Look for Opposition Leader Rachel Notley, NDP premier of Alberta from 2015 until 2019, to step aside today.
After her election victory in May 2015, Ms. Notley proved to be a capable premier in difficult times, offering a steady hand of leadership and presiding over possibly the only time since the election of Ralph Klein that Alberta’s health care system didn’t appear to be on the verge of collapse.
She fought the good fight after her election loss to Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Frankenparty in 2019 and brought the NDP close enough to a return to power in May this year to make the loss all the more bitter and frustrating.
She has run a disciplined caucus in good times and bad, brooking no nonsense from wayward MLAs. It’s part of the reason the NDP is the largest Opposition in Alberta history and may well return to power someday soon, despite Alberta’s history and self-perception as a conservative province.
NDP Alberta circles have been abuzz for weeks that Ms. Notley will pull the plug soon. Informed New Democrats say today’s likely the day.
On Wednesday, veteran Conservative political strategist Vitor Marciano noted in a tweet that when Ms. Notley stood for her last question of the day, she “got a standing ovation from her caucus.”
“Think about that,” said Mr. Marciano, who may be a Conservative but is a shrewd observer of Alberta politics. “Pretty sure that was her last ever question as NDP Leader and likely as an MLA.”
This means there will be an NDP leadership race starting soon – indeed, in reality it has started already.
Political commentator Dave Cournoyer recently identified more than a dozen potential candidates from within and outside the NDP Caucus who might run. Most likely, though, fewer than half that many will do more than test the water with a toe.
Look for MLAs Kathleen Ganley, Christina Gray, Sarah Hoffman, Rakhi Pancholi, and David Shepherd to announce plans for serious bids soon.
It will be hard for Ms. Notley, given the control she has exerted over the party and caucus, to stand back and let the cards fall where they may, and to let the new leader run the party as she or he sees fit. But she needs to.
Whatever happens, it will be hard adjustment for many of us on both sides of the aisle.
Back in 2010, I observed that “the most engaging and promising politicians in Alberta today are two women at opposite ends of the political spectrum.”
They were, of course, Rachel Notley, then a first term NDP MLA for the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, and Danielle Smith, the new leader of the Wildrose Alliance Party.
If either of those two young women succeeded, I wrote, “they have the opportunity to remake Alberta’s political history.”
“If they both succeed, they will make Alberta politics more interesting than those of any other province in Canada,” I concluded.
They did … and they did.
Now we are entering a new era, so allow me a new prediction.
Ms. Smith, who leads Alberta with a hand unsteady enough to frighten professional political Conservative strategists smart enough to see where this is taking the province, and how voters are likely to react when they cotton on to what the Smith Government is up to, will also leave Alberta politics sooner than you expect.
Unlike Ms. Notley’s farewell, fewer Conservatives will shed tears about Ms. Smith’s departure.
This will depend, of course, on the NDP making the right choice – a bad decision could well create conditions in which Ms. Smith could remain at the helm despite her extremism, dishonesty and bad advisors.
The right one will speed the present premier’s exit if Conservatives hope to continue to dominate the province’s politics.
Perhaps when Ms. Smith goes, Alberta politics will become boring again. After the past five years under two United Conservative Party premiers, only political commentators and pollsters are likely to be unhappy about such a development.
I strongly favour David Shepherd as the next leader of the ABNDP.
Hello DJC,
I think you mean “2015” , not “2025”n to 2019 in the title. Also, in the third last paragraph, I think you mean “helm”, not “help”.
I hope that you are right about Danielle Smith leaving sooner than we expect.
Headline should be 2015 instead of 2025, also “see where this is talking the province” should be taking.
I fear this piece does not give Alberta voters nearly enough credit for the last election. It suggests they did not know who Danielle Smith was and what she represented when they elected her, and that they will someday awaken to their mistake and turn in droves towards the NDP. I would suggest an overwhelming majority of rural Albertans and just enough urban voters knew, and know, exactly who Danielle Smith was and what she represents, and voted for her anyway. The mistake the NDP made in the election was believing that once voters knew the real Danielle Smith they would naturally turn to the NDP. This attitude was reflected in their attack adds, which had no impact whatsoever but played on loop for the whole election anyway, and their “play to the Edmonton base” policy platform. The only thing that is going to unseat Danielle Smith is strong policy that resonates with the Alberta voters who decide elections, put forward by a party that resonates with those same voters. The NDP party and its standard NDP policy positions are not the messenger or the message that will unseat our current government.
