Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley opens her campaign in Edmonton on April 29 (Photo: Alberta NDP).

Today is May 1, the International Day of the Worker and presumably only by coincidence the day on which Alberta Premier Danielle Smith plans to visit Alberta Lieutenant-Governor Salma Lakhani to ask her to call a general election for May 29.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith (Photo: Alberta Newsroom/Flickr).

Recent polling suggests Ms. Smith’s United Conservative Party and Opposition Leader Rachel Notley’s Alberta NDP are virtually tied in the intentions of voters – a situation not as simple as it seems given the regional strength of the UCP in rural ridings and the NDP in the Edmonton area. 

It is generally agreed the battleground that determines how the election campaign will end is in Calgary.

Indeed, the entire election may hinge on just how unpopular Premier Smith is with traditional Conservative voters. Some polling suggest she may be unpopular enough for many longstanding Conservative supporters to stay home on election day, or even hold their noses and vote NDP to restore a little sanity to the governance of Alberta. 

The apparent horserace will please media and quite likely engage many voters during what is bound to feel like a long month ahead.

In addition to election kick-off events in Calgary and Edmonton on the weekend by both parties, the UCP has obviously been concerned by the impact that the attitudes about diversity in our society held by many in its base appears may have on sophisticated Calgary voters. If readers doubt this assertion, they should take a look at the government’s Flickr royalty-free photographs page, Alberta Newsroom, this morning. 

As political commentator Dave Cournoyer pointed out in his Substack column this morning, while the UCP may be internally divided between Take Back Alberta insurgents and more traditional conservatives, Alberta’s many federal Conservative MPs can be counted on to pitch in to try to shore up their provincial brethren. 

They should be worried. The success of the NDP provincially if it continues is bound over time to have a progressive impact on the solid blue Conservative wall that other Canadians see in Albertans’ provincial voting patterns.

TBA activists asked to hide their affiliation until after vote

Having the misfortune of seeing their existence made official by the Globe and Mail last week, it seems the Take Back Alberta cadres who now dominate Ms. Smith’s UCP have been instructed to hide their light under a bushel until after the election. 

TBA activist Benita Pederson communicated to TBA supporters last week asking them to “please refrain from wearing your TBA T-shirts to UCP events.”

Take Back Alberta activist Benita Pederson, at right, with TBA founder David Parket (Photo: Screenshot of TBA video).

“There are some members of the media that are apparently attempting to twist the facts,” she said. “Let’s deny them fuel for the fire, shall we?” 

“We also recommend that you don’t bring up TBA when interacting with UCP supporters and potential UCP supporters,” she added, noting (not inaccurately) that “not everybody is friendly to TBA.”

Of course, the problem isn’t that some members of the media are twisting the facts, but that the objective facts about TBA and its takeover of the UCP speak for themselves. 

These kind of things take time to sink in to the minds of any democratic electorate, so it is quite possible many Albertans will not be aware of what they are voting for when they cast a ballot for their local UCP candidate. 

As a third-party advertiser, TBA can’t legally advertise during the election period. However, as a now-covert radical movement adopting Leninist tactics within the UCP, one wonders if they’ll try to find other ways to use their clout.

Chelsae Petrovic solves the problem of bad-tweet blowback

They say that what you put online lives forever, but future historians may credit Chelsae Petrovic with solving a problem that has bedevilled loose-lipped election candidates since the beginning of the Internet age: Dumb stuff you said social media that comes back to haunt you. 

UCP Livingstone-Macleod candidate Chelsae Petrovic (Photo: Twitter/Chelsae Petrovic).

Ms. Petrovic, United Conservative Party candidate in the Livingstone-Macleod riding, has found a solution for the era: She has simply issued a blanket apology for anything that may surface in the future.

Already elected as mayor by the uncritical voters of the southern Alberta town of Claresholm, Ms. Petrovic is well known for blaming folks with heart conditions for their own medical problems. 

With the election in the offing, she took to social media to explain that “as someone who had no intention of ever seeking public life, there are some comments and posts that I now know I should have been more prudent about before engaging with. I regret not researching some topics over the past fifteen years more thoroughly before commenting.” (Uh-oh!)

“I want to apologize unreservedly for these actions and any hurt that I may have caused,” she continued. I pledge to the residents of Livingstone-Macleod that moving forward, I will communicate in a way that is respectful.” 

