With recent polling results giving many MLAs in the Alberta NDP’s substantial Opposition caucus the jitters, the by-election next Monday in Edmonton-Ellerslie is shaping up to be a significant test for party Leader Naheed Nenshi.
There will be two other by-elections on June 23. One is in Edmonton-Strathcona where Mr. Nenshi is expected finally to be elected with relative ease and gain a seat in the Legislature. The electoral district was previously represented by former premier Rachel Notley and before that by the late Raj Pannu and is one of the safest NDP ridings in the province.
The other, in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, could turn out to be a close race for the governing United Conservative Party – at least if you believe some right-wing pundits in the employ of the foreign-owned Postmedia newspaper chain. However, it will likely be with the openly separatist Republican Party of Alberta, not the NDP.
But it’s Edmonton-Ellerslie – left open by former NDP MLA Rod Loyola’s impetuous and ultimately foolish decision to quit the NDP and resign his seat in the Legislature to run for the Liberals in April’s federal election – that is shaping up as the litmus test for the leadership of the former Calgary mayor.
Mr. Nenshi was overwhelmingly chosen as NDP leader in a party vote last June with 86 per cent of the ballots cast by party members. He overcame party stalwarts like Sarah Hoffman, the minister of health in Ms. Notley’s government from 2015 to 2019, and Kathleen Ganley, who was minister of justice in those hopeful days.
Since then, though, his leadership has been criticized as listless, often disengaged. No one in the caucus, perhaps trained too well in party discipline by Ms. Notley, has spoken up publicly, although you can count on it there’s been grumbling. Among the general membership, there’s a widespread sense of ennui and considerable buyers’ remorse.
Not surprisingly, but nevertheless a big concern for the party, membership has taken a dive as new Dippers who signed up to vote for Mr. Nenshi haven’t shown much interest in re-upping when their memberships ran out after a year.
Nevertheless, at the start of May the party faithful gathered in Edmonton for their annual convention and one item on their agenda was a leadership review for Mr. Nenshi. He passed again with an 89.5 per cent endorsement by the members.
Still, fear persists in the caucus and the party that if Mr. Nenshi doesn’t shape up soon, he’ll lead the NDP over a cliff in the next election – and create the conditions in which Alberta has to deal with an even more emboldened MAGA UCP government led by Danielle Smith or someone even worse.
So the stakes are high – for Mr. Nenshi, for the NDP, and for the province. And the contest that matters, everyone seems to agree, with be in Edmonton-Ellerslie.
After all, the NDP swept all ridings within the border of the city of Edmonton in the 2023 provincial election. So, arguably, Edmonton-Ellerslie should be an easy win for the Opposition party.
But maybe not. If there’s an Edmonton riding where the UCP can win, it’s likely to be in the city’s suburbs, and Edmonton-Ellerslie is about as suburban as it gets. The UCP can be expected to campaign hard to win that riding and, if they do, their candidate can probably expect a seat in Cabinet.
Polls like the Janet Brown Opinion Research survey last month suggest conservative support is growing inside Edmonton. Ms. Brown’s results put the NDP and UCP in a statistical tie, with the NDP losing young voters.
Chatter that Edmonton-Ellerslie could be up for grabs has generated considerable interest in the by-election. According to Elections Alberta, six parties are running candidates:
- Former Progressive Conservative MLA Naresh Bhardwaj for the UCP
- Former journalist Gurtej Singh Brar for the NDP
- Caroline Currie for the Alberta Party
- Pamela Henson for the fringy Wildrose Loyalty Coalition
- Businessman Fred Munn for the Republican Party of Alberta
- Computer science teacher Manpreet Tiwana for the Alberta Liberals
With the exception of Mr. Bhardwaj, who has a Wikipedia page that he might be just as happy not to have, the biographical information on all these candidates is skimpy and uninformative.
The Republican Party (which if you ask me is just the UCP’s Take Back Alberta faction with a more honest name) is said to be putting real money and effort into Ellerslie too. So maybe a split on the right will be enough to ensure the NDP a victory – but this is 2025 and no one, least of all Mr. Nenshi, should count on anything! Especially in a by-election, where the turnout is likely to be low.
The UCP candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona – Darby Crouch, press secretary to Agriculture Minister RJ Sigurdson – may not have much chance of winning, but she is running a feisty campaign that seems designed to define Mr. Nenshi in ways that will help the UCP in a future general election.
So it’s said here, if the NDP loses in Edmonton-Ellerslie, or even if it wins but narrowly, the knives will be out for Mr. Nenshi in the caucus and the party. Metaphorically speaking of course, this being the NDP we’re talking about.
If the NDP wins handily in Edmonton-Ellerslie, Mr. Nenshi can be expected to be on track for the next big contest with the UCP – the general election officially scheduled to take place in 2027, but which could very well come sooner if the UCP continues lead in the polls despite controversies like making seniors pay for COVID vaccines and easing the way for Australian billionaires to dig open pit mines on the Eastern Slopes of the Rockies.
If that happens, though, Mr. Nenshi had best not go back to sleep after the Legislature sits with him in it from Oct. 27 to Nov. 27.