The worst thing about the seemingly endless Alberta NDP leadership race isn’t that it’s boring, although it is.
It’s that the NDP Caucus in the Legislature appears to be totally distracted by it at a time the United Conservative Party Government led by Danielle Smith is running out of control, introducing anti-democratic bills almost daily, and pursing a range of dangerous and destructive anti-Canadian policies.
Naturally, the NDP’s leadership race may be part of the reason the UCP is out of control right now – the governing party’s brain trust may have concluded, why not get a bunch of real garbage legislation onto the agenda when the Opposition party is distracted by a contest important to its future?
But it also means that the same unfocused messaging and scattergun approach to critiquing the government that was adopted during the NDP’s 2023 general election campaign, when it appeared Rachel Notley might stick around as leader, is still being used now that everyone understands Ms. Notley is headed for the exit.
Let’s face it, a five- or six-line outraged mini press release sent to reporters but publicly posted nowhere about every single issue didn’t work during the 2023 election and will have even less impact now.
Whoever wins this leadership race really needs to make competent messaging and focused messages a priority for the NDP.
So, with all due respect to all of the candidates, their campaign teams and their supporters, I’m sure a heck of a lot of Alberta New Democrats will heave a sigh of relief when this is over, even if the candidate they think is the best doesn’t win.
The reason that the race is boring, of course, is that the minute former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi entered the contest, he sucked all the oxygen out of the campaign.
Well, maybe a little bit was left, but that went pffft when Rakhi Pancholi dropped out of the contest a few days later and endorsed Mr. Nenshi.
Back in February, which seems like eons ago now, a Pollara Strategic Insights survey suggested Mr. Nenshi had the best potential “to excite the NDP’s base.”
Since then, I haven’t seen any more polling of NDP-leaning voters, not to mention actual NDP members who plan to vote, although it’s always possible there’s a public opinion survey out there that’s not being publicized for one or another obvious reason.
But anecdotal evidence – viz., the folks your blogger talks to, and the folks they talk to – suggests a slam dunk for Mr. Nenshi is likely because most voting NDP members, for a variety of reasons, have decided he’s the most likely to be able to beat Premier Smith, and that beating the UCP must be the priority.
This is the coalition that Ms. Notley built after the party’s unexpected victory in 2015, and it’s the reason the NDP did as well as it did in 2023.
Die-hard traditional New Democrats cannot turn back the clock to the days the NDP was a minuscule party of conscience. If they tried, their coalition would soon evanesce, and with it the NDP’s chances of victory, and possibly even of remaining the Opposition.
Yes, as leader, Mr. Nenshi would certainly strive to turn the NDP into a big-tent progressive party, which some on the left and right would inevitably accuse of being too much like Liberals. But if you wanted to keep that from happening, that ship sailed when Captain Notley was at the helm.
The NDP is the only Opposition now and the only way to dislodge the MAGA UCP in the foreseeable future, so NDP insiders are going to have to put on their big-person pants and deal with it if they don’t get the result they want on June 22.
If the wind is really blowing Mr. Nenshi’s way within the NDP universe of voters, it doesn’t matter very much if at heart he’s not a true New Democrat – whatever that now means in Wild Rose Country – as some of his opponents complain.
If Mr. Nenshi’s support is sufficient to win on the first ballot, as seems quite possible now, it also doesn’t really matter who won last Thursday’s debate in Lethbridge – although two campaigns, former justice minister Kathleen Ganley’s and Alberta Federation of Labour President Gil McGowan’s, declared their candidate to be the winner.
Credit where credit is due, Ms. Ganley has made some substantial and detailed policy proposals – overhauling the Alberta Energy Regulator and raising the minimum wage, for example.
And Mr. McGowan might have been the only one on stage Thursday talking about how to reach Albertans outside of the NDP bubble. After all, the NDP grew dramatically through Rachel Notley’s decade as leader. Still, it would be foolish to suggest the party doesn’t still have many miles to go to topple the UCP.
