The plan to resurrect the Progressive Conservative Party by former UCP MLAs Peter Guthrie and Scott Sinclair has the potential to have a dramatic impact on Alberta politics.
The key word in the previous sentence, though, is “potential.”
Some Albertans, deeply troubled by the extremist and separatist policies pursued by the United Conservative Party Government led by Premier Danielle Smith, greeted the announcement Thursday by Mr. Guthrie and Mr. Scott with enthusiasm and relief.
“A PC Party is exactly what Alberta needs,” wrote Deirdre Mitchell-MacLean on her always thoughtful Women of AB Poli Substack the same day. “I wouldn’t even try to pretend I’m not ridiculously excited about the potential resurgence of a progressive conservative party in Alberta.”
A revived PC party, she argued, would have the ability to reach conservative voters in ways the NDP never could.
This could very well be true, of course, if the two Independent MLAs’ aspirations can be realized. That will not necessarily be easy to do, however.
Nevertheless, while Premier Danielle Smith tried to play it cool when asked about it at a news conference, the UCP is obviously worried. Their most simpatico Postmedia commentator, the Calgary Sun’s Rick Bell, quickly pumped out a column warning that the return of the PCs could hand an election victory to the NDP – quelle horreur!
“Nenshi sees two former UCP politicians wanting to exhume the PC corpse as ‘a clear sign’ Albertans are unhappy with Smith,” Mr. Bell grumbled in his July 3 column. “Of course, Nenshi can count. He can see if some of Smith’s UCP vote ever went to a PC party it would be his dream come true. There would be better odds of Nenshi becoming Alberta’s next premier.”
At the moment, there are too many unknowns for me to venture too strong an opinion about how significant this may turn out to be.
So let’s talk about what we know, and what we don’t, about a PC revival, and what it might mean:
What we know
We know that Danielle Smith and the UCP are starting to worry a lot of Alberta Conservatives with their openly separatist agenda, and to frighten quite a few.
It’s all very well for Alberta premiers to pick jurisdictional fights with Ottawa and other provinces. It’s the way politics has been practiced in this province for generations, including while the NDP was in power.
We also know from polling that separatist sentiment in Alberta is almost totally concentrated among supporters of the UCP while NDP voters almost entirely support remaining in Confederation.
But the number voters in the UCP universe who range from uncomfortable with separatism to openly hostile to the idea is very significant. Like the proverbial iceberg, it’s much bigger than the portion that is visible right now.
So the first conclusion we can safely make is that there are a lot of Conservative voters who would seriously consider voting for a revived federalist Alberta Progressive Conservative Party if it had a realistic chance of getting rid of Ms. Smith and the UCP.
We also know that a lot of the very high percentage of NDP members who signed up to vote for the leadership Naheed Nenshi in June 2024 did not remain members when it was time to renew their memberships.
This is quite normal after an Alberta-style public leadership race. But many of them, and many traditional NDP voters from the time before Mr. Nenshi appeared in the scene, have grown disillusioned with his passive leadership style over the past year.
While lots of these voters will never vote for a party with the word Conservative in its name, it’s said here that a significant number would.
This would be especially true if a case could be made it would be the only way to get rid of Ms. Smith and her MAGA UCP, who in light of what is taking place before our eyes in the United States, are now perceived by many Albertans as a clear and present danger.
The recent Canadian federal election is an example of what could happen if large numbers of Alberta New Democrats decided to hold their noses and vote PC to stop a UCP re-election, just as many federal NDP voters held their noses and voted for Mark Carney’s Liberals to block Pierre Poilievre from office.
We also know there is a considerable nostalgia nowadays in Alberta for the PC era – warts and all.
Who hasn’t heard a progressive friend or neighbour say they never supported PC policy, but at least the PCs mostly weren’t crazy? Even premier Jason Kenney, who arguably in his arrogance started the ball rolling on this separatist nonsense, doesn’t look as bad has he once did to a lot of progressive Albertans.
