Danielle Smith doesn’t need a pipeline to Prince Rupert, she just needs Mark Carney to promise she can have one, with sketchy details to follow.
Then, just like that, Alberta’s premier could call an early election and get her United Conservative Party re-elected based in her success pushing Canada’s new Liberal prime minister around with her sly threats of sovereignty association.
As an added bonus, that would give her a way to defuse the embarrassing grassroots recall campaign that’s been making some of her UCP MLAs so nervous.
Love that scenario or hate it, dear readers, you have to admit it’s a possibility.
Premier Smith and Prime Minister Carney will make their “grand bargain” official today. Chances are there will be smiles and handshakes all round, and not a lot of details in the memorandum of understanding they sign about how this is all supposed to work.
Lots of people won’t like it.
The UCP wing of the Alberta separatist movement will hate it. They’re already sore at the premier for ensuring none of them get to talk about a glorious Alberta republic at the party’s annual general meeting, which starts tomorrow at Edmonton’s EXPO Centre convention hall across the street from the crumbling Northlands Coliseum, home to the Oilers in the days they were champions.
Like the rest of us, the bad-tempered federal Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, hasn’t even seen it yet, but he’s already calling it “a meaningless so-called memorandum of understanding.”
Mr. Carney “will sign on to a public relations stunt while planning to hide behind the premier of B.C.,” Mr. Poilievre told Calgary Sun columnist Rick Bell, who is now playing an unfamiliar role as a medium for a snarky attack on Ms. Smith.
British Columbia Premier David Eby is furious. He feels – accurately enough, by the sound of it – like he’s been sidelined. “Just the idea that Carney and Smith have been talking about a pipeline was enough to set Eby off,” wrote columnist Les Leyne yesterday in the Victoria Times Colonist.
“I underlined for the prime minister how unacceptable it was to me to have Saskatchewan and Alberta speaking about matters in B.C. without B.C. at the table,” Mr. Eby said. “This is not something that would happen in Quebec. I don’t know why the thought was that it would be OK for it to happen in B.C.”
Team Canada? Forget about it, Mr. Leyne suggested. The coming pipeline announcement is likely to fracture that noble idea once and for all.
Voters in coastal British Columbia will not be happy either. There are 20 Liberals from British Columbia in the House of Commons. If the Alberta deal goes ahead as predicted, there will be about five after the next federal election, retired Mount Royal University political scientist Keith Brownsey predicted yesterday.
So that’s probably good news at least for the federal New Democratic Party, which did so badly in the April 28 federal election that it elected only seven MPs and lost party status. So Mr. Carney may just have created the conditions for the revival of the federal NDP, Dr. Brownsey suggested. Voters may throw in some more Greens, too.
This may even prompt a B.C. separatist party to start organizing on the theory that leaving Canada is the only way to prevent a bitumen pipeline from being built to the North Coast. Presumably this is not what Mr. Carney had in mind when he talked about nation building.
It certainly explains why some of Mr. Carney’s B.C. Liberal MPs are said to be “seething” at their leader.
Yeah, yeah. I know there’s an Angus Reid poll that says British Columbians now love pipelines too. It depends where they live and it’s unlikely they live where the Liberals have seats. Mr. Eby has pollsters too, and it sure doesn’t sound as if they’re telling him the same thing.
Heaven only knows what the weirdly passive Alberta NDP will do, if anything. I wouldn’t put it past them to have nothing bad to say about the deal, or the lack of details. We’ll wait for their three-sentence press release tomorrow, I guess.
Voters in Alberta and Saskatchewan, meanwhile, are likely to continue to be allergic to voting Liberal, although a pipeline deal may briefly reduce local sales of black F Carney flags somewhat.
It’s hard to say what voters in Quebec will see in this, but they have to know that the pipe to Prince Rupert won’t be the UCP’s last territorial demand in Canada. Well, they may get a chance to vote on sovereignty again soon too.
The Asian market for diluted bitumen from Alberta, of course, remains highly suspect. If the pipeline gets built, this is why taxpayers are going to have to pay for it.
Hold onto your hats and fasten your seatbelts. These are going to be interesting times. The grand pipeline bargain is just the start.
I would not be surprised if this pipeline proposal turns out to be a big nothing burger in the end.
From what I have heard so far it comes with a number of conditions that although not impossible would be very hard to meet. One importantly seems to be approval by the BC government. Clearly the PM has got tired of the build a pipeline crowd constantly whining at him and so will now direct them to go Victoria instead.
Perhaps the BC NDP actually will give into all the pressure that will now be mostly directed at them, but somehow I doubt it. So the most likely way it could happen is if the BC government changes. Well it does have an even slimmer majority than the UCP, but sadly for pipeline proponents there is no growing recall campaign there.
