Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi mopped the floor with his opponents in the Edmonton-Strathcona by-election yesterday.
Mr. Nenshi can now join his caucus in the Legislature with his head held high, a convincing 82.5-per-cent victory behind him.
In the 2023 general election, party leader and former premier Rachel Notley captured 79.7 per cent of the vote, albeit on a higher turnout. So Mr. Nenshi’s 7,952 votes in the unofficial results from Elections Alberta after the polls closed last night will be just fine, thank you very much.
The Alberta Liberal Party (195 votes), Alberta Party (115), Republican Party of Alberta (65) and the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition (24 – but loyalty to what, one wonders?) could all have saved themselves considerable embarrassment if they hadn’t bothered to run anyone at all in Edmonton-Strathcona.
United Conservative Party candidate Darby Crouch’s 1,314 votes or 13.6 per cent should mildly embarrass the government party, but at least her feisty campaign appears to have saved the UCP from utter humiliation experienced by the other four.
“Danielle Smith and the UCP have now lost three by-elections in the last six months and have massively reduced their lead in a fourth,” Mr. Nenshi said in a statement last night after his victory was assured. “Voters sent a clear message tonight that the UCP doesn’t have a plan for a better future. No matter what the UCP throws at their campaigns, they come up short.
“A premier of Alberta must be a premier for all of us, and must work to improve our great province and our beautiful country,” he continued. “I’m ready to get to work building an Alberta where everyone has a real shot at a good life. Where jobs are strong, life is affordable, and opening your utility bill doesn’t make your stomach drop. Where health care is accessible, and yes, where every family finally has a family doctor. Where schools are strong, teachers and education workers are supported, and every child has the chance to thrive. Where safety means prevention, not just response. And where Alberta takes its place as a proud, united part of Canada.”
Meanwhile, a few kilometres south in Edmonton-Ellerslie, the race between the NDP and UCP candidates was closer, but the NDP lead was convincing enough at the final bell that Mr. Nenshi is unlikely to see NDP traditionalists who have been restive about his leadership performance dare to make an issue of it.
The NDP’s Gurtej Singh Brar posted a clear majority: 4,327 votes or 50.8 per cent of the vote, compared to 3,239 votes or 38 per cent for the UCP’s Naresh Bhardwaj. Not one of the candidates for the Alberta Liberals, Alberta Party, RPA or WLC managed to crack 5 per cent of the vote.
So, all told, it was a good night for Mr. Nenshi.
But who imagined the most exciting horserace in Alberta’s three June 23 by-elections as the results were counted last night would be in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills?
Not who won that rural by-election, of course. UCP candidate Tara Sawyer won easily, with 9,363 votes, or a respectable 61 per cent of the unofficial tally. (That compared to 75 per cent won by Nathan Cooper in 2023, so you can make something of that if you wish. Personally, I’m not that excited by that difference.)
The real race in O-D-3H was for who would come second. And, I must confess, I didn’t have the NDP pushing out the RPA for second place in this very conservative riding on my bingo card, with 3,061 votes compared to the RPA’s 2,705. The WLC managed a paltry 189.
Yeah, tribal loyalty to any party with the word “Conservative” in its name is to be expected in rural Alberta, but it’s reassuring to know the 51st staters of the RPA couldn’t muster as many votes for Cameron Davies as the New Democrats in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills could for Beverly Toews.
Others will spin things different ways, of course, but I would say it was not a particularly good night for Premier Danielle Smith and the UCP, notwithstanding their sturdy results in rural Central Alberta.
If the results achieved there by the Republican Party were to be duplicated in the next general election in places like Lethbridge East and Morinville-St. Albert, UCP cabinet ministers like Nathan Neudorf and Dale Nally would be done like dinner.
Elections Alberta says it will release official results on Thursday, July 3.
NOTE: This story was updated on June 24 to correct an error in the percentage of Mr. Nenshi’s vote.
I like Nenshi but I am seriously concerned that he is going to sound like a whiny tool in the legislature and actually cost himself support. I hope he’s done some media and persona training, and grown some thicker skin while he’s been on the outside.
