Jobs, Economy and Innovation Minister Doug Schweitzer at a news conference last year (Photo: Alberta Newsroom/Flickr).

In a statement published on social media yesterday, Jobs, Economy and Innovation Minister Doug Schweitzer said he’s not going to seek the leadership of the United Conservative Party, and, what’s more, he won’t even be seeking re-election as MLA for Calgary-Elbow.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney (Photo: Alberta Newsroom/Flickr).

Mr. Schwitzer was the third-place candidate in the 2017 leadership race won by Jason Kenney, so with the premier’s announcement on May 18 there was naturally some speculation he might give it another try. “I have been truly honoured at the support  I have received for a potential candidacy,” he said in his statement. 

Now, when politicians make a decision to exit politics gracefully while they still can, as Mr. Schweitzer seems to be doing, they’re not likely to provide the real reason they’re pulling the plug on public life. Not, at least, until the dust has settled and they decide to write a tell-all memoir. 

In the meantime, we’re forced to speculate on why the Calgary lawyer has decided to get out. 

“After 8 years,” he said, “I am looking forward to spending more time with my family.” Such a statement, as we all understand, can be literally true and yet not be the entire reason, tempting us to try to read between the lines. 

The eight years Mr. Schweitzer mentioned, it must be noted, refer to his time playing an active role in the Progressive Conservative Party and the UCP, during part of which he worked on the late Jim Prentice’s leadership campaign. He has only been an MLA since 2019. 

UCP leadership hopeful and chief Kenney rival, Brian Jean, MLA and former Wildrose Party leader (Photo: CBC).

The bulk of Mr. Schweitzer’s statement assigns credit to the work of the UCP for the state of the economy, describes the current state of affairs in Alberta as being copacetic, and claims that high-paying jobs and our “amazing quality of life” are attracting newcomers to Alberta in droves. None of this is really an accurate reflection of the facts, but it is entirely understandable political hyperbole of the sort engaged in at election time by politicians of all stripes. 

Mr. Schweitzer added, almost as an aside, that “to help ensure the continuity and stability of our government, my intention is to continue my work on the Alberta Economic Recovery Plan and remain in cabinet until a new leader is elected.” The reaction of most readers to this sentence, presumably, was, “Well, why wouldn’t you?”

There is no other mention in the statement of Jason Kenney, implicit or explicit, or the circumstances that led to his decision to announce his resignation as premier and UCP leader.

So what happened?

Mr. Schweitzer may have looked at the state in which Mr. Kenney has left the UCP and decided … not worth the effort! The party’s a wreck. 

Blogger and former talk-radio emcee Danielle Smith, the other former Wildrose leader with a hat in the ring (Photo: Screenshot of YouTube video).

He may have examined the auguries and realized his own re-election chances in Calgary-Elbow are slim. He won by a comfortable enough plurality in 2019, 44 per cent of the vote, defeating the incumbent, Greg Clark of the Alberta Party. 

But with the Alberta Party now seemingly marginalized and a strong NDP candidate, energy analyst Samir Kayande, nominated to contest the riding, it’s possible Mr. Schweitzer did the math and concluded he didn’t need the humiliation of retiring from politics as a loser? 

Or, already having been skidded from the important Justice Ministry by Mr. Kenney, and given his current redundant portfolio, he may not have relished the idea of being consigned to the back benches by a future UCP leader – especially if those back benches happen to be on the opposition side of the Legislature while the NDP enjoys the perks of power, which is well within the realm of possibility.

Then there is the matter of whom he might have to work for if he didn’t hold the top job himself.

Jason Kenney, come back to political life, a latter-day Lazarus at the head of the Frankenparty he created in his own image? Now that Alberta’s sic transit gloria Kenney moment has been revealed to be a cruel joke, that has to be considered as a possibility. 

Energy analyst Samir Kayande, the NDP’s candidate in Calgary-Elbow (Photo: Pembina Institute). 

For his part, Mr. Kenney posted a cheerfully  pro forma tweet offering his best wishes to Mr. Schweitzer “in all that comes in the future.”

