With recent polling results giving many MLAs in the Alberta NDP’s substantial Opposition caucus the jitters, the by-election next Monday in Edmonton-Ellerslie is shaping up to be a significant test for party Leader Naheed Nenshi.

There will be two other by-elections on June 23. One is in Edmonton-Strathcona where Mr. Nenshi is expected finally to be elected with relative ease and gain a seat in the Legislature. The electoral district was previously represented by former premier Rachel Notley and before that by the late Raj Pannu and is one of the safest NDP ridings in the province.
The other, in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, could turn out to be a close race for the governing United Conservative Party – at least if you believe some right-wing pundits in the employ of the foreign-owned Postmedia newspaper chain. However, it will likely be with the openly separatist Republican Party of Alberta, not the NDP.
But it’s Edmonton-Ellerslie – left open by former NDP MLA Rod Loyola’s impetuous and ultimately foolish decision to quit the NDP and resign his seat in the Legislature to run for the Liberals in April’s federal election – that is shaping up as the litmus test for the leadership of the former Calgary mayor.
Mr. Nenshi was overwhelmingly chosen as NDP leader in a party vote last June with 86 per cent of the ballots cast by party members. He overcame party stalwarts like Sarah Hoffman, the minister of health in Ms. Notley’s government from 2015 to 2019, and Kathleen Ganley, who was minister of justice in those hopeful days.
Since then, though, his leadership has been criticized as listless, often disengaged. No one in the caucus, perhaps trained too well in party discipline by Ms. Notley, has spoken up publicly, although you can count on it there’s been grumbling. Among the general membership, there’s a widespread sense of ennui and considerable buyers’ remorse.

Not surprisingly, but nevertheless a big concern for the party, membership has taken a dive as new Dippers who signed up to vote for Mr. Nenshi haven’t shown much interest in re-upping when their memberships ran out after a year.
Nevertheless, at the start of May the party faithful gathered in Edmonton for their annual convention and one item on their agenda was a leadership review for Mr. Nenshi. He passed again with an 89.5 per cent endorsement by the members.
Still, fear persists in the caucus and the party that if Mr. Nenshi doesn’t shape up soon, he’ll lead the NDP over a cliff in the next election – and create the conditions in which Alberta has to deal with an even more emboldened MAGA UCP government led by Danielle Smith or someone even worse.
So the stakes are high – for Mr. Nenshi, for the NDP, and for the province. And the contest that matters, everyone seems to agree, with be in Edmonton-Ellerslie.
After all, the NDP swept all ridings within the border of the city of Edmonton in the 2023 provincial election. So, arguably, Edmonton-Ellerslie should be an easy win for the Opposition party.

But maybe not. If there’s an Edmonton riding where the UCP can win, it’s likely to be in the city’s suburbs, and Edmonton-Ellerslie is about as suburban as it gets. The UCP can be expected to campaign hard to win that riding and, if they do, their candidate can probably expect a seat in Cabinet.
Polls like the Janet Brown Opinion Research survey last month suggest conservative support is growing inside Edmonton. Ms. Brown’s results put the NDP and UCP in a statistical tie, with the NDP losing young voters.
Chatter that Edmonton-Ellerslie could be up for grabs has generated considerable interest in the by-election. According to Elections Alberta, six parties are running candidates:
- Former Progressive Conservative MLA Naresh Bhardwaj for the UCP
- Former journalist Gurtej Singh Brar for the NDP
- Caroline Currie for the Alberta Party
- Pamela Henson for the fringy Wildrose Loyalty Coalition
- Businessman Fred Munn for the Republican Party of Alberta
- Computer science teacher Manpreet Tiwana for the Alberta Liberals
With the exception of Mr. Bhardwaj, who has a Wikipedia page that he might be just as happy not to have, the biographical information on all these candidates is skimpy and uninformative.

The Republican Party (which if you ask me is just the UCP’s Take Back Alberta faction with a more honest name) is said to be putting real money and effort into Ellerslie too. So maybe a split on the right will be enough to ensure the NDP a victory – but this is 2025 and no one, least of all Mr. Nenshi, should count on anything! Especially in a by-election, where the turnout is likely to be low.
