The announcement of Justin Trudeau’s resignation plan yesterday leaves Alberta’s United Conservative Party with the conundrum of what to do about the timing of the Edmonton-Strathcona by-election, in which Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi intends to run to replace his predecessor, Rachel Notley.
Given the timing of Ms. Notley’s resignation last month, the by-election will have to be held before June 30, so Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party Government, which gets to set the by-election date, can’t just put it off forever.
Meanwhile, it’s understood that the federal Liberals will try to wait until they have selected a new leader to replace Mr. Trudeau and then call a swift election in the spring while there’s still hope for a bit of dead-cat bounce in their dismal polls – not enough to win the election, maybe, but possibly enough to stanch the electoral bleeding.
So whether the UCP likes it or not, it’s now quite possible the federal general election and the provincial by-election will have to be fought in the same approximate time frame.
They probably don’t like it. For all the UCP’s posturing about how Mr. Trudeau should call an election right now, they’re loyally relying on federal Conservative talking points for that blather.
From the UCP’s strategic perspective, it would have been better if the federal election were delayed until October, close to the province-wide municipal election, when many Albertans’ well-known irrational hatred for the Trudeau family could have been put to work to help them unseat Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi, a former federal Liberal cabinet minister.
Well, that’s water under the bridge now.
Meanwhile, Edmonton-Strathcona, as the provincial riding is called, and hyphen-free Edmonton Strathcona, the federal riding that entirely surrounds it, have their own political dynamic.
These days, both ridings are NDP Country. Ms. Notley, first elected as MLA in 2008, was re-elected with ease in 2012, 2015, and 2019. In 2021, MP Heather McPherson had the strongest mandate in any NDP riding in Canada.
Both provincial and federal NDPs have well-organized and competent electoral machines in the two ridings – often, naturally, utilizing the same volunteers to get out the riding’s solid NDP vote.
So, realistically, federal and provincial Conservative parties – which also share a cadre of right-wing volunteers – don’t have much hope of success regardless of the timing of the provincial by-election.
And anyway, Ms. Smith is likely to be too focused on using public resources to campaign for the federal Conservatives to want to have to worry about a by-election in a safe Edmonton NDP riding that Mr. Nenshi is likely to win anyway.
Still, if there’s any potential for monkeying around, the UCP will monkey around. That’s just the kind of party they are.
If there were a chance they could use voter enthusiasm for the federal Conservatives in Edmonton to embarrass the NDP in the inner-city riding, for example, that might tempt them to time the by-election to line up as closely as possible with the federal general election.
Even if Mr. Nenshi only won by a noticeably smaller margin than Ms. Notley used to do, that at least could be touted as a victory of sorts – or provide an opportunity for old-fashioned mockery and abuse, anyway.
On the other hand, that kind of timing could end up benefitting Ms. McPherson, whose persistent patch of orange on the Alberta electoral map unreasonably irritates federal Conservatives.
So, will the UCP get the by-election out of the way quickly on the assumption Mr. Nenshi will probably win anyway and leave their volunteers free to focus on going after Ms. McPherson?
Or will they hope some of the disdain for Mr. Trudeau so common in Alberta can be made to stick to both Mr. Nenshi and Ms. McPherson and try to line the elections up?
Alternatively, do they try to leave it till after the federal election – the timing of which, alas for them, they don’t control – to keep the NDP volunteers double-tasking as long as possible?
What will they do? Beats me! But for the moment, it probably beats them, too.
Meanwhile, at a news conference yesterday at which Ms. Smith defiantly announced plans to double Alberta’s oil production, the premier crankily accused Mr. Trudeau of “one of the most irresponsible and selfish acts of a government in Canadian history” for not calling an election to the maximum advantage of Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives.
After all, she seemed to argue, the delay in electing a government with a mandate may exacerbate the damage from grievous attack on the Canadian economy planned by her great friend and political model Donald Trump! Whether or not there’s any justification for her argument, you have to admit that’s kind of a weird flex.
Don’t worry, though, the UCP will soon figure out what is likely to squeeze the most days of pathological rage and hatred for the prime minister from their party base and do that.
After all, that fury is apparently the only thing that gives meaning to the lives of many UCP voters. And – who knows? – without Mr. Trudeau to keep them in a continual state of agitation, they might drift off into unproductive speculation about New Jersey drone sightings and weird English fog!
