeria’s oil he cares about.
Perhaps my point could be better written: “with money flowing “. He wouldn’t need to literally invade. Rather, just buy off a few politicians and presto, the oil flows to ports and then onto the US.
Okay. Now I hear that Trump’s motivation would be attacks on Christians, nothing to do with oil.
YYC: Of course, he’s about to attack Christians in Venezuela, isn’t he? DJC
Vietnam on steroids? The US does not stand any chance in Nigeria. Believe me. They have not won a war despite all their might, since the second world war and even that one, they managed to overtake the Germans thanks to the millions of dead Russians that finally weakened the German army. In Nigeria, the families of their soldiers would be getting expedited packages with bits and pieces of their loved ones.
By the way this Nigeria new propaganda front, as far as I know, was to liberate Christians! LOL
God are we not yet tired of this incompetence?
Marlaina knows that there is no business case for another pipeline. That’s why she is obsessed with getting Alberta pensioners to pay for it with her hare-brained Alberta Pension Plan. Has she ever thanked Justin Trudeau for building the Trans Mountain Pipeline?
PS: To my knowledge, no. DJC
Article reads more like political fan fiction than serious analysis. Venezuela has supplied heavy crude to U.S. refineries for decades, so the idea that a change in Caracas would suddenly devastate Alberta’s oil industry is nonsense. Gulf Coast refiners are already diversified, Alberta’s challenges are mostly internal, and U.S. demand for heavy oil hasn’t been dictated by Venezuelan politics in years. Trump isn’t invading anyone, and even if Venezuelan exports rise, it would only restore long-standing trade flows. Alberta’s competitiveness depends on cost, efficiency, and global demand not imaginary wars or satire disguised as economics.
Well said. It makes a person wonder what Danielle Smith is doing in Saudi Arabia instead of managing her troubles here at home. Could she be helping the Saudis diversify their economy before the crash by loosening regulations for processing canola in Alberta? Is she helping them to control our water and electricity so they will have a revenue stream when we don’t. Maybe she’s asking for pointers on his to become less ethical through authoritarian control. If so, news reporters in Alberta had better learn how to fawn more effusively than they already do. Prostrate yourselves, Postmedia.
It’s going to be rough for Dear Leader once the peasants figure out what’s happening in the world instead of regurgitating the UCP/APP fairy tale. This is why the rush to empower the Alberta Sheriffs as a police force is happening while she’s away. How do you quell a problem like Albertans? Saudi Arabia can fill her in.
We can’t eat oil. We might not be able to eat at all when the cash cow goes dry. Alberta will not waltz away to the land of milk and honey. The only way to hold onto power is by crushing dissent before it becomes open rebellion. We’re in Saudi Alberta now. Hold onto your cowboy hats and hitch up your jeans. The clock is ticking.
It would be interesting if the Maduro regime can legitimize itself as a front of national resistance to Trump’s obvious and apparent moves to invade and occupy Venezuela — for their oil, of course. Iraq was such a pushover, so why not?
The problem with all these nationalist movements, that could potentially pop up all over the Americas soon, is that every one of these countries have been manipulated by the US throughout their histories. Columbia was a strong nation, until Panama and Venezuela were carved out of it because it suited the US’ America’s policies. If Trump wants war, he may have to take on the whole region. As for that Venezuelan opposition leader, who recently won the Nobel Peace Prize, she’s very MAGA. She campaigned as MAGA and she declares herself MAGA. Maduro will have considerable justification to consider her as an “enemy within”. I suspect that Venezuelan nationalists may see her as something worth getting rid of soon enough.
Meanwhile, at Mara Largo, Trump threw himself a lavish Great Gatsby themed party for his many billionaire donors. Complete with period costumes and legions of scantily clad young (of course they’re young) flappers, all were there to sing the praises of the great man. And the videos of the whole evening’s crazed escapades are going viral, in the middle of the government shutdown, no less.
This is usually how the fall begins.
Who cares ,ive been to Venezuela many times and fact is the people there are starving and being murdered by the hundreds, i work in oil all my life and even i say fuck the oilsands or industry, this monster must go now. Maduro needs to go immediately.
Is that you, Chrystia?
Why are they starving ? Are they suffering under illegal and arbitrary sanctions designed to “make the economy scream” or something ? Why would an oil man be mad at Chavismo? Oh wait…
i suggest the threats around invading venezuela and/or nigeria have little or nothing to do with u.s. access to petroleum resources but rather, distractions from the hellscape being crafted throughout the failing country. venezuela has been defined as the chief narco state, and the source of the poison drugs needed by the u.s. consumers, replacing mexico. even though according to rand paul, venezuela may provide less than 10% of supply.
nigeria has been unable to control the islamic terrorists that have been murdering Muslims and Christians for years. the evangelical types so important to the maga voting base have been ratcheting up pressure to do something about this, because of the threat the violence poses to the nuts working in nigeria to convert the population, not really the poor population itself. a serious military intervention in both countries is not in the cards, given the geopolitical realities, logistical and tactical challenges, as well as the mango morons need for a nobel peace prize.
the distractions will work, and the millions of dolts will forget about these things in time to reelect the maga types next november.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMpGdG27K9o
“Saudia Arabia’s still-abundant supply of sweet crude is probably the cheapest of all, ethical or not.”