The UCP candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona – Darby Crouch, press secretary to Agriculture Minister RJ Sigurdson – may not have much chance of winning, but she is running a feisty campaign that seems designed to define Mr. Nenshi in ways that will help the UCP in a future general election.
So it’s said here, if the NDP loses in Edmonton-Ellerslie, or even if it wins but narrowly, the knives will be out for Mr. Nenshi in the caucus and the party. Metaphorically speaking of course, this being the NDP we’re talking about.
If the NDP wins handily in Edmonton-Ellerslie, Mr. Nenshi can be expected to be on track for the next big contest with the UCP – the general election officially scheduled to take place in 2027, but which could very well come sooner if the UCP continues lead in the polls despite controversies like making seniors pay for COVID vaccines and easing the way for Australian billionaires to dig open pit mines on the Eastern Slopes of the Rockies.
If that happens, though, Mr. Nenshi had best not go back to sleep after the Legislature sits with him in it from Oct. 27 to Nov. 27.
That was a not so fun read. Its not the writing, its the information provided. Its depressing. Its not your fault, but the news is depressing these days. Well now that I think about it, given all the other problems in the world and wars, the elections will be conducted and the results reported and if the NDP candidates don’t do well, I’m sure there will be some changes, first one, a new leader for the NDP. Of course if COVID rates increase in Alberta things might turn out ugly for Smith. The price of those shots are not low. If the NDP doesn’t have much to say about that, then they too may find themselves looking for new jobs.
On the bright side trump has left Alberta.
e.a.f: Blame the media for lying about the NDP, and for not holding the UCP and Danielle Smith to account for their lies and their major missteps, and for not even acknowledging the NDP. Second, blame Danielle Smith for keeping Naheed Nenshi out of the Alberta Legislature.
This will be very interesting to see. The only reasons why Rachel Notley and the NDP faced defeat in the 2023 provincial election in Alberta is because you have a media who not only lied about Rachel Notley and the NDP, but they blatantly refused to take Danielle Smith and the UCP to task for their obvious lies (which are numerous), and they also didn’t condemn the UCP’s very costly boondoogles, and their other major missteps. Had the media bothered to expose what the UCP were doing wrong, Rachel Notley would still be our premier, and the NDP would still be in power. You cannot blame Rachel Notley and the NDP for that at all.
Danielle Smith is extremely afraid of Naheed Nenshi, and that’s why she has put off this by-election in Edmonton Strathcona for as long as she has. It could have been done sooner, but she didn’t want that, because she is afraid of facing off against Naheed Nenshi in the Alberta Legislature, which already had the shortest amount of sessions in Canada as it is, due to Ralph Klein’s cabinet minister, Stockwell Day, in 1997, cutting those sessions by half, and those sessions were cut back even more by Danielle Smith. Naheed Nenshi has known Danielle Smith since they were students at the University of Calgary, in the early 1990s. Since their relationship goes back that far, Danielle Smith can’t play any stupid games with Naheed Nenshi. If he is even in the Alberta Legislature for even one session, Danielle Smith will trip and fall. No avoiding it.
The media still doesn’t give Naheed Nenshi and the NDP the attention they deserve. They still prop up Danielle Smith and the UCP at every turn, while still publishing lies about the NDP. Once the MH Care (Corrupt Care) scandal by Danielle Smith and the UCP gains more prominence, that will change things. It has a lot more to it, the UCP ship will be on a collison course with a very large iceberg.
Who corrects columnists who publish their lies? Academics at universities have to. These poor grade columnists at Postmedia will not see the errors they publish, and they will very rarely publish any letters that expose these frauds in the UCP, masquerading as Conservatives. In any comment sections in Postmedia publications, there are people who hurl nasty comments and anyone who is smart enough not to agree with how bad of a government the UCP are. How much more foolish can you get?
https://albertapolitics.ca/2023/05/copy-editors-checking-facts-thats-thing-of-the-past-at-postmedia-apparently-as-election-column-illustrates/
I wouldn’t discount simple spite as one motive among those underlying Smith’s delaying of the by-election – as you say, she and Nenshi knew one another in their salad days, and I have the feeling that Smith is one to cherish a grudge.