For these reasons, there is a considerable pool of voters who could be persuaded to support a renewed Progressive Conservative Party.
My conclusion, based on what we know, is that if the planets lined up the right way for Mr. Guthrie and Mr. Sinclair, their aspirational party could be a threat to both the UCP and the NDP.
What we don’t know
The first thing that we don’t know is if the nascent PC Party, whether or not it ends up being able to call itself Progressive Conservative on a legal Alberta ballot, has any potential for growth inside the Legislature.
I’m not talking about the potential for attracting voters if voters could be made to believe it has a chance to form a government or even opposition.
Mr. Guthrie, the MLA for Airdrie-Cochrane and a former minister in Ms. Smith’s cabinet, and Mr. Sinclair, the MLA for Lesser Slave Lake, are both well spoken, small-c conservatives who appear sincere in their public commitment to Canadian Confederation and honourable in their intentions.
Both took a principled stand against policies of Ms. Smith’s government and were tossed out of caucus for it – a fate that usually results in a political death sentence.
But are they good enough organizers to attract even one or two MLAs now in the House? There must be three for them to achieve party status under the present rules, and they would need more to ensure the UCP didn’t try to change the rules.
Mr. Guthrie has said he believes about a third of the UCP Caucus are committed separatists. So are any of the other two thirds brave enough to cross the floor and join them? That would be a significant development. At the moment, it is another unknown. Count on it, though, the UCP will do whatever it can to prevent a defection.
Are they good enough organizers to attract a minimum of 45 volunteers willing to be nominated to run, or to get the 8,819 verified signatures they’d need by late November? Those would be other ways to get official party status.
They told the CBC Saturday they’ve already started to work on that. But they offered few actual details of what they’re doing other than holding a “relaunch” of the party in Calgary.
Could they cobble together a sufficient party organization to vet candidates and set up constituency associations – especially if the UCP decided to call an early election to nip their rebellion in the bud? That would be a high bar to overcome.
Face it, if only the two of them run in the next general election as “Progressive Conservatives,” with or without that affiliation on the ballot beside their names, little is likely to come of their effort.
Would Mr. Guthrie or Mr. Sinclair be willing to settle for slightly more moderate rhetoric from Ms. Smith and the UCP, and a welcome back to the bosom of the governing party? Unknown. But if I were a betting man, I’d say it’s possible.
And how will the bagmen who help finance the Conservative movement, direct its allied think tanks, and motivate the party’s many friends in media react? What about individual donors? Without funds – like the Wildrose Party got from small oil and gas companies in its formative years – a new PC Party will not prosper.
Without political oxygen – like that now being supplied to Alberta’s separatist fringe by mainstream media, including the CBC – the PC revival is also likely to quickly peter out. Right now the two are getting lots of attention – will that last?
And what will the Alberta wing of the federal Conservative Party do? It is the creation of a reverse hostile takeover of the federal Progressive Conservatives by Preston Manning’s Reform Party in 2003.
The ranks of the Alberta Caucus of the Conservative Party of Canada include MAGA MPs cut from the same cloth as Ms. Smith’s most radical MLAs. And the Conservative plan to govern Canada depends on a happy and united Alberta Caucus and a supportive provincial government in this province.
It’s hard to believe the federal party would be favourable to the creation of a new, more progressive, conservative political entity that didn’t always toe the federal Conservative line – just as the Alberta PCs of yore didn’t always salute when their federal brethren run a stupid idea up the flagpole.
Likewise, how many of the professional political operatives who work with the federal party would offer their undeniable talents to the Guthrie-Sinclair PCs in an election? Not many, it’s said here, without a nod from the federal party.
Face it, it’s easier to get a big news hit on a slow summer day than it is to create a political party with the chops to win an election.
So my conclusion based on what we don’t know is that Mr. Sinclair and Mr. Guthrie will have to climb a very steep hill to spin their twosome into a viable party. I doubt it can be done in what’s left of the current election cycle. I’m not sure it can be done at all.
Conclusion
Don’t bet the farm on the PCs 2.0 saving Alberta from either the UCP or the NDP, or both.