So if you’re unhappy with anything Ms. Petrovic has said, get over it now, whatever it may turn out to be.

Dani-defamation deadline passes quietly

Radical street preacher and Smith interlocutor Artur Pawlowski (Photo: Facebook/Artur Pawlowski).

Friday was Premier Smith’s deadline to the CBC to apologize for its supposedly defamatory coverage of her notorious chummy conversation with extremist street preacher Artur Pawlowski about the criminal charges he faces in connection with the convoy blockade of the Coutts border crossing in February 2022.

Not surprisingly, nothing happened in public Friday – the date, presumably, having been chosen because it was the last business day before Ms. Smith’s planned trip to the lieutenant governor to call an election today. 

Will she now sue the CBC for defamation during an election campaign, presumably to provide an excuse for not answering questions about her self-described efforts to interfere with the administration of justice in Mr. Pawlowski’s case? 

Hard to say. Easy for it to get lost in today’s election excitement. 

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8 Comments

  1. Re: TBA
    I think anyone so inclined should “out” the TBA-backed candidates as loudly as possible. I don’t want an anti-law, anti-public health, Christian Nationalist candidate to “sneak through.” Don’t let them get away with it, force the moderate conservative voters to see who it is they’re supporting. Where’d my picket sign stuff get to…

    Re: Chelsae Petrovic
    What she said about heart attack survivors is pretty heinous, but I’ve said similar things about smokers and ice climbers to friends. It makes me philosophical; I don’t intend to seek office anytime soon, personally, but I would be worried about social media from my 20’s being “sleuthed out” by opposition media to be used against me, if I was. At some point elected officials might need to reconcile or put aside previously-held positions or beliefs in order to represent their electorate. How to atone? I mean, I certainly hold DS responsible for all the recent stuff she’s said on her talk show, and that awful U of C policy statement from 2021, but at some point most people are capable of growth, maybe even conservative MLA candidates.

    1. After TBA swarming of UCP riding associations then the selection of a compliant trucker / rancher/farmer / puppet candidates, the ensuing vote rigging and voter harassment and obvious favoritism to get the TBA on the official ballot rather than banning T-shirts; I expected more to be made with United Convoy Party as a logo.
      Chelaes’ blanket apology won’t change her elite business owning/ ranch living/ politician status or her lack of compassion and understanding as a nurse or lack of understanding on any other level.
      She will however listen and serve her people . Have I mentioned the TBA swarming yet?
      Fun times. Be the first in your truck to get a UNITED CONVOY PARTY flag/ hat and shirt combo.

  2. Okay…now Drew Barnes has decided (NOW?!) that he’s not seeking re-election in his riding. He’s not revealing much about the reason for his decision, apart from the usual reasons (or excuses) about wanting to dedicate more time to whatever. Seeing Drew decide to back out of his political career does fill me with some loss. Barnes’ special brand of comic relief will be hard to find in anyone else.

    Meanwhile, Danielle Smith is sure taking her time in dropping the writ. Maybe this is — wouldn’t be great — all a ruse. Smith had no intention of calling an election on May 1st, or maybe even on May 2nd. She may even decide to sit back and wait … wait … wait … and then — PSYCH!!

    Yes, the adults left a long time ago and this is all that’s left.

  3. That’s a lot to unpack on the first official day of election campaigning, starting with the good omen of May 1 for the NDP.

    Next, we move on to Heritage Park making happy with Danielle Smith. Not even open for the season, and management thinks this is a good idea? What are they trying to do — kill the revenue stream, then sell the land to a UCP-friendly developer for condos? Pull a Dougie Ford, in other words?

    Speaking of TBA and its Coutts convoy connection, how’s Art Pawlowski? Say, isn’t his verdict due in Lethbridge court tomorrow?

    It’s kind of ironic that a nurse would blame patients for their heart conditions, but that nurse would be out of a job if nobody ever got sick or injured.

    Then there’s her non-apology-apology: “I want to apologize unreservedly for these actions and any hurt that I may have caused….moving forward, I will communicate in a way that is respectful.”
    In other words, she knows she was disrespectful, and said something that might have offended people, or will very soon, but will not name the offence or express genuine contrition. A blanket apology for everything past, present and future? Okey-dokey. Soon she will apologize for not be perfect, which is the crowning touch for any non-apology.