Contrived narratives of the doublethink variety are loudly broadcast only until they are no longer useful as a tool for managing and manipulating public consciousness. And so it is with the “ethical” narrative and the current public displays of tribute to and for the resource rentiers and the owners of capital: to be compared and contrasted with the oil lobbyist politician and the most recent trip to the Middle East.
HINT: https://macleans.ca/opinion/saudi-arabia-is-buying-shares-of-albertas-oil-sands-companies-the-ethical-oil-argument-is-dead
https://www.theenergymix.com/saudi-arabia-buys-into-canadian-tar-sands-oil-sands-as-norwegian-wealth-fund-declares-blacklist/
It is also assumed that any discussion regarding the “ethics” of the ongoing global climate experiment is forbidden for oil lobbyists and their clients. Any mention associating one with the other would simply be rude and an act of gross incivility.
I think it’s pretty obvious and likely team trump is going to attempt regime change in Venezuela, sure. What I think is less likely is their success in doing so. It would appear after failure upon failure trump may* be looking for an easy victory lap, and the Florida hawks to whom he is indebted for his presidency, little Marco included have long frothed over Venezuela, sure. What I haven’t seen is any capable military analysis that seems to think it will be easy, or even possible to do. They could wreck a lot of stuff in Venezuela, but all that’s really going to do is exacerbate the flow of refugees north, as the illegal and arbitrary sanctions have done. A ground war will be quite difficult because the civilian defence force is which is surplus to the Venezuelan military, is massive, well organized, and have been mobilized for weeks now. This isn’t an insignificant force, the National Bolivarian Militia comprises 4.5 million members, and they receive weapons and tactical training from the regular military. So what could they achieve, really ? Stand off drone attacks, night raids, MAYBE. They haven’t had a lot of success with troop infiltration into Venezuela, one of the recent attempts was apprehended by a fisherman. If you don’t think they haven’t already been trying to assassinate Maduro I don’t know what to tell you, that’s largely what special operations are run for And the United States has a massive clandestine force of trigger pullers. They haven’t had much luck, I don’t see why the clown show version of the regime change show will be more successful.
The other thing here, uh Venezuela isn’t an international Pariah? The United States is, they only get to have their way by bullying weaker states. No one believes the trump accusations about Maduro being complicit in drug trafficking, in fact very little of the global drug trade goes through Venezuela at all, and synthetics, like fentanyl are basically non existent. The supposed “cartel del sols” likely does not even exist, and indeed the creation of that story goes back to the CIA, and the cover they created for the drug trafficking operations they ran in Venezuela before the Bolivarian revolution, 60 minutes even did a story on it.
Trump has already attacked Venezuela, if he invades it will end in tears, and as the previous commenter noted, not really a good situation for the oil companies if you destroy all the infrastructure.
As far as the implications for alberta, I suppose no one really knows, but I don’t recall a time when the breakout of war lead to a drop in the price of oil. I do think it’s telling the conversation we have is always about who will refine our raw product and make it valuable. Canada has never been supposed to be anything more than an resource extraction project, raw materials specifically. There’s nothing stopping us from changing that, in actuality, why must it always be so?
Bird: Perhaps they can put depilatory powder in Mr. Maduro’s shoes and make his mustaches fall out? DJC
Actually, it’s exactly the opposite. The decision to overthrow the government of Venezuela comes after Maduro had accepted to open up its oil sector to American corporations. Diplomacy worked. (Also everyone understands Guaido was a charlatan). So what happened? Marco Rubio happened, who has wanted to topple Maduro for years for purely ideological reasons. If Trump decides to go for it, and everything indicates he will, the result will be bloody chaos, not abundant, cheap high quality oil.
Alfredo chaos is always the result of war but somehow the smart people that live in the US are incapable of getting that in their brains. How many wars and chaos do we need to understand that simple truth. Obviously many many more.
Playing along with the Empire didn’t turn out well in Libya.
@Alfredo
Gunboat diplomacy, worked for sure. Maduro did agree to trade with America even though they refused to lift all the sanctions.
The problem with gunboat diplomacy (just ask the Chinese) is that what the abused country agrees to–is never the actual end for the bully. For the American government, that was the opening salvo but they will not be satisfied until their personal CEO is sitting in the captain’s chair and the Venezuelan people are sufficiently cowed to offer no resistance.
Which, if history is any indicator–is going to wind up in another and worse, Afghanistan outcome. Once the shock and awe of the bombing wears off it’s going to be another story, altogether.
You can conquer a land by force for a short period of time–holding it is an entirely different matter. No matter how strong or expensive the armaments are, a people held by force alone will find some creative ways to make that occupiers pay in money, time and lives until eventually, the conqueror has to go back home unless they send in enough settlers. America doesn’t have the numbers.
They’ll do what the Iraqis did. Blow the oil wells and every possible foreigner place of business/association until nobody will go there or do business until the Americans, leave. That is, if China and Russia don’t provide enough missiles to blow every aircraft carrier out of the sky and water, first.