This could turn out to be a big deal. It could turn out to be nothing. My money’s on “not much.”
The odds are that the next Alberta election will be a two-horse race between the separatist UCP and the federalist NDP. Change my mind!
The pendulum has swung pretty far especially on the right, so I would not be surprised if it swings back some. So it is possible there will be some revival for the PC’s in Alberta, but how much this happens remains to be seen.
The UCP remains the government and although controversial Smith still remains fairly popular with conservative voters. As long as most UCP MLAs remain confident they will be reelected, I doubt they will be too interested in a new/old party instead.
However, the greater danger for the UCP now is not that the PC’s may overtake or replace them, but that they could take enough support away from them to cause them to lose the next election.
I sort of feel the PC revival is a bit like the much hyped Alberta Party which turned into something like the PC’s, but never really caught on. Its not like Alberta conservatives haven’t already been offered more moderate choices and rejected them
However, unlike the past there does seem to be some uncomfortableness and real discontent now by more moderate conservatives about how cozy Smith has become with separatists and the right wing fringe. Also, Smith does not seem like the type to change her political direction or style on this easily.
I do feel it is too soon to tell how this will all play out. It is possible this will be a flash in the pan or like Wildrose, this could be the start of something bigger. They only need to attract a couple more disgruntled MLAs to become a legitimate third party and it seems that even in the UCP there are more federalists than separatists.
Anything that throws a top dead centre at the “Dani” party is my friend!
So…
The UCP supporters are now split into *three* camps. Smith’s UCP camp, Tory camp and Repugnant Camp.
This doesn’t bode well for Smith. Just hoping here that the investigations about her corruption continue when she gets turfed out and that the NDP realizes the long-term game the USA is playing because like it or not, Trump is a loudmouth so he just can’t stop burbling about the CIA plans to annex Canada. It wouldn’t even matter if the DNC won next time, once their minds are on it…they’re on it. The DNC isn’t weak against the republicans, they’re in lock-step with them, just quietly.
It took them a few decades in some countries but that train is on the track.
If oil tanks out, and it looks like it will–Neshi might be able to take advantage of that situation because Alberta will be in a deep hole when that happens.
Proof that Alberta “conservatives” are anything but united. Also, time to quarantine the plague rat province.
Oh, as for funding a Tory party, DJC? (sorry second reading I caught it)
There’s a battle going on amongst the oligarchs, I’m sure you’ve noticed. Big Tech Vs Corporate Capital (as we peons getting economically crushed between these titans)
Corporate Capital and Old Money prefer stability. So they might be willing to toss some cash behind some tories to get stability. Or Big Tech may do it because they prefer to “move fast and break things.”
After all, every one these sources of funding fund BOTH the DNC and the Republican Party in the USA. No reason to think they won’t do it, here.
Interesting article.
Typo? ‘world’ instead of ‘word’?
Thanks, John. It’s been fixed. DJC
You have raised a lot of valid points, David, and I thank you for your thought out analysis.
Another point to consider is how well Misters Guthrie and Sinclair would fit in the PROGRESSIVE mold of a Progressive Conservative party. Mr. Sinclair started his journey out of the UCP when he expressed displeasure with how much money the UCP was directing towards Edmonton and Calgary, places his new party will need votes from.
Likewise, Peter Guthrie has spent enough time in the UCP caucus, and cabinet, that I think it would be difficult to make him appeal to centre-right voters.
As a result, what would really be needed for the new party to take hold is the appearance of a leader who would have more broad based appeal. Would Misters Guthrie and Sinclair be willing to park their egos and let such a leader take over?
All of that said, I am really enjoying the mental image of Danielle Smith completing the trifecta of dissolving the Calgary Board of Education, the Wildrose Party and the United Conservative Party.