Brian Jean? Mr. Kenney’s Main Enemy posted a tweet telling Mr. Schweitzer that he’d like him to stick around and promising a cabinet post if he did. Needless to say, such a thing isn’t Mr. Jean’s to promise, and may never be.

Or – quelle horreur! – Danielle Smith? 

Yes, one can see why Mr. Schweitzer would want to make a dignified departure, even if he wasn’t going to have to face questions on the campaign trail about why he hired Steve Allen to head Mr. Kenney’s fatuous inquiry into “anti-Alberta energy campaigns,” not to mention the tangled story of how Mr. Allen then hired the law firm where Mr. Schweitzer once worked and the commissioner’s son still did. 

Or maybe he really does want to spend more time with his family.

Regardless, Mr. Schweitzer likely won’t be the last member of Mr. Kenney’s cabinet to decide that trying to get re-elected isn’t the wisest course of action. They’re all tarred with Mr. Kenney’s brush now. 

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13 Comments

  1. It’s never just the rats that flee a sinking ship, it’s everyone with any sense. Sinking ships are not good places to hang out. The UCP is like someone sank a ship made entirely out of tire fires.

  2. When the outcome is so obvious why would any of these fools want to be embarrassed by Notley. You would think Brian Jean and Danielle Smith would be a lot smarter, but they aren’t.

  3. What was that someone said about the rats running off of the sinking ship? Oh yeah. It’s the smart ones who have lives outside of politics.

    I’ve long suspected that the bulk of the Kenney’s loyalist MLAs were those who have no prospect of better employment outside of politics, or honestly believe that they can charm themselves out of the present mess and maybe move up. There’s no doubt that Daddy Warbucks will handsomely reward anyone willing to go down with the ship.

    Doug Schweitzer is one of the members of the UCP cabinet who has managed to function in government relatively trouble-free. He hasn’t attracted any large scandals and it looks like he’s free to slip back into private life unscathed. As for the others in the cabinet, woe unto them.

    I suspect that in the coming weeks and months, more and more of the UCP MLAs in vulnerable urban/rurban ridings will be thinking serious about their prospects in the upcoming election. There are over 40 representing rural ridings who will stick around because they have much to gain. They are able to continue to convince the rubes that they are one of them and it was all Kenney’s fault. That’s a substantial block of support that would surely give these UCP MLAs chances of survival equal to that of the old Soviet Politburo. As for those in Calgary and Edmonton ridings, they door is calling.

    Tyler Sandro will soon be headed for the exit, as well as Sonya Savage. Both have considerable transgressions against the public trust that particularly disastrous. And Kayce Madu is looking especially vulnerable and is certain to be considering his prospects of continuing in public life.

    Of course, with Kenney’s commitment to *only* be an interim leader, who has no intention of seeking the leadership for a second time, one wonders what will happen to Brian Jean? (Ginger Kenney) I suspect he may wish to keep quiet and let his official leadership bid speak for itself. Or, he may just decide to test Kenney’s resolve? Would Kenney be willing to throw Jean from the caucus for doing what he said he was going to do — oppose Kenney? Now, that would a drama worth watching. I can’t say Kenney would be so bold as to pull that one, unless he truly believed that all was lost. In that case, Kenney would do it for the kicks and giggles, torturing and trolling everyone until the bitter end. All things considered, that sounds just like the real Jason Kenney, petulant and vengeful to the end.

  4. The UCP is crumbling. It was bound to happen. Alberta will be just fine if the UCP aren’t in power anymore, causing damages that will take a long time to fix.

  5. Something tells me all the top dogs will all land pretty amazing jobs and coincidentally will have been responsible for passing laws that allow them to amass great wealth at their new jobs or something like that.

  6. Ockham would shave the question of Doug Schweitzer’s resignation announcement down to the simplest nub: it’s so weird because the UCP is so weird, that’s it, that’s all.