All the NDP needs to do is bring some of the 41% of eligible voters who did not vote whatsoever out to vote for them and the day is won. There were ridings in Calgary that were lost by less than a hundred votes. The NDP has a very good chance of forming government again, especially the longer the UCP oversees rising inequality, continues to outrage albertans by trying to steal their PENSIONS, unending (?) economic scandals and corruption, and we’ll see if they go through with their threats to throw drug addicts in prison(?) what am I missing !?
Now, speculation; but I’m guessing a lot of folks who held their nose and voted for Danielle (because I don’t know they think Rachel Notley is a bomb throwing communist or something) thought it was going to be Kenney 2.0 just a little crazier. I’m guessing those people are going to be a lot more hesitant to check the box this time and may simply stay home if they feel they don’t have a better choice than the NDP. The future is uncertain, but it’s unlikely the NDP will lose a lot of MLAs, they do a good job. Their constituents like them.
Rural Albertans knew she was a conspiracy theorist nutbar and didn’t care? Sounds about right.
Most voters (for either party) never took the time to learn policy and platforms. It’s all culture wars and populism
Can’t agree with this comment. Do you remember there was a time when Danielle Smith mused about holding the Alberta Pension Plan referendum along with the general election? But quickly and quietly killed that idea and buried the concept of leaving the CPP. If she had not listened she would not have won the last election, simple as that. If they continue down the path they are on, hold a referendum, lose it and then ignore the results the Smith UCP will be a one term administration. Simple. Write it down.
Dear Jaundiced: As I see the longer arc of Alberta’s political history, a part of Notley’s electoral success was tapping into “old Alberta” rural voters who supported Premier Lougheed’s no nonsense approach to the oil industry on royalties and value-added development. As most of us know, Lougheed was soon sabotaged and deposed by the quislings serving American oil interests, and all too soon the PCs were taken over by the grifters and scam artists who have been looting the province ever since.
When the Notley NDP Government caved in on royalties and left the financing and organizing arm of the UCP/Cons in place in the Agricultural Checkoff organizations that alienated her support in “old Alberta.” After those two things happened, the Alberta NDP’s rural caucus evaporated.
To me the future of Alberta does not look promising. Many of the highly educated of my children’s generation have left the province never to return. After the so-called moratorium on renewables, even some of those with high level trades skills are considering getting out.
Thanks to utterly ignorant tax treatments created by the same UCP/Con looters, most of the farm and ranch land cannot reasonably be passed down to the next generation and is being consolidated into huge blocks by foreign investment companies and operated by tenant farmers.
So, when people think of Alberta’s future, they might want to consider 15th. century feudal Europe rather than some techno utopia. Elon Musk’s bullet-proof Cyber truck for oligarchs, rather than an electric rail system connecting all the population centers of the province.
I hope I’m wrong. However, many of the negative policy choices have been taken and it will require an astute and resolute government to reverse them. Which among the contenders for NDP leadership have those qualities?
This is a ridiculous article. I am originally form Alberta and I continue to watch its politics closely. It is always disgusting and disturbing, but never boring.
I do not read this publication much anymore. There are now somewhat more clued in sources about Alberta. Especially, ones who understand that NDP, or that approach to politics, will never be a solution for anything.
Noltey was the distillation of everything wrong with the NDP. No ideas whatsover. In office was utterly incompetent and directionless. Out of office, failed to oppose, failed utterly to campaign. Won office once by a fluke.
