Well, farewell Rachel Notley.
Yesterday marked the real end of the line for Alberta’s first – and, so far, only – NDP premier, who brought the nearly 44-year Progressive Conservative dynasty founded by Peter Lougheed to a crashing halt in 2015 only to see it replaced four years later by something considerably worse, the so-called United Conservative Party Government then led by Jason Kenney.
Ms. Notley announced on Jan. 16 this year that she would step down as leader of the NDP and the official Opposition as soon as a replacement could be found.
So with the ballots for the vote to choose her successor showing up in the mailboxes of NDP members this week and the final day of Alberta’s spring legislative session wrapping up yesterday – probably not so coincidentally on the first anniversary of the re-election of the UCP as government and the election by more than just party members of Danielle Smith as premier – Ms. Notley really has very little of importance left to do.
Yes, she’ll hang around for a few more weeks as the lamest sort of lame-duck leader until the final farewell parties can be organized and the tribute speeches drafted.
And it remains unclear what Ms. Notley will do after the winner of the party’s leadership election has been revealed to the public on June 22, or what she aspires to do now that she can walk away from her 16-year career as an Alberta MLA with nothing to apologize about.
Not so long ago, the possibility that she might stick around a little longer to guide her successor from the floor of the Legislative Assembly was deemed by Alberta’s political cognoscenti as something that might easily happen.
After all, she’d kept the NDP Caucus under a tight rein since she was sworn in as premier on May 24, 2015, and it was not inconceivable that one way or another she might be tempted by the role of eminence grise like the post-prime ministerial Stephen Harper or some kind of political tandemocracy like Vladimir Putin trading jobs with Dmitry Medvedev.
But with former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi heavily favoured to win the party leadership vote, quite possibly on the first ballot, neither seems likely.
Mr. Nenshi, after all, is a person who knows his own mind and will have his own ways of doing the leadership gig, for good or for ill.
And as for hanging around while Mr. Nenshi is on the conductor’s stand to play second fiddle – or, worse, fourth trombone like poor old Joe Clark after the 1983 federal Tory leadership convention – that’s unlikely to appeal to either Ms. Notley or her most likely replacement.
So, on the balance or probabilities, it seems like it won’t be long before she resigns her seat in the Legislature and opens the way for a nomination battle more exciting than the leadership race – her Edmonton-Strathcona riding, after all, being the safest NDP seat in the province, and possibly on the planet.
I always thought that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might name Ms. Notley ambassador to some pleasant little country – Ireland, perhaps. Alas, the timing appears all wrong for another diplomatic posting for a former NDP premier so soon after the prime minister sent former B.C. premier John Horgan to the top job in the Canadian Embassy in Berlin.
Well, perhaps a pleasant academic sinecure awaits, leadership of a national advocacy organization, or just a long holiday at the cottage, but it seems unlikely Ms. Notley will disappear completely from public life the way Mr. Kenney did after the UCP base grew tired of him or Alison Redford after her removal by her PC Caucus for political sins that seem positively quaint compared to the stuff Ms. Smith gets up to now.
After all, Ms. Notley will depart a hero to New Democrats – despite some mild grumbling about the result of the 2023 election – and no longer a threat to her Conservative opponents.
Ms. Notley’s portrait already hangs on the wall of the Legislature Building in Edmonton, so, really, other than a couple of farewell fund-raisers, about all she has left to do is to collect her Order of Canada.
Alberta did not have a premier of this calibre, who deeply cared about Albertans, since Peter Lougheed. Anyone who has known Peter Lougheed, or his MLAs, would even attest that Rachel Notley was very much like he was. The betterment of Albertans was her focus, while being a proud Canadian. One of Peter Lougheed’s own MLAs, Allan Warrack, has even said that Rachel Notley has led like Peter Lougheed. What we are getting now from Danielle Smith and the UCP are an extension of Ralph Klein’s bad governance. The worst possible oil royalty rates, and very bad corporate tax rates, that lostt us billions of dollars. More very costly boondoogles, which also cost us so much money. Infrastructure is in a very poor condition. The public education system, and the public healthcare system are facing problems. There are no regards for environmental protection. We are also seeing increased rates of poverty, lost jobs, soaring crime, more expensive utility and insurance rates, municipal tax hikes, and no real help for the elderly. Democracy is treated like its a joke. The unfortunate thing is that Rachel Notley and her supporters get nasty insults thrown at them, while Danielle Smith is treated like she is a superhero. In Postmedia land, that is what we see published. Danielle Smith is rendered a saint, in the comments, and there is a desperate rehash of what Justin Trudeau did, before he was Prime Minister of Canada, and he is frowned upon. There are people who did dress up in some sort of a costume for Halloween, and they do look back and wonder about that choice. It’s nothing new.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conservative-strategist-says-blackface-scandal-caused-them-to-lose-2019-election
https://nationalpost.com/news/braid-alberta-legislature-session-wraps-contentious-bills/wcm/f8a78b7f-878b-4d77-8b59-659919ad1f3c
Congratulations Albertans for installing an NDP Government in the twenty-first century. Since 1995 our Ontario New Dem leaders have been unable to spark any excitement in the way Ms. Notley did in 2015 including the most recent person to hold the job. In Nenshi you have someone with a stronger profile than anyone here and more importantly, a chance to win.