It’s encouraging to see Nenshi win a seat in the Legislature so he can properly take on Smith. I don’t think mainstream media took his comments very seriously and being in the Legislature will hopefully change that.
Meanwhile Dingy Smith is using the Trump style of flooding the media with daily garbage so she can make it look like she is actually doing something good for Albertans when she really isn’t. To try and impress everyone she keeps barking about more pipelines, but if you listen to the Premier of B.C., the existing pipeline to the west coast is under-utilized by about 200,000 barrels per day. This is clear Smith is using pipelines as a distraction so she can ignore education and health care.
Pipelines, taxes and Ottawa. Three distractors guaranteed to wind up the easily wound up.
Big winner of the night was the NDP which achieved its objectives in all three by-elections. Big loser was the separatist Republicans. The UCP must be disappointed that they failed to secure a foothold in a suburban Edmonton riding.
The different thing about a by-election is that voters can use their vote to send a message to the governing party, without the risk of bringing on an unwanted regime change. So with regards to Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, I expect some of the people who voted Republican would not do so again, if a general election were held tomorrow.
That said, I hope the UCP will make note that more of their non-supporters want them to move leftward than farther to the right, even in their conservative heartland.
I am currently on a bit of a rural Alberta holiday, meandering through quieter highways. I believe I have been seeing more Canadian flags flying in farmer’s yards this year than I have seen in previous years. My guess is that even some of the locals don’t like the talk of separation.
Finally, some good news for progressive people in Alberta. NDP voters showed up. What pleased me, just as much, was Naheed Nenshi’s tone in his victory speech. I heard sincere gratitude for the NDP movement in this province, which he gave credit for the win, and admiration for the NDP caucus. Perhaps, in the last year, Naheed has become a New Democrat, maybe to his own surprise.
Lisa Wilson: Now only if the media would stop propping up the UCP and Danielle Smith and stop lying about the NDP, it would also help.
47-38-2. So 4 caucus departures for any reason, then Ditzy Dani & The United Clowns are a minority. I do wish I lived in one of those Calgary ridings that were razor thin UCP wins. Recall petition anyone?
It really is amazing how ignorant Rural Albertans are. As my late father would say “ These fools vote for the word Conservative and don’t care who the idiot is who’s hiding behind it. That’s how that sleazy bastard Ralph Klein got elected”. The fact that our family had known that sleazy bastard since 1960 didn’t help, we knew what a jerk he was. Members of his own family didn’t even support him.
Nothing has changed Rural Albertans continue to vote for the word Conservative and ignore the horrible financial mess these Reformers have created in this province and show no respect for our doctors, nurses, teachers, children and grandchildren.
They continue to tell Smith to go right ahead and destroy our water supply with coal mining, privatize our healthcare and education systems and pollute our land with abandon oil well we don’t care, that’s how stupid they are.
It’s not bad enough that they are paying the highest power bills in Canada, the highest property taxes, the highest vehicle registration fees, the highest vehicle insurance premiums, the highest long term healthcare fees, the highest cost for young drivers to get a drivers license or the highest cost for liquor, while Albertans have been screwed out of $1.2 trillion by Reformers slashing Lougheed’s oil royalties and corporate taxes, and these fools don’t care. As lawyers I have talked with, over the years, have said “ You can’t change Stupid, and that’s what they are Stupid.”
Alan Spiller: You are correct in so many ways.
It would seem to be a fairly good result for the NDP and not so good for the UCP.
Polls showing increased UCP support in Edmonton did not seem to be reflected at all in the results, particularly in the suburban riding. Over the years, the UCP has some brief increases in support in Edmonton, which don’t seem to last. Of course polls several years before the next election may also not capture some people thinking as seriously about it. Perhaps the best news for the NDP and maybe also for the UCP is that the NDP came out ahead of the separatists in the rural riding.
However, the separatists did get a significant number of votes, despite all of Smiths efforts to try to appeal to them and woo them back to the UCP. It is possible the separatist parties may fade away before the next provincial election, but if not, this could be a big problem for Smith and the UCP, particularly in ridings that were closer races than this rural one.