I wrote something just before the last election, about Alberta politics. It needs to be revised. But it explains the basic problem with the province. Find it here.
https://adultsincharge.blog/2023/05/16/election-in-alberta/
tim rourke: What a bunch of malarkey. We had phony Conservatives and Reformers make a horrific mess of what Peter Lougheed did right for Alberta. This especially happened with Ralph Klein. They allowed rip off oil royalty rates, which left Alberta out of $575 billion. Who knows how many billions of dollars was lost from poor natural gas rates? There is also a humongous cost of $260 billion, or more, to rectify the abandoned oil wells throughout Alberta. $150 billion was lost from abhorrent tax policies. So many other very costly shenanigans happened, which cost us billions of dollars more. The public education and public healthcare systems in Alberta were gutted, social programs had their funding slashed, utility costs shot up, because of deregulation, and infrastructure was left in a horrible state of disrepair. Under the UCP, we are seeing more of the same. Very pricey shenanigans, which are costing us billions of dollars, destruction of our public healthcare system in Alberta, so it can get privatized, just as Ralph Klein intended, not looking after the public healthcare system in Alberta, poverty levels climbing, utility and insurance costs going through the roof, the environment being neglected, and so much more. We never saw this stupidity when Peter Lougheed was premier. It’s somehow Rachel Notley’s fault for inheriting a big mess. What rubbish! The UCP are solving nothing, and are creating problems, which is what phony Conservatives and Reformers are good for.
You give your prejudice away in the first sentence my guy. How is a faithful retelling of events ridiculous? It’s just what happened. You may think it’s a fluke but turning the city of Edmonton into a powerhouse for the NDP is an incredible achievement that did not happen accidentally. Seems like she had more than a few ideas. It’s interesting to me that folks like you never seem to want to posit any of your own ideas, other than your self aggrandizing link you included to *your blog. You don’t even live here why do you think we care we don’t.
“adults in charge”??? Would not list Smith as an “adult in charge”. More like a kid run amuk in a candy store. Her latest pronouncements regarding legislation is a bit off. What she may not realize is Alberta is not Quebec, nor does she have the skills Quebec Premiers do. It will be much better for the health of Alberta citizens if Ms. Smith takes a hike sooner than later.
Wow! I am amazed at the response this has gotten. No criticism of it, just lots of reads, all referred by “Alberta Politics’ It has clearly hit a nerve. I am not sure just how.
tim rourke: You are not sure just how? The point of the matter is that phony Conservatives and Reformers were running Alberta for so many years (including the UCP), and made a horrific mess of things. Peter Lougheed warned us about Reformers and the damage they will do. Blaming Rachel Notley and the NDP is a foolish thing to do, so why do it? Ralph Klein’s daughter, Angie, even supported the NDP in the 2015 provincial election, and other cabinet ministers under Peter Lougheed, endorsed Rachel Notley.
(Reply to Tim Rourke)
Your post “Election in Alberta, May 16, 2023” is very interesting and instructive.
As you may well know, it is not easy to find a comprehensive and understandable history of Alberta, seen from a progressive point of view.
Your post does that, and your personal courage, acuteness and originality are very impressive.
One of these days, I may translate part of your work into French. So be warned!
Maurice
December 9, 2023
Tim Rourke How do you explain why so many of the former conservative MLAs had nothing but praise for Rachel Notley’s NDP for what they were trying to do to get Alberta out of the financial mess these phoney conservatives, Reformers starting with Ralph Klein have put this province in and why have Manitoba become fed up with their Reformers and voted NDP in the last election? The conservative MLAs I got to know when Lougheed’s energy minister Bill Dickie was a brother in-law of one my uncles had nothing but praise for Notley, and of course my relatives in B.C. have no problem with theirs so your remarks don’t make you look very smart do they?
Hi David
You have 2025 and I believe you meant 2015
Thank you, Carolos. Fixed. My readers are my editors. DJC
thank you david for your prodigious work covering AB politics! 2 small maybe typos:
talking the province – taking the province?
remain at the help – at the helm?
cheers
MM: Right on all counts. All fixed. Many thanks. DJC
Typo on the headline (2025)
Anon & Everyone else: Thanks for pointing out my embarrassing headline typo. It was fixed when I awoke and the haze evaporated. DJC
Would it be great if former mayor of Calgary, Naheed Nenshi were to run for the leadership? Could he deliver Calgary voters to an NDP majority?
Ken: He is one of the (in my view, less likely) candidates suggested by Dave Cournoyer. DJC
I was disappointed to not see Joe Ceci on your list of potential leaders. Any rumblings from his camp?