I hate to say PP has a point, but everyone should probably stop hyperventilating until there is an actual project with a real chance of happening. Those against it will look silly if they start to soon to demonstrate against a hypothetical pipeline, much like Smith did in her support for the same.
Likewise, until pipe is laid, most BC voters will not care much and so the Liberals will not be punished there. Perhaps Smith will get some boost in support from this and she desperately needs something she can spin as good news, but given the political hole she has dug it may not be enough to win a snap election.
Marlaina needs this pipeline to secure her cushy, lucrative board positions at fossil fuel companies. She could not care less about Albertans.
The last paragraph says it all. Alberta 54-40 or fight is on again.
So Carny signs the deal. Ms. Smith calls an election. She loses. The MOU disappears into the whatever forever hopefully. I’m feeling very positive today!
You have made an interesting speculation, David. While it is not hard to imagine Danielle Smith implementing such a strategy, I do wonder if it would be as successful as Ms. Smith thinks it is.
‘See, I bullied the federal government into allowing a pipeline’ may seem like a winning strategy to Maple MAGAs, but you do have to wonder how much it would resonate with severely normal Albertans, the people who the UCP have to convince to vote UCP as opposed to the ones who reflexively vote Conservative anyway.
I think there must be a lot of people out there who are really tired of Ms. Smith’s singular focus on the oil industry and her fights with Ottawa, often at the expense of health care, education and just good governing. To those people campaigning on having successfully gotten a pipeline allowed could be a reason to vote against the government, not for it.
Pragmatic centrists come through in the clutch again. Income inequality, climate change, the end of industrial capitalism, housing exploitation. The Carny and Marlaina really have tackled the issues most pressing in the lives of Albertans. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-fny99f8amM
Here’s Nenshi from two weeks ago. Pretty much the same wording as Peter Guthrie. And Jason Kenney for that matter.
“Let’s get to the basics of this, which is having that memorandum is a good thing. Figuring out how we’re going to work together is a good thing, but there are no pipeline projects. That’s the critical thing to understand. We need more pipelines. I know how to get pipelines built. The New Democrats know how to get pipelines built. But what we have from these folks, from the premier in particular, is a pipe dream, not a pipeline.
The process that she’s put in place, make an announcement without a proponent, without a route, without any investment, without the approval of communities or Indigenous people along the line, without giving a heads up to the prime minister or the premier of British Columbia that you’re going to do that, is a recipe for failure. Albertans can ask themselves: is it because she doesn’t know what she’s doing, or the government doesn’t know what they’re doing, or is it because they actually don’t want a pipeline? Because they do better when they lose, and they make people really angry. I don’t know what the answer is. What I do know is we need a pipeline, and the government of Alberta’s approach isn’t doing much to get us one.
There are other projects that need to be in place. We’ve heard some really good work from Enbridge, some really positive things about increasing capacity on their main line. We’ve heard great things from Trans Mountain about what they can do to increase the capacity of the Trans Mountain expansion. These are all really good things. Ultimately we need to be able to roll up our sleeves and do the work, and sometimes that happens outside of the public eye.” https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/alberta-primetime/article/alberta-ndp-leader-on-pipelines-elections-and-an-eventful-fall-sitting/
The UCP convention will gather the usual bubble-wrapped crowd harrumphing about family, faith and freedom. Sodom and Gomorrah is a long drive from Enchant. Guess I’ll go out to the Expo Centre on Saturday, see what’s going on. Wear my red coat. Not to be confused with the Red Ensign.
I’m mildly more interested by the federal NDP leadership campaign. Wonder how Heather McPherson will thread the needle of ‘responsible’ resource development and spin nation-building to two west coast candidates, a green Quaker and a unionist.
Emily: Maybe not as long a drive as you think. Remember that Sodom and Gomorrah were tarsands cities. Genesis 14:10: “And the vale of Siddim was full of slimepits; and the kings of Sodom and Gomorrah fled, and fell there; and they that remained fled to the mountain.” Slimepits nowadays usually being translated as tarpits. DJC
It will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the current federal NDP leadership race. Having “pipelines to tidewater” constantly in the news should remind party members in BC of Heather McPherson’s record on the Transmountain expansion (plus her Enbridge hubby) and that won’t help her here.
Why in hell build to the west? TMX is not even full yet. Carney wants national energy security. So build east, Alberta to Ontario, running entirely through Canada. That replaces Enbridge line 5, eliminates the American’s jurisdiction over part of the line and ongoing court case to shut it down!
Get approval from Quebec and New Brunswick, and then you can replace Saudi oil import to the maritimes and gain a new export market. All without skirting around a tanker ban to boot.
Can’t remember where I saw it but it’s nigh impossible to do.