I agree that we should not bet the farm in the immediate future on the PC’s making a huge difference. But often we can quote that the mighty oak grew from the small acorn. Given that the UCP majority is quite slim, my hope and optimism lies in that fact and it will not take as much as many might expect to tip the apple cart. Even a small gain and putting the UCP in a minority position, in my view, would throw a big wrench into Dictator Danni’s plans to my delight. No doubt we are in for some interesting times ahead.
Here’s an idea. Let the NDP cross over en masse to the PC 2.0 party.
Both the federal NDP and the AB NDP are in crisis.
Only the provincial squad doesn’t seem to know it yet.
“Grassroots NDP group calls on party faithful to redirect donations to local riding associations” (CBC, July 5, 2025)
“Reclaim Canada’s NDP” is a splinter group formed in response to the party brass’s mismanagement of the recent election. It has even posted a Template For Cancelling Monthly Donation on its website.
Reclaim Canada’s NDP (Media Release, July 5, 2025): “[… Yet, the Party’s popularity has severely declined. This election, Canadians showed that the NDP feels out of reach as a viable political option.
“Danielle Rae, an elected representative of the Lanark-Frontenac EDA speaks to the motivations felt at the local level: ‘We’ve lost our caucus, we’ve lost party status, and we’ve lost our cohesion. It’s time for the NDP to rebuild, and for the grassroots to lead.'”
Under Notley and the virtually inert Nenshi, the AB NDP has become a non-descript, middle-of-the-road, plain vanilla party. Standing for nothing. On energy and climate, NDP leaders ape the UCP.
“And everywhere that Marlaina went, the NDP was sure to go.”
There is apparently no principle the NDP is not willing to jettison in pursuit of votes. Detached from the grass roots, and led instead by a group of unelected nameless insiders: the party brass, corporate lobbyists, PR types, and backroom boys. Reduced to a vehicle for attaining power — or to watch helplessly from across the aisle as Marlaina dismantles Alberta, with Canada next.
The fact that the NDP and its listless leader have failed to capitalize on Marlaina’s disastrous policies, errors, and corruption is proof of its incompetence. The NDP needs to blow itself up and start over.
If a genuinely progressive, environmentally conscious NDP has no future in this province, the party may as well fold its tent. Join forces with the new PCs across the aisle.
If the PC’s 2.0 will have them.
As it stands, Alberta’s only functioning opposition is Alberta Politics.ca.
DC for Premier!
Geoffrey: As so often happens, you would all be bound to be disappointed by whatever I got up to as premier. DJC
I suggest you become the Canadian branch of the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog party and adopt their platform, which includes: eternal life, world peace, a one-day workweek, two sunsets a day (in assorted colours), lower gravity, free beer, and low taxes. Imagine: swilling beer but losing weight! I’d vote for that!
Geoffrey I wish I could say you’re wrong about the NDP…but you’re not.
I don’t follow the Alberta NDP that closely but I do follow the feds and Ontario and it’s been a downhill slide for a looooooong time. When Jack Layton got so close to the chair, the NDP destroyed the last remnants of their foundation based on labour-centric firebrands like Broadbent and looked for charmers as they played liberal-lite. Mulcair was a disgrace. Now that we have scads of young’uns with a bit of fire in their bellies due to their crappy future prospects, the NDP is *not* rising to the reality.
The O&G+ corporations and American interests have been having a heyday in Alberta for decades with very little pushback. They won’t be happy until they’re selling the air you breath. They’re certainly selling Alberta every form of media consumed and like a Hershey bar, one might not hurt Alberta but a few dozen certainly will destroy it forever. Getting alternative voices or even an honest NDP voice past that is a Sisyphean task.
If the NDP were still worker-centred they could be all over alternative media because the young are open to socialism, unions and love open dialogue podcasting. Party spokesmodels don’t last long in a two-hour+ discussion. The NDP are still begging the corporate elites for three-minute sales slots.
