It’s not quite midnight here in Alberta on election night and at this hour it looks as if there’s something to disappoint almost everyone.
“LIBERALS SET TO RETURN TO POWER,” The Globe and Mail proclaims, but not with a majority or all that comfortable a lead – 165 to 147 for the Conservatives with 93 per cent of the polls reporting.
Given the confident predictions of a number of pollsters in the past few days that Canada’s Natural Governing Party was headed for a majority, that has to be a disappointment for Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberals. But, still, he is the PM, and this time he has an actual mandate of sorts, plus he won his own seat, so that’s got that to temper the disappointment.
Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, who thought for months he was a deadbolt cinch to be prime minister with a majority so massive he could do what he pleased with the country, led his party to yet another defeat, albeit a narrow one. At press time, as we used to say, he looked to be about to lose his own seat. He says he wants to stick around as leader, though. We’ll see about that. So, plenty of disappointment for the Cons.
The NDP under Jagmeet Singh? Not just disappointment, disaster! The party’s been reduced to a pathetic seven seats, completely shut out of Ontario. (Where’s Charlie Angus now that we need him?) Mr. Singh lost his own seat in British Columbia and quit on the spot. Under the circumstances, that was a mercy to all concerned. The party’s future is murky.
As for the Bloc Québécois, with 23 seats, they don’t quite hold the balance of power in the next Parliament. They suffered a stampede of voters to the Liberals – Quebec electors seeming to have a kind of herd intelligence lacking in the rest of the country. So it was a disappointing night for Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, too. Quebec sovereignty will have to move to the back burner for a spell.
Here in Alberta, the province’s Conservatives, New Democrats and Liberals all have something to cry about. When the federal Conservatives start looking around for someone to blame for their loss, Premier Danielle Smith is bound to find herself in the metaphorical crosshairs. Her own caucus will likely become more unruly and hard to control. So there was disappointment last night for her as well. I wonder if she’ll congratulate Mr. Carney, which even Mr. Poilievre managed to do.
Meanwhile, south of the 49th Parallel, President Donald Trump may find some joy in the results, or maybe not. Who the hell knows? No matter, his polls are plunging faster that a broken circus ride. Colour him disappointed too.
So is anybody entitled to be happy on this disappointing night? Sure! Leastways, one imagines that Elizabeth May, once again the sole Green with a chair in the House of Commons, will be privately delighted. No more annoying co-leader, although that’s a thought she’s wise enough to keep to herself, and once again she’ll be the brightest and best briefed MP in Parliament unless you count that guy with a PhD in economics.
OK, so there will obviously be many more conclusions to draw from this on the morrow, as the dust settles, the seat count solidifies, and we all give our heads a shake.
And, as comedian Billy Connolly would say, the results may all have changed again in the morning, so %$#& stay awake!
What Canadians didn’t want was a phony Conservative and Reformer in power, who would sell Canada out to Donald Trump in a heartbeat. Good.
Here in White-Rock South Surrey the incumbent Tory MP Kerry Lynn Findlay went down to defeat. I assisted in this enterprise. But I am dumbfounded as the constituents of the riding are elderly boomers and well off types usually bitching about high taxes, and so on.
Libs get a fresh start. Cons get a fresh start. Possibly Canada has a chance. Alberta hanging on strong to “the lost conservative century” with 3 out of 10 eyeballin the south, and QC still could join Canada ~fOr A cHaNgE ~ If pp comes back to play with Harper that nightmare might catch fire.
The vote certainly reflects our divided society. I hoped that the NDP would remain a voice for the working person, but the people, we the cruel, have no interest in looking out for the working class and that is what this election represents an assault on the working class. Class warfare. With the Liberals in a minority government will we have another election within the nest two years? I suppose there will be some shuffling with the Conservatives/GOP? Certainly the NDP. The Liberals had better do something astonishing to bolster their support or else they will falter spectacularly.
Overall, the results of the election are a mess, just like the dystopian, unfettered, world we exist in today – or not if you are a true believer and the like. The election results mirror our fragmented society but it is heading in the direction of complete dissolution and, oh, the suffering that will ensue. Very strange indeed that the authoritarian governments around the world – Hungary, USA, Belarus, Italy, India, and so on have completely ushered in a time of silent suffering for many people. I do not think that Canada is exempt from this and this suffering will occur when the Conservatives get into power. Alberta is an example of a horrid government who has the support of the majority of voters in this province and happily destroy everything around them. Makes one wonder if we are going through a time of collective suicide, I guess it makes sense if you get the fact that we are in the beginning of the sixth extinction.