Also, her contempt for democratic government is a likely justification. She probably regards the Opposition as inherently illegitimate, and thwarting its expression by any mean available is perfectly acceptable. Keeping Nenshi on the outside looking in, without even a seat, is a consequence of her apparent belief that no Dipper belongs in the Legislature to begin with. Remember how she attempted, after the last election, to put together sort of a shadow Edmonton caucus of defeated Edmonton UCP candidates to circumvent the fact that the city had sent a solid slate of NDP MLAs to the Legislature.
Lars: I remember that shadow cabinet attempt. Danielle Smith truly detests democracy, and that’s evident in numerous actions of the UCP. Even the coal mining town hall was rigged, by the location of it (Fort MacLeod), and the venue size, which had a capacity of 500. There was an arena near this venue, which has a larger capacity, and could hold more people, but that wasn’t used. Political science professors have termed Danielle Smith’s governance as creeping fascism. It is very dangerous. The conclusion is that Danielle Smith is power hungry. Naheed Nenshi has the ability to make Danielle Smith uncomfortable, and she doesn’t like it. He may be her biggest foe. That is, if she lasts that long, because of the MH Care (Corrupt Care) scandal. If these two were in a provincial election debate, she wouldn’t stand a chance against him. In any place you hear Danielle Smith speaking, it is a given that she will say things that aren’t accurate, and they will contain lies, or somethingthat is different from something that she said previously. That still will aid in her downfall. Regardless, the damage that she has already done is going to be very difficult to rectify. Unfortunately, it’s likely that it can’t be rectified.
Then Nenshi needs to stop relying on mainstream media outlets.
The NDP across the country has been absolutely remiss in not cultivating online spaces. The news doesn’t work the way it used to. The MSM can be forced by virtue of online popularity to cover stories it avoids not vice versa. Attention is built from the grassroots up and for some reason, the NDP does not seem to be in this century.
There are popular podcasting leftists in the USA that would be more than happy to host a Canadian viewpoint as they do from other countries outside the USA. Canadians watch these shows. I do follow them, and often meet dozens of Canadians in the chats. Over a year…this is hundreds with thousands more behind them that don’t engage in the chats. Tens of thousands of Canadians were exposed to Bernie Sanders on Joe Rogan (before JR was audience-captured by the right)
More young Canadians watch/listen to American New Media than are exposed to Canadian mainstream media. Yet the NDP refuses to take advantage of that. Jagmeet Singh understood this implicitly but explicitly–he wasn’t comfortable enough to take it all the way.
Mainstream media favours the sound-bite manufacturing incumbents.
New Media favours the bold because the scripts fly out the window about half an hour into the discussion and what’s left are the values, dignity and authenticity of the candidate–whether one agrees with their positions or not.
B: The NDP never got this and I doubt they ever will. They truly didn’t understand who their friends were and who were their enemies. DJC
There are a number of unhappy people living in Alberta right now. Why are they unhappy? Because of the policies of the UCP. These elected people have no interest in governing for the people, but only for their misguided friends. One has to ask themselves whether they want to live in a province, and even that is being questioned by the UCP and their supporters, whereby everything related to the public trust is being slowly destroyed, or a province solidly a part of Canada; a place whereby people are judiciously and properly supported by their government. The state of Alberta is currently full of disengaged citizens led by a cabal of insane plutocrats, thugs, and dictatorial grifters. However, are there not enough unhappy people in Alberta for Nenshi to rally towards an NDP victory? Given the facts one would hope for change toward a government that actually governs. Everyone knows that Alberta is rife for a general strike – that is just how bad it is in Alberta.
Nevertheless, Albertans have proven time and time again that politically they are true blue, always have been, always will be. Which is why the UCP can do their worst and they know that they will be chosen by the people who obviously want their government to whip them into submission.