Former health minister Sarah Hoffman also advocates substantive policies, including taking meaningful action on climate change and making a real priority of ending the housing crisis. Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Jodi Calihoo Stonehouse attracted attention more for her charisma than her policy ideas.
Mr. Nenshi’s opponents mostly complained, in the words of Jim Storrie at The Progress Report, that the front runner “still isn’t making policy commitments.”
After the debate, there was an apparent consensus the opponents had tried mainly to differentiate themselves from the pack while appearing competent and credible.
Given the format of any multi-candidate debate, that wouldn’t have been easy at any time. All the more so when the front-runner is a mild-mannered and genial centrist.
But Mr. Nenshi carried the highest expectations, and mostly met them or came close enough it didn’t matter.
Ms. Ganley got in the best shot of the night, managing to paint the Great Purple Hope as a fair-weather New Democrat, asking him if he would run for MLA if he weren’t the leader. In response, Mr. Nenshi waffled.
But any candidate should be expected to low-bridge a campaign like this if they are far enough ahead to ensure a comfortable first-ballot victory.
Why risk giving your opponents a target to aim at if you don’t have to?
The second NDP leadership debate is scheduled to take place at the BMO Centre in Calgary on May 11.
The third and final debate is set for the EXPO Centre in Edmonton on June 2.
Maybe something will happen at one of those events to make the race more exciting.
The media was very dishonest and also never took the UCP to account, for all their lies, and epic blunders, which cost us billions of dollars. Combined with Danielle Smith’s own penchant for being dishonest, this is exactly how the UCP got back into power, in 2023. That’s it, and there are absolutely no other reasons. Come to think of it, the UCP were using dishonest means to acquire power in 2019. Danielle Smith is still lying at a constant rate, and the UCP are still doing very pricey blunders, that cost us billions of dollars, while causing more hardship for Albertans. Naheed Nenshi will basically mop the floor with Danielle Smith, and she won’t be able to stop him, after he further exposes her lies, and the very expensive mistakes the UCP are continually doing. He has known her for over three decades. Danielle Smith may not even get to finish her term as premier of Alberta, because she is getting worse and worse. Regardless of who the next UCP leader is, Naheed Nenshi will finish them off, and very easily. Once that happens, columnists, such as Licia Corbella, Lorne Gunter and David Staples, will sit at their desks, shocked, stunned, and start weeping. They won’t be able to prop up their UCP lackeys anymore. Davey Boy Parker is also going to be put in his place. This is by no means boring, and it will be fun to watch.
It’s been said that the Progressives don’t like to get into the dirty tricks that CONs are known for. Or, as Michelle Obama put it, “When they go low, we go high.” Well, how do that strategy turning out?
While slogans and pledges to maintain the highest standards of etiquette are nice, they accomplish nothing when you’re faced down in the ditch and getting kicked. Turn the other cheek? Here’s a tip: most modern day Christians readily claim they would never turn the other cheek. Rather, they prefer sucker and gut punches to get their win. (Jesus was such a loser.)
Rachel Notley sought to win last year’s election by being polite, kind, and taking the high road at all times. How did that turn out? The troubling thing with the ABNDP leadership race is that, for now, it appears to be bloodless. I mean, it has the cleanest killing floor ever seen.
Naheed Nenshi is the presumptive front-runner, and he’s already made his pitch. He’s here to save Alberta. Great slogan. While the UCP and Queen Danielle are wrecking havoc and turning everything into a shitshow of epic proportions, the rest of the field of candidates for the leadership are strangely silent. I mean, not a peep out of them. This is what got the ABNDP into trouble last year, this weird tendency to STFU when they should be screaming the truth about the UCP, who were already telegraphed nicely every single train wreck that’s happening right now. Notley’s performance against Smith in the debate was a masterclass in surrendering, and she did so brilliantly.
Nenshi is just getting started and he’s showing good instincts. He’s established why he’s running, and he’s already presented the obvious: the UCP is an existential threat to everything Albertans take for granted. They are using the Republican playbook, and they are getting away with it. The policies will come, but right now Smith is burning everything down and no one cares.