The only bright spot in all this is Trump addresses Carney as “Mark”. No doubt Trump has a soft spot for Carney and his former company Brookfield Asset Management after it came to the rescue of the debt plagued Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, by signing a 99 year $1.1 billion lease on a Manhattan office tower in 2018.
https://blendrnews.substack.com/p/trump-carney-and-brookfield-the-billion
Via your own posted article ronmack, “Mark Carney was not involved in Brookfield when the Kushner deal was closed.”
Now I have all kinds of problems with a banker running the country. Same problems I’ve had with any rich financiers running the place who is a Red Tory wearing a liberal tie.
That said, innuendo is not fact.
Let’s deal with the problems in front of us as they’re large enough, without adding in unproven allegations that lead to errors in judgement and disillusionment when planning organizing strategies.
With Poilievre losing his own seat, do you think the message might finally penetrate Dumb Dani’s thick skull that, after she boasted how in sync with Trump he was, that Canadians reject her brand of extremism? Probably not. But I can see the opportunist-in-chief of Hellberta positioning herself to run for the federal PC leadership since her power madness appears to know no bounds. Or maybe her own caucus will finally turn on her and give her the boot for having played a major part in bringing about PP’s downfall. If the federal PCs have any sense, they’ll go centrist with the choice of their next leader. If Albertans have any sense, which judging from yesterday’s blue sweep, they don’t, they will give Dani the boot when her turn comes too.
Maybe movement in the reverse direction to the one you mention, i.e. P.P. looking at possible UCP leadership? After almost twenty years of non achievement the voters of Carleton decided to punt him.
We can expect an abundance of “sturm und drang” from Smith and the stamping of her “gunboats” at the results of the election. It appears Smith will not be able to count on British Columbia or Manitoba if she decides to go on a “let’s rip Canada apart” tour. Too many Liberals elected in those provinces.
It’s a shame Pierre Polyester lost his seat. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Of course, he will stay on as leader, he has no other marketable skills.
There will be lots of talk about “Western alienation” after this election. But let’s not overstate the issue. BC and the Yukon are not on board with that notion, as the Liberals won both the popular vote and a narrow plurality of seats in BC as well as Yukon’s sole seat. As for Manitoba, the Liberals were far more competitive than you’d expect if they too were “alienated”.
Yes, the Cons won big in Saskatchewan, taking all the seats but one, and a ⅔ majority of popular vote. Here in Alberta, the Cons got slightly less: 63.7% and 34 of 37 seats, but the Liberals won a seat in each of Calgary and Edmonton, while the NDP held their safest seat in Edmonton Strathcona. The CPC super-majorities were primarily in what journalist Jason Markusoff has called “Otherland”: Alberta’s small and medium-sized cities combined with rural Alberta.
The real divides in Canada are based on population density and the economy and labour market. Liberals and — sometimes — New Democrats tend to do better in places with high population density, where the economy and the labour market are dominated by knowledge workers, the service industry and the public sector.
Conservatives tend to do better in more sparsely populated parts of the country, where the economy and the labour market are dominated by agriculture and extractive industries like mining, forestry and oil and gas. Since Alberta’s zeitgeist is so tied to the latter, despite being heavily urbanized, it’s no surprise Conservatives rule here.
But Canadians aren’t going to blindly lay down and accept fossil fuel pipelines willy-nilly in every direction regardless of environmental impact or Indigenous land rights. So these divisions are likely to persist until some solution is found to these seemingly intractable conflicts.
After 20 plus years of electing Pierre Poilievre, the voters of Carleton suddenly decided they didn’t want him anymore, even though a significant part of the rest of the country seems OK with voting Conservative. My guess is that people in the Ottawa area riding were not impressed with his catering to the truck convoy. The truck convoy may not have affected Carleton directly, but some of the residents of the riding probably had to drive in the downtown area that the protestors shut down. No doubt some Carleton voters have family members, or close friends, who live in the downtown area and really wanted to see Poilievre punished.
One wonders which poor slub of a Conservative MP here in Alberta will be told to resign so the Leader of the Opposition can win a by-election in safe seat. Perhaps Mr Cooper?
Or that fellow Genius who isn’t.
The longest serving MP from Calgary is Michelle Rempel Garner – elected first in 2011, so she should have nice pension. She is young enough that she could resign her seat for Poilievre, and relaunch a career in provincial politics. I vaguely recall she had expressed an interest in the past, but decided not to enter the UCP leadership fray because the environment was too toxic, or some such expression.
As the blogger reports, Mr. Peepers intends to stay on as CPC leader. To communicate with his members he will have to sit in the public gallery, conveying instructions with hand gestures to his deputy and other caucus members. After squandering a twenty-five point lead, they might return his digital offerings with a few of their own.