    We all knew nothing would come of the threatened CBC lawsuit, because you can’t sue someone for directly quoting you.

    This is going to be painful.

  4. David Coletto of Abacus Data and Jared Wesley, Garin Alfaro and Lauren Hill of Common Ground have some interesting thoughts on Albertans, their politics, and their opinions of the two contenders for premier (a.k.a. Queen) of Alberta.

    Common Ground found that, while people may label themselves as NDP or UPC, their attitudes often overlap in the centre. Ask them how they describe themselves and most folks pick some version of “progressive” or “moderate,” regardless of their preferred political party.

    It seems a lot of people here in Oilberduh are less tribal, less “us vs. them” than they appear. Partisan rhetoric is loud and obnoxious, but mostly comes from small groups in either camp. Most folks, even among declared UCP supporters, say they believe in “progressive” values (NDP 76%, Liberals only 43%, but UCP 51%; figure 15).
    https://cground.substack.com/p/political-polarization-in-alberta

    Abacus Data’s latest concentrates on the two leaders and how Albertans perceive them—and, through them, their parties. The party leaders are the most polarizing (and polarized) aspect, with each side thinking the Other Guys’ Leader can’t be trusted (probably has a hidden agenda!). But a large number of “I haven’t decided yet” voters trust Notley much more than they do Smith. Despite this, Mr. Coletto thinks the election is the UCP’s to lose—mostly because (he doesn’t put it quite this way) Albertans reflexively vote the Conservative ticket.
    https://davidcoletto.substack.com/p/d739b538-3811-494a-b81b-7261675cea6b

    Notley is perceived as the more trustworthy leader, while Smith–among non-UCP voters–is considered a loose cannon. As Don Martin put it, the risk for Danielle Smith is her own mouth.
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-in-the-battle-for-alberta-it-s-smith-versus-her-mouth-1.6373413

  5. Yes, Mayday! Or perhaps more appropriately, m’aider! [which can be interpreted multiple ways as required and as perspective and discernment permit].

    The old familiar academic hobgoblins, intellectuals, and ideological fellow travelers are still driving the same old bus [backwards] it seems as the radio talk show host offers up the usual, unoriginal financial inducements [where “tax-cut promises should be understood as a form of vote buying.” ]: “Danielle Smith, UCP launch Calgary campaign with big proposed income tax cut”

    And making the same type of lame promise: “When asked about how the province would pay for the proposed tax cut, Smith said that they would expect it to pay for itself with additional economic growth.”

    When the hype fails to deliver and the promises fall flat there is the typical dead silence from the usual suspects and the hope that all is forgotten as the political spin cycle moves into high gear once again.

    That is, for example: https://www.theenergymix.com/2022/10/06/no-new-jobs-came-from-albertas-4b-job-creation-tax-cut-for-big-oil/

    “Alberta Premier Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party (UCP) government said 55,000 new jobs would be created, offsetting a projected $2.4-billion loss in revenue, from its plan to cut the corporate tax rate from 12% in 2019 to 8% by 2022. But three years later, and with the 8% tax cut delivered two years ahead of schedule via Alberta’s Recovery Plan, Parkland says that the boon to the corporate sector enriched the coffers of the oil sands “Big Four,” even as provincial revenues tanked by twice the projected amount. And 3,452 oil sands workers have been given pink slips.”

    “The oil sands majors have been cutting jobs on the front lines, but CEOs and shareholders have remained very well compensated,” said report author Ian Hussey, research manager at Parkland. Digging into the details, he found the CEOs of the so-called “Big Four”—Suncor Energy, Canadian Natural Resource Ltd.,, Cenovus Energy, and Imperial Oil, which account for some 86% of Canada’s oil sands production—have been enjoying an average annual pay raise of $2.35 million since the UCP corporate tax rate changed. The policy shift that left the “Big Four” alone $4.3 billion richer.”

    Finally, Rana Foroohar, a CNN economic analyst and Financial Times columnist, [and many other economists would agree] states that “There’s no real evidence in the last 20 years that” growth from tax cuts has made up lost revenue.”

  6. What I’ve been saying for more than 20 years; ever since I met my first Albaturdans.
    “… it is quite possible many Albertans will not be aware of what they are voting for when they cast a ballot …”

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