The video had experts who costed such a project and it cost more to build than Canada’s GDP for something like, 100? years, no oil company would fund it, it would take several decades to finish and by then, there won’t be demand as getting oil elsewhere would be cheaper and faster. There’s a doc on it somewhere if anyone cares to look.
With you on the first part tho…Dani’s first pipeline isn’t full and she’s screaming for another.
Toddlers, what can you do with them?
B: A knowledgeable acquaintance of mine has estimated the true cost of a pipeline to Prince Rupert at $400 billion. DJC
Thank you for this David. Great analysis. I am the farthest thing from an energy insider, so I welcome corrections to my math inspired guesses below, but seriously, what are the economics of a new, and very hypothetical, pipleline to northern BC.
What do we imagine, in our wildest dreams, that a barrel of dilbit fetches in Shanghai? Maybe $50 US per barrel? But that (possibly imaginary) Shanghai price would be after shipping costs.
So our very hypothetical shipper will, apparently, want to pay to build a dilbit pipeline to Prince Rupert, and then pay to send dilbit by tanker to China? We know that the market (quite reasonably) is not currently interested. Transmountain tariffs are apparently over $11 per barrel, and tanker shipping to China from Vancouver ranges from $1 to $6 per barrel. So shipping dilbit to China from Alberta via Transmountain would generate a current price at Hardisty of about $$33 to $38 per barrel. Presumably no one in the oil sands is very enthusiatic about that price.
So, let’s assume that there is no private sector investor: the only proponents for a $30 billion+ pipeline are federal and provincial governments and their captive pension funds. And since it would only be attractive to shippers if the tariff was less that Transmountain, there would need to be a subisdy, in perpetuity, for shipping costs.
Why, environmental issues completely aside, would any rational Canadian even consider this?
I am okay with the Alberta NDP being weirdly passive on the fantasy pipeline. So long as they fight like hell against the queue jumping Bill 11 and other UCP threats to the rights of Albertans.
From my understanding and reading, there is no private interests promoting such an idea.In this day and age, it is a prehistoric idea . The coastline of BC should be protected.
And taxpayers have already paid for a pipeline.
Enough is enough.
What do you get when a corporate captured political class has a vested self interest in misleading a confused citizenry that is itself perpetually easily misled (multiple historical examples exist)? Answer: Further government/public subsidies to and for both a highly profitable legacy industry and its shareholders. Noting that,
“Internal documents show the fossil fuel industry was aware of the risks of carbon dioxide emissions from at least the 1950s and 1970s, with companies like Exxon creating remarkably accurate climate models as early as the late 1970s. Despite this knowledge, some companies promoted doubt about climate science and continued to downplay the link between fossil fuels and global warming.” It is a representative example of the fallacy of the profit maximizing “responsible corporate citizen”. Further,
1. “There is no such thing as decarbonized oil and gas. Oil contains carbon. It is high school chemistry. And they emit carbon dioxide when they’re used,” Donner told the Star. ”
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/government-adviser-slams-mark-carney-for-promoting-decarbonized-oil-pipelines.html
2. ” . . . hundreds of experts have been warning the federal government for years that carbon capture projects routinely fail to reach their stated capture targets and the technology remains largely ineffective.”
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2025/11/25/analysis/pathways-alliance-carbon-capture-project-carney
3. “Large-scale public investment in CCS is misguided. The technology has struggled to achieve meaningful emissions reductions or prove its long-term viability. The lack of demonstrated success and heightened financial risks indicate public investments are unlikely to yield the desired environmental or economic benefits.”
https://ieefa.org/resources/financial-risks-carbon-capture-and-storage-canada-concerns-about-pathways-project-and
4. “After three decades and billions in subsidies, carbon capture has produced little more than enhanced oil recovery revenues and high-profile failures. Projects like Boundary Dam and Petra Nova illustrate the problem: large losses for taxpayers, modest returns for operators, and dependence on oil prices and subsidies.”
https://drjennifericonsidine.substack.com/p/carbon-capture-high-costs-low-returns
Well, MOU’s are mutual statements of intent and not binding, unlike legal contracts. I detect Mark Carney using Jedi spells on the weak brained Premier Ditzy. 60/40 chance this will be Ditzy’s big beautiful pipe dream. Carney isn’t going to dump all those BC MP’s overboard for a pipelines that gets him less than nothing. He knows oil is in decline; Carney is quite aware of its long term prospects.
This is the end of Maga Carney for me. I was already disappointed and I know now what this guy is all about. I hope that we have a vote of confidence soon because this guy needs to go back to banking.
Thank you for making sure Alberta gets UCP for another 4 years, a gone health care, a gone decent public education and more to come.
Talk about frustration.