Tom, just watch the Cons all staring at their phones as the text messages come flying in faster than the bullets from machine gun fire.
Plenty of disappointment for everyone as the vote count goes into its second day!
Donald Trump’s lurking like a vulture on the southern border with plans to take over the world, so we’d better lick our wounds and start working together to stop him.
Whatever happens next, is Jason Kenney the new Stephen Harper? Please, haven’t we suffered enough?
Perhaps ‘Stay Awoke’ fits the moment a little better.
What’s scary is the cons supporters have already ramped up their “stolen election” bullsh*t machine with a video of a guy, back to the camcorder, putting a white filing box in his trunk that you can’t see, then filming nothing but his car interior while claiming to talk to a polling worker who is claiming he is taking the votes box home until he takes it to a polling station another day to be counted.z
Sent around by a guy claiming to be a British Patriot.
It’s like the staging of the Battlestar Galactica vote-stealing scene without actual showing the label on the box.
And these chuckleheads will believe it because they also turned a tweet about a guy claiming the election was stolen because there was no conservative listed on his ballot–in a riding that had no conservative, running. When this was pointed out…he proceeded to whine because he “should be able to vote for whoever he wants”. Nobody in the comments pointed out to him he could have written in his cat, favourite rock star or whoever else he wanted, on the ballot, or that the election is about voting for *who your MP is*, not who will be the Prime Minister–especially if your preferred party is not running, there. He just got flamed out.
THAT is why this is such a mess. You have people untutored in how elections actually work and instead of posting a video or somesuch *explaining* the process and just ratcheting up the grievance train until it hits lunacy level.
I’m not happy with the results for various reasons. However, ya work with what ya got.
And I can take some comfort in the fact that PP won’t be gaining the keys to the kingdom for at a couple years, at least. I hope.
(PS: Just for funzies I KNOW that parking lot and there’s a *STAPLES* just full of white boxes just behind the parking spot where that guy is filming. Dunno if I can post a link but here’s the twitter post: https://nitter.poast.org/TheBritLad/status/1917140694235304198#m )
Once again the stupidity continues in Alberta with the fools trying to get Poilievre elected so he could help Smith destroy us. Thank god the eastern Canadians are a lot smarter than Albertans. I think having a minority government is right thing to do it will force them to work together and I think Carney is the perfect guy to see that it happens the major problem was that clown Poilievre who was trying to be Donald Trump. He even tried to blame the tragedy in Vancouver on Carney that’s how stupidity this guy is. If he thinks the conservatives will keep him on as leader he is a damn fool, when he should have won.
Albertans have once again shown our children and grandchildren no respect for what their future could bring with the massive debts these Reformers have created for them, and telling Smith to do whatever she wants to this province.
Go ahead and pollute all you want and to hell with what it does to you or fires it creates and drought it brings.
Can you imagine rural Albertans being so stupid they would agree to having Abandon Oil Wells dumped in their laps, rendering their land basically worthless and their water supply polluted by Coal Mining, or their municipalities cheated out of tax money by the oil industry. By supporting these Reformers that’s exactly what they have done, isn’t it?
Best part is Pollievre losing seat.
Received a congratulatory message from a friend in Ohio who is wondering if they might become the 11th province.
In regards to Mr. Poilievre – every career politician needs to be forced off the public teat at least once. While I don’t think he will ever need to wear a pair of work boots to make a living, forcing him to career change will either expand his horizons, or reinforce his trenchant ideology. If the latter, he will probably never be elected to office again. Best case result for Canada!
As for Mr. Singh, I’m sorry to see him go, especially in light of the credible death threats. Family comes first, so he made the right, if painful, decision. Politically, I think the NDP now have the chance to pivot to the center. Heather McPherson, Rachel
Notley (if she starts learning French), or bring Tom Mulcair back.
Given the truism of Canadian politics – campaign from left or right, but govern from centre – why not just plant your ideology in the centre from the first face off and stay there until you win the cup?
Prime Minister Carney – my choice (and many others) for dealing with that orange chaos shit gibbon in the excited states. We will always be a trading nation, that is inherent to our geography & culture. We do need, however, to massively diversify our infrastructure & trading partners though. We need far less reliance on a single partner. That will be Mr. Carney’s statesmanship test.
fyi
Nitter is a mask so that anyone who wants to read Twitter that doesn’t have it, can still see posts
If the NDP is to survive at all, maybe coming across less as Liberal-lite would come to mind of those with a say in the party apparatus.
Finally, Premier Smith has been released and allowed to speak by the men she reports to. Things are about to get interesting.
