The Prime Minister’s Office in Ottawa surely isn’t the only Canadian venue with more than a whiff of panic in the air these days.
Consider the likely conversation in Premier Danielle Smith’s office in the Alberta Legislature in Edmonton.
According to Environment Canada, periods of snow are forecast in Ottawa today with more flurries tonight. What the hell is the United Conservative Party’s strategic brain trust going to do if Justin Trudeau decides to take a walk in the stuff?
Conservative Alberta politicians have made a cottage industry out of blaming everything bad that’s happened in Canada on members of the Trudeau family for more than 40 years now. It’s pretty much an involuntary reflex, requiring no thought, and it still seems to work.
Plus, ever since Gerry Butts quit as Trudeau the Younger’s chief political advisor in February 2019, the prime minister has been obligingly painting targets on his own back at which Alberta Conservatives can aim their pot-shots.
Even with the clock running out on the Liberal Government and the possibility looming of a blowout for the erstwhile Natural Governing Party on the scale of the 1993 election’s rout of Kim Campbell’s Conservatives, it’s hard to imagine a replacement for Mr. Trudeau who would make as good a whipping boy, or girl, from the UCP perspective.
Mark Carney? Well, he could turn out to be another Michael Ignatieff, one supposes, but he’s obviously smart. As a politician, as opposed to an inscrutable central banker, his talents are not fully known. But he seems to have the Conservatives worried.
And even if he was as bad as Professor Ignatieff – who headed back to Harvard after the 2011 federal election, just like the Conservatives predicted he would – how would that be worse than the fall for which Mr. Trudeau appears to be headed?
Chrystia Freeland? If she manages to finagle her you’re-fired/I-quit moment into a crack at the PMO, we’re soon going to learn she’s basically the Liz Cheney of Canada! Indeed, if you’ve been paying attention, that’s been obvious for years.
To channel Freddy Lee “Ted” Morton, Firewall Manifesto signatory and worst premier Alberta never had, Ms. Freeland would be every federal Conservative’s worst nightmare, a Liberal so far to the right that Pierre Poilievre would look woke!
And if Mr. Trudeau surprises everyone and asks the Governor General to call an election, the apparently inevitable ascent of Mr. Poilievre to the PMO would potentially be even worse news for the separatists in Ms. Smith’s office, if not for the ones expected to show up momentarily in Quebec City.
Do you seriously think Mr. Poilievre would let the UCP pilfer the Canada Pension Plan unopposed if he wants to retain any hopes of being re-elected, no matter how massive his majority turns out to be?
Remember, it took a Nixon to go to China. It might take a Poilievre to finally stomp on Ms. Smith.
Meanwhile, belligerent joint statements from the Premier’s Office continue, although readers will notice that yesterday’s failed to mention Mr. Trudeau by name. Nerves?
Edmonton police commissioner drops plan to work from Portugal
Well, so long John McDougall, outgoing chair of the Edmonton Police Commission who sought to serve his last two years on the police oversight and governance body from Portugal, known for its gentle breezes and generous tax laws.
The Internet may work in Portugal, but it turns out that Mr. McDougall won’t – at least not for Edmonton’s putative “guardian of public trust.”
After sparking a brouhaha with his plan to Zoom in from Portugal, Mr. McDougall said yesterday he would resign immediately. “It is clear that my residency would be an unwelcome distraction from the important work of the commission, which is not fair to the citizens who rely on us to provide governance and oversight of the Edmonton Police Service,” he said in a statement.
Like his change of address, this decision also seems either not to have been communicated to or not understood by Emergency Services Minister Mike Ellis, who earlier in the day told media he expected Mr. McDougall to resign after he’d officially moved to Portugal.
At any rate, the prospect of a provincially appointed Alberta official Zooming in from the Iberian Peninsula while the snow flies in Alberta appears to have been too much even for the cheekily entitled UCP.
Lethbridge-West by-election is today
Today is the day of the provincial by-election in Lethbridge-West, held by the NDP until the resignation of former MLA Shannon Phillips last summer.
The NDP is favoured to win, according to some pollsters, but it’s said here that’s no sure thing.
Both parties’ candidates have strong ties to the southern Alberta city’s civic politics – the NDP’s Rob Miyashiro is a former city councillor and the UCP’s John Middleton-Hope is a current one. Bet on Layton Veverka of the Alberta party, the only other candidate in the race, to finish in third place.
The by-election is bound be seen as a test of Leader Naheed Nenshi’s low-bridging approach to the leadership of the NDP, even if the outcome masks other strengths and weaknesses of the Opposition Party’s strategy.
Pierre Poilievre happened to be in the CPC when the very pricey income trust boondoogle transpired, and people lost their retirement savings. That was $35 billion. People felt betrayed, and were not happy with that outcome. Danielle Smith is still playing games with a provincial pension plan.