Regan: I think Joe would be an excellent candidate, but I personally haven’t heard he’s interested, or even picked up on a buzz. DJC
Thank you for your service, Rachel Notley.
As for you, Danielle Smith, don’t let the door hit you on the way out. Another dry spring is coming. You have given away our water to foreign billionaire coal mining interests. Our water belongs to the people of Alberta. But what do you care? Feather your nest while you can with “gifts” over $200. Enjoy the company of your 100+ person entourage on your five-star international extravaganza. Nothing but the best for you, Empress of Alberta! So much for your “superficial charm”. Ego, entitlement, arrogance and authoritarianism will be your downfall. Is the real reason for your pitch for access to tidewater so that you can pipe water in from the Pacific and install desalination plants like the UAE when all of Alberta’s water is gone? Nothing would surprise me. One and done, Danielle.
I’ll drink to that!
Abs, you guys just don’t understand conservatives. This article with all of its uncanny, metaphorical mistakes and gaffs is representative of how the left, filled with ideological contempt for others thinks and acts. Notley, power hungry and privileged, now quits, just when the party needs her the most. You all know it’s true. The NDP will now fade back to her father’s party. Your waters are ahead…..and, so, you rage against Smith instead. What you don’t know about conservatives is we are always late to show and we take longer to herd our cats. But we f?!!$&ed up once letting you guys in. We won’t do it again any time soon
Graham Dick? Rachel Notley is power hungry? That is as pathetic as it gets for an assertion. The UCP are power hungry, and the evidence confirms that. At least $230,000 in fines were thrust upon those in the UCP camp, because they didn’t obey election rules. The last head honcho of the UCP has the R.C.M.P on his tail, for his leadership race, and how he arrived at his leadership position. While he was out of the country, in Texas, the (former) head honcho of the UCP fired Lorne Gibson, who was investigating his leadership race, and thrust all those fines for UCP members not obeying the election rules. The UCP cannot pass any legislation, without being scrutinized for it, so they wait until the weekend to do it. The Legislature in Alberta has hardly any sessions, and it’s the least of any province or territory in Canada. It’s a joke, really. Danielle Smith let vacant ridings sit without MLAs, and refused by-elections in these ridings. Instead of running in one of these vacant ridings, Danielle Smith ran in a riding that already had a sitting UCP MLA, and rewarded that MLA with a fat grifter type of position for giving up her seat. The Sovereignty Act, is also an unconstitutional and undemocratic attempt to attack the federal government. On top of it all, the UCP created Bill 8. It prohibits the provincial ethics commissioner from investigating MLAs who are involved with nefarious activities, during a provincial election, allowing them to run. What it also does is change the gift amounts that MLAs can receive, allowing for the potential of bribes to happen. The screwing up was letting these phony Conservatives and Reformers in Alberta make a horrific mess of things. Ralph Klein certainly did that. Peter Lougheed warned us about what was happening, but it fell on mostly deaf ears. The UCP are doing a stellar job of screwing things up now, with so many pricey shenanigans, that cost us billions of dollars, making insurance and utility costs skyrocket, letting poverty rates soar, disrespecting our doctors, nurses and teachers, letting the environment suffer, while their rich friends get richer, on our dime. Where’s the sense in that?
And this, my fellow Alberta Politics readers, is a classic example of Gaslighting 101, brought to us by a poor ignorant UPC hype-man. It would actually be quite funny if it weren’t so transparent and stupid.
Largest opposition in alberta history and the idea it won’t happen again is pure hopium. As for the incredibly capable, affable, and humble Rachel Notley, who has eclipsed the legend of her father (if she wasn’t a woman would we even speak of the older Notley these days?) if she’s planning to leave this would be the ideal time.
Let the UCP, an unstable coalition at BEST rip itself to shreds while the largest opposition in ALBERTA HISTORY takes time to refresh and recalibrate with a new leader and a fresh strategy for the election we all know is coming (maybe embrace materialism as a start).
If she was a selfish power hungry loser she would hang on to the last possible second like Jason Kenney did or like Danielle Smith is going to, so a bit of projection there on your part as well.