Danielle Smith and her strategists have ‘bet the farm’ on the threat of separation keeping her base in line – and the UCP in power. However, the movement is losing steam. A majority of the extreme right wing in the UCP are old white folk who are rapidly losing enthusiasm for separation after watching what’s going on down south. That doesn’t align with the Smith strategy, which is why we’re seeing Bell and other MSM sycophants hammering away at separation day after day. Trying to revive a dying nag. Watch for Danielle to veer away from separatism and towards new talking points. No idea what they might be. Pipelines? As for the neo-PC party, show me the money! Conservatives have no loyalty. If there’s a sudden gush in funding to the PC party, UCP staffers – and CPC staffers – will be lining up to grab top jobs.
@djc
Watch what Thomas Lukaszuk and other retired ABPC (Stelmach & Redford governments) ministers do. That’s where the new PC fundraising and organizational support could come from. That’s the external to the UCP tell.
The other indicator would be 4 (or more) UCP mla’s floor crossing or leaving caucus. That’s the internal to the UCP barometer. A measure of just how fractured their caucus truly is.
I think Guthrie & Sinclair will need both to get the new PC party off the ground. And a last thought – who would be leader of the new PC’s? I can’t see either of them in the job.
I agree with you that the UCP has fracture lines. Personally, I think it’s the separatists, Wildroser’s (some overlap there) & the old PC’ers.
I don’t know if I’d go as far as to call Guthrie and Sinclair “honourable”. They were members of the UCP, after all. That said, as I predicted here a few days ago, this is the likely scenario I see happening: Guthrie/Sinclair duo ruffle some feathers -> Smith calls Manning -> Manning calls Harper -> cheques are cut (likely in the 6-7 figure range) -> Guthrie and Sinclair quietly go away and are never heard from again -> UCP rule continues unabated
Sounds like the UCP is morphing into the DCP -the Disunited Conservative Party. Joking aside you have to wonder if this is much ado about nothing. Media driven. There was lots of rumours last fall prior to the UCP leadership review, there was grumbling in the ranks, people were unhappy, Danielle Smith was in trouble, etc. Yet when the votes were counted she sailed through with a 91% approval rating.
Hey, I hear Putin sailed through with 99% support. The people really love him, eh?
David, I cannot change your mind, and I really do not want to. You are among a small handful of lucid political/social analyst still standing in Alberta.
Frankly I am tired of political operatives and self serving opportunists slapping new labels on old snake oil. It has been the mode since the post Lougheed era – do the math: 18 years or older in 71 and the majority are done. I confess to not having the time or the inclination to recover from ‘Rachel Recovery Syndrome’. This is no longer my Alberta, I am adrift like Chauncey Gardiner.
So we will see where the cow chips fall. I will continue to rely on your insights not to step in too many for the remainder of my journey.
Thanks man!
David Climenhaga is an Alberta treasure. We have no one in Ontario his equal. If you can spare a few bucks, help him out.
On the Strategists podcast, both Shannon Phillips and Steven Carter agreed that a reformed PC Party would pose a greater threat to the NDP than to the UCP. The reasoning is that much of the NDP’s growth has come from disillusioned conservative voters and that they would return to a more centrist alternative if available.
The spelling of Deirdre is wrong in two places. (It does not follow the usual i before e routine.)
Thanks, ema. Fixed. My mistake. DJC
For all the “progressive labels” the NDP was anti – immigration when it was founded. *sighs deeply* guys we live in CANADA. in the most conservative pocket of a deeply conservative country who despite having three different “progressive parties” none of them are all that far left of centre.
The -only- meaningful opposition in alberta is indigenous, and that isn’t going to change. They actually organize. They know what the stakes are and they aren’t growing anywhere. The NDP deeply wants to be a corporate style party like the democrats. Other than direct action, I really don’t see a path forward for the left. The progressive parties should be talking about class and economic issues. We just saw a socialist win the primary in NYC, likely the next mayor of the cities largest country, where DONALD TRUMP LIVES. How did they do it? They stopped kissing corporate ass, laced up the gloves, got organized and hit the STREETS. It’s not a guarantee that if you fight you win, but it is a guarantee that if you DONT fight, you will lose. Until the NDP decides to actually show up for the working people of this province they will wander the political wilderness for the rest of our lives.