NO way to rationalize what is occurring in Alberta – either the population has gone completely mad in keeping with the current worldwide phenomena of the rise of fascism in which case this “fad” must run its course meaning world war is upon us, or that the oligarchs et al have simply taken control of the levers of power, which again will result in world war, or that humanity has lost its mind knowing that our time is limited due to global warming. In which case since there is nothing left to lose let’s decide to create chaos – what fun.
Will those who do not subscribe to fascism unite?
Goethe was right: The tides are turning. The UCP are going to meet their demise, because of the MH Care (Corrupt Care) scandal.
Successful politicians tap into emotion. Nenshi’s campaign perfectly targeted the zeitgeist of 2010. Rightfully or not, Calgary has always had imperial aspirations. It sees itself as the commercial seat of Western Canada and the inevitable counter pole to Laurentian Canada. Much like Edmonton’s attitudes towards the city to the south, Calgary projects scorn on Laurentian Canada while yearning for its respect. Electing an urbanist, South Asian, Muslim university professor as Mayor played as the perfect signal that Calgary wasn’t redneck. Unfortunately, the boom went bust and Nenshi’s big spending failed to deliver. Smith has positioned the UCP perfectly on the cusp of tolerating separatist notions as an outlet for dissatisfaction with the federal government without outright supporting it. Of course this high risk strategy could easily unravel.
What is the NDP strategy? Over the top accusations of MAGAdom fail to land when the UCP acts somewhat less crazy than expected. Criticism of the heath and education systems also fails as no province has delivered much in the way of improved performance in spite of every increasing resource allocation.
Nenshi will do to the ANDP what what’s his name did to the federal party. Time enough to fix it, but …
You cannot opposition from the sidelines……..nobody takes you seriously……seriously if you want to change the future…….then point out the foreign interfence in canadian politics……cast out postmedia and the ever lovining zionist REPUBLICAN authors and peoducers of your daily info lies…….wake up people…..democracy deserves principles……we are in the age of classlessness and greed…..are these the so called christian values you adhere to??????
First of all, I’m not sure by elections are a great predictor for future elections. Many parties have done well, even surprisingly well, in by elections only to come up short when it really mattered. However, I suppose they are a fairly good way of taking the political temperature at the moment.
It does seem the initial enthusiasm for Nenshi had waned some. I do feel bring an opposition leader is a tough job, even more so when you do not have the profile of bring in the legislature every day leading the attack. Lets not forget even the current premier had a very bumpy ride when she was opposition leader.
If you are too critical, you turn off people by being negative, shrill or ineffective. If you put forth constructive ideas, the government attacks or demeans them or even worse sometimes steals them.
So many opposition leaders waiting for a election a couple years away seem adrift like yesterdays man. In reality they are mostly just biding time waiting for the government to defeat itself and at an opportune moment give them a good nudge so they stumble even more.
Unless the NDP does quite badly the by election results will probably not matter much and be soon forgotten.
One can only hope Edmonton Strathcona is smart enough not to elect the disgraced former mayor of Calgary to an Edmonton seat. This seat should go to someone who lives in the community and will represent the constituents. Nenshi is from Calgary, for Calgary. We have seen him raise taxes and accomplish nothing
Perhaps we’ve fallen once again for an authoritarian idea, ergo, that a magical leader can fix everything that needs fixing. I worried that many of the people who flocked to the NDP to vote for Nenshi weren’t actually committed to the party or its principles. Many of them looked like disgruntled Liberals to me…people who didn’t want a UCP government and were looking for some star candidate to demolish that government.
The problem may well be that such magical thinkers aren’t normally that politically active or engaged. Perhaps they didn’t notice that it is in rural Alberta that we need to win votes away from a right wing party that has clung to power for most of our history. Certainly it didn’t occur to them that Nenshi’s international flavour might not sell in those rural seats as well as it went over in Calgary.
Finally, I doubted back then that many of them would stay on to work for a victory in the next election. It hurts to predict the future so accurately sometimes, but it doesn’t surprise me that the newbies have left the field…..though possibly Nenshi will still get their vote.
Let’s hope so. Because there are no magical bullets that will defeat this current government. It’s going to take hard work, engagement, and a bit of luck. Nenshi or no Nenshi.