You conservatives are so fond of history, the NDP under Rachel Notley formed government for FOUR YEARS which ended over FOUR YEARS ago, how can you possibly hang all your problems on Rachel Notley other than out of pure ignorant fantasy?
Keyboard warrior dreams. The arrogance of you people, who think you speak for all these folks you’ve never spoken to never ceases to floor me. Get over yourself, you’re not in charge.
I believe that Rachel Notley would have done more great things for Alberta if she was given more time. She was the closest thing to Peter Lougheed that we ever had. These phony Conservatives and Reformers certainly didn’t help Alberta, and they aren’t helping us now. Danielle Smith is unlikely to complete a full term as premier of Alberta. She has foot in mouth problems, and the stupid things she does, which also cost us a lot of money, aren’t helping.
I agree that Albertans voted for Danielle Smith, knowing full-well her proclivity for reckless, ill-thought policy and her blaming Ottawa and Trudeau for the ills brought on by decades of Conservative mismanagement. You only need to look at Lacombe Ponoka where 68% of voters voted for the parachuted “poop cookie candidate” who had already been removed from the UCP Caucus.
Ok I’m glad I looked this up because I’m really sick of people talking about lacombe ponoka like it’s representative of the entire province.
1. It is a huge mostly rural riding with three large traditionally conservative towns & it’s close proximity to larger centres is a huge draw for young people who grow up in those communities but want a different lifestyle; it’s literally an hour away. Ridings like that will always skew MORE conservative as a virtue
Of folks who stay put are just by definition more conservative than folks who leave.
Ok that’s been bugging me, on to the actual numbers.
Of the 21,206 votes cast, 4995 folks voted for the NDP, or 23% roughly, the chosen candidate received 14324 votes, or 67% roughly of votes CAST. 39% of eligible votes were not cast. If we look at % of votes cast it’s still a broad win for the UCP, but they only captured 43% of the eligible votes, the NDP captured 15% of the same percentage. If the NDP is serious about winning this riding, it’s not impossible. Higher voter turnouts favour progressives and not usually incumbents, if the NDP can pull moderate UCP “hold their nose” candidates and the whackos in the green and alberta party can keep themselves out of the way there could be a real shootin war between these two parties come next election.
Not for nothing, I also pulled the 04 results, before Rachel, before the increase in population this riding went through. In 2004 some party that doesn’t exist anymore called the progressive conservatives managed to pull 6923 votes of the 13080 total (49% of eligible) for 52% over a slate of challengers including the NDP who managed to pull 8% (1133). So in just the length of Notleys political project one of the most conservative ridings in the province has seen share of folks casting their vote orange go from 8-24%
Imagine what they could have achieved had they spoke to the MATERIAL INTERESTS of voters out there rather than brow beat them all as hateful and ignorant.
This is what I’m talking about, a lot of these ridings are a lot more up for grabs than folks think, but it’s not going to happen without engaging folks at the material level.
I think Rachel Notley’s leadership has been positive—but just not positive enough for many of her critics (especially from her own supporters). She didn’t waste political capital after what was, in reality, a default win in 2015; her retention of dozens of seats in 2019 is a tribute to how much she really changed partisan politics in Alberta; leading her party to an even bigger Opposition might be partly attributed to whom she was campaigning against, but it can’t very well be denied that it was also due to the electorate recognizing the NDP can advance on its own merit, not merely on the UCP’s demerit. If she set a trend, the NDP could be Alberta’s next government.
The cynic would say that depends on the political fate of Danielle Smith (to whom the Dippers’ increased seat-count can be partly attributed), but the optimist would like to say that depends on who replaces Notley as leader of the NDP.
Recently I observed to our American friends that if the tRumpublican GOP ever splits along obvious factional lines, it likely wouldn’t be long before the Democratic Party availed the opportunity to do the same. If there be any parallel with Alberta politics, the predicted Dipper leadership race —which is perforce a period of overtly competitive differences that at least exposes potentially schismatic factions in any party contest for leader—might be the opportunity for Smith to allow herself enough rope to hang herself politcally.