    On the other hand, politics is by nature complicated and there’s nothing simple about the UCP—and not only that, it packed all its complexities into just seven, short years—only three in power— from the defeat of Alberta’s 44 year-old ProgCon regime —whence Mr Schweitzer’s more recent crack at politics (he was the vanquished premier Prentice’s campaign manager)—and the defeat of the nine-year HarperCon regime—whence Mr Kenney (he was a federal cabinet minister, winning his Calgary seat but now in Opposition)—, in the spring and fall of 2015, respectively. Both the UCP and CPC were composed of shattered remnants of preceding ProgCon parties, both are riven with faction between traditional Tories, SoCons, and newly recruited elements of the far-right. But whereas the CPC’s organization of right-wing factions and subsequent leadership problems occurred rather gradually, it’s the sharply contrasting rapidity of the UCP’s organization and singular flame-out of its first and only leader that’s the most relevant context from which Schweitzer’s curiously short political career can be analyzed—if, indeed, it can be. (His 2004 federal candidacy wherein he ran against the CPC candidate as an Independent can be discounted since he came in last-place behind the Marijuana and Communist parties and never made it to Ottawa—that is, he has experienced electoral defeat before.)

    Incumbency and cabinet-minister status would normally make the decision to run again almost automatic for a relatively young MLA with only one term under his belt, but most curious is that he contested the first UCP leadership race, coming in third-place, and the easiest speculation was that he wouldn’t pass up the chance to become leader now the first winner is going to step down, let alone not even run for his seat. He’s young enough to feasibly switch careers, and his professed desire to spend more time with family, that resignation cliche, can’t be discounted. However, he knows what it’s like to lose an election, himself in 2004 and 2017, and his candidate Jim Prentice in 2015 (and as a partisan participant in the CPC’s 2015, 2019, and 2021 losses). It’s hard to discern if he thought he himself might not win re-election or if the party might not win government, but we do know that because he deferred running for the ProgCon leadership in favour of Prentice, and became his campaign manager instead, he weighed his odds and let them be his guide. If he’s consistent, we might suppose his refusal to run for either the UCP leadership or his own seat was as carefully weighed and, in either case—or both—it can’t be taken as a ringing endorsement of Kenney’s leadership or the party’s prospects.

    Presumably other UCP MLAs are calculating these odds, as well, perhaps on the the same bases, but also acknowledging that as a brand new party with a brand new leader, the UCP was an unknown entity and it’s not really blameworthy that some MLA’s expectations have been disappointed. We of course know the main unhappinesses, but there are very probably other, less obvious or more particular ones that will figure in individual incumbency decisions. If the UCP is consistent, we can expect more, surprisingly curious announcements.

    Many friend and foe would admit being impressed by Kenney’s skill at herding so many barn, alley, and leather-couch cats into a single bag, but his administrative leadership inside that bag plainly wasn’t to the liking of some of them. We can see two main factions but, a closer look might reveal that Kenney’s approval/disapproval doesn’t divide as neatly and probably includes coon-scarred, outdoor toms as well as pampered, indoor Burmese—a diversity that might indicate it was the quality of Kitty-K’s personal leadership rather than his policies which weighed more heavily against him. Nobody had seen Kenney as anything but the storming stumper—where hyperbole and gin are tolerated—except, of course, for Brian Jean who was K-Boy’s federal colleague. Based on that experience, Jean apparently considers himself the better leader when between elections (the problem is, he might not be nearly as good as Kenney at that other, critical stage of politics, campaigning).

    Schweitzer’s decision could have been based on the competition. Being touted as a fiscal conservative, he might have worried that a more radical-right leader has better odds of winning the leadership battle, yet not the general war. But if that was all, he might have waited to see who else will throw cher hat in the ring.

    I can’t help but think his early and total decision, somewhat surprising, is somehow prospective—but of what? Might be another political job (although one wouldn’t call Prentice’s defeat a feather in his campaign manager’s hat—even if Prentice’s “math is hard” gaff was entirely his own—,there are elections coming up that are critical for conservative parties, provincial and federal).