Pierre Poilievre will do the job destruction that Reformers and phony Conservatives are well known for, by laying off thousands of people employed by the CBC. What’s that going to achieve?
It’s not the Liberal’s fault that these pseudo Conservatives and Reformers in Alberta, such as Ralph Klein, didn’t collect the proper oil and tax rates of Peter Lougheed, costing us hundreds of billions of dollars in the process, did so many pricey shenanigans that cost us billions of dollars more, left us with damaged public healthcare, harmed public education, higher utility costs, and left us with an orphan well mess that is an astronomical cost of $260 billion. It’s not much different under the UCP, because more pricey boondoogles are happening, that even cost us billions of dollars, the public healthcare and public education systems are suffering, while other costs rise so much, and many Albertans struggle.
The UCP sure has a poor communications team if they don’t know what the people they appoint say they are doing.
It will be interesting to see the outcome of this by-election in Lethbridge West, given how preoccupied people are with Christmas. Danielle Smith wanted it that way.
ATW this week with Matt Taibbi and Walter Kirn (episode aired 12/15/24) is covering the whole episode in Ottawa much better than any Canadian media. Well with watching.
Trudeaus seem to need a wily Cape Bretoner in their corner to successfully navigate the perils of this world. Gerald Butts, whose family hailed from the coal mines of Cape Breton, was a college chum of JT. Trudeau the elder had Allan J MacEachen, the Minister of Everything, during his glory years.
David: In addition to John Middleton-Hope’s ties to civic politics in Lethbridge, he is also a former chief of the local police force. The latter may be a plus for a candidate in many Alberta communities, but the Lethbridge service has been anything but and a candidate’s leadership of the force would not be something placed front and centre on the campaign’s promotional material.
Quebec. The UCP will shift the blame from Trudeau to Quebec.
Dave is a shrewd political commentator, whose analysis is found at https://daveberta.substack.com/ – we should pay attention to what he has to say. He is almost certainly right. DJC
Nailed it.
Hatred of Trudeau is a modest green shoot on the towering poison-tree that is Alberta’s hatred for Québec, and for “French Canadians” more generally. I think its roots must lie in the anti-catholicism of the degenerate form of Christianity that followed the Confederate renegades into southern Alberta.
The unexpected drama in Ottawa has over shadowed almost everything else, so a good time for the UCP to quietly fix their mess with the Edmonton Police Commissioner from Portugal. Smith loves a distraction and she didn’t even have to create this one. For Conservatives like her, Trudeau is the gift that keeps giving so far, but it may be the last Christmas for that. Even Smith seems hesitant to turn Trudeau’s current turmoil into her political piñata yet again.
Freeland may be able to turn sympathy into a way to take over the Liberal leadership, but I doubt it. Frida is Cheney (not Ford) tough, but likeable, not so much. She is also far to close to the legacy of the current Federal government to be able to distance herself from it now.
Yes, the Conservatives are getting ready to whip out the Just Vitsiting ads against Carney and he does worry them. Of course their problem is he has actually been in Canada most of the time, except that UK stint. But his problem is he is still pondering sticking his toe in the political water while Poilievre seems to have been swimming in it since he was a child.
But Trudeau seems to have become the lightning rod for all the political discontent in the country, in large part due to the unrelenting efforts of Poilievre and his gang. And Trudeau has been around too long now anyways, yes over exposure is a real thing. At this point Liberals need a tough, competent but somewhat pleasant leader to try save the furniture. So maybe a Leblanc?
I can’t see Trudeau staying much longer, but it is always hard to get the lingering guest at the Christmas party who wants to stay, to leave. But if he continues to try hanging on too long, his Christmas and birthday gift this year will be disappointing.
No doubt, the plan going forward for both Smith and Skippy P. is to continue blaming Trudeau in perpetuity for everything, including children working in coal mines. There is a precedent for this perpetual blaming as I still hear Albertans whining about the National Energy Policy which by the way was ratified by Saint Peter Lougheed.
One thing is certain at the moment, and only one thing. The Edmonton Police Commission won’t have to worry about Russian captains of Chinese cargo ships dragging anchor near the transatlantic internet cables. What a relief.
Pierre Poilievre currently enjoys a lead of roughly 20% in the polls. I do wonder how much of that 20% is motivated by a liking of Mr. Poilievre, and how much is just a desire to get rid of Justin Trudeau. I have felt for some time that both gentlemen are the biggest motivation to vote for the other guy.
It will be really interesting to see what happens if the Liberal Party gets a new leader, which would cause the CPC to lose their biggest asset. To some extent, this is why Pierre Poilievre keeps whining to call an election – he does not want to have to go up against a new Liberal leader.
Poilievre also badly wants an election before the US gets the DTs.
“What the hell is the United Conservative Party’s strategic brain trust going to do if Justin Trudeau decides to take a walk in the stuff?….”