Now, doubtless some would say that Smith is going to do that anyway, regardless whether the NDP is weakened during an interregnum without a leader or strengthened by electing a good one. Point taken.
However, the likelihood that Smith will effectively rend asunder the ligatures which hold her Frankenstein UCP together is only greater because there’s three and a half years left in the UCP mandate. The NDP, at least under Notley, stands untied in fact, not only in name like its principal rival ( if the recent proposal to change the NDP’s name was an attempt to wedge Dipper solidarity, negative reviews suggest there’s little evident place to plant it).
The fact that there are now two forces working respectively on their own parties only makes Alberta politics, as ever, the most interesting in the federation.
Signing off with a Vonnegutian “And so it goes,” I wish my Alberta compatriots a very Happy Chanukah, the Festival of Lights to lift spirits (within limits) during the darkest times.
People usually don’t change their votes until they are personally impacted. That may happen if Smith’s planned changes to Alberta health care are implemented.
Ms. Notley, thank you for your service not only to Alberta but to Canada.
This is another way of saying that folks vote for their material interests, to completely belabour my point.
Can’t we keep Rachel and fire her advisors, likewise political pundits and “influencers” (no, I don’t mean you, David)??
Patricia: It would certainly be helpful if one or two advisors moved on. And I think most New Democrats would be happier if Ms. Notley remained in her post. When Ms. Notley does step down, keep an eye on which NDP staffers gravitate to which campaigns. If you’re a New Democrat, that might by a useful guide to whom not to support. DJC
I throw in the name of Shannon Phillips from Lethbridge as another potential leader. The strategic money has someone from Calgary or further south becoming leader of the Party. Shannon is smart, articulate, and, above all, not intimidated by the political fray.
Party people seem to be looking at next fall’s convention for the vote. I hope the leadership vote is pushed up to spring. From now until next fall is too long to be leaderless — especially at a time when so many destructive and bizarre policies emanate from the Smith government. We desperately need a committed Opposition articulating a clear alternative to the current nonsense from the government. We are missing that right now.
And, dear Rachel, will be due our thanks for all time. She helped make a dream come true in 2015, and led us this year to the largest NDP opposition ever.
And, let’s bring up again the proposal for a name change. My informal poll at a recent NDP constituency meeting showed 100 percent in favor of considering such an idea. Among other advantages, the move could entice former Calgary mayor, Naheed Nenshi, into the leadership contest.
In my opinion it doesn’t make sense for the leader to come from anywhere other than Edmonton, it’s the organizational powerhouse, it’s the more working class city and there isn’t the same organized base in the south as there is in Edmonton. Having a parachute leader doesn’t make a lot of sense in terms of regrowing the party.
On the possibility of Dani being a short time as premier. The option? A forced vote on her position, she’s ousted, and presto, David Parker steps into the Premiership. Un-elected, probably un-electable but has the bully boy party to make it happen. Remember, they kicked out Kenney, they can kick out Dani. What a nightmare!
I will do everything in my power to exit from this toxic wasteland
Breaking St. Albert news….. the resto in the Servus Credit sponsored rec centre has CANCELLED the reservation by TBA for their Christmas party. OMG, more fuel on the woke fire of cancel culture. The UCP braintrust must be very very pleased.
This site will be banned on the Alberta subreddit if Notley does not step down this weekend:
“If Ms. Notley does not step down this weekend, we will ban this domain for false information going forward.” -mod of r/alberta
Oh gawd! Banned by a subreddit? The shame! How will I ever cope? DJC
Banned? Join the club!
Reddit is where brains go to die. Literally no one cares we are all already here reading the blog.
Can we convince Marit Stiles to come to Alberta from the NDP in Ontario?
Ontario NDP? No prizewinners here unfortunately.
Notley resigned yesterday? I didn’t read that anywhere else. Someone needs better sources.
Glen: No, she didn’t. But I’m not quite ready to eat crow yet, at least not a heaping portion. Let’s see what happens next week. If there’s a plan, as I am told and believe, and if the NDP are going to stick to it, Ms. Notley is going to have to resign sooner than later. Of course, it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been completely wrong, but so far in Alberta politics, my record is pretty good. DJC
My guess is that there just isn’t enough snow yet for her to go for a walk in … ;-).