Who was it who once said that we “elect the people we deserve?”
Thanks for staying up so late, David, and banging out a column in OT.
Three glimmers of hope for this old man:
* The loony People’s Party of Canada were buried.
* The Progressive Conservatives are going to spend the next little while fighting amongst themselves.
* The rump of seven NDP members could still mathematically play a crucial role for ongoing governance by the Libs. Also the Party’s next leader could come from Edmonton in the form of Heather MacPherson.
I’m looking for straws here, but we don’t want to be too glum, do we?
This isn’t the first time this happened for the NDP. And Jack Layton pulled them out of that slump. (Not a huge Layton fan but he was a nice guy, not too bright but very sociable).
Imagine someone charismatic that’s an actual Lunchbox Lefty. Might not win but it would be a helluva show and shove things at partly away from the endless push for privatization that keeps occurring with both the libs and cons.
And could we *please*, for the love of all that’s holy, get a party that’s pushing for some actual rent-geared-to-income social housing? A LOT OF IT. Preferably council estates where you vote in your own landlord and some co-ops?
The parties keep pushing home ownership but there’s an awful lot of people on the street and even more that are so underhoused or in precarious housing circumstances including seniors, disabled and young families with children that would be more than happy to vote for someone, anyone, that will just address this crying need.
Housing is everyone’s biggest monthly expense and if we can get the cost of it down, we’ll go a long way to solving a ton of social and financial problems faced by many of our neighbours.
Will someone please let Danielle Smith know that 57 percent of registered electors in Alberta did not vote for the Federal Conservatives before she starts snapping her fingers at the Federal Liberals.
I know I’m being mean Jaundiced, but I wish I was a fly on the wall when Dixie Dani and Carney have their showdown.
It’ll make the OK Corral shootout look like the Teddy Bear’s picnic.
Then we can watch the Wicked Witch of the West melt, publicly.
100 percent right David. It’s early in the day and Alberta’s fuhrer has released a nasty insult to the country with a dishonest opening of a congratulation to our pm.
I hope you are right about her fallout. Having the second biggest liar in our politics thrown out would be nice. If only we could see pppants gone too… though last night his fake smile during his speech made me laugh like an episode of Veep.
As a bit of a math nerd and a strong proponent for Proportional Representation, the numbers for yesterday’s election would be the following, with a cfew caveats. [Caveat 1: not every vote has yet to be counted; caveat 2: these are nation-wide numbers, not provincial; caveat 3: these numbers do not follow all variations of PR, like MMR of New Zealand; caveat 4: like some systems around the world for PR, only those parties that garnered at least 5% of the vote get seats].
Liberals: 154 seats.
Conservatives: 145 seats.
Bloc Quebecois: 22 seats.
NDP: 22 seats.
Much to my personal dismay, Elizabeth May would not be in Parliament.
But, if we did have a fair electoral system, all these numbers would change, probably for the better!!
Thank you for doing this work. I find it very interesting to note that that’s pretty much to make up of the last parliament. A narrow majority of seats by the combined LPC and NDP, corresponding to their very majority of the popular vote. As polarization appears to an extra ably increase we cannot afford first past post anymore. We cannot permit radical changes of One Direction or another to be made on the basis of a shift from 39 to 41% support.
Now that Poilievre is no longer a sitting MP we will see if he really is a man of the people. You have to be a sitting MP to live in Stornaway. The only way he can continue the opulence of living in the taxpayer funded 19 room mansion is if the new leader of the opposition gives him permission. Being a man of the people as he claims he should insist on moving out of there within days.
If and when some toady gives up his seat for Poilievre to run in a by-election, it would be so sweet if the Prime Minister does a slow walk coming up with a date, like Danielle Smith does.
@Jaundiced:
Be even funnier if PP lost…TWICE.
If that happens, I’ll share my bottle of Irish Cream with you.
If that happens I’ll share my bottle of 20 year old Bruichladdich with you all.
On the plus side, it’s been radio silence from Skippy for the first time in years. Finally someone was able to get him to STFU!
Firth, yer now my BFF. I’m washing my best glass out, right now.
And yes PP’s silence is deafening. I think he’s trying not to get ousted from his own party by saying anything stupid which he can’t do if the cameras are running.
Jaundiced eye— opening snippet from the Ottawa Citizen if anyone wants to follow up…
“Pierre Poilievre didn’t just lose his seat. He also likely lost his home.
Ottawa– before Pierre Poilievre finds a new seat in the House of Commons, he will likely have to find a new home.
….around 3:30 elections Canada reported that the Liberals Bruce Fanjoy captured Poilievre’s Ottawa area riding by about 4300 votes.