I know from personal experience that the best way to stand up to a bully is not to throw the book at him. Rather, grab his books and binder and slam them on the floor, as hard as you can, in the middle of class, with everyone watching. Then sit down without saying a word. Never explain. Guaranteed to get immediate action.
Hmmm…sounds like something that was attempted with some character named A. Hitler back in the day.
Of course, the strategy changed when the decision was made to smash his brains in. Of course, the worst part of that late start was that, as it was discovered, A. Hitler had entrenched himself so deeply and so thoroughly, among so many allies and flunkies, a lot of heads (millions of them) would have to be smashed in before A. Hitler was found with a self-inflicted big hole in his head.
There is always risk involved with pushing all the muscle against a bully, but in the end push you must. And the longer you wait, the more pushing is required. One need only look at the indecision over dealing with V. Putin and his fellow travellers to learn that he is also heavily entrenched and well protected. Personally, I would have dealt with a character like Putin much more quickly and with considerably more violence by now. Considering he jets around frequently, he presents himself as an easy target. As for the consequences of solving everyone’s Putin problem — and I do mean everyone’s Putin problem — I can imagine that there are many in Russia who would like to see the boss dealt with…finally. And the thought of Tucker Carlson running for his life is appealing enough, once his boss and master is incapacitated.
Where Queen Danielle is concerned, she has three years to do tons of damage. Now, there’s talk that the UCP are going to build a high-speed rail link throughout the province. Maybe it will be a monorail. But one that is certain is that in pursuit of another costly vanity project, the communities along Highway QE2 are going to be enormously Pee-O’d once all that traveller commerce is wiped out.
Mo’ popcorn.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the NDP actually elected a leader whose idea of opposition was doing more than releasing tepid press releases and playing nice.
UCP blowing bridges and setting fires.
NDP sipping tea and playing musical chairs
Think I got it
Being an avid watcher of Legislature question period, what strikes me is that both Ms. Ganley and Ms. Hoffman, prior to the leadership race always asked many questions and had a great of commentary regarding UCP policy. Since the leadership race began, both have been very quiet.
Sure, some of us would prefer a more genuinely left-wing NDP — bring in public auto insurance, deprivatize and re-regulate power and gas utilities, return registry services to the public sector where they belong, defund private and denominational schools and hospitals, and raise the minimum wage to the “living wage” standard, among other policies. But that’s not where the voters are at. To go down that road would doom the NDP’s chances of ever forming government again, and we’d all be stuck with the Dani and David show for the next decade or more.
The only priority of the NDP must be in rescuing the people of Alberta from the UCP’s privations, and that means following what I call the “Willy Sutton rule” of politics: go where the voters are. That means a very pragmatic, moderate and quite centrist platform devoid of any of the traditional socialist touchpoints, but offering honest, graft-free, good governance.
This approach has been the one that has given western Canadian New Democrats majority governments at the provincial level on many occasions.
We can’t afford to let the UCP win another election.
“It’s that the NDP Caucus in the Legislature appears to be totally distracted by it at a time the United Conservative Party Government led by Danielle Smith is running out of control…”
Rachel Notley is still the leader of the party. As the AB NDP’s primary, if not exclusive, spokesman, it’s her job to be hammering the UCP in and outside the Legislature. Notley’s ship appears to have sailed already.
That said, keeping on top of Smith’s whirlwind of truly terrible policies and deconstruct her wackadoodle pronouncements would be a full-time job for six people. Truly exhausting.
“But if you wanted to keep that from happening, that ship sailed when Captain Notley was at the helm.”
The big winners of Notley’s shift to the right? Former Liberal, NDP, and red Tory PCs.
Truly a sad day when these parties dissolved or lost support. Lucky for them, Rachel Notley came along and handed over the NDP. Effectively severing ties with the federal NDP, even though Notley does not wish to formalize the divorce.