F-Trudeau flags, once a leading Alberta industry, set to go the way of the beaver pelt
Canada may be broken, as Mr. Poilievre keeps saying, but by God it’s been a great few years for the makers and sellers of F*#k Trudeau flags, banners, hats, and bumper stickers.
For close to a decade now, the makers of offensive flags and other paraphernalia have done a land-office trade in Alberta.
Now that thriving industry is about to go the way of the beaver pelt, which, as oil is now, was once the principal export of this patch of real estate. As will likely be the case with oil, Alberta never ran out of beaver pelts – although it’s hard to blame Justin Trudeau for that.
So yesterday was not just a sad day for Canada’s soon-to-depart prime minister, but for the captains of Alberta’s flag industry as well, which is sure to be flagging soon.
Well, all good things come to an end, and eventually all tattered flags must all come down the pole or off the back of the rusty pickup truck.
As University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young observed yesterday on her Substack, that’s going to have to happen soon in Alberta, too – but not just yet.
When it does, though, someone will need to be blamed. Alberta will blame Trudeau, who obviously hates our flag industry and wants to destroy it.
Notley for Lib leader IF she changes her awful advisors from the last election. And Hundreds of Beavers is what will happen to the USA if Trump tries to annex us.
Ok, everyone calm down. Trump, who is a bully DOES NOT have the ability to annex Canada, even if he wanted to. With what!? All the weapons they already gave to ukraine and Israel? He’s going to fire nukes at Toronto ? He’s a bully, it’s a bluff, Doug Ford (heaven help us) is the only person I’ve seen respond to this in any sort of intelligent way, with his counter offer of us annexing Minnesota and Minneapolis, it’s ridiculous. He’s not going to invade Greenland or Panama either, Probably try to do something in Mexico, heaven help him if he tries. Canadians used to be tougher, an American president would not have inspired such chicken little behaviour in our political class in days gone by, then again in days gone by we had leaders.
I suspect that we will be seeing the ‘F*ck’ Trudeau flags and other merch for a long time to come. People have spent a lot of money on these and won’t likely give up displaying them as they have become part of their identity.
I wonder if an entrepreneurial progressive person will start mass producing F@#K Poilievre flags, banners, hats and bumper stickers when the time comes? While they are at it they could make some F@#K Smith flags as a side hustle. Apropos of nothing, why does the CBC include that dufus Rick Bell in panel discussions? I will give Bell credit though as he is not in the same league as CBC panelists Fred DeLorey and James Moore for non stop conservative talking points. DeLorey and Moore use more hyperbole in their con talking points than the late Lyin’ Brian Mulroney could dream of using.
JE: I doubt there will be as much of a market for FP flags because progressives, so called, tend to be more polite than the new lumpen proletariat. DJC
I will buy one. He needs to hear it.
I agree. I have the FP sentiment, but I have absolutely no interest in flying a profanity to express the feeling.
The in this house liberals? Yeah I can’t see them putting anything other than a CoExist bumper sticker on their Prius
I don’t know about the flags, but I ordered my little orange lawn sign early this time; the party ran out of them last election and I didn’t get mine! Anyone else enjoying Carol Off’s summary of the whole sorry mess: ‘At a Loss for words; conversation in the age of rage’? Course I WOULD like reading Carol Off; I love all of CBC’s kitschy, badly acted oh so consciously DEI series that celebrate glorious Canadian landscapes too. SkyMed and Heartland and North of North; long live The Beachcomers! And then there’s that study that puts numbers to the negative effects of the oil and gas industry on Albertans’ health, out of an eastern university, written up by a Chinese-Canadian trans reporter. That’s got to fry Ms Smith and Mr Poilievre’s eyeballs. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/oil-gas-pollution-health-st-fx-study-1.7425314
Well, really isolated, rural Albertans bear the brunt of the effect. Here I thought it was the rye ergot or selenium in the water.
De digression en digression, as you might put it.
I’m sure the UCP can find a political staffer to run in Strathcona if needed. Volunteers for both parties can be drawn from across the City. The UCP strategy will likely consist of littering every public boulevard and parcel of vacant land in Strathcona with election signs. The point being that there’s plenty of time to get the byelection out of the way before a Spring federal election.