The loss complicates Poilievre’s announcement that he plans to stay on as party leader.
But it also throws a wrench into his living situation.
Shortly after he was elected leader of the Conservative Party, Poilievre moved into Stornoway, the taxpayer-funded official residence of the leader of the opposition.
But according to the ‘Official Residences Act’ , Stornoway is reserved for the ” leader of the opposition in the House of Commons”. Since Poilievre lost his seat, he is no longer recognized as the official leader of the opposition.
That means that in all likelihood , Poilievre and his family will have to move out to make space for the next leader in the House of Commons.
He also loses out on a $215,000 annual budget for residence staff and services and a $2000 annual vehicle allocation.”
(Where’s Candice when you need her? )
————————
To get a seat , he has to get a caucus member willing to give up their seat, and he has to wait (up to 6mths) for the PM to call a by-election. (Sound familiar Marlaina?)
In the meantime, if he has to move back into one of his rental homes, he will have to give his tenants “notice”, because I’m sure it wouldn’t look good in the media if he became one of THOSE landlords.
Either way, he will get to join the common people: no more private chef, no more chauffeur. Plus right now the Atlantic Conservatives want a say on party leadership, I’m guessing because of Jenni’s supposed choices for candidates. So again, don’t go assuming Skippy, you’ve basically lost the tight control you had over your caucus as leader, now you have to go Hat in hand. Maybe they want a change as well after 20 yrs.
Finally, I’ve been following Bruce Fanjoy’s campaign for some time. He has been campaigning in the Carelton riding basically for 2yrs now. This isn’t an ‘out of the blue ‘ or should I say red happening. He’s been knocking on doors with around 500 volunteers, talking to people, including PP’s regular supporters and they agreed with him on one ironic campaign issue
“Time for a change ”
No more being taken for granted, but also they didn’t like his American style politics creeping into Canada.
So, I’m giving Mr Fanjoy a well deserved ‘hussah’ for a job well done.
As Brittlestar said, (paraphrasing) it’s Shakespearan that the man who riled the crowds with anger etc., gets taken out by a man with literally Joy in his name. Lovin’ it. Lol.
@Randi:
Be fun if PP was homeless. Might give the cons a deep think about when Harper and Harris gutted housing for the working class and started a disaster tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of citizens increasingly suffering and has yet to be addressed–by either major party.
My fav Fanjoy moment came when someone tweeted to him, “You have no chance to beat Polliviere” and Fanjoy tweeted back the old Pierre Trudeau saw, “Just Watch Me”.
We *do* need change. Pretty sure we won’t get the kind the working class needs from Carney but at least we’ve avoided torching ourselves like the dumpster fire south of us.
B: If he’s homeless, wouldn’t that be grounds to drag him in for involuntary drug treatment? DJC
OH SNAP…lol
And Thanks for providing the link to the story…
I saw what you did there, David. :p
If Canadians rejected maga north, it was not by comfortable margins. Conservative strength in the Atlantic Provinces, Ontario, British Columbia, and the absolutely lost causes that are Alberta and Saskatchewan do not bode well for the future. And I mean the fairly immediate future as in the next election unless the liberals can effectively counter the massive disinformation campaign that’s about to overwhelm social media as it did for Mr.Trudeau, all will be lost in the next election. They’ll come up with 15 or 20 bullshit charges and paper the walls with them. The outlines can already be seen. “Did you know he’s Irish? Irish, I tells ya! What more proof do you need?”
Hm, maybe give him the keys to 24 Sussex Drive where he will be in the company of a better class of rats.
Yes, nobody got all of what they wanted in the election results. Poilievre did his best to sound victorious and defiant, but losing his own seat just a few hours later sure puts a damper on his moral victory lap.
How the leaders did is a good indicator of how the election went. Carney and the BQ leader won their seats as did Green co leader May, but the CPC and NDP leaders lost theirs. I thought Singh’s speech was quite gracious, striking a good balance betwern perseverance and humility.
It seems like the CPC leader has no intention of fading away, but without the public platform of being an MP he may find it harder to get his messages across.
If its any consolation, Canadians may have learned something from the US’s current failure in separation of powers. In a minority government, the legislature is a powerful check on the exercise of excess executive power.
Correct me if I am wrong, but do our Supreme Alberta Leader’s proposed changes to referendum legislation make a referendum to rid the province of her and/or her rump UCP party also easier?
If it does, I will gladly tramp the highlands and the lowlands of Alberta to find the few Albertans necessary to put the question of her leadership, nay, should I say her seat in the legislature, to the question.