America already lost the propaganda war on this one.
War tactics have moved on. Bigger and more expensive isn’t better, any more. Smarter, cheaper and sustainable is king.
B: As a wise person once said, “the first day of an invasion is always the best one.” Human nature. DJC
In BC, the price or retail fuel is up. After removing the ‘carbon tax’ of $0.17, it rose, and is above the price of fuel back when WTI was hovering near $90/barrel.
WTI is running more near $60/barrel.
Supply and demand are disconnected from retail pricing, and largely for b2b as well.
Something less-obvious is that a few of those refineries on the USGA are *not* owned by energy cartels or oil royalty families. They are owned by private agribiz royalty, who also own their own ships, and large portions of the north american rail system. And yes, they use heavy oil.
And just as they own/operate illegal proportions of Canada’s (and New Zealand’s, and Bolivia’s, and Ukraine’s, and…) farmland, they have little regard for oil regulations, or international treaties. I would expect they are even more interested in Venezuelan oil than the usual suspects pulling Marlaina’s strings.
For all the reasons you just mentioned and a lot more we have witnessed from Danielle Smith, the end of this bull is coming soon and unfortunately we again will be the lucky losers.
I know this is not appropriate but I have had enough. Danielle Smith is an idiot as was her predecessor, full of themselves, corrupt, liars and business lackeys. We will soon know the consequences of all of this circus.
Carlos: A strong gut feeling tells me that Danielle Smith is finished, and the UCP will be broken up like a cheap piece of pottery.
Too bad about Alberta’s renewable energy industry.
As long as there is cheaper oil out there, what’s in Alberta, just doesn’t stand a chance. Danielle Smith can’t blame Rachel Notley, Jagmeet Singh, Justin Trudeau, Naheed Nenshi or Mark Carney for that.
D’rumps so called wars against Venezuela and Nigeria are, how shall we say….interesting to say the least:
In May 2025 , Putin signed a Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Treaty with Maduro in Moscow , it entered into force on October 27th.
( https: //ddnews.gov.in
Putin rushes to help Maduro, sends Wagner … DD News)
In August 2021 , Nigeria and Russia signed an agreement for the Russian Armed Forces to train and supply the Nigerian armed forces.
And again with the Wagner group. ( wikipedia)
As far as Marlaina being in Saudi Arabia/ UAE , if I remember right from her last trip there, didn’t she open up an “office” there?
Maybe she’s making plans as she said “discussing energy and agriculture ” to follow in the footsteps of a certain PM , who on April 15th 2015 announced that a 50.1 % majority stake would be acquired by Global Grain Group a joint venture of Bunge Limited and the Saudis Agricultural and Livestock and Investment Co. For $250 million. ( Canadian Wheat Board- wikipedia)
Is it contract renewal time? I don’t remember seeing any timeline , unlike the 30yr FIPA agreement with China.
Or is this part of the AI plans with Kevin O’Leary , since he’s become a dual citizen –$10 million gold visa card not withstanding–
It’s hard to keep track of the cast of characters and the shenanigans, though they all seem to have a penchant for air travel.
As for d’rumps lavish extravaganza @ Mard-lego, of course it’s over the top, South Coreddd gave him a crown….and as usual he didn’t hear the part about a replica,
” it’s shiny and gold “,
Now he’s stuck with his peasants that don’t appreciate all the hard work he does for them. Sigh! Sad!!
Hello DJC and fellow commenters,
Well, as you know, one of the “6 flags over Texas” was Mexico. We lived there in Texas for several years. As I understand it, Mexico allowed settlers from the U S to live in part of what is now Texas. The ungrateful Americans later revolted and then negotiated with the U S to become part of the U S, partly in return for U S military protection. So, maybe Mexico could reclaim what is rightfully theirs by annexing Texas.
Hey don’t forget Arizona, New Mexico and California!
Dixie Dani, like her cohort to the south, has all the realpolitik understanding of a stranded walrus.
If she had half a brain she wouldn’t be asking for a pipeline, she’d be demanding a refinery or two for the oil already pumping, not a pipeline. But she’s not going to do that because she’s an American sockpuppet and wants America to maintain control over the oil industry. A refinery would mean Canada/Alberta would have control over an actual usable oil product/s.
There’s oil everywhere. Russia has it. Venezuela has it. Saudi Arabia has it. Half the middle east countries have it. Even besieged Palestine has it. The smart countries nationalize it for their own wealth and usage. The stupid ones sell it off and let the PetroOligarchs eat up their national resources then pay a pittance for it.
In case she hasn’t gotten the International Memo ™ yet, or in her case, she couldn’t be bothered to read it because she’s too busy tantrumming as if she’s the centre of the planet’s attention–the world is changing. Xi threw a leash on Trump that’s not going away any time soon. (Frankly, I think that’s a good thing but that’s a debate for another day)
We are a mid-sized country playing in a large schoolyard with the big kids, now. What we don’t need right now when there’s so much change happening while the multi-polar world births…is a near-sighted scurrilous midwit at the helm of an important energy supply.