In comparing Notley to Horgan in your speculation about possible future activities, you overlooked the former BC Premier’s actual first post-retirement gig. If the two might indeed be on parallel tracks, then I’m expecting to hear that Australian mining magnate Gina Rinehart has just named Rachel as a director of her Canadian coal subsidiary.
At this point, Notley’s future is up to her. She does not have to worry too much about her legacy, like say Kenney who has kept an unusually low profile linking his wounds, but really needs some good PR help now. After all Notley accomplished what no other Alberta NDP leader ever did. If her successor is also elected Premier part of the credit will go to her for the hard work to build and rebuild the party, if not then her accomplishment will seem even more remarkable. Either way her legacy is solid.
So perhaps for the first time in a long time she can put what she wants to do first. If she likes Ireland and there is a job opening there great. If not, she can write a book or travel, teach, spend time with family or friends. There are lots of good possibilities.
Particularly if Nenshi, who is a very experienced politician with his own clear ideas, wins Notley will be relieved of having to provide a lot of support to him.
Its not a bad way to go out and better than for most politicians. But Notley has generally managed to turn difficult and negative situations into more positive ones. So this is consistent with her political career.
It will be interesting to see who steps forward if she does also retire as an MLA. It would be a great opportunity for someone who is high profile or talented to run. So I expect that will be what happens.
Allow me to say something positive about Rachel Notley for once.
Notley will go down in history not as the lead author of TMX pipeline spills, but as a maker and breaker of political parties.
Without Notley, no glorious NDP victory in 2015.
Premier Jim Prentice wins a squeaker.
The PC party does not sink into oblivion, but totters on, despite weary legs.
Voters weary of the PCs could never fathom what worse fate was narrowly averted — in the form of Danielle Smith and the UCP. Not in Albertans’ wildest nightmares was such a prospect possible.
The PC and the Wildrose do not merge.
Jason Kenney does not come to the rescue from Ottawa.
A less extremist Wildrose remains in Opposition.
The NDP play tiddliwinks in the corner.
No Notley, no Kenney, no Smith.
Smith still loses her seat in 2015 and is banished to the airwaves.
Smith’s dwindling audience tires of her absurdist fantasies, pseudo-scientific musings, and weepy monologues (“I coulda been a contender!”). Ratings plummet, and her slot is cancelled. Replacement program TBA.
Like Sisyphus forced to roll a boulder up a hill for eternity, Smith is condemned to wash dishes forever in her restaurant.
No Notley, no Nenshi in provincial politics.
Premier Notley bought an orange Volkswagen that steers to the right. And a pipeline to fuel it.
When Notley’s car ran out of gas in 2023, the NDP stalled.
Nenshi shows up, ready to drive the vehicle forward. New paint job. Purple.
No Notley, no party for centrist passengers in the backseat (Liberals, AB Party, red PCs) to take over.
No Notley, no shift of Alberta politics to the right.
Your father’s NDP still anchors the progressive left, albeit in perpetual third place.
No name change. No break with the federal party.
Party members wake every morning to sing Singh’s praises.
Notley takes her rightful place on Suncor’s Board of Directors.
Elevated by several purple cushions, as befits royalty.
Alberta’s Pipeline Queen.
Your seething hatred of Notley is showing through again, Geoffrey. And you said you were going to keep things positive. I’ll bet you had nothing nice to say when Jack Layton died as I’m sure he was far too right wing for your tastes as well.
@djc Any rumblings about Jagmeet Singh needing replacement? Does Ms. Notley speak French?
Rachel says she doesn’t speak a morceau de la langue Francaise, and any attempt to do so by my old friend, she claims was excreable. Further she has no interest in learning by her last comment. I suspect she would be open to an Alberta trade rep position in Washington. Her mom, Sandy was an American by birth
Depart a hero, though a tragic one.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Rachel says she doesn’t speak a morceau de la langue Francaise, and any attempt to do so by my old friend, she claims was excreable. Further she has no interest in learning by her last comment. I suspect she would be open to an Alberta trade rep position in Washington. Her mom, Sandy was an American by birth
When Rachel was our premier I felt good about living here. I felt an optimism that I hadn’t felt before or since. The NDP government was not filled with saints but it was filled with some pretty honourable and ordinary folk.
The party can never be as left as I would like. Maybe that’s ok because they are about as left as Alberta can handle.
I will miss Rachel. She did a good job when times were tough and the electorate was cranky.
Rachel’s last job before being elected as an MLA was as a Labour Relations Officer with the United Nurses of Alberta. One wonders whether she resigned her position at that time, or later — or went on an indefinite Leave of Absence to run for office, meaning that when she does step down as an MLA, her job at UNA is waiting for her … if she wants it, of course. My guess is the former scenario, but I’m not in a position to rule out the latter.