Notley got cozy with Suncor’s CEO and arch-conspiracy theorist Vivian Krause. No hesitation when it came to throwing environmentalists and climate activists under her diesel bus. Now we must all rally behind Suncor and CNRL.
The big losers in this deal? Longtime NDP supporters on the left — if they have not already gone extinct.
“The talk around our table is that the NDP government is just another platform of the previous Conservative government with a different logo. Nothing has changed.” (Chief Allan Adam)
Not sure what the new party stands for, except defeating D. Smith and the UCP.
But what if they don’t?
If a Notley sell-out and Nenshi takeover of the party represents the only chance the opposition has of dislodging Smith, the UCP, and the TBA mob, then it is a chance worth taking.
But the arithmetic is not promising. Danielle Smith was the only reason the last election was close. Against a half-sensible leader like Travis Toews, the UCP would have won by a landslide. Nenshi has no pull in rural Alberta. If the polls get too close, the UCP can trade Smith for a blue fencepost and still win.
If Nenshi fails to win seats in small-city Alberta and the Edmonton “doughnut”, Notley will have sold out her party for nothing. Progressives — I’m talking Raging Grannies, anti-poverty advocates, doddering university profs, and greenies — will be left with no voice in or outside the dome.
As the Alberta NDP morphs into PC-lite, Alberta progressives are left without representation. No one left to defend social democratic principles and science-based, progressive policy.
Absent a progressive party on the left, centrist parties like the present-day Notley-Nenshi NDP will continue to chase conservative parties to the right. Trying to outconservative the conservatives in a vain attempt to win power.
The upshot? Our political parties — now run by lobbyists, with the grassroots kept at a distance — stray from the public interest and increasingly cater to corporate interests. As we see today with the NDP and UCP.
Make no mistake. Progressives have been relegated to the nosebleed section. No one under the dome will see them, much less hear them. Much as I like Nenshi, his coronation represents a setback to the progressive movement in Alberta.
That race is over.
Correction: “The big winners of Notley’s shift to the right? Former Liberal, Alberta Party, and red Tory PCs.”
Not fully awake at 8 AM.
I fired my editor.
Geoffrey Pounder – So how are these ‘winners’ (Former Liberal, Alberta Party, and red Tory PCs) reaping their rewards? Are their poll numbers going up by 1/2 dozens? Does anybody know, or care, about them?
Political parties change and the NDP has moved to what they see as more electable policies. I sometimes regret that the modern day NDP are not as aggressively ‘left’ as they used to be and then I look at how the NDP is now able to actually elect enough members to need a board room to meet in rather than a phone booth, or having no elected members like the NDP of old.
I’m pleased that “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” is not holding up for the modernized NDP.
“So how are these ‘winners’ (Former Liberal, Alberta Party, and red Tory PCs) reaping their rewards?”
As the NDP shifts right, the Liberal, Alberta Party, and red Tory PCs stand to inherit (take over) the NDP. At the expense of the progressive left.
Notley did not win the 2015 election on pipeline boosterism. That came afterward.
In 2019, Jason Kenney’s UCP defeated the NDP in a landslide. Cheerleading for pipelines won Notley little credit. Stoking Albertans’ perennial resentment over pipelines and everything else under the sun only helped the UCP. Notley was attacked and vilified despite her fossil-fuel cheerleading, not for lack of it. Notley also alienated many longtime NDP supporters. Most pipeline supporters will vote for the real O&G party.
Danielle Smith was the only reason the last election was close.
Despite Notley’s shift to the right, the NDP still lost.
Is chasing the UCP to the right a winning strategy?
So far the evidence does not support that claim. In 2023, the NDP benefitted handsomely from the anyone but Smith vote. With Toews at the helm, it would have been a cakewalk for the UCP.
If you have to sacrifice your principles — and adopt your opponents’ policies — to win election, what have you won?
Sure, let’s give Nenshi a spin — but if the NDP lose in 2027, all will be for naught. And progressives will have lost their voice in Alberta politics.