And Pierre Poilievre’s too. He’s been bashing Justin Trudeau and faulting him with everything wrong in Canada for years.
Who would be surprised if it was actually JT who put the “51st-state” bug in the Orange One’s ear on that mythic phone call?—the one that happened “within 15 seconds” of the 25% tariff threat, Trump later boasted.
Everyone knows it is exactly like tRump to sloganize people’s names, appropriate someone else’s words or idea and habitually brag in cringeworthy detail how smart he is to have invented it himself: “People are saying I’m maybe the first—probably the time first ever,” being one of his usual refrains.
Next after the phone call, the Prime Minister invited himself for dinner at MAGA Logo, knowing tRump could not resist showing off how he can make Canada grovel. Then, all that remained for Trudeau to do was enjoy the overpriced, mediocre food in the gaudy dining hall—where even the gold-lacquered putti is faux— and wait for it. And, sure enough…
…“51st state—Justin could be the governor!” Everyone laughs, including the PM, glancing—it was reported, “nervously,”—at his Minister of Everything. LeBlanc chuckles in the affirmative, unnoticed, except by JT, while the presidunce basks in what he thinks is acknowledgment of his rapier wit.
That done, JT’s mission next flies back to Ottawa and he convenes a first ministers meeting, confident every premier would prioritize. None would miss it, anyway, but the optics were still good for Trudeau: so far, he looked on the ball and in control.
Be that as it might, his rapid response meant news media were still catching their breath by the time the PM was seen to be rallying a unified team and leading the charge against tRump’s threatened attack on Canada.
Trudeau then told reporters he instructed the premiers to speak with one voice, knowing full well they wouldn’t: within hours they are all reacting in their own respective directions and talking out of school to news media. And JT ticks another box.
None of this is good for PP, and it shows: even he, the monotonous droner of stock slogans and insults, looks like he’s reading from a script when he says Justin Trudeau has lost control of the government —except it’s not PP’s own, contemptuously too-familiar script—which is what makes it conspicuous. It was and still is being written by ‘guess-who.’
Who’s got the cards? The HoC is recessed for holidays, everybody’s calling for Trudeau to step down, but the non-confidence threat and Freeland’s resignation and tRump’s riffing on “Governor Trudeau” are best synthesized by considering that all of it might be well anticipated. Heavens! —pundits are still warning he might go for a 4th term! In fact, it’s just Justin following Ockham, finding the simplest solutions in preparation for stepping aside and allowing a leadership contest to replace him.
Despite speculation gone wild, especially since Freeland resigned, he still controls when things happen: he can prorogue to stall, he can influence who his successor will be, he can fire and hire. And. Still, nobody knows his mind. I’m gonna guess January 20th figures significantly.
While JT’s playing his cards when and how he wants, pundits and partisan rivals alike are in a dither; they can’t see his hand. Meanwhile the more people are talking about him, good or bad, the more tRump is tempted to put his boot in it. His CPC protégé also copies his same habituation and has already come perilously close to looking like the leader of tRump’s 5th-column instead of the Loyal Canadian Opposition. The premiers are enticing tRump to engage with them (heck, Danielle would do JT one better and invite herself to take up MAGA Logo residence) so it probably won’t be long before he starts calling PP the future “governor” of the 51st American state. Considering how bad that would be for PP’s psephological prospects —and how good for JT’s agenda for his own Liberals and, he can always claim, for the country —can there be any doubt that the PM is smiling as cameras and reporters trail his every stroll in the snow? Like his dad: he’s loving every delicious minute of it.
All is not static, but it is yet largely schematic and without anchor or proportion. Thus it hardly matters by how much or how fast it happens, but the instant CPC numbers start to wane and Liberal numbers start to wax—presumably when Trudeau announces he will step down—the whole new ball game commences. Ten months to go before the statutory term limit but I bet there won’t be extra innings.
It’s like it writes itself. But does it?
Before voters decide to toss out the Liberals/Trudeau, they might want to think back to all the “fun” Canada went through while Harper was P.M. Before that we had the Mulroney years and Stevie Cameron out lined his reign of error nicely in, On the take, The Mulroney Years. Of the two I’d suggest Harper was more dangerous. He passed 9 pieces of legislation which contravened the Constitution, he had been told it would, and then the Supreme Court bounced all of his lovely ideas.
How will the UCP deal with their whipping boy, if and when he leaves the Liberals? Easy. Attach anyone who steps into the role as another “spend and tax” Trudeau Liberal. But it’s not the UCP or the Cons that are so much the concern as it is the corporate media who have been in a frenzy of anti-Trudeau spin and rhetoric since Freeland stepped down, as if this is the first time a finance minister, or even a cabinet minister, has been at odds with a PM. The corporate media hate has reached such a feverish pitch it’s become nauseating.