She can’t sell the oil she’s got…does she understand anything about supply and demand? There’s no demand. Who is buying all this low-grade oil? There’s no oil refineries to process it and I’m dammed sure the Canadian taxpayers do not want to pay for her pipeline nor any refineries.
So what IS Mark Carney playing at? Is it worth upsetting BC over it? Is the entire thing a puppet show? (Pretend to be upset, Dan. We’re not giving that oil-cow a thing, I just need her to shut up for a month). To what end would Carney save Dani’s bacon? Is she preferred over the NDP since they might balk at some of his anti-green projects?
I’m confused.
It feels like there’s something brewing under the surface…but what?
“If there’s no private proponents there will be no pipeline”…what does Carney mean by “proponents”?
For once, I think PP may have something right.
Proponents are private sector backers willing to finance the pipeline. So far that is nobody willing to flash their capital as they see no return, only losses. Hence it remains Premier Ditzy’s pipe dream.
Good luck with this, and on different fronts. First, oil prices are so low, that the cost of this pipeline will have to be paid for by someone, because it won’t be viable. There were projects that cost a fortune, such as the Northwest Upgrader, which finally sank the Alberta PCs in 2015. What did that cost? $35 billion in total. The UCP were stuck with it, and sank more money into it, and Danielle Smith even wanted to give it away. It isn’t viable, because of extremely low oil prices. The UCP also made a foolish gamble on a US election, and flushed $7.5 billion on a pipeline. There is also the environment issue of a potential oil spill. How will that be dealt with? David Eby and First Nations communities in British Columbia have a right to be concerned about this. Danielle Smith can’t boast about anything yet.
I wonder if Smith dressed in Liberal red on purpose for the grip-and-grin photo. That should make her base see red, literally and metaphorically. Nenshi applauded the pipeline pie-in-the-sky today. He’s smart enough to know that Carney did this just to shut Marlaina up, so he’s applauding the pipeline that will never happen so that he can try to win votes. Look, you guys are tired of the scandals and autocracy and all the other shite Smith has caused! Well, vote for us and we’ll give you the pipeline without the dictatorship and the notwithstanding clause and all the other garbage. Had Nenshi denounced the pipeline, it would have been a fatal political move. I find it hard to believe that the teachers, the doctors, the disabled and all the other Albertans Smith has shat on will forget her horrific record and vote her back in on the basis of a pipe dream. However, it’s probably all moot anyway because the Haisla Nation announced today that they met with Smith and basically told her to her face: What part of ‘no oil tankers’ do you not understand?
The problem with the NDP is that they can’t read the room.
Mamdami won in NY. He’s barely a socialist, he’s American socialist-lite but the continent has been drifting away from neo-liberalism for some time which is how Chump squeaked into office.
Wanna beat Dani? Simple. Call her out loudly and often for her gutting of health services, her threat to pensions, her union busting, sitting in the pockets of the Oil Industry and her constant disregard of the needs of the provinces’ workers and whatever is left of the middle class.
They’re sitting on a wealthy province that has more to offer than an oil slick and what is she doing with it? Gutting the place before she goes back to working for the Oil Barons.
Offer to box Carney for some major projects.
That is the tack to take. Not sitting in the corner in their prettiest dress hoping the liberals ask them to dance.
Nenshi commented in favour of the MOU.
It sounds more detailed than you might expect, but the details are not good. Letting Alberta alone off on clean electricity rules? Bad, bad, bad.
It’s bad enough that Guilbeault has resigned from Cabinet, which I think is a shame, though Smith is probably gloating.
>Heaven only knows what the weirdly passive Alberta NDP will do, if anything.
Nenshi thinks it’s a great idea. (Where’s your eye roll emoji?)
I truly hope P.M. Carney is just stringing Premier Smith along. She has had her moment in her new red suit, enough for the next election.
They want a pipeline built from Alberta, through B.C. to our coast with our tax dollars. Guess I’d better purchase my outfit for protesting out in the middle of no where. Spending all that tax money to keep smith happy. I don’t care about her and the oil companies. The money which would be spent on an oil pipeline is money which should be spent on water lines, i.e. providing clean water to Reservations, which after all these years of promises the federal government still hasn’t delivered on. Alberta will be fine without another pipe line. Indigenous People are not going to be fine without water pipe lines so they can have clean drinking water.
Smith and hers must be out of their minds, digging up oil to send to other countries so climate change becomes even worse than it is. Next time there is a large forest fire give Ms. Smith a shovel and tell her to go to work. The rest of us do not have to put up with having our air polluted, our forests and homes burnt, oil spills destroying marine life just so Ms. Smith can prance around making announcements.
Perhaps some have forgotten what things looked like with the Exon Valdes spilled its oil.