A separatist party could also now become a convenient way for some people on the right to register a protest vote not only against Ottawa but the UCP as well. For instance, for someone who is very unhappy about health care in their area or the UCP’s coal mining plans for the eastern slopes and who wants an alternative on the right, this could be that.
Of course Smith will probably mostly ignore or glibly dismiss this and what remains of the mainstream media in Alberta, which generally seems fairly supportive of the UCP, will probably accept what she says and move on to something else without too much more scrutiny of this result.
It’s good that the NDP took 2 of the three, but now it’s time for The NDP to really roll up their sleeves. The UPC is a train wreck and the NDP needs to get Albertans to open their eyes. Rebecca Shultz, Alberta Environment Minister, has now eliminated all limits on flaring. (Reuters) The Damage that the Shit government is doing, to the environment, health care, public education and the public sector, has to stop, before it becomes irreversible.
2 Jones……..Gloves off…….Elbows up…..Time for the UCP ditch billies to dry up and blow away……enough of the undereducated……..
Political scientists Lisa Young and Duane Bratt both seem unexcited by the results. The separatists did poorly overall and it’s unlikely they would even manage to split the election vote in most ridings. The NDP need to do better to win the next election.
But who knows, maybe Smith will blow up the UCP before then, as she doesn’t know how to withdraw gracefully. Some separatists are blaming the RPA for making their “independence” movement look bad, but they claim that many in the UCP also want “independence” and some even think Smith will negotiate the separation. I can imagine her throwing tantrums daily since she doesn’t know how to negotiate in good faith, and why would anyone trust her?
But they are just trapped in their wee bubble, it’s as fake as the Alberta pension plan nonsense.
This is mostly good news. Alan Spiller knows what a true Conservative is. So do I. Rural Albertans would vote for a fence post painted blue, and think it was a Conservative. There is nothing Conservative about the UCP, and there neve was. Same thing with most if the Alberta PCs, with the exception of Peter Lougheed. The media will continue to lie about the NDP, and that’s especially true for Postmedia columnists, while they continue to prop up the pseudo Conservatives in the UCP. It’s exactly why Rachel Notley and the NDP were defeated in 2023. Anyone who believes otherwise is just as guilty as those who blame Rachel Notley and the NDP, Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau for Alberta’s financial pro,when they had no responsibility for it whatsoever.
I listened to CBC West of Centre’s bonus podcast called “In Search of Separatists in Alberta”, posted June 22nd, the day before the byelections. In it, CBC journalists Jason Markusoff and Jayme Poisson went to Three Hills to attend a public “town hall” held by the Alberta Republican Party, and interview other locals, including the town mayor.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but the level of delusional grievance brought out both in the town hall meeting and other interviews was disturbing. Resentment of central Canada, clearly bigoted views towards Québec, conflation of “Alberta values” with Christianity and religious faith, and complete misunderstanding of equalization, were only some of the views expressed that made me want to scream and shout at the radio in my car as I listened during my daily commute to and from work.
It was both gratifying and unsettling that the amount of attention paid in this podcast to the separatist movement was not borne out by how constituents voted on the 23rd.
Of course, the media, even the normally rational CBC, is going to follow the “if it bleeds, it leads” model of how it covers the news, especially now that reader/listener/viewer engagement can be directly measured by “clicks”. But the media is giving more attention to this fringe movement than it deserves, as evidenced by the very minimal number of vote the separatist candidates won in the two city ridings, and their inability even in deeply blue rural Alberta to get more votes than the dreaded NDP. What the media are doing, therefore, is akin to giving a screaming toddler or resentful acting-out teenager the attention they want, rewarding their behaviour and thereby encouraging more of it.
This result is also another illustration that public opinion cannot be gauged by who shouts the loudest or has the most riled-up people attending rallies – if it were, Pierre Poilièvre would be Prime Minister right now. It’s best gauged by statistically rigourous public opinion polling and by who shows up at the ballot box.
https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/west-of-centre/id1496639620?i=1000714053279