A coup for the right. Engineered by the centre-left.
No comment.
I think the picture says it all. Young faces looking excited, diverse ethnic backgrounds, solid mix of genders. Compared to your typical UCP rally picture: white hair, white faces, mostly male and mostly angry. Say whatever you like about Nenshi but if he has what it takes to engage youthful voters that what is there to complain about?
“Just Me” nailed it. The UCP government has put Alberta into a crisis with its proposed policies and modus operandi.
Time for drastic action. When the house is burning, get out of the building. Don’t bother to look for the photo albums. Nenshi has by far the best credentials as firefighter-in-chief.
Sorry about the cheesy metaphor, but the other candidates, all decent, gutsy and intelligent people, have burn marks from the last election.
And while we’re contemplating big changes, what happed to the proposal for a name change for the Party? I know you don’t like the idea, David, but, as the Party broadens its tent, now is good time to contemplate such a move. I’m happy to call myself an Alberta old-timer, but I accept that we have seen a huge influx of new Albertans in the past few decades, who don’t hang on to the old nomenclature and who would be quite open to a new identity. Say, Progressive Party of Alberta?
I don’t know if it’s possible, but if Nenshi is the one? I hope he will convince Sarah to back him. She’s been my favourite and I would hate to see her leave.
I saw Mr. Nenshi speak at the forum in Sherwood Park and watched the first debate from Lethbridge and all I heard was well spoken criticism of the UCP and Danielle Smith and some rather odd bromides about a headdress he was given years ago and the symbolism of that and vague promises about a better future for Alberta. THIS is supposed to work to defeat the UCP? He became quite testy and nasty when Sarah Hoffman confronted him, how genuine is his teddy bear rainbow persona?
I thought the most impressive ideas came from Gil McGowan, who seems to be being sidelined because he isn’t Nenshi and isn’t an MLA. If he was elected leader, he would have 3 years in the Legislature to grow his approach, reaching out to all the workers of Alberta, as well as traditional NDP voters, he’s a socially progressive person, too and has decades of involvement and support of the NDP. It seems like another Alberta sheep like movement, this rush to Nenshi, the savior. I fear he hasn’t the talents, the depth or the social democratic convictions to lead our party and offer a genuinely NDP alternative to the UCP. And I have a gut feeling that a male leader of the Alberta NDP would do better against Danielle Smith than our very capable women leadership candidates. She is such a toxic liar and smooth operator, she confounds and overshadows women, I think a man would have a better chance of being heard when Danielle tries to take up all the oxygen in the room.
As I recall, Nenshi generated a lot of excitement in his early years as mayor. He might be the closest to an Obama like candidate Alberta has seen. Of course, the initial hope and excitement waned, opinions about him became more divided and he accumulated some baggage. However, he hasn’t been mayor for a few years now, so some of that may have died down and now fortunately for him there is now someone else to be a lightning rod for various municipal grievances.
I wonder if the UCP with its almost daily string of controversial announcements is trying to take away attention from the NDP race. Or maybe it is just their general approach to governing – a lot of public relations mixed with regular pandering to the base.
In any event, Nenshi’s more moderate approach could offer an alternative to those not as ideological and tired of the UCP turning everything into an ideological grievance fueled battle. However, to win the NDP may need to break the lock the UCP has on seats outside of the major cities. This could be challenging for Nenshi about whom everything screams urban.
While Nenshi has strengths, I would also like to see a more interesting race, not a coronation and I think some other good candidates are being overlooked at this point.
I think the reason there hasn’t been any sort of public outcry about the UCP’s most impactful policies — for instance, removing any regulatory floor on the amount of nursing care people in “nursing homes” are to be provided — is that they are following the Steve Bannon approach: they’re “flooding the zone with shit” (sorry, DJC, but sometimes you need a good, honest swear word).
In a media landscape that is increasingly sere and deserted, they’re doing so much crazy stuff that it’s hard to keep up, and so, much of it flies below the public’s radar.