    Still, Schweitzer’s a lawyer: he can find work outside of politics. Indeed, maybe he senses political winds that blow counter to his kind of cost-cutting prescriptions. His curious announcement that he intends to continue ministering his cabinet responsibilities might underscore philosophical commitment to armour some of these fiscal-rectitude polices, presumably against perceived forces that would sacrifice them to partisan expediency. Not having to worry about re-election himself allows him some freedom of action without fear of retaliation—perhaps a useful position. But, if that were the case, I still wonder if there’s something in it for him, a rewarding patronage appointment, say.

    But Ockham would probably say it’s as simple as an astute young politician seeing something bad up ahead he doesn’t want t be part of. Diving into that kettle of fish is tempting, but we leave that razor behind.

    For at least the next year, very move, every announcement, every position, and everything not done or not said that was expected is likely significant in some way for the UCP and Alberta—some way that maybe only Einstein could figure out—didn’t he say Ockham doesn’t play dice with the universe? Or was that Doug Schwitzer…?

  7. Yeah, I think Mr. Schweitzer concluded there were several problems with sticking around.

    The first one, was it was unlikely he could win the UCP leadership if he tried again. Given that he ran before and came in third, one would think experience and name recognition might help a lot. However, as the saying goes, the party is not for turning at this point, at least not in a moderate direction, so I think he is well aware his chances are slim, probably even more so than before.

    The second problem is Schweitzer’s own constituency isn’t the safest one. While he did ok in 2019 that was when the UCP and Kenney were at the height of their popularity. If he were to run for the leadership and do ok (however, see problem #1) , that might help him in running as an MLA. However, failing that, it could be a real battle, one which might not work out for him this time. So perhaps better to quit before losing.

    The third potential problem is if the right wing completely takes over the UCP, even if he won re-election and stayed, it could become very uncomfortable. Schweitzer seemed to oddly enjoy a good relationship with Kenney. Maybe that was because Schweitzer was not really a political threat to Kenney, but his running for the leadership before broadened the race and gave it an appearance of legitimacy. Not quite a kamikaze candidate, but close. I suppose it is possible Schweitzer could try work with whoever else took over on a similar basis and Brian Jean seems willing to at least entertain the idea, but how much further does Schweitzer want to wade into the swamp of kookiness?

    I suspect as a fairly young person still, Schweitzer is looking towards the future. If the UCP continues to fall apart, they may eventually need someone to come in and pick up the pieces. Perhaps by then some will realize the very right wing angry approach doesn’t sell so well, even in Alberta, and they may start looking to go in a different direction. Of course, parties often don’t reward or even remember fair weather friends, but this is probably a more attractive alternative for him than sticking around and watching this train wreck continue in slow motion.

  8. Ah, yes, the late Jim Prentice, who handed the 2019 provincial election to the NDP with three little words, “Math is hard.” Or was that four words, “Look in the mirror”?

    Now we’ll never get to see Doug Schweitzer running around a track in a dinosaur costume ever again. But wait — the rumor mill hints that DS might run for mayor of Calgary. We might get to see that costume again after all! I hear that Victoria had an unusual mascot. Maybe Dino Doug could be ours.

    1. Right-wingers: Poor people need to take some personal responsibility for where they are in life.
      Jim Prentice: Albertans need to take some personal responsibility for where they are in life.
      Right-wing Albertans: Burn the heretic!

  9. Well let’s see who else folds up their tent. Before the Grant Devine government fell in Saskatchewan a number of cabinet ministers retired from public life. They could read the tea leaves correctly. And sometimes the simplest explanation is the correct one. Financing a losing campaign can leave the candidate with a large financial debt personally. Who needs that?

  10. He did not have to consult a fortune teller to read those tea leaves.

    Besides…who on earth would aspire to that job given the abysmal divisions within the Party.

  11. No matter who from Jason Kenney’s front bench decides to run, they will have Jason Kenney hanging around their necks like a stinking albatross, to borrow a phrase from Peter MacKay…..

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