The most right honourable Glen, Eh? Thanks for the inspiration! “Sunshine Soldiers”. My next big hit!
Welcome our next prime minister
To Tim Rourke: You may or may not have something useful to contribute to the discussion of Rachel Notley’s leadership. But given your anger-filled screed on the subject, I doubt many will feel compelled to read your “explanation of the basic problem of the province.” Calm down; chill out. If not, no one will take you seriously. Having got that off my chest, I have other things do do, thanks.
If or when Rachel decides to step down, she will leave the Alberta NDP as the only clear alternative to the UCP. The party has never been in better shape financially, organizationally, and in terms of the bench strength of its impressive legislature caucus. Much of the credit for this is due to Rachel’s strong leadership over the last nine plus years.
I’d prefer another go round with Premier Notley, but you’ve put a fine point on it!
Hello Bird,
I think that the NDP losses by less than a hundred votes is paralleled by at least one success by less than a hundred votes – Diana Batten of the NDP was elected in Calgary Heritage in 2023 by a margin of 25 votes. Calgary Heritage was formerly represented by Tyler Shandro. I think that this extremely slim majority suggests the precarity of the successes of the NDP, both in 2015 and to-day.
Much has been made of the UCP preference for a pension slush fund, to be created by a massive transfer of funds form the CPP to Alberta, and quite possibly intended by the UCP to prop up mostly foreign-owned o & g corporations. However, I wonder how important CPP is in rural Alberta. My understanding is that CPP contributions are mandatory only for employers and individual employees. One has to wonder how many farmers and ranchers choose to make both the employer and employee contributions to enable them to collect CPP once they are older (60+ depending on the age you decide to apply for CPP). If many in rural Alberta don’t contribute to CPP, would that mean that they are in favour of the UCP’s plan for an Alberta Pension Plan? And would they be fine with having money from the CPP transferred to the Alberta government and then given out, maybe a la Ralph bucks? Danielle Smith has posited that there would be a substantial amount of money flowing from the CPP to the Alberta government.
Hi Christina,
Your thoughts on rural people not supporting CPP are interesting. However, the majority of farmer/ranchers have some type of business arrangement and do pay into CPP. We began our business as a partnership and then progressed to a corporation. We have payed into CPP from the start.
I believe the rural people who want an APP are largely composed of those who support the beliefs of TBA.
I listened to the Central AB town hall and was very pleasantly surprised and relieved how little support there was for an APP.
I would like to see Ms Notley remain as leader of the NDP. I agree if she had been given more time in office, Alberta would be a much better place! Thank you for your huge service and contributions.
David C thank you for the fantastic work you have done for UNA.
Hey Christina,
I think the answer below wrt ranching and cpp is a pretty good answer, I’m just going to point out that folks who live in rural areas have a wide variety of occupations, and the sole proprietor farmer isn’t really all that common as it was in decades past.
As far as your comment +/- 100 votes I believe you missed the forest for the trees, the point isn’t that the NDP won or lost those seats by a thin margin it’s that in years past those were GUARANTEED safe ridings for conservatives. Much like the NDP had grown their vote share by a multiple of 3 in Ponoka, they’re now neck in neck for many ridings in Calgary, this is a massive shift and indicates a REAL possibility for the NDP to form government again, if (for the last time I swear) they can connect with the material interests of heartland voters rather than trying to shame them over social issues. Like, for example, running candidates that represent the working class or at least understands their material conditions.
Dear DC; step into a circus? Expect clowns.
“Journalism” in the 21st = some guy posts an opinion. You’ve somehow managed to reduce your lack of credibility
dub: FYI, this is a blog, not a news site. As for credibility, the UCP are phony Conservatives and Reformers, unlike Peter Lougheed, who was a true Conservative. Phony Conservatives and Reformers do nothing to help people, they only allow their rich friends to steal us of our oil and tax wealth, while destroying jobs, and leaving the services we rely on to suffer.
Buddy have you read a newspaper before? They’re literally called opinion columns; our intrepid blogger is indeed a columnist. Now think really hard and tell me why they’re called columns in the first place.