I can understand Smith’s anger about Trudeau’s resignation. She is about to lose her best political asset and favorite political piñata, and she knows it. The end is near.
Likewise, Federal Conservative politicians and their mainstream media allies are also sounding increasingly unhinged as if their heads might pop off. Trudeau was their best asset too, without him winning big is not as certain. Chances are they will probably still win, but they might actually have to talk about policy and really work at it, not just continue to endlessly repeat mindless slogans like Axe the Tax. However, it really is their own fault, for the last few years they focused on relentlessly attacking Trudeau and it worked. Who knew the Liberals might get decide to another leader and there may not be enough time to demonize them, as it may not known who it is until just before the election. And to top it off, no one knows exactly when that election will be.
So all conservatives are in a quandary. Smith’s normal inclinations likely are to delay the by-election as long as possible. But it might also be better sooner before Trudeau is gone. Oh, what to do? It turns out there are some things our current Premier, who likes to control everything, just can’t control.
How about repurposing those stickers and flags to show disapproval for the orange tyrant? Only a few letters difference between Trudeau and Trump… (or are the Trudeau haters also Trump worshipers who would gladly have us become the next Puerto Rico?)
Hurtin: Actually, you know, orange flags that say “F[MAPLE LEAF]CK TRUMP” are an excellent idea. I will work on that. DJC
Tell me where to buy one!
Last summer I was passing a local shop selling flags and banners and stopped in. There were a number of far right paraphernalia displayed. I asked if they had any Antifa flags. It woke them up and I had their attention, but no they didn’t have any.
Smith is screaming that Trudeau MUST call a Federal election immediately. She will, of course, set the Alberta byelection date when it benefits her. How ironic!
Hey forget this by-election , I’m old enough to remember when she refused to run a by-election in Calgary at the same time she parachuted into her riding, because the NDP was projected to take the seat. Danielle Smith cares about Danielle Smith, and that’s about it.
The timing of the by-election will be very interesting, given that Dingy Smith and her UCP cronies did an excessive amount of cat calling the NDP MLA’s about where is Nenshi and why doesn’t one of the NDP MLA’s step down to make way for their leader, so they could have a go at him in the Legislature.
OA: They have no shame. I mean, literally, they have no shame. They cannot be shamed. DJC
Since Parliament is prorogued until Mar 24, no federal election will be called until after that. As a result, gerrymandering attempts aside, the provincial by-election (28) days) could be called right away and it would be finished long before the calling of a federal election. It will be really annoying if Danielle Smith drags her feet on calling the by-election, then uses the federal election as an excuse not to call the by-election within the six month requirement. Ms. Smith broke the six month law when she refused to call a by-election when Doug Schweitzer stepped down in Calgary-Bow, so we have no reason to believe she won’t do it again.
Trump’s tariffs will have eliminated Alberta jobs by the time any elections happen here. How will Dani explain partying at Trump’s inauguration at our expense? Who does she think she is — one of the American oligarchs, or just a common traitor to the people of Alberta and Canada?
Of course, Donald Trump of the Americas might have invaded our country by then and changed its name, so all of this could be moot. Dani might be the governor of Panama. Perfect! This is why she must get to the inauguration, even if the American dictator sends troops to our border the next day. Personal profit before everything in the Trump era. Maybe she could also be governor of whatever Canada is called on January 21. Bow down to the Magnificent Dani-ficent, the greatest-ever leader of the 51st state. Or will Steve fight her for that one? Whatever!
During the so-called Convoy Protest, I wondered where all those flags came from and so quickly. Who was making them in those numbers?
Jason: I know the actual answer to this question from my experience as an employee of the labour union movement. There are many companies in Canada that work through local independent flag shops to design and manufacture custom flags. You can walk in with an idea for a flag and have something designed quite quickly. They’ll also sell you a pole to run it up if that’s what you need. So when you see CUPE, or AUPE, or UNA, or HSAA flags flying on a picket line or at a rally, that’s usually how they came to be. That will be essentially what happened with the convoy crowd. There were lots of designs at first, but by the time of the Ottawa Occupation, the black F-Trudeau design predominated, probably more by popular demand than marketing savvy. Certainly flag makers made a lot of money from that, and some middlepeople probably did too. Seriously, the convoy grifters must’ve thought, if you can’t scam your supporters, who can you scam? DJC